Probability logic,logical probability,and inductive support

This paper seeks to defend the following conclusions: The program advanced by Carnap and other necessarians for probability logic has little to recommend it except for one important point. Credal probability judgments ought to be adapted to changes in evidence or states of full belief in a principled manner in conformity with the inquirer’s confirmational commitments—except when the inquirer has good reason to modify his or her confirmational commitment. Probability logic ought to spell out the constraints on rationally coherent confirmational commitments. In the case where credal judgments are numerically determinate confirmational commitments correspond to Carnap’s credibility functions mathematically represented by so—called confirmation functions. Serious investigation of the conditions under which confirmational commitments should be changed ought to be a prime target for critical reflection. The necessarians were mistaken in thinking that confirmational commitments are immune to legitimate modification altogether. But their personalist or subjectivist critics went too far in suggesting that we might dispense with confirmational commitments. There is room for serious reflection on conditions under which changes in confirmational commitments may be brought under critical control. Undertaking such reflection need not become embroiled in the anti inductivism that has characterized the work of Popper, Carnap and Jeffrey and narrowed the focus of students of logical and methodological issues pertaining to inquiry.     

Accelerated muscle contractility and decreased muscle steadiness following sauna recovery do not induce greater neuromuscular fatigability during sustained submaximal contractions

Acute whole-body hyperthermia (WBH) increases blood markers concentration of stress, impairs motor drive to exercising muscles, and decreases resistance to neuromuscular fatigability. The functional natural residual consequences of WBH on neuromuscular functions remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the effects of residual WBH on voluntary and electrically induced ankle plantar flexor contractility properties, motor drive transmission (reflexes), muscle torque steadiness, resistance to neuromuscular fatigability, and markers of stress as the body temperature recovers naturally to normothermia. WBH was induced by Finnish sauna bathing in 16 apparently healthy young (24 ± 4 years) adult men. Motor performance was monitored before and 2 h after the sauna, and immediately after submaximal exercise (120 s at 50% of maximal voluntary contraction). Markers of stress were monitored before and 2 h after the sauna. Finnish sauna exposure induced moderate to severe WBH (rectal temperature, 38.5–39.6 °C). At 2 h after the sauna, rectal temperature had recovered to the preheating level (preheating 37.11 ± 0.33 °C versus postheating 37.00 ± 0.29 °C, p > .05). Post-sauna recovery was accompanied by slowed salivary free cortisol diurnal kinetics, whereas noradrenaline, dopamine, and serotonin did not persist into the 2 h recovery after the sauna. Although recovery to normothermia after a sauna led to a greater acceleration of muscle contractility properties and decreased muscle steadiness, sustained isometric submaximal contraction did not provoke greater neuromuscular fatigability.     

Towards a Religiously Adequate Alternative to OmniGod Theism

Theistic religious believers should be concerned that the God they worship is not an idol. Conceptions of God thus need to be judged according to criteria of religious adequacy that are implicit in the ‘God-role’—that is, the way the concept of God properly functions in the conceptual economy and form of life of theistic believers. I argue that the conception of God as ‘omniGod’—an immaterial personal creator with the omni-properties—may reasonably be judged inadequate, at any rate from the perspective of a relationship ethics based on the Christian revelation that God is Love. I go on to suggest that a conception of God as the power of love within the natural universe might prove more adequate, with God’s role as creator understood in terms of final rather than efficient causation.     

Conscious and unconscious sensory inflows allow effective control of the functions of the human brain and heart at the initial ageing stage

The authors of the present article based their assumption on the concept that the sensory systems are the "windows to the brain" through which various functions of the human organism can be controlled. Comprehension of the fundamental mechanisms of the optimization of the sensory systems, brain, and cardiac functions has increased based on the prolonged sensory flows using conscious and unconscious aromatherapy and multimodal sensory activation. Sensory flow evoked stable systemic responses, including adaptive alteration of psycho-emotional state, attention, memory, sensorimotor reactions, intersensory interaction, visual information processing, statokinetic stability, and autonomic heart rhythm control. The efficacy and expediency of the use of sensory flow for non-medicinal correction of vital functions of the human organism at the initial stages of ageing was revealed.     

The Necessity of a Non-Reductionist Science of Politics

The major tendency within the discipline of political science has been to try to achieve a science modeled on the natural sciences and mathematics, following the pattern of other social sciences. This tendency has led to many reductionistic efforts to explain political behavior in terms of one or more functions, such as power, linguistic, psychical, or the economic. The institutional community of government and citizens—the political community or state—is thus overlooked or reduced to one or more functions. In critique of this tendency, this paper shows how the work on entities and functions by the Dutch legal philosopher Herman Dooyeweerd illumines the errors of reductionism and points the way to a multi-functional entity science of the political community.     

Rational cognitive therapy with public offenders

In addressing the issue of how offenders may help themselves face the world in prison and outside, this article outlines how the principles of rational emotive therapy as outlined by Ellis and Maultsby can be simplified for use with this population in order to provide them a method for understanding and alleviating unhelpful emotional reactions. An example is provided to illustrate how a rational self-analysis model can be taught as written homework in individual or group sessions. Using the RSA model, offenders are taught to review and better understand the meanings of irrational words and how they upset themselves. Overall, our experience has been that offenders of many persuasions can be taught to be more rational and logical—an essential foundation for successful rehabilitation. This article is reproduced with permission in a slightly modified form from an earlier article authored by Smith and Lombardo “Rational Cognitive Therapy: An Executive Summary” that appeared inThe Correctional Psychologist, 27, 1995, pp. 2–5.     

Mortgaging the future: Dumping ethics with nuclear waste

On August 22, 2005 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued proposed new regulations for radiation releases from the planned permanent U.S. nuclear-waste repository in Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The goal of the new standards is to provide public-health protection for the next million years — even though everyone admits that the radioactive wastes will leak. Regulations now guarantee individual and equal protection against all radiation exposures above the legal limit. Instead E.P.A. recommended different radiation exposure-limits for different time periods. It also recommended using only the arithmetic mean of the dose distribution, to assess regulatory compliance during one time period, but using only the median dose to assess compliance during another period. This piece argues that these two changes — in exposure-limits and in methods of assessing regulatory compliance — have at least four disturbing consequences. The changes would threaten equal protection, ignore the needs of the most vulnerable, allow many fatal exposures, and sanction scientifically flawed dose calculations.     

Intimate Partner Violence Within Gay Male Couples: Dimensionalizing Partner Violence Among Cuban Gay Men

Using a quantitative–qualitative mixed design, the current study investigated relationship violence within 35 gay male couples living in Santiago, Cuba. Informants narrated how violence was enacted within their relationship. Qualitative analyses revealed men’s construction of masculinity and the sequelae of economic hardships—which led to economic emasculinization—were primary contributors to relationship abuse. Gendered interpretations to the display of heightened masculinity contributed to intimate partner violence. Enacted interpersonal violence was not meaningfully associated with alcohol consumption or to personality measures. We suggest the economic constraints that are perceived by couples to precipitate relational stress may be similar across heterosexual and gay/lesbian couples, and that the relational power accorded to economic privilege cannot be aligned fully by gender.     

Teaching and Truthfulness

Some tendencies in modern education—the stress on ‘performativity’, for instance, and ‘celebration of difference’—threaten the value traditionally placed on truthful teaching. In this paper, truthfulness is mainly understood, following Bernard Williams, as a disposition to ‘Accuracy’ and ‘Sincerity’—hence as a virtue. It is to be distinguished from truth (a property of beliefs), and current debates about the nature of truth are not relevant to the issue of the value of truthfulness. This issue devolves into the question of whether truthfulness is a distinctive virtue of teachers, which they have a special obligation to exercise in the face of competing aims. This paper defends the idea of distinctive professional duties and considers two conceptions of teaching which ascribe a central place to truthfulness. The first conceives of teaching as a personal relationship within which trust, and hence, it is claimed, truthfulness, are paramount. This claim is challenged, and the paper concludes by sympathetically considering a second conception of teaching, articulated by Oakeshott and Heidegger. In this conception, teaching is a ‘releasement’ from ‘the daily flux’ of pupils’ lives through a truthful initiation into the alternatives to this ‘daily flux’ found within ‘the civilized inheritance of mankind’.     

‘Why Is There Something Rather Than Nothing?’ The Big Question

‘Good’ is nothing specific but is transcendentally or generally applied over specific, and specified, ‘categories’. These ‘categories’ may be seen—at least for the purposes of this note—as under Platonic Forms. The rule that instances under a category or form need a Form to be under is valid. It may be tautological: but this is OK for rules. Not being specific, however, ‘good’ neither needs nor can have a specifying Form. So, on these grounds, the Form of the Good is otious. Any rule of the kind, ‘Everything needs a Form, so good needs a Form of the Good’ is mistaken, in that good is not a kind, but a transcendental. To give a Form to the transcendental ‘good’ is a mistake: it is a Rylian category mistake. And the Form of the Good either does no work, or works unprofitably in any but an aesthetic sense.     

Explicit warnings reduce but do not eliminate the continued influence of misinformation

Information that initially is presumed to be correct, but that is later retracted or corrected, often continues to influence memory and reasoning. This occurs even if the retraction itself is well remembered. The present study investigated whether the continued influence of misinformation can be reduced by explicitly warning people at the outset that they may be misled. A specific warning— giving detailed information about the continued influence effect (CIE)—succeeded in reducing the continued reliance on outdated information but did not eliminate it. A more general warning—reminding people that facts are not always properly checked before information is disseminated—was even less effective. In an additional experiment, a specific warning was combined with the provision of a plausible alternative explanation for the retracted information. This combined manipulation further reduced the CIE but still failed to eliminate it altogether.     

The context-specific proportion congruent Stroop effect: Location as a contextual cue

The Stroop effect has been shown to depend on the relative proportion of congruent and incongruent trials. This effect is commonly attributed to experiment-wide word-reading strategies that change as a function of proportion congruent. Recently, Jacoby, Lindsay, and Hessels (2003) reported an itemspecific proportion congruent effect that cannot be due to these strategies and instead may reflect rapid, stimulus driven control over word-reading processes. However, an item-specific proportion congruent effect may also reflect learned associations between color word identities and responses. In two experiments, we demonstrate a context-specific proportion congruent effect that cannot be explained by such word—response associations. Our results suggest that processes other than learning of word—response associations can produce contextual control over Stroop interference.     

What is an emotional feeling? Lessons about affective origins from cross-species neuroscience

Cross-species affective neuroscience aspires to provide an evidence-based foundation for understanding the primary-process emotional networks that concurrently control instinctual emotional actions and affective feelings—direct emotional circuit mediated ‘rewards’ and ‘punishments’. In humans and other mammals, the ancestral subcortical regions of the brain are central to such affective BrainMind functions (a monistic term, here used synonymously with MindBrain, depending on stylistic needs). Although these circuits cannot be ‘identical’ across species (that would be incompatible with evolutionary principles) they are sufficiently similar, anatomically, neurochemically and functionally, to allow animal brain research to illuminate (yield testable predictions) about homologous human mind functions. Primal emotional feelings (affects) are inbuilt value functions of the brain that energize and inform the rest of the mental apparatus about basic survival values, thereby promoting secondary-process learning/memory functions and tertiary-process cognitive thinking-ruminative functions, yielding bottom-up evolutionary controls that ultimately allow top-down regulatory controls. As we envision how such “nested” hierarchies—two-way paths of causality—reflecting both bottom-up and top-down functions—we will need disciplined distinctions between cognitions and emotions at the primary-process level, while also accepting total interpenetrance of cognitions and affects at the tertiary-process level of MindBrain organization. This allows full and synergistic integration of basic and dimensional approaches to emotions. Here the primal emotional networks, so critically important for understanding ‘human-nature’ and psychiatric disorders, are discussed didactically in ways that can minimize dilemmas that non-evolutionary, non-hierarchical perspectives are subject to in modern emotion research.     

Predicting World Cup results: Do goals seem more likely when they pay off?

Bar-Hillel and Budescu (1995) failed to find a desirability bias in probability estimation. The World Cup soccer tournament provided an opportunity to revisit the phenomenon in a context in which desirability biases are notoriously rampant. Participants estimated the probabilities of various teams’ winning their upcoming games. They were promised money if one team—randomly designated by the experimenter—won its upcoming game. Participants assigned a higher probability to a victory by their target team than did other participants, whose promised monetary reward was contingent on the victory of its opponent. Prima facie, this seems to be a desirability bias. However, in a follow-up study that made one team salient, without promising monetary rewards, participants also judged their target team to be more likely to win. On grounds of parsimony, we conclude that what appears to be a desirability bias may just be a salience/marking effect, and—although optimism is a robust and ubiquitous human phenomenon—that wishful thinking still remains elusive.     

Cognitive Theories of Depression in Children and Adolescents: A Conceptual and Quantitative Review

This paper quantitatively reviews longitudinal studies examining three central cognitive theories of depression—Beck’s theory, Hopelessness theory, and the Response Styles theory—among children (age 8–12) and adolescents (age 13–19). We examine the effect sizes in 20 longitudinal studies, which investigated the relation between the cognitive vulnerability–stress interaction and its association with prospective elevations in depression after controlling for initial levels of depressive symptoms. The results of this review suggest that across theories there is a small relation between the vulnerability–stress interaction and elevations in depression among children (pr = 0.15) and a moderately larger effect (pr = 0.22) among adolescents. Despite these important findings, understanding their implications has been obscured by critical methodological, statistical, and theoretical limitations that bear on cognitive theories of depression. The evidence base has been limited by poor measurement of cognitive vulnerabilities and over reliance on null hypothesis significance testing; these have contributed to a field with many gaps and inconsistencies. The relative paucity of research on developmental applications of such theories reveals that surprisingly little is known about their hypothesized etiologic mechanisms in children and adolescents. Ways to advance knowledge in the area of cognitive theories of depression among youth are discussed.     

Referred sensations induced by a mirror box in healthy subjects

Twenty-one healthy subjects were instructed to observe the mirror image of the tactile stimulation of their own hand (control condition) or an assistant’s hand (experimental condition) while being queried about the referred sensation (RS) in their own masked hand behind the mirror. The rated intensity of the RS under the experimental condition was significantly stronger than that under the control condition. In a second experiment, the experimental condition was replaced with the tactile stimulation of a prosthetic (rubber) hand, and was compared with the tactile stimulation of the subject’s own hand (control condition). In both of the experiments, the rated intensity of RS was significantly stronger under the experimental condition than under the control condition. The qualitative characteristics of the induced RS on the mirror image hand—including the location, sense of ownership, and various subjective feelings—were also found to vary among subjects. In conclusion, an RS could be induced in healthy subjects on the mirror image of the hand by tactile stimulations, although this effect differed substantially among individuals.     

Predicting conjunction typicalities by component typicalities

In two studies, we investigated to what extent typicalities in conjunctive concepts phrased as relative clauses—such aspets that are also birds—can be predicted from simple functions of constituent typicalities and from extensions of such functions. In a first study, analyses of a large aggregated data set, based on seven different experiments, showed that a calibrated minimum rule model and some extensions of this model accounted for a very large part of the variance in the conjunction typicalities. The same models can also account for the so-called guppy effect. A psychological explanation is presented, which states that typicalities in contrast categories, likepets that are not birds andbirds that are not pets, further improve the prediction of conjunction typicalities. This hypothesis is tested in a second study.     

Acquisition of the Linearization Process in Text Composition in Third to Ninth Graders: Effects of Textual Superstructure and Macrostructural Organization

Two complementary experiments analyzed the acquisition of text content linearization in writing, in French-speaking participants from third to ninth grades. In both experiments, a scrambled text paradigm was used: eleven ideas presented in random order had to be rearranged coherently so as to compose a text. Linearization was analyzed on the basis of the conceptual ordering of ideas and writing fluency. The first experiment focused on the effect of superstructural facilitation (in decreasing order: 1—instructional, 2—narrative, 3—argumentative), while the second experiment studied the effect of prewriting conditions: 1—scrambled presentation, 2—macrostructural facilitation, 3—ideas given in optimal order (control condition). As expected, scores in conceptual ordering and writing fluency improved through the grade levels. Students were most successful with respect to conceptual ordering in the instructional superstructure, followed by the narrative and finally the argumentative superstructures. The prewriting assignment also had the expected effect (control better than macrostructural presentation which, in turn, was better than the random order) but only with the argumentative superstructure. Contrary to conceptual ordering, writing fluency was not affected by the type of superstructure, although we did record an effect of the prewriting condition. The results are discussed in light of Bereiter and Scardamalia’s knowledge transforming strategy (1987) taking into account cognitive development and French language curriculum.     

The Uses of Argument in Communicative Contexts

This paper challenges the view that arguments are (by definition, as it were) attempts to persuade or convince an audience to accept (or reject) a point of view by presenting reasons for (or against) that point of view. I maintain, first, that an arguer need not intend any effect beyond that of making it manifest to readers or hearers that there is a reason for doing some particular thing (e.g., for believing a certain proposition, or alternatively for rejecting it), and second that when an arguer is in fact trying to induce an effect above and beyond rendering a reason manifest, the effect intended—the use to which his or her argument is put—need not be that hearers “do” what the stated reasons are reasons for “doing.” Where the actual or intended effect of making a reason R for “doing X” manifest is something other than “doing X,” I call it an oblique—as opposed to a direct—effect of making that reason manifest. The core of the paper presents an overview or map of the main categories of effect which arguments can have, and the main sub-types within each category, calling attention to the points at which such effects can be indirect or oblique effects. The purpose of that typology is to make it clear (i) how oblique effects can come about and (ii) how important a role they can play in the conduct of argumentation.     

Sacred plants and visionary consciousness

Botanical preparations used by shamans in rituals for divination, prophecy, and ecstasy contain widely different psychoactive compounds, which are incorrectly classified under a single denomination such as “hallucinogens,” “psychedelics,” or “entheogens.” Based on extensive ethnopharmacological search, I proposed a psychopharmacological classification of magic plants in 1979. This paper re-evaluates this taxonomy in the context of consciousness research. Several groups of psychodysleptic magic plants are proposed: (1) hallucinogens—psilocybin mushrooms, mescaline cacti, dimethyltryptamine snuffs, and the synthetic ergoline lysergic acid diethylamide induce strong perceptual changes, affective intensification, and cognitive enhancement. Their ethnobotanical uses include long lasting divination rituals, prophecy, and sacramental practice. (2) Trance-inducers—ergoline Convolvulaceae and South American Banisteriopsis produce quietness, abstraction, lethargy, mild sensorial and cognitive changes, and salient visual imagery changes used in trance rituals and specific divination practices. (3) Cognodysleptics—marijuana (tetrahydrocannabinol) and other terpene-containing plants induce changes in thought, imagination, and affective functions and are used in short-term divination or oneiromancy. (4) Deliriants—tropane-containing Solanaceae, wild tobacco, and Amanita muscaria (muscimol) induce a delirium characterized by dim and clouded consciousness, stupor, confusion, disorientation, perception distortion, difficulties in recollection, anxiety, irritability, excitation, and behavioral disorganization employed in sorcery, purification, or exorcism rituals. The core mental effects required for a drug to be used in shamanistic rituals include light-headedness, enhanced imagery, and experience intensification. This constellation was the reason why, in his classification of psychoactive compounds, the pioneer German psychopharmacologist Louis Lewin established in 1924 a group of drugs under the appropriate name of Phantastica.