When distance pays off: The role of construal level in spending predictions

Self predictions are often optimistically biased, even for recurrent events. People could generate more realistic predictions by using information about past experiences, however they tend to disregard this cognitive approach. Drawing on Construal Level Theory, we propose that increases in construal level facilitate the use of information from past experience, and thereby increase prediction accuracy. This proposal was tested in two studies examining predictions of personal spending. Consistent with the hypotheses, individuals induced to construe the prediction target at a higher level of abstraction generated more accurate predictions (Study 1) and the effect of increased construal level on prediction was attributable to a greater reliance on past experience (Studies 1 and 2). The findings indicate that high-level construal can sometimes benefit prediction accuracy.     

The perils of tweaking: how to use macrodata to set parameters in complex simulation models

When can macroscopic data about a system be used to set parameters in a microfoundational simulation? We examine the epistemic viability of tweaking parameter values to generate a better fit between the outcome of a simulation and the available observational data. We restrict our focus to microfoundational simulations—those simulations that attempt to replicate the macrobehavior of a target system by modeling interactions between microentities. We argue that tweaking can be effective but that there are two central risks. First, tweaking risks overfitting the simulation to the data and thus compromising predictive accuracy; and second, it risks compromising the microfoundationality of the simulation. We evaluate standard responses to tweaking and propose strategies to guard against these risks.     

The use of configural frequency analysis for explorative data analysis

Configural frequency analysis (CFA) is a widely used method of explorative data analysis. It tries to detect patterns in the data that occur significantly more or significantly less often than expected by chance. Patterns which occur more often than expected by chance are called CFA types, while those which occur less often than expected by chance are called CFA antitypes. The patterns detected are used to generate knowledge about the mechanisms underlying the data. We investigate the ability of CFA to detect adequate types and antitypes in a number of simulation studies. The basic idea of these studies is to predefine sets of types and antitypes and a mechanism which uses them to create a simulated data set. This simulated data set is then analysed with CFA and the detected types and antitypes are compared to the predefined ones. The predefined types and antitypes together with the method to generate the data are called a data generation model. The results of the simulation studies show that CFA can be used in quite different research contexts to detect structural dependencies in observed data. In addition, we can learn from these simulation studies how much data is necessary to enable CFA to reconstruct the predefined types and antitypes with sufficient accuracy. For one of the data generation models investigated, implicitly underlying knowledge space theory, it was shown that zero‐order CFA can be used to reconstruct the predefined types (which can be interpreted in this context as knowledge states) with sufficient accuracy. Theoretical considerations show that first‐order CFA cannot be used for this data generation model. Thus, it is wrong to consider first‐order CFA, as is done in many publications, as the standard or even only method of CFA.     

Personality profiles and the prediction of categorical personality disorders

Personality disorders (PDs) are usually construed as psychiatric categories characterized by a unique configuration of traits and behaviors. To generate clinical hypotheses from normal personality trait scores, profile agreement statistics can be calculated using a prototypical personality profile for each PD. Multimethod data from 1,909 psychiatric patients in the People's Republic of China were used to examine the accuracy of such hypotheses in the Interpretive Report of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. Profile agreement indices from both self-reports and spouse ratings were significantly related to PD symptom scores derived from questionnaires and clinical interviews. However, accuracy of diagnostic classification was only modest to moderate, probably because PDs are not discrete categorical entities. Together with other literature, these data suggest that the current categorical system should be replaced by a more comprehensive system of personality traits and personality-related problems.     

Spatial problem solving: The integration of independently learned cognitive maps

The process of mentally integrating separate regions of a layout into a unified representation is a critical component in generating inferred spatial information. Blindfolded subjects learned two different paths by tactual exploration. The subjects were then given information that permitted them to integrate the two cognitive maps of the paths into one map. In Experiment I, the speed and accuracy of originally learned and inferred movements within a path were equivalent, whereas inferred movements between the two paths were significantly slower and less accurate. In Experiment 2, the subjects could request additional training on the paths before they were given the integration information, and they also rated how well they knew the path on which they were tested. When the subjects judged that they remembered all or most of the path information, movements between two paths and within one path were performed with the same accuracy. The equivalent accuracy of all the movements suggests that cognitive integration can generate an accurate representation of an integrated layout when the path information is recalled.     

Regulation of memory accuracy with multiple answers: the plurality option

We report two experiments that investigated the regulation of memory accuracy with a new regulatory mechanism: the plurality option. This mechanism is closely related to the grain-size option but involves control over the number of alternatives contained in an answer rather than the quantitative boundaries of a single answer. Participants were presented with a slideshow depicting a robbery (Experiment 1) or a murder (Experiment 2), and their memory was tested with five-alternative multiple-choice questions. For each question, participants were asked to generate two answers: a single answer consisting of one alternative and a plural answer consisting of the single answer and two other alternatives. Each answer was rated for confidence (Experiment 1) or for the likelihood of being correct (Experiment 2), and one of the answers was selected for reporting. Results showed that participants used the plurality option to regulate accuracy, selecting single answers when their accuracy and confidence were high, but opting for plural answers when they were low. Although accuracy was higher for selected plural than for selected single answers, the opposite pattern was evident for confidence or likelihood ratings. This dissociation between confidence and accuracy for selected answers was the result of marked overconfidence in single answers coupled with underconfidence in plural answers. We hypothesize that these results can be attributed to overly dichotomous metacognitive beliefs about personal knowledge states that cause subjective confidence to be extreme.     

The Use of Prescanning in the Parameterization of Sequential Pointing and Reaching Movements

The accuracy of reaching movements improves when active gaze can be used to fixate on targets. The advantage of free gaze has been attributed to the use of ocular proprioception or efference signals for online control. The time course of this process, however, is not established, and it is unclear how far in advance gaze can move and still be used to parameterize subsequent movements. In this experiment, the authors considered the advantage of prescanning targets for both pointing and reaching movements. The authors manipulated the visual information and examined the extent to which prescanning of targets could compensate for a reduction in online visual feedback. In comparison with a conventional reaching/pointing condition, the error in pointing was reduced, the eye-hand lead decreased, and both the hand-closure time and the size of the maximum grip aperture in reaching were modulated when prescanning was allowed. These results indicate that briefly prescanning multiple targets just prior to the movement allows the refinement of subsequent hand movements that yields an improvement in accuracy. This study therefore provides additional evidence that the coordinate information arising from efference or ocular-proprioceptive signals can, for a limited period, be buffered and later used to generate a sequence of movements.     

Some standard errors in item response theory

The mathematics required to calculate the asymptotic standard errors of the parameters of three commonly used logistic item response models is described and used to generate values for some common situations. It is shown that the maximum likelihood estimation of a lower asymptote can wreak havoc with the accuracy of estimation of a location parameter, indicating that if one needs to have accurate estimates of location parameters (say for purposes of test linking/equating or computerized adaptive testing) the sample sizes required for acceptable accuracy may be unattainable in most applications. It is suggested that other estimation methods be used if the three parameter model is applied in these situations.The research reported here was supported, in part, by contract #F41689-81-6-0012 from the Air Force Human Resources Laboratory to McFann-Gray & Associates, Benjamin A. Fairbank, Jr., Principal Investigator. Further support of Wainer's effort was supplied by the Educational Testing Service, Program Statistics Research Project.     

The use of prescanning in the parameterization of sequential pointing and reaching movements

The accuracy of reaching movements improves when active gaze can be used to fixate on targets. The advantage of free gaze has been attributed to the use of ocular proprioception or efference signals for online control. The time course of this process, however, is not established, and it is unclear how far in advance gaze can move and still be used to parameterize subsequent movements. In this experiment, the authors considered the advantage of prescanning targets for both pointing and reaching movements. The authors manipulated the visual information and examined the extent to which prescanning of targets could compensate for a reduction in online visual feedback. In comparison with a conventional reaching/pointing condition, the error in pointing was reduced, the eye-hand lead decreased, and both the hand-closure time and the size of the maximum grip aperture in reaching were modulated when prescanning was allowed. These results indicate that briefly prescanning multiple targets just prior to the movement allows the refinement of subsequent hand movements that yields an improvement in accuracy. This study therefore provides additional evidence that the coordinate information arising from efference or ocular-proprioceptive signals can, for a limited period, be buffered and later used to generate a sequence of movements.     

The attentional cost of inattentional blindness

When our attention is engaged in a visual task, we can be blind to events which would otherwise not be missed. In three experiments, 97 out of the 165 observers performing a visual attention task failed to notice an unexpected, irrelevant object moving across the display. Surprisingly, this object significantly lowered accuracy in the primary task when, and only when, it failed to reach awareness. We suggest that an unexpected stimulus causes a state of alert that would normally generate an attentional shift; if this response is prevented by an attention-consuming task, a portion of the attentional resources remains allocated to the object. Such a portion is large enough to disturb performance, but not so large that the object can be recognized as task-irrelevant and accordingly ignored. Our findings have one counterintuitive implication: irrelevant stimuli might hamper some types of performance only when perceived subliminally.     

The Influences of Performance Cues and Observational Focus on Performance Rating Accuracy1

The present study examined the effects of observational focus and performance cues on rating accuracy. It was hypothesized that these two factors would affect ratings independently: a) subjects given a good performance cue would rate the target more positively than subjects given a poor performance cue and, b) subjects using an event focus would rate the target person more accurately than subjects using a person focus. One hundred twenty undergraduates viewed the same videotape and subsequently stated which of a set of 48 behaviors were exhibited by the target person. The results supported the hypothesized performance cue effect. Observational focus did not have the hypothesized main effect on rating accuracy but was involved in a four-way interaction. The interaction indicated that, as the focus of the subject's attention broadened to the entire event, the errors associated with the performance cue effect were lessened. The subjects using an event focus were likely to generate ratings characterized by a positivity bias, whereas those using a person focus were more likely to generate ratings biased by performance cues.     

Effects of model-based and memory-based processing on speed and accuracy of grammar string generation

Learners are able to use 2 different types of knowledge to perform a skill. One type is a conscious mental model, and the other is based on memories of instances. The authors conducted 3 experiments that manipulated training conditions designed to affect the availability of 1 or both types of knowledge about an artificial grammar. Participants were tested for both speed and accuracy of their ability to generate letter sequences. Results indicate that model-based training leads to slow accurate responding. Memory-based training leads to fast, less accurate responding and highest achievement when perfect accuracy was not required. Evidence supports participants' preference for using the memory-based mode when exposed to both types of training. Finally, the accuracy contributed by model-based training declined over a retention interval.     

Associative priming in perceptual identification: Effects of prime-processing requirements

Three experiments assessed the effects of prime-processing instructions on associative-priming in word identification and episodic memory for primes. In Experiment 1, groups instructed to read the prime silently or generate silently an associate of the prime showed a larger accuracy benefit for related over unrelated targets than did a group that decided whether an asterisk was to the right or left of the prime. The asterisk-search group showed a weaker repetition effect on a subsequent identification test of primes, indicating that the weaker priming in this group was a result of poorer perceptual processing. On a cued-recall test for primes, the generate group was superior to the other groups. In Experiment 2, we found that with weak prime-target associations, priming was comparable for read and generate groups and stronger than estimated for a guessing strategy, on the basis of single predictions made from each prime by an additional group. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that the read and generate instructions produced similar mispriming and inhibitory effects. The results suggest that the depths of prime-processing manipulations do not have parallel effects on priming and episodic memory, and that associative priming in word identification, as in other tasks, may involve an expectancy process.     

Reintegrating the Study of Accuracy Into Social Cognition Research

Understanding the contents of other minds is a vital and ubiquitous task that humans perform with impressive skill. As such, it is surprising that the majority of social cognition research—whether behavioral or neuroscientific—focuses on the processes people use when attempting to understand each other while ignoring how well those attempts fare. Here we review historical reasons for the contemporary dominance of process-oriented research as well as the resurgence in the last decades of new approaches to studying interpersonal accuracy. Although in principle both the accuracy-oriented and process-oriented approaches study related aspects of the same phenomena, in practice they have made strikingly little contact with each other. We argue that integrating these approaches could expand our understanding of social cognition, both by suggesting new ways to synthesize extant data and generate novel predictions and lines of research, and by providing a framework for accomplishing such an integration. This integration can be especially useful in highlighting the deeply contextualized nature of the relationships between social cognitive processes, accuracy, and adaptive social behavior.     

Using automation to combat the replication crisis: A case study from controlled-rearing studies of newborn chicks

The accuracy of science depends on the precision of its methods. When fields produce precise measurements, the scientific method can generate remarkable gains in knowledge. When fields produce noisy measurements, however, the scientific method is not guaranteed to work – in fact, noisy measurements are now regarded as a leading cause of the replication crisis in psychology. Scientists should therefore strive to improve the precision of their methods, especially in fields with noisy measurements. Here, we show that automation can reduce measurement error by ∼60% in one domain of developmental psychology: controlled-rearing studies of newborn chicks. Automated studies produce measurements that are 3–4 times more precise than non-automated studies and produce effect sizes that are 3–4 times larger than non-automated studies. Automation also eliminates experimenter bias and allows replications to be performed quickly and easily. We suggest that automation can be a powerful tool for improving measurement precision, producing high powered experiments, and combating the replication crisis.     

Investigating the encoding—retrieval match in recognition memory: Effects of experimental design,specificity, and retention interval

Five experiments investigated the encoding-retrieval match in recognition memory by manipulating read and generate conditions at study and at test. Experiments 1A and 1B confirmed previous findings that reinstating encoding operations at test enhances recognition accuracy in a within-groups design but reduces recognition accuracy in a between-groups design. Experiment 2A showed that generating from anagrams at study and at test enhanced recognition accuracy even when study and test items were generated from different anagrams. Experiment 2B showed that switching from one generation task at study (e.g., anagram solution) to a different generation task at test (e.g., fragment completion) eliminated this recognition advantage. Experiment 3 showed that the recognition advantage found in Experiment 1A is reliably present up to 1 week after study. The findings are consistent with theories of memory that emphasize the importance of the match between encoding and retrieval operations.     

Shortcuts to geographic profiling success: a reply to Rossmo (2005)

In ‘Geographic profiling: The fast, frugal, and accurate way’ (Applied Cognitive Psychology, 2004, vol. 18, pp. 105–121), we demonstrated that most people are able to predict the home location of a serial offender by using a simple prediction strategy that exploits patterns found in the offender's spatial behaviour. In this issue of Applied Cognitive Psychology, Rossmo challenges the validity of this research with respect to our data selection and methods of analysis. In response, we argue that: his proposed method for selecting data is unscientific; there is little evidence to support his claim that five crimes are required before profiles can be accurate; search area as a measure of profile accuracy has not yet been shown to be more useful than error distance; the heuristics we have examined are defined correctly and do lead to improvements in profile accuracy; and computerized geographic profiling is not a free service. Our comments aim to generate constraint in those intent on building confidence in computerized geographic profiling systems in the absence of strong empirical evidence to support their use. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hume’s better argument for motivational skepticism

On a standard interpretation, Hume argued that reason is not practical, because its operations are limited to “demonstration” and “probability.” But recent critics claim that by limiting reason’s operations to only these two, his argument begs the question. Despite this, a better argument for motivational skepticism can be found in Hume’s text, one that emphasizes reason’s inability to generate motive force against contrary desires or passions. Nothing can oppose an impulse but a contrary impulse, Hume believed, and reason cannot generate an impulse. This better argument is here developed and defended. Two lines of objection to it can be anticipated: (1) that reason actually can generate impulsive force, based on contents of its normative judgments and (2) that reason neither can nor needs to generate an impulse, since the actions of rational agents are not determined by forceful impulses of desire, as Hume supposed. These objections are answered by pointing out their unsatisfying consequences.     

A Computational Model of the Simplest Motor Program

A computational procedure (program) is defined to generate control signals for the motoneuron pools of agonist and antagonist muscles that will move a limb segment from one stationary position to another. The program accounts for the ability to move different distances with different inertial loads and for the influence of instructions concerning movement speed and accuracy. These motor commands allow the program to produce EMG patterns as well as force and kinematic trajectories that are consistent with much of the data found in the literature of these movements. The program is premised on the notion that kinematically defined tasks are accomplished by programming commands to the motoneuron pools, based on only a few cognitively recognized kinematic and dynamic features of the task. Most of the features found in EMG and kinematic patterns can be considered consequences of the program's algorithmic procedures rather than specifically planned features of those movements.     

How do depressed and healthy adults interpret nuanced facial expressions?

This study investigates the discrimination accuracy of emotional stimuli in subjects with major depression compared with healthy controls using photographs of facial expressions of varying emotional intensities. The sample included 88 unmedicated male and female subjects, aged 18-56 years, with major depressive disorder (n = 44) or no psychiatric illness (n = 44), who judged the emotion of 200 facial pictures displaying an expression between 10% (90% neutral) and 80% (nuanced) emotion. Stimuli were presented in 10% increments to generate a range of intensities, each presented for a 500-ms duration. Compared with healthy volunteers, depressed subjects showed very good recognition accuracy for sad faces but impaired recognition accuracy for other emotions (e.g., harsh, surprise, and sad expressions) of subtle emotional intensity. Recognition accuracy improved for both groups as a function of increased intensity on all emotions. Finally, as depressive symptoms increased, recognition accuracy increased for sad faces, but decreased for surprised faces. Moreover, depressed subjects showed an impaired ability to accurately identify subtle facial expressions, indicating that depressive symptoms influence accuracy of emotional recognition.