Back to the actual future

The purpose of the paper is to rethink the role of actuality in the branching model of possibilities. We investigate the idea that the model should be enriched with an additional factor—the so-called Thin Red Line—which is supposed to represent the single possible course of events that gets actualized in time. We believe that this idea was often misconceived which prompted some unfortunate reactions. On the one hand, it suggested problematic semantic models of future tense and and on the other, it provoked questionable lines of criticism. We reassess the debate and point to potential pitfalls, focusing on the semantic dimension of the Thin Red Line theory. Our agenda transcends the semantics, however. We conclude that semantic considerations do not threaten the Thin Red Line theory and that the proper debate should be carried in the domain of metaphysics.

     

Patterns of adaptation to conflict and schizoid personality scale scores

A previous investigation gave no evidence of a significant relationship of patterns of adaptation to conflict, as measured with the Serial Color-Word Test, with the Schizoid Personality Scale of the Coolidge Axis II Inventory. As a new scoring algorithm has subsequently been proposed for the latter scale, a replication was done with the modified schizoid scale. A group of 75 consecutive nonpsychotic women outpatients was given the Serial Color-Word Test and Coolidge's inventory. Both multiple and logistic regressions selected two significant predictors of schizoid personality, corresponding to high values of linear change in reading times during Trials 3 and 5 of the Serial Color-Word Test, i.e., to an increasingly rigid and inflexible style of the adaptive process. A multivariate analysis of variance yielded an effect size of .22 (partial eta2).     

Towards a unified science of cultural evolution

We suggest that human culture exhibits key Darwinian evolutionary properties, and argue that the structure of a science of cultural evolution should share fundamental features with the structure of the science of biological evolution. This latter claim is tested by outlining the methods and approaches employed by the principal subdisciplines of evolutionary biology and assessing whether there is an existing or potential corresponding approach to the study of cultural evolution. Existing approaches within anthropology and archaeology demonstrate a good match with the macroevolutionary methods of systematics, paleobiology, and biogeography, whereas mathematical models derived from population genetics have been successfully developed to study cultural microevolution. Much potential exists for experimental simulations and field studies of cultural microevolution, where there are opportunities to borrow further methods and hypotheses from biology. Potential also exists for the cultural equivalent of molecular genetics in "social cognitive neuroscience," although many fundamental issues have yet to be resolved. It is argued that studying culture within a unifying evolutionary framework has the potential to integrate a number of separate disciplines within the social sciences.     

Reciprocal relations between adolescent substance use and delinquency: a longitudinal latent variable analysis

Reciprocal relations between self-reported substance use and delinquency were examined through the analysis of 4-wave panel data collected from 1,218 high school students. A longitudinal, latent-variable framework was used to investigate interrelationships between changing patterns of generalized involvement in these 2 problem behaviors, while simultaneously accounting for specificity in drug use (e.g., marijuana use) and delinquency (e.g., theft). Analyses revealed that a model of bidirectional effects between polysubstance use and general delinquency was plausible for boys but not for girls. For boys, the effect of delinquency on substance use was small but consistent over time, whereas the effect of substance use on delinquency was larger but restricted to the earlier waves of the study. Implications for the question of whether or not substance use and delinquency have causal connections are discussed.     

Combining dynamic systems and multivariate analyses to compare the mother-child interactions of externalizing subtypes

A dynamic systems analysis was conducted to distinguish the parent–child interactions of pure externalizing children from children comorbid for externalizing and internalizing problems. Thirty-three parents and clinically referred children (8–12 years old) discussed a problem for 4 min and then tried to wrap up in response to a signal (a perturbation). The perturbation was intended to increase the pressure on the dyad, triggering a reorganization of their behavioral system. We hypothesized that the comorbid group would be distinguished from the externalizing-only group as a result of this reorganization, but not before. The sequential data were analyzed using a combination of case-sensitive (state space grids and chi-square analyses) and group-based, multivariate techniques (log-linear modeling). Results revealed that externalizing dyads engaged in a permissive pattern throughout the problem-solving session, whereas comorbid dyads shifted from a permissive pattern to a mutually hostile pattern after the perturbation. These findings punctuate the need for a dynamic systems approach to the study of relationship processes associated with the development of childhood psychopathology. Theoretical and clinical implications are discussed.     

Exposure to suicide: incidence and association with suicidal ideation and behavior: United States, 1994

Exposure to the suicide of another is common, but the magnitude and effects of such exposure are not well quantified. From a national random telephone survey of U.S. adults, we estimated the 12-month incidence of exposure to suicide and its association with suicidal ideation, planning, and behavior. Of 5,238 respondents, 342 (a weighted 7.0% representing 13.2 million persons) reported knowing a suicide decedent from the previous year. Univariate analysis showed persons reporting such exposure were significantly more likely to describe suicidal ideation and behavior than those unexposed; multivariate analysis showed no association. Though the risk related to suicide exposure may be small, given the magnitude of exposure, it may warrant intervention efforts because of its potential societal impact.     

Editor's Introduction: Theory and Engagement in Bioethics

Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics -     

A Test of Three Alternative Hypotheses Regarding the Effects of Early Delinquency on Adolescent Psychosocial Functioning and Substance Involvement

This study compared alternative hypotheses (from general deviance, life course, and developmental psychopathology perspectives) regarding the effects of early adolescent delinquency on psychosocial functioning in family, school, and peer contexts, and on alcohol use. Analyses also examined parent-child negative affective quality, prosocial school orientation, and peer substance use as possible direct predictors of problem substance use. Participants in this longitudinal study, extending from age 11 to age 18, were 429 rural teens (222 girls) and their families. Path model comparisons supported the tenability of a partial mediation model that included mediating pathways and a direct effect of delinquency on alcohol use, as hypothesized by developmental psychopathology. A supplemental analysis controlling for the stability of the family, school, and peer variables revealed that delinquency had less pervasive direct effects on, and a nonsignificant indirect effect through, changes in the mediators over time. Results also showed that peer substance use was a direct positive predictor of problem use.