Post-decision consolidation over time as a function of gain or loss of an alternative

Post-decision consolidation processes were studied in a two-stage lottery design. School children (1) rated the attractiveness of audiotape head sets, (2) decided for which of two head sets they would like to get a lottery ticket, (3) threw a dice to determine if they got a lottery ticket in the preferred lottery or not, and (4)drew a ticket in the final lottery. Before and after each of these stages ratings were obtained of the attractiveness of the alternatives on four attributes. The results were interpreted in terms of Differentiation and Consolidation Theory. Post-decision consolidation appeared immediately after the outcome of the dice throw. Subjects who won a lottery ticket consolidated their prior decision to a greater degree than those who lost. The effect was so strong for the former group that a pre-decision attractiveness disadvantage was restructured to a post-decision advantage. Folowing the decision, consolidation remained at approximately the level reached immediately after the dice throw for losers and winners, respectively, but with an increasing trend over time for winners. Even following a final loss of an audiotape headset the level of consolidation was maintained.     

Individual postdecision processes in group settings

In two experiments Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con) (Svenson, 1992) was used to investigate individual postdecision making processes in three-member groups. It was predicted that in groups in which the subjects preferred different alternatives (conflict groups), subjects would consolidate their own preferred alternative, and not the group's final decision. A second hypothesis was that no consolidation would be indicated in groups in which all members preferred the same alternative (non-conflict groups). The results showed that in conflict groups, the members who gave up their preferred alternative (minority members) consolidated their own preference, thereby significantly regretting the group decision. In contrast, members who got their own will through in the majority decision (majority members) showed no consolidation of the group decision. The corresponding pattern of results was replicated in a second experiment, using a different decision situation. The results indicated that perceptions of social support, agreement in a group and decreasing responsibility for a group's decision, could all partly substitute consolidation by attractiveness restructuring.     

Knowledge of one's own responding and the relation of such knowledge to learning: A developmental study

First-, third-, fifth-grade children, and college students (ages 6, 8, 10, and 19 years) acquired a paired-associate list under the study-test procedure to a one error-less trial criterion. In addition, as each pair was presented the individual indicated whether he/she had that pair correct on the immediately preceding trial (postdiction responses). The data were interpreted in terms of a discrimination-utilization hypothesis which postulates that individuals discriminate their own correct and incorrect responses on a given trial and use this information for distributing processing effort on the subsequent trial. Analyses involving the accuracy of postdiction responses, the relation of postdiction accuracy to acquisition, and the consideration of the acquisition data in terms of a two-stage model led to the conclusion that older children and adults may use the discrimination-utilization strategy but younger children tend not to use it, probably because of both mediation and production deficiencies.     

Metacognition in Taiwan: students' calibration of comprehension and performance

Researchers have increasingly investigated the role played by metacognition in students' learning and performance. Metacognition is comprised of metacognitive knowledge and metacognitive experiences, and both components of metacognition are viewed as being important to learning and performance in academic settings. Metacognitive experiences involve, in part, students' awareness of progress on cognitive tasks. Such awareness is critical to learning, for students may fail to spend additional time reviewing or studying material if they believe they have understood the material adequately. In the present study we examined Taiwanese students' ability to assess their comprehension of passages following reading as well as their ability to predict the number of questions they would be able to answer about passage content. Following an actual test on the material, students were asked to assess how many questions they felt they answered correctly about a passage (postdiction). Students were able to predict comprehension and test performance at better than chance levels and were more accurate at postdiction than prediction. Students with better performance, as measured by comprehension test scores, were better at both prediction and postdiction of comprehension performance. However, students' self-assessments of general calibration ability did not relate to their test performance. The metacomprehension skills of Taiwanese students were quite similar to those previously found for western students, but also diverged in some respects.     

Predecision conflict and different patterns of postdecision attractiveness restructuring: empirical illustrations from an important real-life decision

This study presents different postdecision consolidation patterns following decisions made under value conflicts. The different patterns were illustrated by case studies of real-life decisions concerning university programs. There were five program alternatives each of which branched into a different professional area. These decisions were very important to the students. The subjects were followed during a year, from a couple of months before they made their choice of program and during several months after the start of the programs. Different postdecision strategies for consolidating a prior decision were derived from Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Svenson, 1992). The strategies involved the following postdecision attractiveness restructuring patterns. (1) Reversing an attractiveness disadvantage into an advantage on a conflict attribute, (2) Compensating for a disadvantage through increase of an advantage of another attribute, (3) Reversing disadvantage on a conflict and decreasing advantage on non-conflict attribute(s), and (4) Increasing advantage for chosen alternative on all attributes. In addition, (5) downgrading of importance of the conflict attribute or a complete elimination of this attribute is also a possible way of consolidating the prior decision. The results illustrated the above consolidation patterns. A comparison with subjects who made the same decisions but with no value conflict indicated that postdecision consolidation was largely driven by value conflicts at the time of decision in conjunction with the outcome of the decision.     

Judgments of Decision Effectiveness: Actor-Observer Differences in Overconfidence

Subjects playing the role of psychiatrists (actors) engaged in a simulated medical decision-making task in which they attempted to bring the value of a patient indicator variable into a desired range. For each treatment recommended by the actor, both the actor and an observer subject playing the role of a nurse assessed the probability that the treatment would be effective. Both actors and observers were overconfident. Actors were more confident in their treatment recommendations than were observers, but this difference was eliminated when observers were given the opportunity to offer their own alternative recommendation. Under the latter circumstances, actors and observers were equally confident in the actors' decisions but observers were more confident than actors in the observers' decisions. These findings suggest that while control over the outcome of the decision has little influence on actor-observer differences in confidence, feedback regarding this outcome plays a crucial role.     

Evaluating negative tests and refutations in a rule discovery task

Subjects participating in Wason's rule discovery task (1960) overwhelmingly try to confirm rather than refute their currently held hypothesis. Such a strategy is often inadequate and runs counter to the canons of scientific methodology. The present study was designed to investigate subjects' differential evaluation of test strategies and outcome. One-hundred and sixty students participated in two experiments in which they had to judge someone else's potential test items in Wason's task. Experiment 1 demonstrated that exposure to various histories has a mediating effect on the strength of the confirmation bias. In Experiment 2, subjects knew the researcher's rule and thus whether each proposed test item would lead to confirmation or refutation of the hypothesis under consideration. The preferred items were those that alerted the subject to an incorrect hypothesis (refutation) and those that turned out to be positive instances of the rule sought after, with the combination of the two (a negative test leading to refutation) being most highly evaluated.     

Letter to a genetic counselor

The author describes her personal experience terminating a pregnancy after receiving an abnormal amniocentesis result: While still waiting for the results, she and her husband attempted to deny the importance of the pregnancy, an approach which they subsequently regretted. When they received the abnormal result, they found themselves able to make necessary decisions quickly, despite being in shock. It then took some time before they realized what a major loss they had actually suffered. The painful aftermath included accepting emotional responsibility for their decision to abort, as well as explaining that difficult decision to their older children. Thoughts of a possible subsequent pregnancy could not be faced at once. Over time, the author found the support of friends and colleagues, and even of a support group, to be invaluable. All in all, the entire experience was more painful than she would have predicted, and she hopes that this account will prove helpful both to genetic counselors and to other patients who receive abnormal results from prenatal diagnosis. A list of suggested readings is appended.Rose Green is a pseudonym.     

Post-decision consolidation: group members in different social settings compared to individual decision makers

Two experiments were conducted to examine how making decisions in a 3-member group affects the degree of post-decision consolidation, defined as attractiveness changes in favor of the chosen alternative. Both experiments were conducted in two sessions one week apart. In the first session (decision phase), participants estimated the importance of each of four different attributes describing two decision alternatives. They were then shown predetermined attractiveness ratings on each of the attributes and were to decide on the two alternatives, either individually or as a group. In the second session (post-decision phase), the participants were to attempt to recall the attractiveness ratings for the attributes as presented to them in session one. In both experiments, significant post-decision consolidation was found for individual decision makers but not for group members. In experiment 2, this result was replicated, no difference in consolidation being found between group members with face-to-face interaction and without.     

The value of action and inference in dynamic decision making

The use of action- versus judgment-oriented decision strategies in a dynamic decision task is investigated. Subjects engaged in a simulated medical decision-making task, where the goal is to select treatments in order to cure patients suffering from an unknown disease. The experiment manipulated two task factors that were predicted to influence the effectiveness and efficiency of action- and judgment-oriented strategies: (1) the availability of a decision aid that promotes the interpretability of outcome feedback in the task and (2) the level of risk associated with treatment choices, which influences the opportunity for corrective actions to compensate for earlier decision errors. Results indicated that these manipulations did in fact influence performance. However, most subjects did not use action-oriented strategies even when they would have led to superior performance. Possible explanations for this finding are discussed and the implications for theoretical accounts of strategy acquisition and selection are considered.     

The Influence of Decision Aids on Choice Strategies: An Experimental Analysis of the Role of Cognitive Effort

This paper examines the role of computer-based decision aids in reducing cognitive effort and therefore influencing strategy selection. It extends and complements the works reported in the behavioral decision theory literature on the role of effort and accuracy in choice tasks. The central proposition of this paper is that specific features can be incorporated within a set of decision aids that will alter the effort required to implement a particular choice strategy relative to other strategies, and that this will influence strategy selection by the decision maker. In a laboratory experiment, using a repeated measures design, 48 subjects performed a preferential choice task using different decision aids. Subjects were given different levels of support to reduce the cognitive effort associated with different preferential choice strategies. In particular, the decision aids provided varying levels of support for the processing associated with either elimination by aspects or additive difference strategies. The study examined how information processing strategies were influenced by the decision aids. The results show that decision aids which reduce the effort associated with the elimination by aspects strategy induce behaviors associated with elimination by aspects. More importantly, there was an interaction effect caused by the distinct behavior of the group which was provided support for additive difference but not for elimination by aspects. This group processed the information about available choices in a way that is consistent with an additive difference strategy. These findings indicate that a decision aid can induce additive processing by altering the relative effort requirements of different choice strategies.     

The Effects of Decision Outcome Dispersion Upon Organizational Decision Making

The effects of varying decision outcome dispersion on organizational decision making were investigated under individual and group decision making conditions. Thirty-six female and pg]36 male subjects made decisions for organizational decision scenarios in which outcomes affected primarily the decision maker, people other than the decision maker, or a group of which the decision maker was a member. Subjects rated their levels of perceived risk and confidence in their decisions and made decisions within a simulated context of either a small or a large organization. Results indicated that subjects perceived significantly less risk and more confidence in their decisions when outcomes affected primarily themselves rather than others regardless of whether the decisions were made individually or by a group. Males perceived their decisions as significantly more risky than females. Induced organizational size did not significantly influence decision making.

     

Retrospective versus prospective explanations of changes in political opinion

Retrospective and prospective causal attributions of one's political opinion changes were compared in light of the distinction between external and internal attributions. Semistructured interviews focusing on three political issues were held with 47 psychology undergraduates. Subjects were asked to explain (a) why they changed opinion in the past, and (b) what would make them abandon their current positions in the future. Two judges estimated independently the importance the subjects attached to four categories of external attributions (firsthand and secondhand information, neutral and persuasive information sources) and two categories of internal attributions (cognitive elaboration and personality characteristics). As a group, subjects explained their past opinion changes by referring to several attribution categories whereas in their explanations of hypothetical future opinion changes they above all referred to (secondhand information on) crucial events. It is concluded that people feel something drastic would need to occur before they would be ready to abandon a political stance.     

Responsibility attribution by groups and individuals: The effects of the interaction episode

Studied the effects of formal and informal interaction styles on the extremity of responsibility attribution judgements by groups. The stimuli were eight scenarios describing typical ‘life dilemmas’, incorporating the manipulation of the following two variables in a 2 × 2 design: (a) the risky-cautious decision taken by the actor in response to the dilemma, and (b) the outcome of the decision (success-failure). Subjects (N = 130) provided judgements about the attributed responsibility of the actor, and their perception of the actor and the situation first as individuals, followed by (a) formal or (b) informal group discussion, leading to consensus judgements. Results showed that group attributions were significantly more extreme than individual attributions, but only following the informal group interaction. The actors' riskiness and success were also significantly related to the size of the extremity shift. The findings are discussed in terms of the importance of the social context and the specific interaction episode in attribution judgements, and the possible implications of the results for such real life decision-making groups as committees and interviewing panels are considered.     

Evaluating Decision Makers: The Role of Choice Congruence and Outcome

Two studies were conducted in which decision makers were evaluated by subjects who had agreed or disagreed with the decision maker's choice. Subjects read one of two vignettes describing the alternatives available to the decision maker, indicated which alternative they personally favored, and then learned about the decision maker's choice and the outcome that occurred. Study 1 varied whether the outcomes of the decision maker's choice were positive or negative, and whether the subject's preferred option matched (congruent choice) or did not match (incongruent choice) that of the decision maker. Subjects rated the extent to which they thought the decision maker was worthy of praise (in the case of positive outcomes) or blame (in the case of negative outcomes), and the decision maker's likableness and competence. Results revealed a strong effect of congruence on attributions of praise and blame: More praise was ascribed to an agreeing decision maker and more blame to a disagreeing decision maker. The degree to which the decision maker was seen as likable was affected by congruence only, whereas perceived competence was influenced by both outcome and congruence. Study 2 addresses some methodological issues that were unresolved in Study 1 and replicated the results of the first study, using new stimulus materials and an expanded set of dependent measures.     

Decision Making When the Acceptable Options Become Unavailable

Research examined what decision makers do when, after screening out unacceptable options in preparation for making a choice from among the acceptable survivors, they find that all of the survivors have become unavailable and that no new options are forthcoming. Subjects were presented options in the form of rooms to rent and were required to screen them to prepare a "short list" from which a choice could be made. They also rated the importance of the room′s characteristics. Then they were told that the rooms on the short list all had been rented, and that no new rooms had become available so they would have to create a new short list from among the previously rejected rooms. Then they rescreened the rejected options and rerated the importance of the characteristics of the rooms. It was found that nearly 90% of the subjects would prefer to begin again with new options rather than rescreen rejected options. It also was found that when forced to rescreen rejected options, subjects reduced their ratings of the importance of the options′ characteristics, apparently in an effort to compensate, at least in part, for having to select options that, only moments before, had been regarded as unacceptable. Efforts to discourage ratings reductions proved futile. Implications of the results for screening and choice are discussed.     

Learning to allocate limited time to decisions with different expected outcomes

The goal of this article is to investigate how human participants allocate their limited time to decisions with different properties. We report the results of two behavioral experiments. In each trial of the experiments, the participant must accumulate noisy information to make a decision. The participants received positive and negative rewards for their correct and incorrect decisions, respectively. The stimulus was designed such that decisions based on more accumulated information were more accurate but took longer. Therefore, the total outcome that a participant could achieve during the limited experiments’ time depended on her “decision threshold”, the amount of information she needed to make a decision. In the first experiment, two types of trials were intermixed randomly: hard and easy. Crucially, the hard trials were associated with smaller positive and negative rewards than the easy trials. A cue presented at the beginning of each trial would indicate the type of the upcoming trial. The optimal strategy was to adopt a small decision threshold for hard trials. The results showed that several of the participants did not learn this simple strategy. We then investigated how the participants adjusted their decision threshold based on the feedback they received in each trial. To this end, we developed and compared 10 computational models for adjusting the decision threshold. The models differ in their assumptions on the shape of the decision thresholds and the way the feedback is used to adjust the decision thresholds. The results of Bayesian model comparison showed that a model with time-varying thresholds whose parameters are updated by a reinforcement learning algorithm is the most likely model. In the second experiment, the cues were not presented. We showed that the optimal strategy is to use a single time-decreasing decision threshold for all trials. The results of the computational modeling showed that the participants did not use this optimal strategy. Instead, they attempted to detect the difficulty of the trial first and then set their decision threshold accordingly.     

Depression and attributions for problems and solutions in college students

50 adult clients at college counseling centers completed scales measuring depression, attributions for their primary problem and its expected improvement, and locus of control. Subjects who were more depressed made relatively internal and stable attributions for their primary problems, were less likely to believe they would improve, and expressed more belief in the importance of chance and powerful others. As a group, subjects tended to view their improvement as more internal and controllable than the cause of their problems. The results suggest that knowledge of clients' attributions for their problems could prove relevant to the treatment of depression.