Citations of Murray Sidman's work in JEAB: Evidence of a long and large contribution

We examined citations of Murray Sidman's publications in the Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior from the journal's inception in 1958 through May 2020. On average, he was cited 35.6 times per year. The rate of citation did not change substantially across time and the cumulative citation count was 2,212. His 10 publications cited most often deal with behavior-analytic research methods, stimulus equivalence, and unsignaled free-operant (or Sidman) avoidance. Our data provide clear evidence of the breadth and depth of Sidman's influence on the experimental analysis of behavior across 7 decades. His contributions were both exceptional and praiseworthy and his legacy will long endure.     

Single-case experimental designs: Characteristics,changes, and challenges

Tactics of Scientific Research (Sidman, 1960) provides a visionary treatise on single-case designs, their scientific underpinnings, and their critical role in understanding behavior. Since the foundational base was provided, single-case designs have proliferated especially in areas of application where they have been used to evaluate interventions with an extraordinary range of clients, settings, and target foci. This article highlights core features of single-case experimental designs, how key and ancillary features of the designs have evolved, the special strengths of the designs, and challenges that have impeded their integration in many areas where their contributions are sorely needed. The article ends by placing the methodological approach in the context of other research traditions. In this way, the discussion moves from the specific designs toward foundations and philosophy of science issues in keeping with the strengths of the person and book we are honoring.     

Hans Reichenbach,radio philosopher: a preliminary report

Synthese - This essay looks at some of the key aspects of Hans Reichenbach’s career as a radio engineer, broadcaster, and producer. It argues that some of the themes of Reichenbach’s...     

Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal Synechism: A Peircean Philosophy of Time

Axiomathes - Charles Sanders Peirce is best known as the founder of pragmatism, but the name that he preferred for his overall system of thought was “synechism” because the principle of...     

The Impact of Integrated Behavioral Healthcare on Glycemic Control

Integrated behavioral healthcare (IBH) is the “standard of care” to address psychosocial factors impacting diabetes outcomes; it is not standard in practice. This longitudinal, retrospective, chart-review examines IBH impact on glycemic control in an adult diabetes clinic. Adults (n?=?374) with?≥?1 behavioral health encounter,?≥?2 hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) values, and HbA1c value?>?8% at initial IBH visit were included. Mixed effects linear piecewise models examined differences in slope trajectories for 365 days pre- and post-IBH intervention. Pre-intervention slope was not significant (z?=?? 1.09, p?=?0.28). The post-intervention slope was significant (z?=?? 6.44, p?<?0.001), indicating a significant linear decrease in HbA1c values. Results demonstrated that prior to engaging with behavioral health, there was no change in HbA1c. After initial IBH visit, there was a predicted reduction of?>?1% in HbA1c over the following year. These results suggest that IBH significantly improves patients’ metabolic status. Next steps for IBH research are offered.

     

The role of career adaptabilities for mid-career changers

Career adaptability is mediated by personality factors and socio-psychological processes, with learning playing an important role. Using a five-fold career adapt-abilities competency framework (defined here as control, curiosity, commitment, confidence and concern), which was developed from the international quantitative study that is the focus of this special edition, an explicitly qualitative study of the career biographies of mid-career changers from two European countries was undertaken. Data from 64 in-depth interviews with adults in contrasting labor markets from Norway and the UK were analysed deductively, using a career adapt-abilities framework. Results demonstrate the utility of the framework, as well as how adaptive adults used both formal and informal learning to develop career adapt-ability competencies, over time, across occupations and occupational sectors. A key conclusion relates to how this career adapt-abilities competency framework could be used to motivate adults in mid-career to adopt behaviors that help them effect positive career change.     

Traditional and proposed tests of slope homogeneity for non-normal and heteroscedastic data

The purpose of this study was to develop and compare tests of independent groups' slopes for non-normal distributions and heteroscedastic variances, including slope tests based on least squares, Theil-Sen, and trimmed estimation approaches. A slope test based on jackknife standard error estimates is proposed that can utilize each of the traditional estimation methods while also addressing problematic aspects of methods' standard error estimates. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed jackknife-based slope tests can improve standard error estimation, Type I error, and power relative to the traditional slope tests.     

Implicit race bias revisited: On the utility of task context in assessing implicit attitude strength

Decades of research have shown that many people harbor implicit attitudes that are positive toward Whites relative to Blacks. With some notable exceptions, these findings are almost always obtained using implicit attitude tasks that assess attitudes toward Whites and Black simultaneously. This makes it difficult to determine whether implicit race bias effects are the result of strong liking for Whites, dislike for Blacks, or both. The present article reports results from a study in which participants' automatic bias towards Blacks and Whites is assessed across multiple evaluative contexts. Results show consistent negative automatic attitudes towards Blacks, but there was considerable variability in participants' attitudes toward Whites. Consistent with the idea that strong attitudes are less contextually sensitive than weaker attitudes (e.g. Krosnick, 1988), it is concluded that participants harbor strong automatic bias against Blacks, but not strong favoritism for Whites. Implications for a context-centered approach to implicit attitude measurement are discussed.