Gödelian time-travel and anthropic cosmology

This paper looks at Kurt Gödel's causally‐pathological cosmological models (derived from general relativity), in the light of anthropic explanations. If a Gödelian world is a possible world, could anthropic reasoning shed any light on whether or not our world is Gödelian? This paper argues that while there are some good anthropic reasons why our world ought to be Gödelian, too many observations suggest that our world can’t possibly be Gödelian in fact. If Gödel's world is a possible one, anthropic teleology alone cannot explain why it isn’t the world we inhabit. Furthermore, if our world were Gödelian, anthropic arguments against the existence of extraterrestrial intelligences would imply a bleak human future. En route, some general objections to relativistic causal pathologies are addressed and some anthropic arguments to the effect that Gödelian worlds couldn’t sustain life are also addressed and dismissed.     

Decision-making under uncertainty: biases and Bayesians

Animals (including humans) often face circumstances in which the best choice of action is not certain. Environmental cues may be ambiguous, and choices may be risky. This paper reviews the theoretical side of decision-making under uncertainty, particularly with regard to unknown risk (ambiguity). We use simple models to show that, irrespective of pay-offs, whether it is optimal to bias probability estimates depends upon how those estimates have been generated. In particular, if estimates have been calculated in a Bayesian framework with a sensible prior, it is best to use unbiased estimates. We review the extent of evidence for and against viewing animals (including humans) as Bayesian decision-makers. We pay particular attention to the Ellsberg Paradox, a classic result from experimental economics, in which human subjects appear to deviate from optimal decision-making by demonstrating an apparent aversion to ambiguity in a choice between two options with equal expected rewards. The paradox initially seems to be an example where decision-making estimates are biased relative to the Bayesian optimum. We discuss the extent to which the Bayesian paradigm might be applied to the evolution of decision-makers and how the Ellsberg Paradox may, with a deeper understanding, be resolved.     

Local-global processing in early-onset schizophrenia: evidence for an impairment in shifting the spatial scale of attention

In this study we report the results of two experiments on visual attention conducted with patients with early-onset schizophrenia. These experiments investigated the effect of irrelevant spatial-scale information upon the processing of relevant spatial-scale information, and the ability to shift the spatial scale of attention, across consecutive trials, between different levels of the hierarchical stimulus. Twelve patients with early-onset schizophrenia and matched controls performed local-global tasks under: (1) directed attention conditions with a consistency manipulation and (2) divided-attention conditions. In the directed-attention paradigm, the early-onset patients exhibited the normal patterns of global advantage and interference, and were not unduly affected by the consistency manipulation. Under divided-attention conditions, however, the early-onset patients exhibited a local-processing deficit. The source of this local processing deficit lay in the prolonged reaction time to local targets, when these had been preceded by a global target, but not when preceded by a local target. These findings suggest an impaired ability to shift the spatial scale of attention from a global to a local spatial scale in early-onset schizophrenia.     

Test-Retest Measurement Invariance of Clinic Referred Children’s ADHD Symptoms

This study examined the test-retest measurement invariance of ratings of the ADHD symptoms. Mothers of a group of 217 clinic-referred children (boys?=?169, girls?=?49; age range?=?7 to 17 years) completed ratings of the ADHD symptoms presented in a modified version of the Strengths and Weaknesses of ADHD-Symptoms and Normal Behavior Scale (SWAN-M) twice, 12 months apart. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of their ratings at both time points provided more support for the bifactor model of ADHD [orthogonal general and specific factors for inattention (IA) and hyperactivity/impulsivity (HI) symptoms] over the 2-factor oblique model (factors for inattention IA and HI symptoms). For the bifactor model, measurement invariance testing using multiple-group CFA indicated support for configural and full scalar test-retest invariance when the chi-square difference test was applied. For metric invariance, all but one symptom showed invariance. When the differences in approximate fit indices were applied, there was support for full measurement invariance (configural, metric and scalar). The findings indicate that observed scores (based on maternal ratings of the SWAM-M), twelve months apart, are comparable as they have the same measurement properties. Several practical, theoretical, research and clinical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Areas of Interest as a Signal Detection Problem in Behavioral Eye‐Tracking Research

Decision researchers frequently analyze attention to individual objects to test hypotheses about underlying cognitive processes. Generally, fixations are assigned to objects using a method known as area of interest (AOI). Ideally, an AOI includes all fixations belonging to an object while fixations to other objects are excluded. Unfortunately, due to measurement inaccuracy and insufficient distance between objects, the distributions of fixations to objects may overlap, resulting in a signal detection problem. If the AOI is to include all fixations to an object, it will also likely include fixations belonging to other objects (false positives). In a survey, we find that many researchers report testing multiple AOI sizes when performing analyses, presumably trying to balance the proportion of true and false positive fixations. To test whether AOI size influences the measurement of object attention and conclusions drawn about cognitive processes, we reanalyze four published studies and conduct a fifth tailored to our purpose. We find that in studies in which we expected overlapping fixation distributions, analyses benefited from smaller AOI sizes (0° visual angle margin). In studies where we expected no overlap, analyses benefited from larger AOI sizes (>.5° visual angle margins). We conclude with a guideline for the use of AOIs in behavioral eye‐tracking research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Religion in the UK: An Overview of Equality Statistics and Evidence Gaps

Social survey data is essential to measuring equality, for the assessment of change over time, and to the evaluation of the impact of new policies. In this article we have identified and evaluated the statistical data and evidence on religion in the UK in relation to key policy areas, such as employment, housing, health, education, and criminal justice. For each data source, we consider definitions, data collection, coverage of issues, sample size, and data access. We examine the multi-faceted nature of religion and consider the links between religious and ethnic identities. We also outline models that can link religious identity to equality outcomes (and hence potentially allow the measurement of discrimination) and identify the evidence gaps. The UK has one of the most religiously diverse populations in the European Union, both in terms of diversity within Christianity and between different world religions. However, while religion is increasingly recognised, in both legal and policy terms, as an important equality issue, the data on the dynamics of religion in the UK are limited. The inclusion of a new question on religion in the 2001 Census in England, Scotland, and Wales is a major new source of data, but data are limited regarding the role and significance of religion in people's everyday lives, particularly among ethnic minority populations. It is clear that there is a need for a far more comprehensive and rounded approach to data on religion in the UK, which takes account of its multi-dimensional nature.     

Children's Depression Inventory: invariance across children and adolescents with and without depressive disorders

In the study, the authors examined the measurement (configural, factor loadings, thresholds, and error variances) and structural (factor variances, covariances, and mean scores) invariance of the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI; Kovacs, 1992) across ratings provided by clinic-referred children and adolescents with (N = 383) and without (N = 412) depressive disorders. Multiple-group confirmatory factor analysis of the Craighead, Smucker, Craighead, and Ilardi (1998) CDI model supported full measurement invariance and invariance for structural variances and covariances. Invariance for thresholds was also supported by multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) procedures that controlled for the effects of age; sex; and the presence or absence of anxiety disorders, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and oppositional defiant/conduct disorders. The MIMIC analyses showed that for latent mean scores, the group with depressive disorders had higher scores, with at least medium effect sizes, for Self-Deprecation and Biological Dysregulation. The theoretical, psychometric, and clinical implications of the findings are discussed.