The propensity theory: a decision-theoretic restatement

Probability theory is important because of its relevance for decision making, which also means: its relevance for the single case. The propensity theory of objective probability, which addresses the single case, is subject to two problems: Humphreys’ problem of inverse probabilities and the problem of the reference class. The paper solves both problems by restating the propensity theory using (an objectivist version of) Pearl’s approach to causality and probability, and by applying a decision-theoretic perspective. Contrary to a widely held view, decision making on the basis of given propensities can proceed without a subjective-probability supplement to propensities.     

One-Sided Arguments

When is an argument to be called one-sided? When is putting forward such an argument fallacious? How can we develop a model for critical discussion, such that a fallaciously one-sided argument corresponds to a violation of a discussion rule? These issues are dealt with within ‘the limits of the dialogue model of argument’ by specifying a type of persuasion dialogue in which an arguer can offer complex arguments to anticipate particular responses by a critic.     

Electrophysiological and behavioral measures of the influence of literal and figurative contextual constraints on proverb comprehension

Proverbs tend to have meanings that are true both literally and figuratively (i.e., Lightning really doesn't strike the same place twice). Consequently, discourse contexts that invite a literal reading of a proverb should provide more conceptual overlap with the proverb, resulting in more rapid processing, than will contexts biased towards a non-literal reading. Despite this, previous research has failed to find the predicted processing advantage in reading times for familiar proverbs when presented in a literally biasing context. We investigate this issue further by employing both ERP methodology and a self-paced reading task and, second, by creating an item set that controls for problems with items employed in earlier studies. Our results indicate that although people do not take longer to read proverbs in the literally and proverbially biasing contexts, people have less difficulty integrating the statements in literal than figurative contexts, as shown by the ERP data. These differences emerge at the third word of the proverbs.     

A Polychoric Instrumental Variable (PIV) Estimator for Structural Equation Models with Categorical Variables

This paper presents a new polychoric instrumental variable (PIV) estimator to use in structural equation models (SEMs) with categorical observed variables. The PIV estimator is a generalization of Bollen’s (Psychometrika 61:109–121, 1996) 2SLS/IV estimator for continuous variables to categorical endogenous variables. We derive the PIV estimator and its asymptotic standard errors for the regression coefficients in the latent variable and measurement models. We also provide an estimator of the variance and covariance parameters of the model, asymptotic standard errors for these, and test statistics of overall model fit. We examine this estimator via an empirical study and also via a small simulation study. Our results illustrate the greater robustness of the PIV estimator to structural misspecifications than the system-wide estimators that are commonly applied in SEMs. Kenneth Bollen gratefully acknowledges support from NSF SES 0617276, NIDA 1-RO1-DA13148-01, and DA013148-05A2. Albert Maydeu-Olivares was supported by the Department of Universities, Research and Information Society (DURSI) of the Catalan Government, and by grant BSO2003-08507 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology. We thank Sharon Christ, John Hipp, and Shawn Bauldry for research assistance. The comments of the members of the Carolina Structural Equation Modeling (CSEM) group are greatly appreciated. An earlier version of this paper under a different title was presented by K. Bollen at the Psychometric Society Meetings, June, 2002, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.     

Psychological norms for simple three-line graphic shapes

There is a longstanding tradition in psychological research for norming lists of words that are used in experimental studies. The present study extends this practice to graphic imagery by obtaining norming data on 24 simple abstract graphic shapes composed of three straight-line segments. The attributes obtained in the norming procedure were the shapes' familiarity, describability, associability, availability, and potential for word association. Results from rating data indicate significantly different, yet reliable, responses by participants to the various shape configurations. Multidimensional scaling analysis of shape ratings identified two underlying dimensions of perceived differences: the continuity of a shape's linear direction and the consistency or regularity of its interior angles. By contrast, performance in generating word associations for figures appeared to be linguistically driven, with initial responses related to the similarity of shapes to letters of the alphabet. The norms and the computer program used to collect them can be downloaded from www.psychonomic.org/archive.     

Memory transfer for emotionally valenced words between identities in dissociative identity disorder

The present study aimed to determine interidentity retrieval of emotionally valenced words in dissociative identity disorder (DID). Twenty-two DID patients participated together with 25 normal controls and 25 controls instructed to simulate DID. Two wordlists A and B were constructed including neutral, positive and negative material. List A was shown to one identity, while list B was shown to another identity claiming total amnesia for the words learned by the first identity. The identity claiming amnesia was tested for intrusions from list A words into the recall of words from list B and recognition of the words learned by both identities. Test results indicated no evidence of total interidentity amnesia for emotionally valenced material in DID. It is argued that dissociative amnesia in DID may more adequately be described as a disturbance in meta-memory functioning instead of an actual retrieval inability.     

IQ heritability estimation: analyzing genetically-informative data with structural equation models

When analyzing genetic data, Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) provides a straightforward methodology to decompose phenotypic variance using a model-based approach. Furthermore, several models can be easily implemented, tested, and compared using SEM, allowing the researcher to obtain valuable information about the sources of variability. This methodology is briefly described and applied to re-analyze a Spanish set of IQ data using the biometric ACE model. In summary, we report heritability estimates that are consistent with those of previous studies and support substantial genetic contribution to phenotypic IQ; around 40% of the variance can be attributable to it. With regard to the environmental contribution, shared environment accounts for 50% of the variance, and non-shared environment accounts for the remaining 10%. These results are discussed in the text.     

Psychometric evaluation of the Brazelton Scale in a sample of Spanish newborns

This study analyses the data obtained from a sample of 220 healthy full-term neonates evaluated with the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale, NBAS, 3rd edition. Standard scores were obtained for each of the 35 behavioral items and analysis of the main components of all the clusters was performed. Similarly to the original scale, the five following factors were obtained: Autonomic and Motor Systems, Habituation, State Organization, State Regulation, and Social Interactive. The analysis of the reliability of these groupings reveals that it is between moderate and high (the average Cronbach's alpha coefficient was .78).     

The influence of visual experience on visual and spatial imagery

Differences are reported between blind and sighted participants on a visual-imagery and a spatial-imagery task, but not on an auditory-imagery task. For the visual-imagery task, participants had to compare object forms on the basis of a (verbally presented) object name. In the spatial-imagery task, they had to compare angular differences on the basis of the position of clock hands on two clock faces, again only on the basis of verbally presented clock times. Interestingly, there was a difference between early-blind and late-blind participants on the visual-imagery and the spatial-imagery tasks: late-blind participants made more errors than sighted people on the visual-imagery task, while early-blind participants made more errors than sighted people on the spatial-imagery task. This difference suggests that, for visual (form) imagery, people use the channel currently available (haptic for the blind; visual for the sighted). For the spatial-imagery task in this study reliance on haptic processing did not seem to suffice, and people benefited from visual experience and ability. However, the difference on the spatial-imagery task between early-blind and sighted people in this study might also be caused by differences in experience with the analogue clock faces that formed the basis for the spatial judgments.