Domain Knowledge and Hindsight Bias among Poker Players

Hindsight bias occurs when individuals believe that events were more predictable after they have occurred than they actually were before they occurred. Although hindsight bias is a well‐studied phenomenon, few studies have examined the role of expertise in this bias. Two experiments investigated the relation between the magnitude of hindsight bias and self‐reported poker expertise (Experiment 1) and assessed poker knowledge (Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, self‐rated poker expertise was negatively correlated with hindsight bias. Experiment 2 employed memory and hypothetical hindsight conditions and found that poker knowledge was negatively correlated with hindsight bias in the memory condition, but unrelated to hindsight bias in the hypothetical condition. These results help elucidate the role of expertise in hindsight bias and provide additional support for the separate components view, which claims there are different forms of hindsight bias that are differentially affected by certain factors. Domain knowledge appears to be one of such factors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlates of condom use and condom‐use motivation among young South Africans

A survey of South African secondary school students aged 12–17 years (n = 893) included measures designed to investigate relationships between beliefs about HIV/AIDS, condom use, interpersonal relationships, and two dependent measures: motivation to use condoms and reported condom use. We predicted that motivation would be an important correlate of reported condom use and that traditional cultural beliefs included in social cognition models would predict condom use motivation. Hierarchical multiple regression showed that 10% of the variance in reported condom use was accounted for by condom use motivation and age. Condom self‐efficacy, beliefs about condoms and injunctive norms accounted for much of the variance. Other beliefs included susceptibility to HIV and attribution of HIV to asexual sources such as witchcraft indicating that an expanded model of modifiable cognitions may be optimal when designing HIV interventions among young South Africans.     

CEO Ideational Facilitation Leadership and Team Creativity: The Mediating Role of Knowledge Sharing

The development of new ventures is often based on collective creative efforts. We conceptualize team creativity as a process of looking for and exploring new solutions and examine whether and how CEO leadership fosters creativity in top management teams (TMT). Data collected from senior executive teams indicate that CEO ideational facilitation leadership is positively related to team knowledge sharing, which in turn results in enhanced team exploratory behaviors. These findings bear important theoretical implications for ways in which leaders can enhance creativity in teams and augment the entrepreneurial direction of executive teams.     

Anomalous ductile-brittle fracture behaviour in fcc crystals

The fracture behaviour of fcc crystals has been investigated by numerically simulating the dynamical failure of a three-dimensional notched crystal using molecular dynamics, simple interatomic potentials for a rare-gas solid and system sizes of about ten million atoms. We find that the solid fails by brittle cleavage for cracking on a {110} face growing in a [110]direction and by ductile plasticity for cracking on a {111} face growing in a [110]direction. Comparison of equilibrium surface energies on the crack face and Schmid factors on the primary slip systems indicates that the classical theories of fracture give predictions in contradiction with the simulation results. A hyperelasticity model is proposed to explain this discrepancy. This anomalous fracture behaviour of fcc crystals has a profound implication on general modelling of dynamic failure of solids.     

How much behaviour change should we expect from health promotion campaigns targeting cognitions? An approach to pre-intervention assessment

For those planning interventions based on social cognition models, it is usually not clear what impact on behaviour will follow from attempts to change the cognitions specified in these models. We describe a statistical simulation technique to assess the likely impact of health promotion targeting Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA)-based predictors of condom use. We apply regression-based simulation techniques to data from the SHARE project (n?=?756 Scottish adolescents) to assess the potential impact of changes in cognitions on condom use. Results support the predictive utility of TRA-based models of psychological antecedents of condom use but also provide a cautionary warning about the magnitude of behaviour change likely to be achieved by interventions based on such models.     

Exploring teenagers' adaptive and maladaptive thinking in relation to the threat of hiv infection

Abstract

Teenagers' HIV-preventive cognitions were explored within a protection motivation theory framework. Five hundred and seven adolescent men and women from two cohorts (sixteen and eighteen) completed a confidential postal questionnaire. The effect of demographic variables, previous sexual experience and appraisal of threat and coping resources upon HIV-relevant cognitions was investigated using path analysis. Cognitions promoting (adaptive) and inhibiting (maladaptive) preventive behaviour were considered. Anticipated condom use, intention to limit number of sexual partners and willingness to consider an HIV antibody test were included as adaptive HIV-preventive cognitions. Coping appraisal measures were strongly associated with anticipated condom use but threat appraisal measures were not. Gender, previous sexual experience, coping appraisal measures and denial accounted for 33% of the variance in anticipated condom use. Overall the results provided qualified support for Protection Motivation Theory. Implications for health education are highlighted.     

Follow-up effects of social comparison information on the quality of life of cancer patients: The moderating role of social comparison orientation

Objective: To examine how social comparison orientation (SCO) moderates the effects of three types of social comparison information on the global quality of life of cancer patients 2 weeks and 3 months later. Design: Cancer patients (n?=?226) were provided with social comparison information just prior to undergoing radiation therapy, using audiotapes. Each participant was confronted with one of three tapes: (1) focusing on procedural aspects, (2) focusing on emotional reactions and (3) focusing on coping strategies. Main outcome measures: Quality of life as measured with the Cantril self-anchoring scale [Cantril, H. (1965). The pattern of human concerns. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press]. Results: With increasing SCO, a lower quality of life was reported after listening to the emotion tape, while a higher quality of life was reported after listening to the coping tape. These effects were found 2 weeks as well as 3 months after the radiation therapy had ended. Conclusion: Social comparison information may have longitudinal effects on quality of life, but these effects are to an important extent dependent on the nature of the information and individual differences in SCO.