Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach

What factors contribute to hindsight bias, the phenomenon whereby the known outcome of an event appears obvious only after the fact? The Causal Model Theory (CMT) of hindsight bias (Nestler et al. in Soc Psychol 39:182–188, 2008a; in J Expl Psychol: Learn Mem Cog 34:1043–1054, 2008b; Pezzo in Mem 11:421–441, 2003; Wasserman et al. in Pers Soc Psychol Bull 17:30–35, 1991) posits that hindsight bias can occur when people have the opportunity to identify potential causal antecedents and evaluate whether they could have led to the outcome. Two experiments incorporating highly controlled minimalist scenarios supported the CMT. As predicted by the CMT, hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the actual outcome better than the alternative outcome, and reverse hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the alternative outcome better than the actual outcome. Moreover, we found new evidence that outcome knowledge alone was insufficient to elicit hindsight bias in the absence of a potential causal antecedent. Implications for future directions in hindsight bias research are discussed.     

Mindfulness as a moderator of the effect of implicit motivational self-concept on day-to-day behavioral motivation

Drawing from theories regarding the role of awareness in behavioral self-regulation, this research was designed to examine the role of mindfulness as a moderator between implicit motivation and the motivation for day-to-day behavior. We hypothesized that dispositional mindfulness (Brown and Ryan, J Pers Soc Psychol, 84, 822–848, 2003) would act to modify the expression of implicit autonomy orientation in daily behavioral motivation. Using the Implicit Association Test (Greenwald et al. J Pers Soc Psychol, 74, 1464–1480, 1998), Study 1 provided evidence for the reliability and validity of a new measure of implicit autonomy orientation. Using an experience-sampling strategy, Study 2 showed the hypothesized moderating effect, such that implicit autonomy orientation predicted day-to-day motivation only for those lower in dispositional mindfulness. Those higher in mindfulness showed more autonomously motivated behavior regardless of implicit orientation toward autonomy or heteronomy. It also showed that this moderating effect of awareness was specific to mindfulness and was primarily manifest in spontaneous behavior. Discussion focuses on the implications of these findings for dual process theory and research.

Threat causes liberals to think like conservatives

In Study 1, politically liberal college students’ in-group favoritism increased after a system-injustice threat, becoming as pronounced as that of conservatives. Studies 2 and 3 conceptually replicated these results with low preference for consistency [Cialdini, R. B., Trost, M. R., & Newsom, J. T. (1995). Preference for consistency: The development of a valid measure and the discovery of surprising behavioral implications. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 318-328.] as a dispositional measure of liberalism. In Study 2, following a mortality salience threat, dispositionally liberal students showed as much conviction in their attitudes toward capital punishment and abortion as dispositional conservatives did. In Study 3, after a mortality salience threat, liberal students became as staunchly unsupportive of homosexuals as conservatives were. The findings that political and dispositional liberals become more politically and psychologically conservative after threats provide convergent experimental support for the [Jost, J. T., Glaser, J., Kruglanski, A. W., & Sulloway, F. J. (2003). Political conservatism as motivated social cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 129 339-375.] contention that conservatism is a basic form of motivated social cognition.     

Semantic priming occurs for word but not location pronunciation in the postcue task

Semantic priming refers to the finding that a word response is facilitated if it is preceded by a related word compared to when it is preceded by an unrelated word. Dallas and Merikle (Can J Psychol 30: 15–21 1976a; Bull Psychon Soc 8: 441–444 1976b) demonstrated that semantic priming occurred under conditions in which a pair of simultaneously displayed words was previewed for over a second prior to the onset of a cue indicating which of the words should be pronounced aloud (postcue task). In contrast, semantic interference effects have been reported for postcue picture-naming tasks (Dean et al. in J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn 27: 733–743, 2001; Humphreys et al. in J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn 21: 961–980, 1995). According to Dean et al., the semantic interference effects in postcue picture naming occur because the integration of the object and the cued attribute in memory is more difficult for categorically related pictures than for unrelated pictures. The aim of this experiment was to determine whether this idea was true for postcue word pronunciation tasks. Participants completed two postcue tasks, one requiring pronunciation of the target word indicated by a locational cue and another requiring pronunciation of the location of a centrally presented word. Results indicated a semantic priming effect only for the locational cue condition suggesting that the integration of the cue and identity information was unaffected by word context. These data suggest that priming in a postcue word pronunciation task may be due to feedback from residual activation within the semantic system facilitating access to the target word’s phonology.     

Does familiarity or conflict account for performance in the word-stem completion task? Evidence from behavioural and event-related-potential data

The conflict monitoring theory (CMT) assumes that word-stems associated with several completions should lead to crosstalk and conflict due to underdetermined responding situation (Botvinick et al. in Psychol Rev 108(3):624–652, 2001). In contrast, the Multiple-Read-Out-Model (MROM) of Jacobs and Grainger (J Exp Psychol 20(6): 1311–1334, 1994) predicts a high level of general lexical activity (GLA) for word-stems with many completions, indicating a higher stimulus familiarity because these stems are more probable to be read. We compared word-stems with several completions against word-stems with one possible completion while measuring response times and electrophysiological recordings. Slowest response times and a distinct FN400 component, which has previously been related to the concept of familiarity (Curran in Memory Cogn 28(6):923–938, 2000), were apparent for word-stems that could only be associated with a single response. These findings support the claims of the MROM. Furthermore, the lack of the N2-component for word-stems with several completions continues to challenge the EEG-extension of the CMT (Yeung et al. in Psychol Rev 111(4):2004).     

Time-course analysis of temporal preparation on central processes

Participants usually respond faster to a response signal (RS) when this signal is preceded by a warning stimulus than when it is not. A question of theoretical importance is the locus of this facilitating effect within the information processing stream. Recently, Los and Schut (Cogn Psychol 57:20–55, 2008) suggested that temporal preparation acts on central processes while perception of the RS is under way. The present study provides a stochastic model (central preparation model, CPM) based on this hypothesis and presents three experiments testing this model. To track the complete time-course of temporal preparation, the warning signal could either precede or follow the RS. The data show some systematic deviation from the model’s predictions, questioning CPM’s assumption that temporal preparation acts only on central processes. An alternative mechanism of temporal preparation based on the parallel grains model [Miller and Ulrich (Cogn Psychol 46:101–151, 2003)] is discussed.     

“We All Have Feelings for Our Girlfriends:” Progressive (?) Representations of Lesbian Lives on the <Emphasis Type="Italic">The L Word</Emphasis>

The Showtime series The L Word (2004–2009) marked one of the first dramatized representations of prominent lesbian characters. While many popular culture scholars are focusing attention on the recent “gaying” of television narrative (e.g., Battles and Hilton-Morrow in Critical Studies in Media Communication 19: 87–105, 2002; Shugart in Text and Performance Quarterly 23: 30–54, 2003; Critical Studies in Media Communication 20: 67–91, 2003), far less attention is given to non-romantic interpersonal relationships surrounding main characters in these narratives. Sexuality scholarship notes that lesbian individuals must negotiate their self-disclosure to heterosexuals (Dindia in Dialectical approaches to studying personal relationships, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc., Mahwah, NJ, 1998), and that this can be challenging for forming relationships and maintaining identity (Meyer in Communication Quarterly 51: 262–276, 2004). Ultimately, this essay argues that despite the gains in visibility and even in intimacy, The L Word articulates an ideology of avoidance whereby the underlying problems of heterosexism and homophobia are left unchallenged.     

Endogenous cueing attenuates object substitution masking

Object substitution masking (OSM) is a form of visual masking in which a briefly presented target surrounded by four small dots is masked by the continuing presence of the four dots after target offset. A major parameter in the prediction of OSM is the time required for attention to be directed to the target following its onset. Object substitution theory (Di Lollo et al. in J Exp Psychol Gen 129:481–507, 2000) predicts that the sooner attention can be focused at the target’s location, the less masking will ensue. However, recently Luiga and Bachmann (Psychol Res 71:634–640, 2007) presented evidence that precueing of attention to the target location prior to target-plus-mask onset by means of a central (endogenous) arrow cue does not reduce OSM. When attention was cued exogenously, OSM was attenuated. Based on these results, Luiga and Bachmann argued that object substitution theory should be adapted by differentiating the ways of directing attention to the target location. The goal of the present study was to further examine the dissociation between the effects of endogenous and exogenous precueing on OSM. Contrary to Luiga and Bachmann, our results show that prior shifts of attention to the target location initiated by both exogenous and endogenous cues reduce OSM as predicted by object substitution theory and its computational model CMOS.     

Parents’ Grief in the Context of Adult Child Mental Illness: A Qualitative Review

Research indicates that parents and other family members often grieve their child or relative’s mental illness. This grief appears resultant from a profound sense of loss, which has been described as complicated and nonfinite (e.g., Atkinson in Am J Psychiatry 151(8):1137–1139, 1994; Davis and Schultz in Soc Sci Med 46(3):369–379, 1998; Jones in Br J Soc Work 34:961–979, 2004; MacGregor in Soc Work 39(2):160–166, 1994; Osborne and Coyle in Couns Psychol Q 15(4):307–323, 2002; Ozgul in Aust N Z J Fam Ther 25(4):183–187, 2004; Tuck et al. in Arch Psychiatric Nurs 11(3):118–125, 1997). This paper reviews existent research in this emerging field, with a focus on parents’ grief experience in relation to their adult child’s mental disorder. Studies that explore parents’ and family members’ grief, using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, are considered. Research evidence for the association between parents’ and family members’ grief and other outcomes are discussed. Findings concerning the prediction of grief in parents and family members who have a child or relative with a mental disorder will be reviewed. Finally, this paper considers methodological and theoretical issues associated with existent research and presents options for further study.     

Reporting of Subscores Using Multidimensional Item Response Theory

Recently, there has been increasing interest in reporting subscores. This paper examines reporting of subscores using multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models (e.g., Reckase in Appl. Psychol. Meas. 21:25–36, 1997; C.R. Rao and S. Sinharay (Eds), Handbook of Statistics, vol. 26, pp. 607–642, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 2007; Beguin & Glas in Psychometrika, 66:471–488, 2001). A MIRT model is fitted using a stabilized Newton–Raphson algorithm (Haberman in The Analysis of Frequency Data, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1974; Sociol. Methodol. 18:193–211, 1988) with adaptive Gauss–Hermite quadrature (Haberman, von Davier, & Lee in ETS Research Rep. No. RR-08-45, ETS, Princeton, 2008). A new statistical approach is proposed to assess when subscores using the MIRT model have any added value over (i)  the total score or (ii)  subscores based on classical test theory (Haberman in J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 33:204–229, 2008; Haberman, Sinharay, & Puhan in Br. J. Math. Stat. Psychol. 62:79–95, 2008). The MIRT-based methods are applied to several operational data sets. The results show that the subscores based on MIRT are slightly more accurate than subscore estimates derived by classical test theory.     

Motivating political preferences: Concerns with promotion and prevention as predictors of public policy attitudes

Motivation is an important component of many political decision making theories. However, different definitions of motivation have led to different conclusions as to how influential motivation is on political attitudes. When motivation has been defined in terms of personal interest, its predictive value has been questioned (Sears and Funk in Advances in experimental social psychology, vol 24. Academic Press, New York, pp. 1–91, 1991); however, other motivational variables like Schwartz’ (Advances in experimental social psychology, vol 25, Academic Press, New York, pp. 1–65, 1992) values have been found to be strong predictors of such attitudes. This article investigates the influence of another type of motivational variable. Specifically, two studies examined how chronic concerns with fundamental needs for security (i.e., prevention) and growth (i.e., promotion) relate to public policy attitudes. In samples of both college students and nationally representative US households and across a variety of policy areas, stronger prevention concerns predicted support for government intervention to maintain public and personal safety, whereas stronger promotion concerns predicted support for government intervention to ensure opportunities for growth and enrichment.     

Work Status Congruence’s Relation to Employee Attitudes and Behaviors: The Moderating Role of Procedural Justice

Purpose  

The purpose of this study is to explore procedural justice as a boundary condition of work status congruence’s (WSC) relationships with organizational commitment and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). WSC is defined as the degree to which an employee’s schedule, shift, full-time or part-time status, and number of working hours, match his or her preferences (Holtom et al. in J Appl Psychol 86:80–93, 2002). This exploration is grounded in the outcome favorability–procedural justice interaction literature (e.g., Brockner in Acad Manag Rev 27:58–76, 2002).     

Clinical Judgment and Clinical Significance in Psychotherapy Practice

The use of outcome measurement in psychotherapy practice is briefly discussed, as is Jacobson and Truax’s (J Consult Clin Psychol 59:12–19, 1991) conception of clinically significant change. A more flexible and user friendly application of clinically significant change compatible with clinical judgment is proposed for psychotherapy practice. Examples are given and a free Windows program is described for computing RC and estimating the probability associated with it.     

Comparisons of Online Reading Paradigms: Eye Tracking, Moving-Window, and Maze

This study compares four methodologies used to examine online sentence processing during reading. Specifically, self-paced, non-cumulative, moving-window reading (Just et al. in J Exp Psychol Gen 111:228–238, 1982), eye tracking (see e.g., Rayner in Q J Exp Psychol 62:1457–1506, 2009), and two versions of the maze task (Forster et al. in Behav Res Methods 41:163–171, 2009)—the lexicality maze and the grammaticality maze—were used to investigate the processing of sentences containing temporary structural ambiguities. Of particular interest were (i) whether each task was capable of revealing processing differences on these sentences and (ii) whether these effects were indicated precisely at the predicted word/region. Although there was considerable overlap in the general pattern of results from the four tasks, there were also clear differences among them in terms of the strength and timing of the observed effects. In particular, excepting sentences that tap into clause-closure commitments, both maze task versions provided robust, “localized” indications of incremental sentence processing difficulty relative to self-paced reading and eye tracking.     

Sexual Double Standards: Bias in Perceptions of Cyber-Infidelity

The current study compared the predictions of two socio-cultural theories, shifting standards and intergroup bias, to predict sexual double standards that occur in reactions to computer-mediated infidelity. Shifting standards theory (Biernat In The shifting standards model: Implications of stereotype accuracy for social judgment, APA, Washington DC, 1995) suggests that individuals will judge female targets more harshly than male targets, based on culturally ingrained stereotypes regarding sexual behavior. On the contrary, intergroup bias theory (Brewer In Psychol Bull 86:307–324, 1979) predicts that individuals will judge outgroup targets, or members of the opposite sex, more harshly than ingroup targets, or members of the same sex. Participants were shown a hard copy of presumable evidence that extradyadic computer-mediated behavior had occurred, engaged in by one of two members of a couple. The two groups differed only by the sex of the target, the female “Colleen” or the male “Bill”. Then participants reported their attitudes toward the target’s behavior, resulting distress, and likelihood to terminate the relationship. Results showed support for the intergroup bias theory, suggesting that individuals altered their attitudes toward the behavior based on whether the target was an ingroup or outgroup member.     

Feature integration and spatial attention: common processes for endogenous and exogenous orienting

Briand (J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform 24:1243–1256, 1998) and Briand and Klein (J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform 13:228–241, 1987) demonstrated that spatial cueing effects are larger for detecting conjunction of features than for detecting simple features when spatial attention is oriented exogenously, and not when attention is oriented endogenously. Their results were interpreted as if only exogenous attention affects the posterior spatial attention system that performs the feature binding function attributed to spatial attention by Treisman’s feature integration theory (FIT; 1980). In a series of 6 experiments, we attempted to replicate Briand’s findings. Manipulations of distractor string size and symmetry of stimulus presentation left and right from fixation were implemented in Posner’s cueing paradigm. The data indicate that both exogenous and endogenous cueing address the same attentional mechanism needed for feature binding. The results also limit the generalisability of Briand’s proposal concerning the role of exogenous attention in feature integration. Furthermore, the importance to control the effect of unintended attentional capture in a cueing task is demonstrated.     

Conscious machines: Memory,melody and muscular imagination

A great deal of effort has been, and continues to be, devoted to developing consciousness artificially (A small selection of the many authors writing in this area includes: Cotterill (J Conscious Stud 2:290–311, 1995, 1998), Haikonen (2003), Aleksander and Dunmall (J Conscious Stud 10:7–18, 2003), Sloman (2004, 2005), Aleksander (2005), Holland and Knight (2006), and Chella and Manzotti (2007)), and yet a similar amount of effort has gone in to demonstrating the infeasibility of the whole enterprise (Most notably: Dreyfus (1972/1979, 1992, 1998), Searle (1980), Harnad (J Conscious Stud 10:67–75, 2003), and Sternberg (2007), but there are a great many others). My concern in this paper is to steer some navigable channel between the two positions, laying out the necessary pre-conditions for consciousness in an artificial system, and concentrating on what needs to hold for the system to perform as a human being or other phenomenally conscious agent in an intersubjectively-demanding social and moral environment. By adopting a thick notion of embodiment—one that is bound up with the concepts of the lived body and autopoiesis (Maturana and Varela 1980; Varela et al. 2003; and Ziemke 2003, 2007a, J Conscious Stud 14(7):167–179, 2007b)—I will argue that machine phenomenology is only possible within an embodied distributed system that possesses a richly affective musculature and a nervous system such that it can, through action and repetition, develop its tactile-kinaesthetic memory, individual kinaesthetic melodies pertaining to habitual practices, and an anticipatory enactive kinaesthetic imagination. Without these capacities the system would remain unconscious, unaware of itself embodied within a world. Finally, and following on from Damasio’s (1991, 1994, 1999, 2003) claims for the necessity of pre-reflective conscious, emotional, bodily responses for the development of an organism’s core and extended consciousness, I will argue that without these capacities any agent would be incapable of developing the sorts of somatic markers or saliency tags that enable affective reactions, and which are indispensable for effective decision-making and subsequent survival. My position, as presented here, remains agnostic about whether or not the creation of artificial consciousness is an attainable goal.     

Route-based travel and shared routes in sympatric spider and woolly monkeys: cognitive and evolutionary implications

Many wild primates occupy large home ranges and travel long distances each day. Navigating these ranges to find sufficient food presents a substantial cognitive challenge, but we are still far from understanding either how primates represent spatial information mentally or how they use this information to navigate under natural conditions. In the course of a long-term socioecological study, we investigated and compared the travel paths of sympatric spider monkeys (Ateles belzebuth) and woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii) in Amazonian Ecuador. During several field seasons spanning an 8-year period, we followed focal individuals or groups of both species continuously for periods of multiple days and mapped their travel paths in detail. We found that both primates typically traveled through their home ranges following repeatedly used paths, or “routes”. Many of these routes were common to both species and were stable across study years. Several important routes appeared to be associated with distinct topographic features (e.g., ridgetops), which may constitute easily recognized landmarks useful for spatial navigation. The majority of all location records for both species fell along or near identified routes, as did most of the trees used for fruit feeding. Our results provide strong support for the idea that both woolly and spider monkey use route-based mental maps similar to those proposed by Poucet (Psychol Rev 100:163–182, 1993). We suggest that rather than remembering the specific locations of thousands of individual feeding trees and their phenological schedules, spider and woolly monkeys could nonetheless forage efficiently by committing to memory a series of route segments that, when followed, bring them into contact with many potential feeding sources for monitoring or visitation. Furthermore, because swallowed and defecated seeds are deposited in greater frequency along routes, the repeated use of particular travel paths over generations could profoundly influence the structure and composition of tropical forests, raising the intriguing possibility that these and other primate frugivores are active participants in constructing their own ecological niches. Building upon the insights of Byrne (Q J Exp Psychol 31:147–154, 1979, Normality and pathology in cognitive functions. Academic, London, pp 239–264, 1982) and Milton (The foraging strategy of howler monkeys: a study in primate economics. Columbia University Press, New York, 1980, On the move: how and why animals travel in groups. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 375–417, 2000), our results highlight the likely general importance of route-based travel in the memory and foraging strategies of nonhuman primates.

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This contribution is part of the Special Issue “A Socioecological Perspective on Primate Cognition” (Cunningham and Janson 2007).     

How Resources (or Lack Thereof) Influence Advice Seeking on Psychological Well-being and Marital Risk: Testing Pathways of the Lack of Financial Stability,Support, and Strain

Using the model of conservation of resources (Hobfoll in The ecology of stress. Hempshire, New York, 1988; Hobfoll in Am Psychol 44:513–524, 1989; Hobfoll in Stress, culture, and community: the psychology and philosophy of stress. Plenum, New York, 1998; Hobfoll in Appl Psychol Int Rev 50:337–421, 2001), we explore how advice seeking, as influenced by lack of financial stability and support and strain from others (i.e., spouse, friends, and family) predicts psychological well-being and marital risk. Married and committed individuals (n = 1,798) were drawn from a nationally representative sample, the MIDUS. We found that advice seeking predicted psychological well-being and marital risk, but that the relationships depended on the availability of resources (i.e., financial stability, support, strain) and from whom support or strain was received. For example, for individuals lacking financial stability, marital risk decreased with advice seeking for those reporting high support from friends, whereas for individuals with financial stability, marital risk increased with advice seeking for those reporting high support from friends. We explain how understanding advice seeking and its outcomes must be considered within the context of available resources (or lack thereof).     

The Importance of Therapist/Client Ethnic/Racial Matching in Couples Treatment for Domestic Violence

Outcome research indicates a relative degree of variability regarding the effectiveness of client and therapist ethnic/racial matching (see Cabral and Smith 2011; Shin et al. in J Couns Psychol 52(1):45–56, 2005). Considering these findings, our study hopes to further understand the complexity behind ethnic/racial matching in treatment. In this study, we examined interviews with clients and therapists regarding ethnic/racial matching in couples treatment for domestic violence (e.g., McCollum and Stith in Violence Vict 23(2):187–201, 2008). Our findings indicated that ethnic/racial matching is a complex multi-faceted issue and connected ethnic/racial matching with issues of culture, human experience, and others. We recommend clinicians consider the complexity of ethnic/racial matching in practice.