Inductive inference in the limit for first-order sentences

The paper investigates learning functions for first order languages. Several types of convergence and identification in the limit are defined. Positive and negative results on learning problems are presented throughout the paper.     

Incompatible empirically equivalent theories: A structural explication

The thesis of the empirical underdetermination of theories (U-thesis) maintains that there are incompatible theories which are empirically equivalent. Whether this is an interesting thesis depends on how the term incompatible is understood. In this paper a structural explication is proposed. More precisely, the U-thesis is studied in the framework of the model theoretic or emantic approach according to which theories are not to be taken as linguistic entities, but rather as families of mathematical structures. Theories of similarity structures are studied as a paradigmatic case. The structural approach further reveals that the U-thesis is related to problems of uniqueness in the representational theory of measurement, questions of geometric conventionalism, and problems of structural underdetermination in mathematics.I'd like to thank three anonymous referees for valuable comments on earlier versions of this paper and Thomas E. Uebel for linguistic advice.     

Testing psychological theories about inference making

Two contrasting views about elaborative inferences in text comprehension are that they occur as the text is read and that they are deferred until they are made necessary by a question about the inferable information. This paper develops these views in greater detail and examines some of their consequences. The model of memory performance underlying the first of these theories has two quite different interpretations: the standard one and one in which inferable information, whether it is implicit or explicit in a text, is not encoded into memory for content. Two experiments are reported. The results are not consistent with the most straightforward interpretation of the claim that inferences are always deferred. However, that theory can be modified so that it makes the same predictions as its rivals. The various interpretations of the formal model underlying all three accounts of inference making can be distinguished only in terms of parsimony, explanatory adequacy, and their ability to handle results from other experimental paradigms, such as sentence verification.     

Theoretical inference and the new psychoanalytic theories of infancy.

Psychoanalytic developmental theory has been profoundly influenced by recent observational research on infants. Although it is commonly held that these new data refute earlier theories of infancy, an examination of the evidence indicates otherwise. Much of the disagreement between the two is based on differences over the definition of such concepts as "self" and "self/other differentiation" and over strategies of theoretical inference. Inferences about the subjective experience of infants are best viewed as theoretical postulates rather than empirical statements or metaphors.     

The dynamics of empirically derived factors in the therapeutic relationship

The therapeutic relationship is the source of major concepts in psychoanalytic clinical theory. Such concepts as resistance, transference, countertransference, and the alliance are fundamental, even though there may be shifts in meaning between theoretical schools and clinical contexts. In the clinical psychoanalytic literature, disagreement exists over the nature of the alliance and its essential components. Empirical studies using reliable patient, therapist, and observer scales to assess the alliance demonstrate a correlation with psychotherapeutic gains. In the study reported here, thirteen patients were followed for 6 to 33 months of psychodynamic psychotherapy, during which time their views of the therapeutic relationship were assessed, and several experiential measures taken, all on a weekly basis. Statistical analyses reveal that the therapeutic relationship, as reflected in the patients' weekly responses to the St. Louis Therapeutic Relationship Rating Scale, has four distinct components: therapeutic alliance, resistance, transference love, and negative transference. On a week-by-week basis, the therapeutic alliance was the strongest predictor of improvement in patient-reported general adjustment, as reflected in such areas as self-esteem, positive affect, social relations, work productivity, satisfaction, and optimism. Time plots of the variables show the typical time course for the components of the therapeutic relationship, as well as for improvement on the experiential variables. Results indicate that the therapeutic alliance, transference, and resistance are central components of the psychotherapeutic relationship, which in turn predict the ongoing life experience of the patient.     

Inductive inference or inductive behavior: Fisher and Neyman-Pearson approaches to statistical testing in psychological research (1940-1960)

The application of statistical testing in psychological research over the period of 1940-1960 is examined in order to address psychologists' reconciliation of the extant controversy between the Fisher and Neyman-Pearson approaches. Textbooks of psychological statistics and the psychological journal literature are reviewed to examine the presence of what Gigerenzer (1993) called a hybrid model of statistical testing. Such a model is present in the textbooks, although the mathematically incomplete character of this model precludes the appearance of a similarly hybridized approach to statistical testing in the research literature. The implications of this hybrid model for psychological research and the statistical testing controversy are discussed.     

Promotion of empirically validated psychotherapies in counselling psychology

The extent to which psychotherapies have empirical support is a long-standing and controversial issue in counselling psychology. Recently, the American Psychological Association Division of Clinical Psychology (Division 12) established a task force on Promotion and Dissemination of Psychological Procedures. The role of the task force was to define empirically validated treatment and make recommendations in relation to methods for educating mental health professionals, third party payers and the public about effective psychotherapies. The findings and recommendations of the task force are brought to the attention of readers. We believe that counselling psychologists should be proactive in the promotion of empirically validated psychotherapies.     

An empirically feasible approach to the epistemology of arithmetic

Recent years have seen an explosion of empirical data concerning arithmetical cognition. In this paper that data is taken to be philosophically important and an outline for an empirically feasible epistemological theory of arithmetic is presented. The epistemological theory is based on the empirically well-supported hypothesis that our arithmetical ability is built on a protoarithmetical ability to categorize observations in terms of quantities that we have already as infants and share with many nonhuman animals. It is argued here that arithmetical knowledge developed in such a way cannot be totally conceptual in the sense relevant to the philosophy of arithmetic, but neither can arithmetic understood to be empirical. Rather, we need to develop a contextual a priori notion of arithmetical knowledge that preserves the special mathematical characteristics without ignoring the roots of arithmetical cognition. Such a contextual a priori theory is shown not to require any ontologically problematic assumptions, in addition to fitting well within a standard framework of general epistemology.     

Fakability of an empirically derived selection instrument

Fakability of an empirically derived selection instrument developed by criterion-keying for a specific occupation and organization was investigated. Ninety-four subjects completed the test under both Honest and Fake instructions. Instructions to simulate a highly motivated job applicant produced significant score increases on 7 of 10 scales and significant changes in narrative statements of predicted job performance based on these scores. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. The caveat to use tests only when the subject is motivated to answer honestly is repeated.     

Effectiveness of an empirically supported treatment for social phobia in the field

This study examined the effectiveness of individual exposure combined with cognitive restructuring for social phobia in a clinical setting as well as the influence of sample restriction criteria on the effect size. Participants were 217 unselected patients with a primary diagnosis of social phobia who were treated by 57 therapists in four outpatient clinics of the Christoph-Dornier-Foundation of Clinical Psychology in Germany. Results 6 weeks after the end of therapy showed highly significant reductions in social phobic fears and avoidance as well as in general anxiety and symptoms of depression. However, patients who dropped out during therapy reported a significantly higher degree of depression. Results did not differ between the four outpatient clinics and are comparable with the average effect-sizes reported by meta-analytic studies of controlled efficacy research, using selected patients. Also, restricting the sample according to the selection criteria often applied in research settings did not result in higher effect sizes for the applied outcome measures. We conclude that individual cognitive behavioural therapy for social phobia can be transported from research settings to the field of mental health.     

Inductive Reasoning in Alzheimer''s Disease

We evaluated knowledge of basic level and superordinate semantic relations and the role of cognitive resources during inductive reasoning in probable Alzheimer's disease (AD). Nineteen mildly demented AD patients and 17 healthy control subjects judged the truthfulness of arguments with a premise and a conclusion that contain familiar concepts coupled with "blank" predicates, such as "Spiders contain phosphatidylcholine; therefore all insects contain phosphatidylcholine." Like healthy control subjects, AD patients were relatively insensitive to the typicality of the premise category when judging the strength of arguments with a conclusion containing a basic-level concept, but were relatively sensitive to typicality during judgments of arguments containing a superordinate in the conclusion. Moreover, AD patients resembled control subjects in judging arguments with an immediate superordinate in the conclusion compared to arguments with a distant superordinate. AD patients differed from control subjects because they could not take advantage of two premises in an argument containing basic-level concepts. We conclude that semantic knowledge is sufficiently preserved in AD to support inductive reasoning, but that limited cognitive resources may interfere with AD patients' ability to consider the entire spectrum of information available during semantic challenges.     

Explication of Inductive Probability

Inductive probability is the logical concept of probability in ordinary language. It is vague but it can be explicated by defining a clear and precise concept that can serve some of the same purposes. This paper presents a general method for doing such an explication and then a particular explication due to Carnap. Common criticisms of Carnap’s inductive logic are examined; it is shown that most of them are spurious and the others are not fundamental.