How the growth of science ends theory change

This paper outlines a defense of scientific realism against the pessimistic meta-induction which appeals to the phenomenon of the exponential growth of science. Here, scientific realism is defined as the view that our current successful scientific theories are mostly approximately true, and pessimistic meta-induction is the argument that projects the occurrence of past refutations of successful theories to the present concluding that many or most current successful scientific theories are false. The defense starts with the observation that at least 80% of all scientific work ever done has been done since 1950, proceeds with the claim that practically all of our most successful theories were entirely stable during that period of time, and concludes that the projection of refutations of successful theories to the present is unsound. In addition to this defense, the paper offers a framework through which scientific realism can be compared with two types of anti-realism. The framework is also of help to examine the relationships between these three positions and the three main arguments offered respectively in their support (No-miracle argument, pessimistic meta-induction, underdetermination).     

Learning data-driven decision-making policies in multi-agent environments for autonomous systems

Autonomous systems such as Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs), assistive robots are set improve the way we live. Autonomous systems need to be equipped with capabilities to Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns by interacting with its environment through trial and error, which has gained significant interest from research community for its promise to efficiently learn decision making through abstraction of experiences. However, most of the control algorithms used today in current autonomous systems such as driverless vehicle prototypes or mobile robots are controlled through supervised learning methods or manually designed rule-based policies. Additionally, many emerging autonomous systems such as driverless cars, are set in a multi-agent environment, often with partial observability. Learning decision making policies in multi-agent environments is a challenging problem, because the environment is not stationary from the perspective of a learning agent, and hence the Markov properties assumed in single agent RL does not hold. This paper focuses on learning decision-making policies in multi-agent environments, both in cooperative settings with full observability and dynamic environments with partial observability. We present experiments in simple, yet effective, new multi-agent environments to simulate policy learning in scenarios that could be encountered by an autonomous navigating agent such as a CAV. The results illustrate how agents learn to cooperate in order to achieve their objectives successfully. Also, it was shown that in a partially observable setting, an agent was capable of learning to roam around its environment without colliding in the presence of obstacles and other moving agents. Finally, the paper discusses how data-driven multi-agent policy learning can be extended to real-world environments by augmenting the intelligence of autonomous vehicles.     

Global and Local Pessimistic Meta-inductions

The global pessimistic meta-induction argues from the falsity of scientific theories accepted in the past to the likely falsity of currently accepted scientific theories. I contend that this argument commits a statistical error previously unmentioned in the literature and is self-undermining. I then compare the global pessimistic meta-induction to a local pessimistic meta-induction based on recent negative assessments of the reliability of medical research. If there is any future in drawing pessimistic conclusions from the history of science, it lies in local meta-inductions, but these meta-inductions will not result in global distrust of the results of science.     

Predicting the Outcomes of Disputes: Consequences for Disputant Reactions to Procedures and Outcomes1

Third parties in dispute settings often make predictions to disputants regarding the likely outcome of their dispute at arbitration. However, virtually no research has examined the impact of predictions on disputant satisfaction with dispute resolution procedures and outcomes. One explanation for the lack of attention to this variable may be that current theorizing regarding dispute resolution procedures is too narrowly stated to incorporate this procedural variation. Theories about predictability from nondispute settings are used to generate hypotheses regarding the consequences of such outcome prediction. In a laboratory setting, disputants prepared arguments in anticipation of an arbitration hearing. Prior to the arbitrator's decision, the experimenter read the disputants' arguments and made a prediction regarding the arbitrator's decision. Their arguments were then presented to an arbitrator who imposed a binding decision. Dependent measures include the disputants' anxiety while awaiting the arbitrator's decision, and their postdecision satisfaction with dispute resolution procedures and outcomes. Internal analyses support the hypothesis that outcome prediction has benefits for disputants' predecision coping, ratings of procedural fairness, and satisfaction judgments. Also, as hypothesized, correct predictions produced greater postdecision satisfaction with outcomes and decision-makers than did incorrect predictions.     

Are Unconceived Alternatives a Problem for Scientific Realism?

Stanford, in Exceeding Our Grasp, presents a powerful version of the pessimistic meta-induction. He claims that theories typically have empirically inequivalent but nonetheless well-confirmed, serious alternatives which are unconceived. This claim should be uncontroversial. But it alone is no threat to scientific realism. The threat comes from Stanford’s further crucial claim, supported by historical examples, that a theory’s unconceived alternatives are “radically distinct” from it; there is no “continuity”. A standard realist reply to the meta-induction is that past failures do not imply present ones because present theories are more successful than past ones. I have preferred to emphasize that present methodology is better than past ones. Stanford’s response to the standard reply is surprisingly brief and inadequate. He defends the inference from the uncontroversial claim but not that from the crucial one. He does not show that past discontinuity implies present discontinuity. Realism survives.     

Person,setting, and interaction contributions to nursery school social behavior patterns1

Within a nursery school environment, 8,930 behavioral observations were taken on 17 preschool children in six settings over a two-month period. Two different data analysis techniques were used. The aggregate analysis showed that person, setting, and interaction all contributed significantly to behavior patterns. The setting was significantly stronger than person. The individual analysis found that subjects' median Person Pattern values were correlated significantly and negatively with IQ and age, suggesting that younger children and those with lower IQ's had more consistent behavior across different settings. This was also true of children who had been at the school more than one year. Implications for predicting behavior were discussed, noting the need to study person and setting relative to one another for particular behaviors in different categories of environments.     

Automated cognitive testing of monkeys in social groups yields results comparable to individual laboratory-based testing

Cognitive abilities likely evolved in response to specific environmental and social challenges and are therefore expected to be specialized for the life history of each species. Specialized cognitive abilities may be most readily engaged under conditions that approximate the natural environment of the species being studied. While naturalistic environments might therefore have advantages over laboratory settings for cognitive research, it is difficult to conduct certain types of cognitive tests in these settings. We implemented methods for automated cognitive testing of monkeys (Macaca mulatta) in large social groups (Field station) and compared the performance to that of laboratory-housed monkeys (Laboratory). The Field station animals shared access to four touch-screen computers in a large naturalistic social group. Each Field station subject had an RFID chip implanted in each arm for computerized identification and individualized assignment of cognitive tests. The Laboratory group was housed and tested in a typical laboratory setting, with individual access to testing computers in their home cages. Monkeys in both groups voluntarily participated at their own pace for food rewards. We evaluated performance in two visual psychophysics tests, a perceptual classification test, a transitive inference test, and a delayed matching-to-sample memory test. Despite the differences in housing, social environment, age, and sex, monkeys in the two groups performed similarly in all tests. Semi-free ranging monkeys living in complex social environments are therefore viable subjects for cognitive testing designed to take advantage of the unique affordances of naturalistic testing environments.     

Multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems: A survey

In the last 20 years many multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) methods with continuous variables have been developed. However, in many real-world applications discrete variables must be introduced. It is well known that MOLP problems with discrete variables can have special difficulties and so cannot be solved by simply combining discrete programming methods and multi-objective programming methods. The present paper is intended to review the existing literature on multi-objective combinatorial optimization (MOCO) problems. Various classical combinatorial problems are examined in a multi-criteria framework. Some conclusions are drawn and directions for future research are suggested.     

The lack of effects of enriched and automated environments on the adaptive and maladaptive behavior of mentally retarded persons

This study addressed the relative effects of repeated exposures to an austere institutional dayroom, a toy enriched dayroom, a PUSH (Play Units for the Severely Handicapped) room that contained automated stimulation devices within a physical terrain, and a modular room that contained wall mounted automated stimulation devices, on the adaptive and maladaptive freeplay behavior of six groups of institutionalized mentally retarded individuals (N = 6 per group). Group One was observed in all four settings, whereas the other five were observed in two or more of the active settings. The results indicated that (1) there were only slight differences in object-directed adaptive behavior when the three active settings were compared to the austere setting, and (2) only the higher functioning subjects (Group Five) displayed consistent individual differences on any of the measures when active settings were compared. None of the comparisons, however, revealed statistically significant effects. This study clearly demonstrates the need for active control conditions, raises questions regarding the relevance of much of the previous research, and suggests that further refinements will be necessary before environments such as those in the present study produce meaningful changes in appropriate environmental interaction in the absence of staff mediation.     

Effects of a Private Room Versus Group Setting on Math Test Performance of College Students with ADHD

The effects of (a) private room, (b) typical classroom, and (c) high-distraction room test settings were examined on the math test performance of six college students (four females) with ADHD. Participants (aged 18–30 years) completed multiple, equivalent algebra calculation tests (100 items each) under the three test-setting conditions. A multi-element design was used to compare the number of items attempted (test access) and percentage correct (accuracy). Students also rated their level of distraction after each testing session on a Likert-type scale. Results showed that students found the high-distraction setting more distracting than other settings and that five of six students accessed more test items in the private room versus the high-distraction setting, with three of the six demonstrating nonoverlapping data across settings. A regular classroom setting did not produce a high level of distraction, nor did it restrict student access to the math tests relative to a private room setting. These findings suggest that some students with ADHD are affected negatively by highly distracting environments and may benefit from a quiet, private test setting. Single-case experimental designs may be useful for examining individual differences among students with disabilities receiving specific test accommodations.

     

A computational model of event segmentation from perceptual prediction

People tend to perceive ongoing continuous activity as series of discrete events. This partitioning of continuous activity may occur, in part, because events correspond to dynamic patterns that have recurred across different contexts. Recurring patterns may lead to reliable sequential dependencies in observers' experiences, which then can be used to guide perception. The current set of simulations investigated whether this statistical structure within events can be used 1) to develop stable internal representations that facilitate perception and 2) to learn when to update such representations in a self-organizing manner. These simulations demonstrate that experience with recurring patterns enables a system to accurately predict upcoming stimuli within an event, to identify boundaries between such events based on transient increases in prediction error, and to use such boundaries to improve prediction about subsequent activities.     

The influence of diverse interaction contexts on students' sociometric status

Despite there being numerous studies on sociometric status, research that analyzes this variable from a contextualized viewpoint taking into account the different school settings in which a pupil establishes relationships is rare. The aim of this study is to analyze the stability of sociometric status in different school settings. For this purpose, 522 students filled in a sociometric questionnaire that investigated two different settings: the academic setting, which refers to the formal classroom setting; and the leisure setting, which investigates a more informal and playful setting like the playground. The main results indicate that identification percentages are almost the same in both settings. Nonetheless, all sociometric types are contextually dependent, and some are more dependent than others. Thus, rejection is observed as being the most independent of context, whereas the most dependent is that of controversial pupils. Differential analyses show that sex modifies the results obtained. It is shown that, excluding a few exceptions, combinations of sociometric types in both settings investigated can be made. These results are discussed in connection with the methodology used to identify sociometric types and their practical implication for better school adjustment.     

Non-Violent Communication and Marital Relationship: Efficacy of ‘Emotion-Focused Couples’ Communication Program Among Filipino Couples

Non-Violent Communication (NVC), developed by Dr. Marshall B. Rosenberg, fosters intra- and interpersonal relationship through empathetic and compassionate communication. It has been used and proven effective in a variety of settings like schools, health care centers, jails, and in restorative and rehabilitative institutions. However, the use of NVC in the field of marital relationship is found to be relatively few. The present study aimed at investigating the efficacy of the intervention program, Emotion-Focused Couples’ Communication Program (EFCCP) in a Filipino setting. EFCCP which is an intervention program developed by the researchers based on the constructs of NVC has already been proven to be effective in a previous study involving couples in an Indian setting. This present study was undertaken to investigate the efficacy of the program’s shortened version in the Filipino setting and to test whether the program is culturally suited for Filipino married couples. Relational Communication Scale and Locke–Wallace Marital Adjustment Test were used to measure the level of communication and marital satisfaction among the couples. The EFCCP-Shortened Version was administered to a group of 12 couples for a period of 3 weeks, and the results revealed a significant difference in the level of couples’ communication and marital satisfaction among the participants. These results provided ample indications to the efficacy of the EFCCP-Shortened Version in enhancing communication and enriching marriage quality among couples across diverse settings.     

Creativity versus conscientiousness: which is a better predictor of student performance?

This paper examines the extent to which the incremental validity of creative thinking (over and above personality) in the prediction of academic performance may be a function of assessment methods. British university students (N = 307) completed the Alternate Uses Test and Big Five personality inventory at the beginning of the first academic year. Students' academic performance was assessed throughout a 4‐year period via written exams, continuous assessment (tutored seminars) and a supervised dissertation in the final year. Creative thinking was more related to final dissertation marks than to exam and continuous assessment performance (which were associated with Conscientiousness, rather than creative thinking). A follow‐up questionnaire on preferences for different assessment methods revealed that creative thinking was positively related to preference for viva voce (oral) exams, group projects and final dissertation, but negatively associated with preferences for multiple‐choice and essay‐type exams, as well as continuous assessment. Implications are discussed with regard to educational settings, in particular assessment methods. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining probability values from independent permutation tests: a discrete analog of Fisher's classical method

Permutation tests are based on all possible arrangements of observed data sets. Consequently, such tests yield exact probability values obtained from discrete probability distributions. An exact nondirectional method to combine independent probability values that obey discrete probability distributions is introduced. The exact method is the discrete analog to Fisher's classical method for combining probability values from independent continuous probability distributions. If the combination of probability values includes even one probability value that obeys a sparse discrete probability distribution, then Fisher's classical method may be grossly inadequate.     

The Within‐Setting Variability of Validity in Cognitive Ability Tests

This study was directed to check the second prediction of the situational specificity hypothesis (SSH). According to this prediction, if the setting is held constant, then validity coefficients will not vary from study to study. This prediction was tested using data from a series of studies in which cognitive ability tests were used. These tests are subjected to a cultural bias that could affect the validity variability. The results are contrary to the second prediction of the SSH because a great variability was found in the validity coefficients within‐setting. However, the findings are consistent with the hypothesis of validity generalization (VGH) that predicts similar variability in both across settings and within‐setting. Also, the cultural context does not seem to affect the variability of validity and this variability is similar to that observed in previous studies of validity generalization.     

Combined visual illusion effects on the perceived index of difficulty and movement outcomes in discrete and continuous fitts’ tapping

The speed-accuracy trade-off is a fundamental movement problem that has been extensively investigated. It has been established that the speed at which one can move to tap targets depends on how large the targets are and how far they are apart. These spatial properties of the targets can be quantified by the index of difficulty (ID). Two visual illusions are known to affect the perception of target size and movement amplitude: the Ebbinghaus illusion and Muller-Lyer illusion. We created visual images that combined these two visual illusions to manipulate the perceived ID, and then examined people’s visual perception of the targets in illusory context as well as their performance in tapping those targets in both discrete and continuous manners. The findings revealed that the combined visual illusions affected the perceived ID similarly in both discrete and continuous judgment conditions. However, the movement outcomes were affected by the combined visual illusions according to the tapping mode. In discrete tapping, the combined visual illusions affected both movement accuracy and movement amplitude such that the effective ID resembled the perceived ID. In continuous tapping, none of the movement outcomes were affected by the combined visual illusions. Participants tapped the targets with higher speed and accuracy in all visual conditions. Based on these findings, we concluded that distinct visual-motor control mechanisms were responsible for execution of discrete and continuous Fitts’ tapping. Although discrete tapping relies on allocentric information (object-centered) to plan for action, continuous tapping relies on egocentric information (self-centered) to control for action. The planning-control model for rapid aiming movements is supported.     

Simultaneous nonlinear prediction

A previous article was concerned with simultaneous linear prediction [1]. There one was given a set of predictor tests or items and one predicted a set of predictands (also tests or items, or perhaps criteria.) We proposed asimultaneous prediction which was a certain weighted sum of the predictors. In the present article the constraint that the prediction be a weighted sum is relaxed. We seek a general function of the predictors which will maximize the quantity chosen for measuring prediction efficiency. This quantity is the same as the one used in linear prediction and we justify this approach by showing it is the appropriate one when there is only one predictand. In order to solve the problem we restrict consideration to a vector of predictors having only a finite number of possible values, i.e., it possesses discrete probability distribution weights. This can be applied in the case of dichotomous items for instance. It may also be used in continuous distributions as an approximation, by first dividing the original range of values into a finite number of intervals. Then one attributes to the interval the weight corresponding to the probability mass it underlies in the original distribution.This work was initiated at Stanford University under contract 2-10-065 with U. S. Office of Education and was partly revised at the Université de Montréal.I wish to express my gratitude to Professor Herbert Solomon, Stanford University, for his unfailing assistance at all stages of my work and specially for bringing to my attention the problem of nonlinear prediction in the present context.     

Sensation seeking as a predictor of psychopathology in Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan

Identifying methods that enable prediction of psychopathology that results from military service is crucial for individual and mission readiness, and for postdeployment mental health. In the present study, we investigate the relationship between sensation seeking (SS) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and between SS and depression. Data from 743 Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2009 were collected 6 times: before deployment, during deployment, 1–3 weeks after homecoming, 2 months after homecoming, 7 months after homecoming, and 2.5 years after homecoming. In this study, we did not find a relationship between SS and PTSD, or between SS and depression. The present study does not support previous findings that link SS with psychopathology. The structural environment in the military setting, the extent of exposure and type of stressful situations may play a moderating role. More extreme environments, such as imprisonment and torture, may favor different expressions of SS. Further research should include other factors such as context and the extent and type of traumatic exposure in relation to SS.