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1.
In hisStudy of War, Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of warP during a period ofn crises, and proposed the equationP=1–(1–p)
n
, wherep is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi-Revilla (1987), using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the n-crises problem as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli's St. Petersburg Paradox as an analogue, the other based on the logic of conditional probabilities. Analysis shows that, while Wright's solution is robust with regard to the general overall behavior ofp andn, some significant qualitative and quantitative differences emerge from the alternative solutions. In particular,P converges to 1 only in a special case (Wright's) and not generally.C.C.-R. acknowledges support provided by the Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research, the Research Board of the University of Illinois, and grant SES-84-00877 from the U.S. National Science Foundation. 相似文献
2.
Luis Fernando Bernardi Junqueira 《Journal of the history of the behavioral sciences》2023,59(2):193-216
How did a new science initially promoted by only a few individuals eventually become a widespread cultural phenomenon practiced and known by thousands of people? Following a transnational approach, this article traces the introduction of psychical research into China during the first two decades of the 20th century. Known in the Republican period (1912–1949) as Spiritual Science (xinling kexue or xinling yanjiu), psychical research flourished between the 1920s and 1930s, playing a key role in the popularization of applied psychology and mind-cure across China. This article takes a step back from the heyday of Spiritual Science by looking at the period that immediately preceded and helped define it. Focused on wide-circulation newspapers, popular manuals, and stage performances, it teases out the ways in which Chinese popular culture translated European, American, and Japanese psychical research to local Chinese audiences in the midst of China's search for modernity. By naturalizing the reality of psychic powers, spiritual scientists blurred the boundaries between science and superstition in a period when these were posited as diametrically opposed. 相似文献
3.
Guilherme Borges Francisco Garrido Víctor Crdenas Jorge Ibarra Jos Luis Bobadilla 《Journal of community & applied social psychology》1993,3(1):17-27
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of maternal and paternal alcohol consumption as independent risk factors in postneonatal mortality. Questions on the frequency and quantity of alcoholic drinks consumed were included in a questionnaire used as part of a case-control study. Over a period of 11 months the families of 157 cases and 468 controls, matched for age and locality, were interviewed. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained by matched univariate analysis and by multiple conditional logistic regression. Maternal consumption during pregnancy, maternal consumption during breastfeeding and maternal consumption in the past year were not risk factors for postneonatal mortality. A multiple matched analysis did not alter these results. Matched univariate analysis of paternal alcohol consumption gave several positive results, including variables pertaining to the father's consumption in a multiple logistic regression model with traditional risk factors, which revealed that the frequency of paternal consumption in the last year, as estimated by the mother, was found to have a significant effect on postneonatal mortality. 相似文献
4.
The paper studies the relation between systems of modal logic and systems of consequential implication, a non-material form of implication satisfying Aristotle's Thesis (p does not imply not p ) and Weak Boethius' Thesis (if p implies q, then p does not imply not q ). Definitions are given of consequential implication in terms of modal operators and of modal operators in terms of consequential implication. The modal equivalent of Strong Boethius' Thesis (that p implies q implies that p does not imply not q) is identified. 相似文献
5.
The relationship of locus of control to depression, anxiety, hostility, and physical health was assessed in a sample of multicultural
college students (N = 162). Powerful Others Health Locus of Control was correlated with depression, anxiety, hostility, and
recent physical symptoms while Chance Health Locus of Control (CHLC) was correlated with all of the above as well as chronic
physical symptoms and major health problems. When controlling for a variety of health risk factors (viz., age, sex, body mass,
exercise, smoking, salt, alcohol, and caffeine), only CHLC remained significant in the physical health models. Results support
the cognitive model of mental health which emphasize the importance of adaptive beliefs. Specifically, they suggest that issues
about control are related to negative affect and indicate that the often-cited relationship of an external locus of control
to depression and anxiety also holds for hostility. The findings do not, however, support the view that anxiety and depression
are associated with different types of external locus of control but rather suggest a unified set of locus of control beliefs
underlying the three types of negative affect. In addition, evidence is provided for the external validity of the Multidimensional
Health Locus of Control (MHLC) Scales with respect to mental health. Further, the results indicate that belief about one’s
health may play a significant role in one’s physical health and that the health behavior model of the relationship between
locus of control and physical health is insufficient to explain the relationship. As the Chance and Powerful Others MHLC scales
were not related to health habits in this sample but were related to mental health (viz., depression, anxiety, and hostility),
locus of control beliefs may be related to physical health via their relationship with mental health. 相似文献
6.
7.
By using the Patricia Hearst case as the stimulus material, two experiments were conducted to examine the relationship between authoritarianism and recall of evidence. In Experiment I it was found that high authoritarians recall more prosecution evidence than defense evidence. This was not the case for the low authoritarians. Results concerning the hypothesis that high authoritarians would recall more character information than low authoritarians were equivocal. In Experiment II a trend indicating that high authoritarians draw more direct inferences from incriminating evidence than do low authoritarians or an attorney was obtained. The results are discussed in terms of previous findings, authoritarian theory, and characteristics of the Patricia Hearst case. 相似文献
8.
A 39-year-old male presenting with a 5 year history of excessive urinary frequency and urgency was treated first with scheduling of urination, use of external urinary catheter and progressive muscular relaxation and then with a urinary retention training procedure. After the first set of procedures, urinary frequency decreased, whereas urgency increased slightly. After completion of retention training, both symptoms were alleviated. Overall, urinary frequency decreased from a baseline average of 14 urinations daily to a post-treatment average of 6.5 urinations per day. Urinary urgency decreased from a baseline average of 35 urges per day to a post-treatment average of 9.3 urges per day. Gains were maintained at 3 and 5 month follow-up. 相似文献
9.
A sample of 77 subjects responded to a questionnaire designed to collect information about their perceptions of the role of school psychologists. The results indicate that overall the respondents had a fairly accurate sense of what a school psychologist does, although they overestimated the importance of psychotherapy as one of the school psychologist's functions. It is recommended that school psychologists more clearly specify their function when dealing with members of the general public. 相似文献
10.
Luis M. Laosa 《Journal of applied developmental psychology》1982,3(3):217-245
Two studies are reported that independently examined the psychometric characteristics of children's performance on the Preschool Inventory. The sample in Study I consisted of 100 Chicano children tested longitudinally at ages and 4 years. The sample in Study II consisted of 200 Chicano and non-Hispanic White children matched on mothers' schooling level in a cross-sectional design involving two age levels—prekindergarten-age children and children enrolled in kindergarten. Comparisons were made by ethnic group, sex, and age level with regard to item characteristics, internal-consistency reliabilities, test—retest stability, standard errors of measurement, validity, and performance level. Comparisons also were made between the psychometric characteristics of the Chicano children's performance on the Preschool Inventory and the psychometric characteristics reportedly by other investigators for the same instrument administered to children of other ethnic, socioeconomic, and sociolinguistic backgrounds. The results provide impressive evidence of the Preschool Inventory's psychometric strengths and demonstrate that the examined psychometric characteristics of the Preschool Inventory are as exemplary when the test is administered to Chicano children as they are exemplary when it is administered to children of other ethnic backgrounds. Certain limitations of the Preschool Inventory are identified. Recommendations are made regarding possible avenues for future test development efforts. 相似文献