Hindsight bias: An interaction of automatic and motivational factors?

If subjects are asked to recollect a former response after having been informed about the correct response, their recollection tends to approach the correct response. This effect has been termedhindsight bias. We studied hindsight bias in an experiment requiring numerical responses to almanac-type questions for physical quantities. We varied (1) the time at which the correct information was provided, (2) the encoding of the original responses by asking/not asking subjects to give a reason for the respective response, and (3) the motivation to recall correctly. We found that hindsight is less biased if reasons are given and if the correct information is provided at an earlier time. Motivation had only interactive effects: (1) With high motivation to recall correctly, the time the correct information was provided had no influence. (2) With reasons given, the variation of motivation showed no effect. These results rule out purely motivational and purely automatic explanations.     

The perception of an optical flow projected on the ground surface

In most experiments in which the importance of visual control on postural stability is studied, optical stimuli attached to vertical surfaces are used. Analyses of long-term standing readjustments generally involve back-and-forth movements of a visual scene or its projection on vertical circular screens. In a natural environment, however, visual information is largely available from the ground. The aim of the experiment reported was to assess the effect of a flow pattern simulating an open outdoor setting on motion perception and postural control. Subjects were presented with an optical texture projected onto the ground. Periods of motionless texture alternated with equivalent durations of unidirectional flows. The change of position of the subject's centre of gravity over time was recorded on a force platform. Results show that the direction of body sway corresponded with that of texture motion. Important aftereffects, as shown in linear vection experiments, were also observed. However, the latency of postural responses was much shorter than with prolonged unidirectional flows produced in other locations of the visual environment. The hypothesis of an ecological specificity of the flows perceived on the ground during terrestrial displacements is discussed.     

Interactions between area and numerosity

Summary The concept of filled area, i.e. the impressionistic ensemble of parts of a stimulus field occupied by dots, is used to account for various kinds of numerosity illusions due to perceptual interaction between a number of dots and their spatial arrangement. A measure of filled area is derived from a model for the perceptual clustering of dots on the basis of relative proximity. It is shown that the quantified concept of filled area successfully predicts illusion data from earlier studies. Subsequently, a two-alternatives forced-choice numerosity experiment is reported, the data of which gave further evidence of the predictive power of the filled-area hypothesis. Our approach is discussed with respect to spatial features of dot stimuli that might be in rivalry with the filled-area factor in numerosity-estimation tasks.     

The use of prediction data in understanding delinquency

Predicting delinquency is valuable for understanding the course of crime, factors that influence its course, and the identification of markers that signal deviant processes. In addition, prediction data are relevant for judicial and clinical decision making. This article summarizes research findings on the prediction of delinquency. In the realm of early childhood behaviors, there is consensus that aggression (especially in conjunction with hyperactivity), drug use, truancy, lying, stealing, general problem behaviors, and poor educational achievement all predict later delinquency, albeit to varying degrees, with composite prediction scales yielding the highest degree of accuracy. In addition, studies show a reasonable consensus that the following family factors also predict delinquency: poor supervision, lack of involvement by parents, poor discipline, rejection by a parent, parental criminality and aggressiveness, marital problems, parental absence, and poor parental health. Variables reflecting socialization processes predicted later delinquency as well as children's early behavior. Although studied less frequently, youngsters' association with deviant peers is also predictive of delinquency.