人格特质及脑功能连接对社交网络的影响

采用网络分析的方法, 本研究从个体受欢迎程度和个体间亲密程度两方面探究了人格特质对社交网络的影响, 并在此基础上进一步探究了个体间大脑静息态功能连接相似性和社交网络的关系。结果发现：(1)高尽责性的个体在需要“值得信任”特质的社交网络中更受欢迎, 高宜人性的个体在需要“共享时光”的社交网络中更受欢迎; (2)在需要“相同兴趣”特质的社交网络中, 个体间人格相似性和社会距离呈显著负相关关系; (3)同样在需要“相同兴趣”特质的社交网络中, 个体间部分功能连接相似性与社会距离呈显著负相关关系, 这些功能连接主要集中在额顶控制网络以及背侧注意网络; 同时, 部分节点功能连接相似性与社会距离呈显著正相关关系, 这些功能连接主要集中在默认网络。研究结果揭示了人格特质对不同社交网络结构的影响, 以及个体间人格特质相似性和静息态脑网络相似性与社会距离的关系。本研究对理解社交网络的结构, 形成规律以及其中的信息传播规律有着重要启示意义。     

时间感知在跨期决策中的作用——时间决策模型的新探索

“时间”是跨期决策的“必需品”, 人们感知到的延迟时间决定跨期决策的结果。近年来, 研究者发现“时间长度感知”、“时间资源感知”和“时间框架感知”是时间感知作用于跨期决策的主要方式。时间感知的神经作用机制包含微观层面和宏观层面两种。“对数/指数时间折扣模型”、“感知时间基础模型”及“多模态漂移扩散模型”解释了时间感知的作用方式。然而, 现有理论模型还存在诸多局限, 主要包括“长短时距预测偏差”和“实际决策与预期决策偏差”两个方面。因此, 深入探讨时间感知影响跨期决策的基本方式, 分析现有理论模型的局限性并提出整合的机制框架具有十分重要的意义。未来研究亟需进一步整合时间感知的理论模型, 开展脑机制与应用方面的研究, 从深层揭露时间感知的作用本质, 帮助个人与社会更理性地决策。     

如何描述发展趋势的差异：潜变量混合增长模型

在追踪研究中,研究者不仅关心某一特质随时间的发展趋势,而且关注个体之间发展趋势的差异及其存在差异的原因。在总体发展同质的情形下,多层线性模型和潜变量增长曲线模型为解决这一问题提供了切实有效的方法。但是如果所研究的总体本身不同质,就需要一种能够描述总体中不同质子总体的不同发展特点的方法。该文简要介绍了一种能够描述不同群体不同发展趋势特征的统计模型——潜变量混合增长模型,并通过一个实际例子介绍了这一方法的应用过程,同时说明了潜变量混合增长模型与多层线性模型和潜变量增长曲线模型之间的关系     

“大五”人格剖面：以个体为中心的研究路径

“大五”人格剖面是“大五”人格特质在个体上的高低组合, 充分考虑了人格特质之间的交互作用, 能够反映不同子群体在“大五”人格特质上的数量与质量差异, 是解释以往以变量为中心矛盾性结论的重要途径, 也更契合组织管理实践需要, 对实践有更强的指导意义。“大五”人格剖面数量受到研究情境、样本特征、研究方法等因素的影响, 基于自我适应-自我管理模型可以获取4剖面模型, 且常见的剖面包括灵活适应剖面、普通剖面与执拗剖面。“大五”人格剖面在研究中更多地扮演自变量角色, 探讨其在关键结果变量上是否存在差异。未来可以关注强化“大五”人格剖面研究的理论基础; 加强重复性研究, 识别普适性“大五”人格剖面; 识别“大五”人格剖面的影响因素; 纳入更多人格变量, 更完整刻画人格剖面。     

何以近朱者赤、近墨者黑?特质激活理论的缘起、现状和未来

特质激活理论旨在阐明适宜的外部情境如何激活个体的内在特质, 以及这种激活如何促使潜藏的隐性特质表达出显性的行为。文章综述了特质激活理论, 剖析了其从思想诞生到基准模型, 再到拓展模型的两次飞跃, 重点阐释了情境分层、情境特征、激活后果的反馈等系统, 辨析了特质激活的内涵及其与“人-环境”匹配理论、与情境强度理论的异同, 从深化验证、拓展现有理论模型等视角提出未来研究走向。     

纵向数据的中介效应分析

目前中介效应检验主要是基于截面数据,但许多时候截面数据的中介分析不适合进行因果推断,因而需要收集历时性的纵向数据,进行纵向数据的中介分析。评介了基于交叉滞后面板模型、多层线性模型和潜变量增长模型的纵向数据的中介分析方法及其四个发展。第一,中介效应随时间变化,如连续时间模型、多层时变系数模型。第二,中介效应随个体变化,如随机效应的交叉滞后面板模型和多层自回归模型。第三,中介模型的整合,如交叉滞后面板模型与多层线性模型整合为多层自回归模型。第四,中介检验方法的发展,建议使用Monte Carlo、Bootstrap和贝叶斯法进行纵向数据的中介分析。总结出一个纵向数据的中介分析流程并给出相应的Mplus程序。随后展望了纵向数据的中介分析的拓展方向。     

行为贫困陷阱的心理机制与管理对策：基于认知与动机双视角

借鉴行为经济学家开创的应用行为决策于贫困研究的新范式, 选取我国“连片特困地区”的贫困者为研究对象。首先建构“认知和动机双视角的行为贫困陷阱”的立论模型; 然后通过“贫困所致认知后果影响后继决策行为的心理机制和神经机制”, 以及“贫困所致认知和动机后果共同影响后继决策行为的作用机制”来探索贫困所致心理后果与后继决策行为间的因果效应; 最后进行“贫困所致认知功能改变影响后继决策行为的随机控制实验”和“贫困所致自我认同改变影响后继决策行为的现场干预研究”, 旨在通过“扶志和扶智”达到“授人以渔”, 并从中提炼出可供扶贫政策参考的管理对策。     

内隐创业领导与多层次积极追随力的互动机制

多层次积极追随力是创业企业成长的重要保证。已有研究强调不同显性领导对积极追随力的影响, 结论存在较多争议。对此, 以内隐领导理论为基础, 构建了“内隐创业型领导-积极追随力”的多层次互动模型。根据此模型, 内隐创业型领导通过关系认同和领导代表性对个体与团队积极追随力产生促进作用; 团队积极追随力通过积极心理资本塑造内隐创业型领导; 团队差序氛围、员工传统性和领导特质调节焦点是互动关系重要的边界条件。     

特质正念对初中生学业情绪预测偏差的影响

基于真实考试和实验室模拟情境, 考察特质正念对初中生学业情绪预测偏差的影响及其机制。结果表明：(1)学业领域存在情绪预测偏差; (2)特质正念影响情绪预测偏差, 特质正念水平高的初中生情绪预测偏差相对更小, 反之则更大; (3)注意聚焦在特质正念影响情绪预测偏差中存在中介作用。本研究初步提出正念的“扩大-联结”解释模型, 推进了学业领域情绪预测的研究, 具有良好的生态学效度和切实的教育实践价值。     

儿童抑郁水平与学业成绩的发展轨迹：基于平行潜变量增长模型

采用自我报告和教师评价对535名小学3～4年级儿童抑郁水平与学业成绩的发展状况进行了三次追踪,通过交叉滞后回归分析和平行潜变量增长模型,考察抑郁水平与学业成绩的发展轨迹及其之间的相互作用。结果发现:(1)儿童抑郁水平和学业成绩在三年中都较为稳定,三年中上一年抑郁水平可以负向预测下一年的学业成绩,反之则不能;(2)儿童学业成绩的初始水平可以负向预测抑郁水平的发展速度。研究表明:较高的学业成绩可能是抑郁水平发展过程中的保护因素,为儿童情绪健康的研究提供了新的实证依据。     

On the Mathematical Relationship Between Latent Change Score and Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Factor Approaches: Cautions for Inferring Causal Relationship Between Variables

The present paper focuses on the relationship between latent change score (LCS) and autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) factor models in longitudinal designs. These models originated from different theoretical traditions for different analytic purposes, yet they share similar mathematical forms. In this paper, we elucidate the mathematical relationship between these models and show that the LCS model is reduced to the ARCL model when fixed effects are assumed in the slope factor scores. Additionally, we provide an applied example using height and weight data from a gerontological study. Throughout the example, we emphasize caution in choosing which model (ARCL or LCS) to apply due to the risk of obtaining misleading results concerning the presence and direction of causal precedence between two variables. We suggest approaching model specification not only by comparing estimates and fit indices between the LCS and ARCL models (as well as other models) but also by giving appropriate weight to substantive and theoretical considerations, such as assessing the justifiability of the assumption of random effects in the slope factor scores.     

追踪研究中的内生性问题：来源与应对

相对于横断研究,追踪研究中更有可能同时存在多种内生性问题来源。双变量追踪研究在心理学因果分析中发挥了重要的作用,然而其中的内生性问题却未得到应有的关注,这可能会影响推论的准确性。追踪研究中内生性问题的来源视乎模型而定,主要包括遗漏变量、变量选择和样本选择、解释变量的测量误差、动态面板和变量之间的相互关系。本文以代表性追踪模型CLPM为例,展示了内生性问题的影响,讨论了在原模型中运用工具变量来建模以应对内生性问题的可行性,目的是使心理学研究者能够关注追踪研究中的内生性问题,更好地运用追踪模型进行因果分析。     

Testing the bidirectional relationship between belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and psychological distress: A five-wave longitudinal study

Previous studies have primarily focused on understanding why people believe conspiracy theories, especially during societal crises (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic). The investigation of how such conspiracy beliefs would influence people's mental well-being has just begun recently. The present research aims to address this crucial question by testing the relationships between psychological distress and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs with a five-wave longitudinal study. On the one hand, COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs could be more appealing to people with heightened distress, as these theories apparently help people to make sense of the uncertainty and life-threatening disease outbreak. On the other hand, conspiracy theories could be a source of existential threat and thus, would induce rather than reduce psychological distress. We tested these possibilities empirically by a series of cross-lagged model analyses. Using the random intercept cross-lagged panel model analysis, we only found a between-person association but not a cross-lagged within-person relationship between the two. COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs was predicted by being more politically conservative. These findings were further corroborated by the supplementary latent growth curve analyses. Overall, our findings suggest that conspiracy beliefs may not induce or reduce psychological distress in the context of COVID-19.     

Hope and self-determination of young adults in the workplace

This longitudinal field study tested positive reciprocal longitudinal interactions between components of hope theory and the satisfaction of basic psychological needs in the work environment during 3 years of vocational training. The three annual questionnaire surveys of 414 trainees in young adulthood were analyzed with latent autoregressive cross-lagged models. The tested longitudinal models provided support for a positive reciprocal feedback process between hope and the satisfaction of the need for competency. The 1 year lagged effects between hope and the needs for autonomy and relatedness were not statistically significant, but synchronous relations did exist. The study suggested that perceived vocational competencies lead to increases in hope, while the trainees’ hope in turn also had positive effects on the development of perceived vocational competencies.     

多阶段混合增长模型的影响因素：距离与形态

通过模拟研究, 考察潜类别距离和发展形态等因素对多阶段混合增长模型的模型选择和参数估计的影响：(1)潜类别距离越大, 模型选择和分类效果越好。(2)混合模型的选择, 应以一定样本量(至少200)为前提, 首先考虑BIC选出正确的分类模型, 再通过熵值、ARI等选择分类确定性较高的模型。(3)多阶段的发展形态对正确模型的选择和分类的确定性均有一定程度影响。(4)潜类别距离和样本量越大, 参数估计精度越高。(5)在判断分类准确性的指标中, ARI的选择更偏向于真实的模型。     

A Composite Likelihood Inference in Latent Variable Models for Ordinal Longitudinal Responses

The paper proposes a composite likelihood estimation approach that uses bivariate instead of multivariate marginal probabilities for ordinal longitudinal responses using a latent variable model. The model considers time-dependent latent variables and item-specific random effects to be accountable for the interdependencies of the multivariate ordinal items. Time-dependent latent variables are linked with an autoregressive model. Simulation results have shown composite likelihood estimators to have a small amount of bias and mean square error and as such they are feasible alternatives to full maximum likelihood. Model selection criteria developed for composite likelihood estimation are used in the applications. Furthermore, lower-order residuals are used as measures-of-fit for the selected models.     

(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some—but not all—of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Latent variable models for multivariate longitudinal ordinal responses

The paper proposes a full information maximum likelihood estimation method for modelling multivariate longitudinal ordinal variables. Two latent variable models are proposed that account for dependencies among items within time and between time. One model fits item‐specific random effects which account for the between time points correlations and the second model uses a common factor. The relationships between the time‐dependent latent variables are modelled with a non‐stationary autoregressive model. The proposed models are fitted to a real data set.     

Perceived behavioural control,subjective norms,attitudes and intention to use condom: A longitudinal cross-lagged design

Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), the purpose of this investigation was to examine the directionality of the association among condom use, intention, attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control. The present study investigated the nature of these relationships using a longitudinal cross-lagged design applied to data from a cohort of 958 randomly selected Italian adults. Using structural equation modelling, two cross-lagged panel analyses revealed reciprocal relationships between intention and attitudes and between intention and condom use. Contrary to expectations, baseline subjective norms and perceived behavioural control did not predict subsequent intention to use condom when controlled for the autoregressive effect of intention at T1 on the same variable at T2. Also, perceived behavioural control at T1 did not influence condom use at T2 after controlling for the effect of baseline intention. The possibility of reciprocity was also tested for all relations and significant results were found. The moderation effect of perceived behavioural control on the relationship between intention and condom use was not significant. The differences in age, gender and partnership status were taken into account in the analyses.     

错失焦虑与大学生被动性社交网站使用的交叉滞后分析

为探讨大学生错失焦虑与被动性社交网站使用间的准因果关系,采用错失焦虑量表和被动性社交网站使用量表对403名大学生进行间隔8个月的两阶段追踪调查。结果发现：(1)错失焦虑和被动性社交网站使用的自回归路径系数显著,存在风险累积效应。(2)错失焦虑与被动性社交网站使用在8个月内能够互相预测,存在强化螺旋效应。(3)错失焦虑与被动性社交网站使用的交叉滞后效应性别差异不显著,存在跨性别趋同效应。结果支持了强化螺旋模型,表明错失焦虑与大学生被动性社交网站使用能够交互影响。