Order of Information Affects Clinical Judgment

Family practice physicians read a case vignette describing a patient with a history of lung cancer, a new transient neurological disturbance, and a normal computerized tomographic (CT) scan of the head. They then estimated the probabilities of two diagnoses: transient ischemic attack (TIA) and brain tumor. Probability estimates of TIA were lower if the history of lung cancer was presented at the end of the case rather than at the beginning. This recency effect was found for both more and less experienced physicians and whether subjects were prompted for a single end-of-sequence probability judgment or multiple step-by-step judgments after each piece of information. These results are inconsistent with Hogarth and Einhorn's (1992) belief-adjustment model, which predicts a recency effect for the step-by-step condition but a primacy effect for the end-of-sequence condition.     

COSMOPOLITANISM AND HUMAN RIGHTS: RADICALISM IN A GLOBAL AGE

Abstract: The cosmopolitan imagination constructs a world order in which the idea of human rights is an operative principle of justice. Does it also construct an idealisation of human rights? The radicality of Enlightenment cosmopolitanism, as developed by Kant, lay in its analysis of the roots of organised violence in the modern world and its visionary programme for changing the world. Today, the temptation that faces the cosmopolitan imagination is to turn itself into an endorsement of the existing order of human rights without a corresponding critical analysis of the roots of contemporary violence. Is the critical idealism associated with Kantian cosmopolitanism at risk of transmutation into an uncritical positivism? We find two prevailing approaches: either the constitutional framework of the existing world order is presented as the realisation of the cosmopolitan vision, or cosmopolitanism is turned into a utopian vision of a world order in which power is subordinated to the rule of international law. I suggest that the difficulties associated with both wings of cosmopolitanism threaten the legitimacy of the project and call for an understanding and culture of human rights that is less exclusively "conceptual" and more firmly grounded in social theory.     

The Value of Truth and the Care of the Soul

Although the argument against the neo-Darwinian theory of evolution presented by Stephen R. L. Clark in From Athens to Jerusalem is based upon sound principles, it fails to provide an a priori refutation. If it did work, it would refute all objective scientific theories, since all of them make consciousness and subjectivity, as Clark characterises them, incomprehensible. Scientism, the thesis that science is the only source of truth, is Clark's real target, rather than science per se, but he does not diagnose this error as it is made by authors such as Jacques Monod and Richard Dawkins. Scientism is not essential to materialism in general, and a successful version of 'supervenience-materialism'could avoid both reductionism and scientism. However, Clark still has a reply. He may use his discussion of the value of truth to provide a more general critique of materialism, which in my view is far more effective.