Pitches that Wire Together Fire Together: Scale Degree Associations Across Time Predict Melodic Expectations

The ongoing generation of expectations is fundamental to listeners’ experience of music, but research into types of statistical information that listeners extract from musical melodies has tended to emphasize transition probabilities and n-grams, with limited consideration given to other types of statistical learning that may be relevant. Temporal associations between scale degrees represent a different type of information present in musical melodies that can be learned from musical corpora using expectation networks, a computationally simple method based on activation and decay. Expectation networks infer the expectation of encountering one scale degree followed in the near (but not necessarily immediate) future by another given scale degree, with previous work suggesting that scale degree associations learned by expectation networks better predict listener ratings of pitch similarity than transition probabilities. The current work outlines how these learned scale degree associations can be combined to predict melodic continuations and tests the resulting predictions on a dataset of listener responses to a musical cloze task previously used to compare two other models of melodic expectation, a variable-order Markov model (IDyOM) and Temperley's music-theoretically motivated model. Under multinomial logistic regression, all three models explain significant unique variance in human melodic expectations, with coefficient estimates highest for expectation networks. These results suggest that generalized scale degree associations informed by both adjacent and nonadjacent relationships between melodic notes influence listeners’ melodic predictions above and beyond n-gram context, highlighting the need to consider a broader range of statistical learning processes that may underlie listeners’ expectations for upcoming musical events.     

Agreement between observers when the categories are not specified in advance

To test the agreement between two observers who categorize a number of objects when the categories have not been specified in advance, Brennan & Light (1974) developed a statistic A′ and suggested a normal approximation for its distribution. In this paper it is shown that this approximation is inadequate particularly when one, or both, of the observers place a fairly equal number of objects in all of their categories. A chi-squared approximation to the distribution of A′ is developed and is shown to work well in a variety of situations. The relative powers of A′ and the ordinary X² test for association are dependent on the type of ‘agreement between the observers’ that is assumed. However a simulation for a fairly general type of agreement indicates that the X² test is more powerful. As the X² test is also much easier to apply, it would seem preferable in most situations.     

Cultural Factors in the Recall of a Witnessed Event

Can cultural factors influence testimony? To explore this hypothesis, groups of Spanish and English students (n = 48 per group) observed successively two films showing events specific to Spain (a romeria) and England (a village fete) before giving free recall and a verbal recognition test that contained lures consistent and inconsistent with cultural expectations. In addition, half the subjects were instructed to adopt the role of an observer while the remainder played the role of a participant. Significant interactions between cultural background and type of event reported were found for both recall and recognition. Contrary to expectation (i) recall accuracy was greater for the event that was not from the subject's own country (ii) recall errors were greater for the event from the subject's own country. In line with expectation, recognition accuracy was high for the event from the subject's own country. Results are discussed in terms of the operation of schemabased theories of recall and Johnson's reality-monitoring approach. The practical implications of the current findings for the interviewing of witnesses are briefly discussed.     

Rule utilitarianism and decision theory

The purpose of this paper is to show how some of the controversial questions concerning utilitarianism can be clarified by the modelling techniques and the other analytical tools of decision theory (and, sometimes, of game theory). It is suggested that the moral rules of utilitarian ethics have a logical status similar to that of the normative rules (theorems) of such formal normative disciplines as decision theory and game theory.The paper argues that social utility should be defined, not in hedonistic or in ideal-utilitarian terms, but rather in terms of individual preferences, in accordance with the author's equiprobability model of moral value judgments.After describing the difficulties of act utilitarianism, rule utilitarianism is discussed as a possibly superior alternative. Brandt and Lyons have tried to show that these two forms of utilitarianism are actually equivalent. To test Brandt's and Lyons's equivalence thesis, a decision-theoretical model for utilitarian theory is proposed. The model shows that the thesis is definitely false. The basic difference between the two theories results from the expectation effect and the incentive effect, which, surprisingly enough, have been almost completely neglected in the philosophical literature. The paper illustrates these two effects in connection with the moral duty of promise keeping.Yet, even if we do neglect the expectation and the incentive effects, and concentrate on the coordination effect, as most of the philosophical literature does, it can be shown that rule utilitarianism and act utilitarianism have very different practical implications. This is demonstrated by analysis of three voting situations. Hence, the equivalence thesis fails even under the assumptions most favorable to it.     

Infants' perception of human body orientation and the effect of a surrounding square

We examined two hypotheses about infants' perception of orientation. The first is that infants develop an expectation that the human body is normally vertical. To examine this hypothesis, we compared the preferential looking to vertical and oblique versions of a silhouette of a human body, to an inverted body, and to a grating. Our second hypothesis is that presenting a figure inside a frame affects the perception of orientation. To examine the second hypothesis, we placed the figure inside a surrounding square that was oriented normally or at an oblique angle. Four‐ to seven‐month‐old infants (N = 78) participated. The results showed that 6–7‐month‐old infants preferred the oblique human body presented upright; no such preference was observed for the inverted body or the grating. For all types of displays, the surrounding square influenced preferences. Our results suggest that (a) 6–7‐month‐old infants have specific expectations about the orientation of the human body, and (b) surrounding displays with a square could influence the perception of the orientation of the human body, as well as that of a grating.     

On the chi‐square approximation to the exact distribution of goodness‐of‐fit statistics in multinomial models with composite hypotheses

Multinomial models are increasingly being used in psychology, and this use always requires estimating model parameters and testing goodness of fit with a composite null hypothesis. Goodness of fit is customarily tested with recourse to the asymptotic approximation to the distribution of the statistics. An assessment of the quality of this approximation requires a comparison with the exact distribution, but how to compute this exact distribution when parameters are estimated from the data appears never to have been defined precisely. The main goal of this paper is to compare two different approaches to defining this exact distribution. One of the approaches uses the marginal distribution and is, therefore, independent of the data; the other approach uses the conditional distribution of the statistics given the estimated parameters and, therefore, is data—dependent. We carried out a thorough study involving various parameter estimation methods and goodness‐of‐fit statistics, all of them members of the general class of power‐divergence measures. Included in the study were multinomial models with three to five cells and up to three parameters. Our results indicate that the asymptotic distribution is rarely a good approximation to the exact marginal distribution of the statistics, whereas it is a good approximation to the exact conditional distribution only when the vector of expected frequencies is interior to the sample space of the multinomial distribution.     

Understanding the contribution of target repetition and target expectation to the emergence of the prevalence effect in visual search

Behavior in visual search tasks is influenced by the proportion of trials on which a target is presented (the target prevalence). Previous research has shown that when target prevalence is low (2 % prevalence), participants tend to miss targets, as compared with higher prevalence levels (e.g., 50 % prevalence). There is an ongoing debate regarding the relative contributions of target repetition and the expectation that a target will occur in the emergence of prevalence effects. In order to disentangle these two factors, we went beyond previous studies by directly manipulating participants’ expectations regarding how likely a target was to appear on a given trial. This we achieved without using cues or feedback. Our results indicated that both target repetition and target expectation contribute to the emergence of the prevalence effect.     

Facilitating Internalization: The Self-Determination Theory Perspective

Self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985) posits that (a) people are inherently motivated to internalize the regulation of uninteresting though important activities; (b) there are two different processes through which such internalization can occur, resulting in qualitatively different styles of self-regulation; and (c) the social context influences which internalization process and regulatory style occur. The two types of internalization are introjection, which entails taking in a value or regulatory process but not accepting it as one's own, and integration, through which the regulation is assimilated with one's core sense of self. Introjection results in internally controlling regulation, whereas integration results in self-determination. An experiment supported our hypothesis that three facilitating contextual factors—namely, providing a meaningful rationale, acknowledging the behaver's feelings, and conveying choice—promote internalization, as evidenced by the subsequent self-regulation of behavior. This experiment also supported our expectation that when the social context supports self-determination, integration tends to occur, whereas when the context does not support self-determination, introjection tends to occur.     

To what extent can communalities reduce rank?

The question is raised as to whether the null hypothesis concerning the number of common factors underlying a given set of correlations should be that this number is small. Psychological and algebraic evidence indicate that a more appropriate null hypothesis is that the number is relatively large, and that smallness should be but an alternative hypothesis. The question is also raised as to why approximation procedures should be aimed primarily at the observed correlation matrixR and not at, say,R ^–1. What may be best forR may be worst forR ^–1, and conversely, yetR ^–1 is directly involved in problems of multiple and partial regressions. It is shown that a widely accepted inequality for the possible rank to whichR can be reduced, when modified by communalities, is indeed false.This research was facilitated by a noncommitted grant-in-aid to the writer from the Ford Foundation.     

Expectations from preceding prosody influence segmentation in online sentence processing

Previous work examining prosodic cues in online spoken-word recognition has focused primarily on local cues to word identity. However, recent studies have suggested that utterance-level prosodic patterns can also influence the interpretation of subsequent sequences of lexically ambiguous syllables (Dilley, Mattys, & Vinke, Journal of Memory and Language, 63:274–294, 2010; Dilley & McAuley, Journal of Memory and Language, 59:294–311, 2008). To test the hypothesis that these distal prosody effects are based on expectations about the organization of upcoming material, we conducted a visual-world experiment. We examined fixations to competing alternatives such as pan and panda upon hearing the target word panda in utterances in which the acoustic properties of the preceding sentence material had been manipulated. The proportions of fixations to the monosyllabic competitor were higher beginning 200 ms after target word onset when the preceding prosody supported a prosodic constituent boundary following pan-, rather than following panda. These findings support the hypothesis that expectations based on perceived prosodic patterns in the distal context influence lexical segmentation and word recognition.     

Pooling data versus averaging model fits for some prototypical multinomial processing tree models

For a study with multinomial data where there are n_g individuals and with each person having n_r test trials, the question arises as to how to fit the parameters of a multinomial processing tree (MPT) model. Should each parameter be estimated for each individual and then averaged to obtain a group estimate, or should the frequencies in the multinomial categories be pooled so that the model is fit once for the entire group? This basic question is explored with a series of Monte Carlo simulations for some prototypical MPT models. There is a general finding of a pooling advantage for the case where there is a single experimental condition. Also when there are different experimental conditions, there is reduced bias for detecting condition differences for a method based on the pooled data. Although the focus of the paper is on multinomial models, a general theorem is advanced that establishes a basic condition that determines whether there is or is not a difference between the averaging of individual estimates and the estimate based on the pooled data.     

Investigating the social environment of the A‐not‐B search task

Controversy exists concerning the origins of object permanence, with different measures suggesting different conclusions. Looking measures have been interpreted as evidence for early understanding (Baillargeon, 1987, Developmental Psychology, 23 :655), while Piaget (The construction of reality in the child, 1954) interpreted perseverative reaching behaviour on his AB search task to be indicative of limited understanding. However, looking measures are often reported to be an unreliable index of infant expectation (Haith, 1998, Infant Behaviour and Development, 21 :167) and reaching behaviour has been explained by many alternative processes (e.g. Smith et al., 1999, Psychological Review, 106 :235; Topál et al., 2008, Science, 321 :1831). We aimed to investigate whether social looking (Dunn & Bremner, 2017, Developmental Science, 20 :e12452; Walden et al., 2007, Developmental Science, 10 :654) can be used as a valid measure of infant expectation of object location during the Piagetian AB search task. Furthermore, we aimed to test the social accounts of perseverative reaching by investigating how the direction of experimenter gaze would affect infant search and social behaviour. Infant search and social behaviour was compared on B trials across three different conditions, namely experimenter gaze to midline, location A and location B. Search performance significantly improved when the experimenter looked to location B. Infant social looking indicated that infants expect the object to be found in the location in which they search and are actively seeking information about object location from the experimenter. We conclude that social looking is a valid index of infant expectation that has provided support for the importance of the social environment on the AB search task. This casts doubt on the potential for this task to provide information related to the development of object permanence in infancy.     

Exploring the elementary harmonic forces in the tonal system

To study the elementary expectations that arise in the perception of tonal music, an exploratory study was performed in which subjects heard a sequence of four chords (to induce a key or tonality) followed by one tone (1 of the 12 tones within an octave), and indicated which tone they expected to be the next tone. Responses were divided into three groups: a random, a fifth, and a tonal group. The expectations in the tonal group are of main interest, as they seem to originate from a tonal representation. In this representation the tonic attracts almost all tones, although to different degrees, while the dominant and the mediant function as centripetal centers that attract only nearby tones. A preliminary model for the formation of elementary expectations based on a 3-level mental representation of the tones in a key is proposed, The predictive capability of the model is compared to that of existing models.     

Previously acquired cue–outcome structural knowledge guides new learning: Evidence from the retroactive-interference-between-cues effect

The effect of retroactive interference between cues predicting the same outcome (RIBC) occurs when the behavioral expression of a cue–outcome association (e.g., A→O1) is reduced due to the later acquisition of an association between a different cue and the same outcome (e.g., B→O1). In the present experimental series, we show that this effect can be modulated by knowledge concerning the structure of these cue–outcome relationships. In Experiments 1A and 1B, a pretraining phase was included to promote the expectation of either a one-to-one (OtO) or a many-to-one (MtO) cue–outcome structure during the subsequent RIBC training phases. We hypothesized that the adoption of an OtO expectation would make participants infer that the previously learned A→O1 relationship would not hold any longer after the exposure to B→O1 trials. Alternatively, the adoption of an MtO expectation would prevent participants from making such an inference. Experiment 1B included an additional condition without pretraining, to assess whether the OtO structure was expected by default. Experiment 2 included control conditions to assess the RIBC effect and induced the expectation of an OtO or MtO structure without the addition of a pretraining phase. Overall, the results suggest that participants effectively induced structural expectations regarding the cue–outcome contingencies. In turn, these expectations may have potentiated (OtO expectation) or alleviated (MtO expectation) the RIBC effect, depending on how well these expectations could accommodate the target A→O1 test association. This pattern of results poses difficulties for current explanations of the RIBC effect, since these explanations do not consider the incidence of cue–outcome structural expectations.     

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The development of the concept of time in third, fifth, and seventh graders of two Israeli social groups—advantaged Westerners (n = 144) and disadvantaged Easterners (n = 120)—was compared. Contrary to expectations, no difference in performance was found between the social groups throughout the entire age range. In both groups performance, while far from reaching perfection, increased with age. In addition, disparity between our findings and those of Siegler and Richards cast doubts on the generalizability of the rules they extracted through the rule-assessment method.     

Use them or lose them: Are manipulatives needed to assess numeracy and geometry performance in preschool?

In two studies, we investigated whether using three-dimensional (3D) manipulatives during assessment aided performance on a variety of preschool mathematics tasks compared to pictorial representations. On measures of children's understanding of counting and cardinality (n = 103), there was no difference in performance between manipulatives and pictures, with Bayes factors suggesting moderate evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. On a measure of children's shape identification (n = 93), there was no difference in performance between objects and pictures, with Bayes factors suggesting moderate evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. These results suggest flexibility in the materials that can be used during assessment. Pictures, or 2D renderings of 3D objects, which can be easily printed and reproduced, may be sufficient for assessing counting and shape knowledge without the need for more cumbersome concrete manipulatives.     

Choice‐making,Expectations, and Treatment Positivity: How and When Choosing Shapes Aversive Experiences

Every day we use products and treatments with unknown but expected effects, such as using medication to manage pain. In many cases, we have a choice over which products or treatments to use; however, in other cases, people choose for us or choices are unavailable. Does choosing (versus not choosing) have implications for how a product or treatment is experienced? The current experiments examined the role of choice‐making in facilitating so‐called expectation assimilation effects—or situations in which a person's experiences (e.g., discomfort and pain) are evaluated in a manner consistent with their expectations. In Experiment 1, participants were initially exposed to a baseline set of aversive stimuli (i.e., sounds). Next, some participants were given expectations for two “treatments” (i.e., changes in screen display) that could ostensibly reduce discomfort. Critically, participants were either given a choice or not about which of the two treatments they preferred. Participants in a control condition were not provided with treatment expectations. Results revealed that discomfort experiences assimilated to expectations only when participants were provided with choice. Experiment 2 replicated this finding and provided evidence against the idea that demand characteristics and choice‐making unrelated to the core task (i.e., choices without associated expectations) could account for the results. Further, Experiment 2 showed that choosing reduced discomfort because of increased positivity about the treatment. Results are discussed in the context of extant research on choice‐making and expectation effects. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extreme outcome expectations and affect intensity

Two studies tested the hypothesis that extreme outcome expectations are associated with affect intensity. Study 1 (N=104) measured extreme outcome expectations in response to one's idiosyncratic goals, and Study 2 (N=93) measured extreme outcome expectations in response to common life events. Higher levels of affect intensity were associated with higher levels of extreme outcome expectations in both studies. The association between affect intensity and extreme outcomes expectations held even after controlling for shared variance with other affective variables (i.e., trait pleasant affect, trait unpleasant affect, affect variability) and other variables that might overlap with extreme outcome expectations (i.e., optimism, pessimism).     

Cooperative,pure, and selfish trusting: Their distinctive effects on the reaction of trust recipients

Three types of trusting have been distinguished conceptually and empirically. In cooperative trusting the trust giver explicitly expects a reaction from the trust recipient that fits with the equality norm. In pure trusting, no explicit expectation is expressed by the giver. In selfish trusting the giver explicitly expects a reaction that benefits himself or herself at the expense of the recipient. We asked whether the three types of trust elicit distinctive reactions from trust recipients. Each participant was paired with a fictitious player who ostensibly enabled him or her to divide money between them. As hypothesized, both cooperative and pure trusting elicited more equal allocations than did selfish trusting. A second hypothesis, that cooperative trust would yield more equal allocations than pure trust, was not supported. Results are discussed in terms of equality norm, self‐interest norm, reciprocity norm, reactance theory, social sanctioning, and the need to comply with others' expectations. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Categorization Deficit in Old Age: Reality or Artefact?

When categorization behaviour is compared between young and elderly adults, results usually show a decrease in taxonomic choices along with an increase in thematic choices. This can be interpreted in two ways: a decline in the ability to perceive and use taxonomic relations, or a modification of conceptual preferences with aging related to a bias stemming from material which favours young adults. We evaluated the second hypothesis by studying whether the salience of categorical associations could explain the differences generally observed between young and elderly adults. This hypothesis was tested on 25 young subjects (M = 45.3 years, SD =5.6 years) and 30 elderly subjects (M = 71.5 years, SD = 7.1 years) using a matching task: individual judgments were used to build triads in which a target was presented along with a strong and a weak associate. In line with our hypothesis, both age groups were influenced by associative strength and type of relation in the same way. Results are interpreted with Baltes’s [1987, Developmental Psychology, 23, 611–626] model.