Betting on transitivity in probabilistic causal chains

Causal reasoning is crucial to people’s decision making in probabilistic environments. It may rely directly on data about covariation between variables (correspondence) or on inferences based on reasonable constraints if larger causal models are constructed based on local relations (coherence). For causal chains an often assumed constraint is transitivity. For probabilistic causal relations, mismatches between such transitive inferences and direct empirical evidence may lead to distortions of empirical evidence. Previous work has shown that people may use the generative local causal relations A → B and B → C to infer a positive indirect relation between events A and C, despite data showing that these events are actually independent (von Sydow et al. in Proceedings of the thirty-first annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2009, Proceedings of the 32nd annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2010, Mem Cogn 44(3):469–487, 2016). Here we used a sequential learning scenario to investigate how transitive reasoning in intransitive situations with negatively related distal events may relate to betting behavior. In three experiments participants bet as if they were influenced by a transitivity assumption, even when the data strongly contradicted transitivity.     

Testing Event-Based Forms of Causality

Three fundamental types of causal relations are those of necessity, sufficiency, and necessity and sufficiency. These types are defined in contexts of categorical variables or events. Using statement calculus or Boolean algebra, one can determine which patterns of events are in support of a particular form of causal relation. In this article, we approach the analysis of these forms of causality taking the perspective of the analyst of empirical data. It is proposed using Configural Frequency Analysis (CFA) to test hypotheses about type of causal relation. Models are proposed for two-variable and multi-variable cases. Two CFA approaches are proposed. In the first, individual patterns (configurations) are examined under the question whether they are in support of a particular type of causal relation. In the second, patterns that are in support are compared with corresponding patterns that are not in support. In an empirical example, hypotheses are tested on the prediction of sustainability of change in dietary fat intake habits.     

Stereotype-based faultlines and out-group derogation in diverse teams: The moderating roles of task stereotypicality and need for cognition

Alignment of individuals on more than one diversity attribute (i.e., faultlines) may lead to intergroup biases in teams, disrupting the efficiency expectancies. Research has yet to examine if this can be a consequence of a stereotypical consistency between social and information attributes of diversity. The present study tests the hypothesis that, in a team with a stereotype-based faultline (a stereotypical consistency between gender and skills), there is increased out-group derogation compared to a team with a stereotype-inconsistent faultline. Furthermore, the study proposes that tasks can activate stereotypes, and the need for cognition dictates whether stereotypes are applied. The findings confirm the hypothesis and additionally provide evidence that tasks that activate gender stereotypes emphasize out-group derogation, especially for team members with low need for cognition.     

Within-culture variation in the content of stereotypes: Application and development of the stereotype content model in an Eastern European culture

There is little and unsystematic evidence about whether the content of stereotypes can vary within a culture. Using the Stereotype Content Model (SCM) as a theoretical framework, in two studies we examined the content of stereotypes in an Eastern European culture, namely Romania. Data were collected from four regions prototypical in terms of economic and social development in Romania, and we examined whether the content of stereotypes varies across these regions. As expected, the findings confirm the applicability of the SCM in Romania to reveal culture-specific stereotypes and provide initial support for within-culture variation in the content of stereotypes. We discuss, in particular, possible reasons for two main findings: a strong one-dimensional structure of stereotypes, and regional differences in stereotype content.     

How Indirect Questioning Techniques May Promote Democracy: A Preelection Polling Experiment

Socially desirable responding may cause differences between preelection polls and election outcomes. Bias-free preelection polls are, however, important because they influence election outcomes. Benefiting from a unique opportunity, we experimentally controlled social desirability using the Crosswise Model in a poll prior to the German federal election in 2013. We found that due to strategic voting, outcome expectations were related to voting intentions; the election outcome was therefore likely distorted by social desirability bias in preelection polls. We recommend using indirect questioning techniques whenever a vote for at least one of the competing parties may be perceived as socially undesirable.     

Planting the seeds of change: Directionality in the narrative construction of recovery from addiction

Objective: The dominant theoretical perspective that guides treatment evaluations in addiction assumes linearity in the relationship between treatment and outcomes, viewing behaviour change as a ‘before and after event’. In this study we aim to examine how the direction of the trajectory of the process from addiction to recovery is constructed in personal narratives of active and recovering users.

Design: 21 life stories from individuals at different stages of recovery and active use were collected and analysed following the principles of narrative analysis.

Results: Personal trajectories were constructed in discontinuous, non-linear and long lasting patterns of repeated, and interchangeable, episodes of relapse and abstinence. Relapse appeared to be described as an integral part of a learning process through which knowledge leading to recovery was gradually obtained.

Conclusion: The findings show that long-term recovery is represented as being preceded by periods of discontinuity before change is stabilised. Such periods are presented to be lasting longer than most short-term pre-post intervention designs can capture and suggest the need to rethink how change is defined and measured.     

The Effect of Sexual Programme Content on the Recall of Foreign Sexual and Non‐sexual Advertisements

This study explored the effect of programme content (sexual and non‐sexual) on the recall of sexual and non‐sexual advertisements. Seventy‐eight participants were allocated randomly to four different groups and viewed either a sexual or non‐sexual programme with either sexual or non‐sexual advertisements placed within. Free recall and cued recall of the advertisements were assessed. The sexual content of programmes impaired advertisement recall, for both free recall and cued recall. Furthermore, advertisements that were of a sexual nature were remembered better than neutral advertisements. There was also an interaction between advertisement type and gender; women remembered more sexual than non‐sexual advertisements, but this was not the case for men. Finally, there was an interaction between programme type and gender, with a marked tendency for men to recall fewer advertisements embedded in the sexual programme than women. Limitations and implications of this research are discussed.Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gender Specificity of Children’s Narrative Representations in Predicting Depressive Symptoms at Early School Age

Our longitudinal study contributes to the body of literature on depression in childhood by examining potential protective factors. We investigated the influence of maternal depressive symptoms on child depressive symptoms at early school age and its gender-specific moderation by children’s narrative representations of the maternal figure, over and above children’s own depressive symptoms at preschool age. Children’s narrative representations were assessed using the MacArthur Story Stem Battery in 170 preschool children (92 girls; 54.1?%) oversampled for internalizing symptoms. Children’s depressive symptoms were assessed at preschool age (Time 1; 4–6 years) and at early school age (Time 2; 6–8 years) by maternal report; mothers’ depressive symptoms were assessed at Time 1. The results showed that for boys, only their own depressive symptoms at Time 1 predicted their depressive symptoms at Time 2. For girls, maternal depressive symptoms were a significant risk factor for their own depressive symptoms at Time 2. Regarding this association, we also found a moderation effect: girls with more positive narrative representations of the maternal figure showed a reduced negative impact of maternal depressive symptoms on their own depressive symptoms at Time 2. This implies that clinical practice should screen a child for early depressive symptoms, especially if the mother displays depressive symptoms. Clinicians might also assess children’s inner working models, which can serve as a protective factor.     

Parents’ Reports of Children’s Internalizing Symptoms: Associations with Parents’ Mental Health Symptoms and Substance Use Disorder

This brief report examined the unique associations between parents’ ratings of child internalizing symptoms and their own depression and anxiety in families with parental substance use disorder (SUD). Further, we examined whether parental SUD (father only, mother only, both parents) was related to discrepancy in mothers’ and fathers’ reports of children’s internalizing symptoms. Participants were 97 triads (fathers, mothers) in which one or both parents met criteria for SUD. Polynomial regression analyses were conducted to examine whether father-mother reports of child internalizing symptoms had unique associations with parents’ own symptoms of depression and anxiety while controlling for child gender, child age, and SUD diagnoses. Controlling for fathers’ symptoms and other covariates, mothers experiencing more depression and anxiety symptoms reported more symptoms of child internalizing symptoms than did fathers. Mothers’ and fathers’ SUD was associated with higher anxiety symptoms among mothers after controlling for other variables. A second set of polynomial regressions examined whether father-mother reports of child internalizing symptoms had unique associations with parents’ SUD diagnoses while controlling for child gender and child age. After controlling for mothers’ symptoms and other covariates, parents’ reports of children’s internalizing symptoms were not significantly associated with either parent’s SUD or parental SUD interactions (i.e., both parents have SUD diagnoses). Taken together, mothers’ ratings of children’s internalizing symptoms may be accounted for, in part, by her reports of depression and anxiety symptoms.