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Ola Svenson Gabriella Eriksson Ilkka Salo Ellen Peters 《Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour》2011,14(6):504-511
How are driving speeds integrated when speeds vary along a route? In a first study, we examined heuristic processes used in judgments of mean speed when the mean speeds on parts of the trip varied. The judgments deviated systematically from objective mean speeds because the distances driven at different speeds were given more weight than travel time spent on the different distances. The second study showed that when there was a 10–15 min pause during a travel the effect on the mean speed decrease was underestimated for driving speeds of 90 km/h and higher. In the third study, the objective mean speeds and the subjective biased mean speed judgments were used to predict choices between routes with different speed limits. The results showed that subjective judgments predicted decisions to maximize mean speed significantly better than objective mean speeds. Finally, some applied and basic research implications of the results were discussed. 相似文献
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Ilkka Niiniluoto 《Synthese》1972,25(1-2):25-81
In 1958, to refute the argument known as the theoretician's dilemma, Hempel suggested that theoretical terms might be logically indispensable for inductive systematization of observational statements. This thesis, in some form or another, has later been supported by Scheffler, Lehrer, and Tuomela, and opposed by Bohnert, Hooker, Stegmüller, and Cornman. In this paper, a critical survey of this discussion is given. Several different putative definitions of the crucial notion inductive systematization achieved by a theory are discussed by reference to the properties of inductive inference. The consequences of the following differences between deductive and inductive inference are emphasized: the lack of simple transitivity properties (even in a modified sense) of inductive inference, and the failure of the inductive analogue of the converse of The Deduction Theorem. The main conclusions are: (i) Hempel's original thesis may very well be right but his argument for it is unsatisfactory, (ii) theoretical terms can be logically indispensable for a non-Hempelian kind of inductive systematization, relative to both Craigian and Ramseyan elimination, (iii) Lehrer's attempt to prove the indispensability of theoretical terms for inductive-probabilistic systematization is, as a modification of Hempelian kind of inductive-deterministic systematization, unsatisfactory, and (iv) there does not seem to be much hope of escaping the conclusion (ii), if it is true, by extending the Craigian replacement programme along the lines suggested by Cornman.The work for this paper was initiated in a research group supported by The Emil Aaltonen Foundation (Emil Aaltosen Säätiö). I am greatly indebted to Professor Raimo Tuomela for many discussions concerning the subject-matter of this paper and earlier drafts of it. 相似文献
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Ilkka Niiniluoto 《Erkenntnis》2011,75(2):165-181
Belief revision (BR) and truthlikeness (TL) emerged independently as two research programmes in formal methodology in the
1970s. A natural way of connecting BR and TL is to ask under what conditions the revision of a belief system by new input
information leads the system towards the truth. It turns out that, for the AGM model of belief revision, the only safe case
is the expansion of true beliefs by true input, but this is not very interesting or realistic as a model of theory change
in science. The new accounts of non-prioritized belief revision do not seem more promising in this respect, and the alternative
BR account of updating by imaging leads to other problems. Still, positive results about increasing truthlikeness by belief
revision may be sought by restricting attention to special kinds of theories. Another approach is to link truthlikeness to
epistemic matters by an estimation function which calculates expected degrees of truthlikeness relative to evidence. Then
we can study how the expected truthlikeness of a theory changes when probabilities are revised by conditionalization or imaging.
Again, we can ask under what conditions such changes lead our best theories towards the truth. 相似文献
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Ilkka Niiniluoto 《Synthese》1994,101(2):291-300
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