跨期决策的神经机制：基于体素形态学和弥散张量成像研究的证据

目前神经经济学的首要目标是探讨人们经济决策背后的认知机制和神经基础。随着脑成像技术的发展, 人们对于脑结构和功能的认识也越来越深入。跨期决策作为经济决策领域的一个重要分支, 对其理解可以丰富决策的理论内容。首先, 梳理了关于跨期决策神经机制研究, 阐述了跨期决策的四种理论, 分别为单一评价理论(single-valuation theory)、双评价理论(dual-valuation theory)、自我控制理论(self-control theory)和自我参照加工理论(self-referential processing theory), 以及脑损伤研究证据。其次, 分别整理了基于体素形态学和弥散张量成像技术在跨期决策领域中的应用, 并揭示前额叶灰质和白质体积以及背外侧前额叶-纹状体神经纤维连接对于决策冲动性的影响。最后, 未来研究需要注意其在研究方法、认知过程、决策冲动性评估模型上的创新与突破。     

Applying prospect theory to pilot weather-related decision-making: The impact of monetary and time considerations on risk taking behaviour

One of the key findings of prospect theory is that people tend to treat potential gains differently to potential losses. Consistent with earlier findings across a range of areas, pilots were risk averse when faced with an uncertain situation involving monetary gains and risk seeking when faced with a monetary loss. Prospect theory has largely been used to explore monetary decision-making; however, “time” is potentially a more important consideration for pilots than money. For example, how much time can be flown with the current fuel onboard. It was found that pilots' decision behaviour changed when faced with a decision involving time, with pilots risk averse for both a time gain and a time loss situation. Pilots appeared to prefer to know precisely the time required for a journey, rather than take a gamble on a potential short cut. Evidence also suggests pilots were more likely to take risks in situations that they perceive they have more control over (e.g. air traffic delays) compared to dynamic weather-related events. There was some evidence to suggest pilots do not consider a decision in terms of an end state, but rather in terms of losses and gains from their current state. The final part of the study found evidence that it may be possible to predict pilot risk taking behaviour using self-report decision frames.     

Goal-directed decision making as probabilistic inference: a computational framework and potential neural correlates

Recent work has given rise to the view that reward-based decision making is governed by two key controllers: a habit system, which stores stimulus-response associations shaped by past reward, and a goal-oriented system that selects actions based on their anticipated outcomes. The current literature provides a rich body of computational theory addressing habit formation, centering on temporal-difference learning mechanisms. Less progress has been made toward formalizing the processes involved in goal-directed decision making. We draw on recent work in cognitive neuroscience, animal conditioning, cognitive and developmental psychology, and machine learning to outline a new theory of goal-directed decision making. Our basic proposal is that the brain, within an identifiable network of cortical and subcortical structures, implements a probabilistic generative model of reward, and that goal-directed decision making is effected through Bayesian inversion of this model. We present a set of simulations implementing the account, which address benchmark behavioral and neuroscientific findings, and give rise to a set of testable predictions. We also discuss the relationship between the proposed framework and other models of decision making, including recent models of perceptual choice, to which our theory bears a direct connection.     

Multiattribute Decision Making in Context: A Dynamic Neural Network Methodology

A theoretical structure for multiattribute decision making is presented, based on a dynamical system for interactions in a neural network incorporating affective and rational variables. This enables modeling of problems that elude two prevailing economic decision theories: subjective expected utility theory and prospect theory. The network is unlike some that fit economic data by choosing optimal weights or coefficients within a predetermined mathematical framework. Rather, the framework itself is based on principles used elsewhere to model many other cognitive and behavioral data, in a manner approximating how humans perform behavioral functions. Different, interconnected modules within the network encode (a) attributes of objects among which choices are made, (b) object categories, (c) and goals of the decision maker. An example is utilized to simulate the actual consumer choice between old and new versions of Coca-Cola. Potential applications are also discussed to market decisions involving negotiations between participants, such as international petroleum traders.     

主观价值计算与整合的神经机制及其影响因素

决策在人类社会发展的历程中扮演着非常重要的作用,而对其神经机制的探讨才不过几十年的时间。基于价值的决策理论,强调人们首先计算和表征事物的价值,随后比较和决策。在人脑中负责主观价值计算的神经基础有腹内侧前额叶皮层、眶额皮层以及其他脑区,而负责价值整合的脑区有腹内侧前额叶皮层、眶额皮层、背外侧前额叶皮层等。其中时间和风险的价值计算有着相同的神经基础,并且人脑可以将不同属性以及成本进行整合形成主观价值,按照曲线交互作用范式进行。通过自我控制、注意和认知调节等方法,同样可以调制人们的主观价值大小。未来需要继续强调模式分析、个体差异、老龄化和基因对价值计算的影响。     

If it's not left, it's right. Electroencephalograph asymmetry and the development of emotion

Recent studies suggest that an initial component involving stimulus evaluation may precede subsequent steps in the generation of emotion. This article presents a model for the development of emotion that involves an initial decision of approach or withdrawal, which results in motor programs, including facial expression, that facilitate either approach or withdrawal. With development, more complex emotions arise, as products of these basic initial responses and interaction with the environment. Evidence is presented that suggests that there are brain asymmetries (as measured by scalp recorded EEG activity) localized to the frontal region that are associated with the generation of emotion in infants. Variability in the pattern of EEG asymmetry between infants may be an important marker of differences in temperament.     

价值观的神经机制:另一种研究视角

神经机制分析是价值观研究的一种新视角.内稳态机制和情绪反应的固有模式可能体现出价值观的神经生物原型.社会认知神经科学试图从子价值观、价值取向、价值观结构等方面寻找价值观的神经实体证据,也对价值评价、价值决策等相关过程进行了神经活动分析.初步发现了个体价值观与部分脑区活动的相关关系,涉及前额叶-顶叶-颞叶神经网络带的众多大脑结构.未来研究可沿循静态的价值观结构和动态的价值观加工过程两条线路,整合和完善现有分散的神经生理研究,将有助于更系统地理解价值观的神经机制.     

A Range-Frequency Explanation of Shifting Reference Points in Risky Decision Making

An integration of range-frequency theory, a theory of psychophysical judgment, and prospect theory, a theory of choice behavior under risk, is proposed. A critical assumption of prospect theory is that the reference point, which helps govern the riskiness of choice behavior, is modeled after Helson′s (1964) adaptation level notion. It is proposed that range-frequency theory provides a better representation of the reference point and, thus, can be used to understand with greater precision the judgment of outcomes as gains or losses and the perceived riskiness of subsequent decisions. A computer-based decision task was performed using 199 graduate and undergraduate students. Hypotheses concerning range and frequency effects on the reference point were fully supported. The judgment hypotheses were generally supported under gains, but received inconsistent support under losses. Range and frequency effects on choice were consistent with predictions under both gains and losses with one exception. Implications of this work for previous and future research involving prospect theory are discussed.     

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.     

Do Politicians Take Risks Like the Rest of Us? An Experimental Test of Prospect Theory Under MPs

Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision‐making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply to political decision‐makers, or are politicians unlike the rest of us? (2) Which dimension do politicians use as their reference point when there are multiple dimensions (e.g., votes and policy)? We address both problems in an experiment with a unique sample of Dutch members of parliament as participants. We use well‐known (incentivized) decision situations and newly developed hypothetical political decision‐making scenarios. Our results indicate that politicians’ deviate from expected utility theory in the direction predicted by prospect theory but that these deviations are somewhat smaller than those of other people. Votes appear to be a more important determinant of politicians’ reference point than is policy.     

An alternative explanation for cross-cultural differences in the expression of psychopathy

Multicultural research has shown that rates of psychopathy differ between North America and Europe. Many suggestions have been given to help explain this divergence, including: cultural factors, migration, and inter-rater effects. However, past research has not explored the possibility that samples may be inherently different independent of a cultural factor. This paper explores the prospect of multicultural samples differing due to effects of the legal system. Research suggests that incarceration policies may affect the percentage of psychopaths in the prison systems, where the majority of psychopathy research takes place. Future research and policy implications are discussed to further explore this possibility.     

Criticisms of the criminal justice system: A decision making analysis

When a decision making analysis is applied to key decisions within the criminal justice system, e.g., bail, sentencing, and plea bargaining, a wide range of evidence suggests that the decision makers believe they follow policies other than those that actually guide their decisions; that the policies that are followed are often simple ones, involving only a few decision factors; and that the decision outcomes are often assigned to defendants in a reasonable manner but that, even so, the outcomes are often ineffective. Because many proposals for the reform of the criminal justice system are based on the testimony of decision makers and “experts” whose knowledge of the system is often flawed, it is unlikely that reforms will have a beneficial impact on criminal behavior until much more is known about the day-to-day decisions of judges, prosecutors, and probation officers.     

Adult Age Differences in Dual Information Processes: Implications for the Role of Affective and Deliberative Processes in Older Adults' Decision Making

ABSTRACT— Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for judgment and decision theory and important pragmatic implications for older-adult decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age. However, age-related adaptive processes, including motivated selectivity in the use of deliberative capacity, an increased focus on emotional goals, and greater experience, predict better or worse decisions for older adults depending on the situation. The aim of the current review is to examine adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes in order to understand their potential impact on judgments and decisions. We review evidence for the role of these dual processes in judgment and decision making and then review two representative life-span perspectives (based on aging-related changes to cognitive or motivational processes) on the interplay between these processes. We present relevant predictions for older-adult decisions and make note of contradictions and gaps that currently exist in the literature. Finally, we review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and how theories and findings regarding dual processes could be applied to decision theory and decision aiding. In particular, we focus on prospect theory ( Kahneman & Tversky, 1979 ) and how prospect theory and theories regarding age differences in information processing can inform one another.     

Constraints on decision making: Implications from genetics, personality, and addiction

An influential neurocomputational theory of the biological mechanisms of decision making, the “basal ganglia go/no-go model,” holds that individual variability in decision making is determined by differences in the makeup of a striatal system for approach and avoidance learning. The model has been tested empirically with the probabilistic selection task (PST), which determines whether individuals learn better from positive or negative feedback. In accordance with the model, in the present study we examined whether an individual’s ability to learn from positive and negative reinforcement can be predicted by genetic factors related to the midbrain dopamine system. We also asked whether psychiatric and personality factors related to substance dependence and dopamine affect PST performance. Although we found characteristics that predicted individual differences in approach versus avoidance learning, these observations were qualified by additional findings that appear inconsistent with the predictions of the go/no-go model. These results highlight a need for future research to validate the PST as a measure of basal ganglia reward learning.     

Personality,cognition, and university students' examination performance

A prospective study explored the relationship between personality traits (as defined by the five factor model), type of motivation (as defined by self‐determination theory), and goal‐specific cognitions (including those specified by the theory of planned behaviour) as antecedents of degree performance amongst undergraduate students. A sample of 125 students completed a questionnaire two to three months before their final examinations. Structural equation modelling was used to explore relationships. Intention and perceived behavioural control explained 32% of the variance in final degree marks, with intention being the strongest predictor. Controlling for theory of planned behaviour variables, anticipated regret, good‐student identity, controlled extrinsic motivation, Conscientiousness, and Openness had direct significant effects on intention. In total, 65% of the variance in intention was explained. The resultant model illustrates how personality traits may affect examination performance by means of mediators such as intention, anticipated regret, student identity, and autonomous intrinsic motivation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Value, pleasure and choice in the ventral prefrontal cortex

Rapid advances have recently been made in understanding how value-based decision-making processes are implemented in the brain. We integrate neuroeconomic and computational approaches with evidence on the neural correlates of value and experienced pleasure to describe how systems for valuation and decision-making are organized in the prefrontal cortex of humans and other primates. We show that the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal (VMPFC) cortices compute expected value, reward outcome and experienced pleasure for different stimuli on a common value scale. Attractor networks in VMPFC area 10 then implement categorical decision processes that transform value signals into a choice between the values, thereby guiding action. This synthesis of findings across fields provides a unifying perspective for the study of decision-making processes in the brain.     

A mathematical approach for establishing treatment priorities among patients

Medical decision making often utilizes subjective observations to arrive at concrete judgments. The decisions frequently affect who receives scarce medical treatments and, thus, who lives or dies. In this paper, a model health status index is described. It is specific for the problem of choosing patients for hemodialysis or transplantation. Such a health status index may be designed for any medical decision involving such issues as drug treatment priorities, identification of salvageable patients, and selection of patients for scarce medical treatment. This index (1) incorporates a physician's own medical criteria and values, (2) can be modified as the data base improves, (3) assures consistency from decision to decision, and (4) can be developed and used without the help of a mathematician or computer.     

An application of the stress-diathesis model: A review about the association between smoking tobacco,smoking cessation,and mental health

BackgroundWorldwide, approximately 24% of all adults smoke, but smoking is up to twice as prevalent in people with mental ill-health. There is growing evidence that smoking may be a causal risk factor in the development of mental illness, and that smoking cessation leads to improved mental health.MethodsIn this scholarly review we have: (1) used a modern adaptation of the Bradford-Hill criteria to bolster the argument that smoking could cause mental ill-health and that smoking cessation could reverse these effects, and (2) by considering psychological, biological, and environmental factors, we have structured the evidence to-date into a stress-diathesis model.ResultsOur model suggests that smoking is a psychobiological stressor, but that the magnitude of this effect is mediated and modulated by the individual's diathesis to develop mental ill-health and other vulnerability and protective factors. We explore biological mechanisms that underpin the model, such as tobacco induced damage to neurological systems and oxidative stress pathways. Furthermore, we discuss evidence indicating that it is likely that these systems repair after smoking cessation, leading to better mental health.ConclusionBased on a large body of literature including experimental, observational, and novel causal inference studies, there is consistent evidence showing that smoking can negatively affect the brain and mental health, and that smoking cessation could reverse the mental ill-health caused by smoking. Our model suggests that smoking prevention and treatment strategies have a role in preventing and treating mental illness as well as physical illness.     

Go big or go home: Risk seeking for experiential choices

In decision making under risk, do consumers evaluate intangible, experiential options in a choice set in the same way they evaluate tangible, material options? Prior research on prospect theory, typically using either monetary or material objects as choice options, demonstrates that consumers are risk averse for choices involving gains, with a fairly robust tendency to favor a more certain outcome even when that outcome is less desirable. The present research focuses on decision making under risk for experiential options (from movies to concert tickets to hotel stays)—identifying choices between experiential options as a realm in which prospect theory's pattern of risk aversion is weakened and sometimes reversed. Across six studies, this research demonstrates that consumers are more risk seeking for experiential choices and thus more likely to prefer more desirable options, even options that are less certain. Further, the stronger personal connection fostered by experiential (vs. material) choice options mediates risk‐seeking preferences. This work demonstrates a moderator for prospect theory and investigates the tendency toward increased risk seeking among experiential options, in this paper termed a “go big or go home” strategy. Conversely, consistent risk aversion is evidenced for choices involving material options (from clothing to accessories and furniture).