Missing not at random models for latent growth curve analyses

The past decade has seen a noticeable shift in missing data handling techniques that assume a missing at random (MAR) mechanism, where the propensity for missing data on an outcome is related to other analysis variables. Although MAR is often reasonable, there are situations where this assumption is unlikely to hold, leading to biased parameter estimates. One such example is a longitudinal study of substance use where participants with the highest frequency of use also have the highest likelihood of attrition, even after controlling for other correlates of missingness. There is a large body of literature on missing not at random (MNAR) analysis models for longitudinal data, particularly in the field of biostatistics. Because these methods allow for a relationship between the outcome variable and the propensity for missing data, they require a weaker assumption about the missing data mechanism. This article describes 2 classic MNAR modeling approaches for longitudinal data: the selection model and the pattern mixture model. To date, these models have been slow to migrate to the social sciences, in part because they required complicated custom computer programs. These models are now quite easy to estimate in popular structural equation modeling programs, particularly Mplus. The purpose of this article is to describe these MNAR modeling frameworks and to illustrate their application on a real data set. Despite their potential advantages, MNAR-based analyses are not without problems and also rely on untestable assumptions. This article offers practical advice for implementing and choosing among different longitudinal models.     

Methods for Mediation Analysis with Missing Data

Despite wide applications of both mediation models and missing data techniques, formal discussion of mediation analysis with missing data is still rare. We introduce and compare four approaches to dealing with missing data in mediation analysis including listwise deletion, pairwise deletion, multiple imputation (MI), and a two-stage maximum likelihood (TS-ML) method. An R package bmem is developed to implement the four methods for mediation analysis with missing data in the structural equation modeling framework, and two real examples are used to illustrate the application of the four methods. The four methods are evaluated and compared under MCAR, MAR, and MNAR missing data mechanisms through simulation studies. Both MI and TS-ML perform well for MCAR and MAR data regardless of the inclusion of auxiliary variables and for AV-MNAR data with auxiliary variables. Although listwise deletion and pairwise deletion have low power and large parameter estimation bias in many studied conditions, they may provide useful information for exploring missing mechanisms.     

Postmodeling Sensitivity Analysis to Detect the Effect of Missing Data Mechanisms

Incomplete or missing data is a common problem in almost all areas of empirical research. It is well known that simple and ad hoc methods such as complete case analysis or mean imputation can lead to biased and/or inefficient estimates. The method of maximum likelihood works well; however, when the missing data mechanism is not one of missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), it too can result in incorrect inference. Statistical tests for MCAR have been proposed, but these are restricted to a certain class of problems. The idea of sensitivity analysis as a means to detect the missing data mechanism has been proposed in the statistics literature in conjunction with selection models where conjointly the data and missing data mechanism are modeled. Our approach is different here in that we do not model the missing data mechanism but use the data at hand to examine the sensitivity of a given model to the missing data mechanism. Our methodology is meant to raise a flag for researchers when the assumptions of MCAR (or MAR) do not hold. To our knowledge, no specific proposal for sensitivity analysis has been set forth in the area of structural equation models (SEM). This article gives a specific method for performing postmodeling sensitivity analysis using a statistical test and graphs. A simulation study is performed to assess the methodology in the context of structural equation models. This study shows success of the method, especially when the sample size is 300 or more and the percentage of missing data is 20% or more. The method is also used to study a set of real data measuring physical and social self-concepts in 463 Nigerian adolescents using a factor analysis model.     

SEM with Missing Data and Unknown Population Distributions Using Two-Stage ML: Theory and Its Application

This article provides the theory and application of the 2-stage maximum likelihood (ML) procedure for structural equation modeling (SEM) with missing data. The validity of this procedure does not require the assumption of a normally distributed population. When the population is normally distributed and all missing data are missing at random (MAR), the direct ML procedure is nearly optimal for SEM with missing data. When missing data mechanisms are unknown, including auxiliary variables in the analysis will make the missing data mechanism more likely to be MAR. It is much easier to include auxiliary variables in the 2-stage ML than in the direct ML. Based on most recent developments for missing data with an unknown population distribution, the article first provides the least technical material on why the normal distribution-based ML generates consistent parameter estimates when the missing data mechanism is MAR. The article also provides sufficient conditions for the 2-stage ML to be a valid statistical procedure in the general case. For the application of the 2-stage ML, an SAS IML program is given to perform the first-stage analysis and EQS codes are provided to perform the second-stage analysis. An example with open- and closed-book examination data is used to illustrate the application of the provided programs. One aim is for quantitative graduate students/applied psychometricians to understand the technical details for missing data analysis. Another aim is for applied researchers to use the method properly.     

基于增长模型的非随机缺失数据处理:选择模型和极大似然方法

对含有非随机缺失数据的潜变量增长模型,为了考察基于不同假设的缺失数据处理方法:极大似然(ML)方法与DiggleKenward选择模型的优劣,通过Monte Carlo模拟研究,比较两种方法对模型中增长参数估计精度及其标准误估计的差异,并考虑样本量、非随机缺失比例和随机缺失比例的影响。结果表明,符合前提假设的Diggle-Kenward选择模型的参数估计精度普遍高于ML方法;对于标准误估计值,ML方法存在一定程度的低估,得到的置信区间覆盖比率也明显低于Diggle-Kenward选择模型。     

2PLM下缺失数据处理方法及其比较

项目反应理论(IRT)是用于客观测量的现代教育与心理测量理论之一,广泛用于缺失数据十分常见的大尺度测验分析。IRT中两参数逻辑斯蒂克模型(2PLM)下仅有完全随机缺失机制下缺失反应和缺失能力处理的EM算法。本研究推导2PLM下缺失反应忽略的EM 算法,并提出随机缺失机制下缺失反应和缺失能力处理的EM算法和考虑能力估计和作答反应不确定性的多重借补法。研究显示：在各种缺失机制、缺失比例和测验设计下,缺失反应忽略的EM算法和多重借补法表现理想。     

LGM模型中缺失数据处理方法的比较:ML方法与Diggle-Kenward选择模型

追踪研究中缺失数据十分常见。本文通过Monte Carlo模拟研究,考察基于不同前提假设的Diggle-Kenward选择模型和ML方法对增长参数估计精度的差异,并考虑样本量、缺失比例、目标变量分布形态以及不同缺失机制的影响。结果表明:(1)缺失机制对基于MAR的ML方法有较大的影响,在MNAR缺失机制下,基于MAR的ML方法对LGM模型中截距均值和斜率均值的估计不具有稳健性。(2)DiggleKenward选择模型更容易受到目标变量分布偏态程度的影响,样本量与偏态程度存在交互作用,样本量较大时,偏态程度的影响会减弱。而ML方法仅在MNAR机制下轻微受到偏态程度的影响。     

Abstract: Evaluation of Test Statistics for Robust Structural Equation Modeling With Nonnormal Missing Data

Traditional structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques have trouble dealing with incomplete and/or nonnormal data that are often encountered in practice. Yuan and Zhang (2011a) developed a two-stage procedure for SEM to handle nonnormal missing data and proposed four test statistics for overall model evaluation. Although these statistics have been shown to work well with complete data, their performance for incomplete data has not been investigated in the context of robust statistics.

Focusing on a linear growth curve model, a systematic simulation study is conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the parameter estimates and the performance of five test statistics including the naive statistic derived from normal distribution based maximum likelihood (ML), the Satorra-Bentler scaled chi-square statistic (RML), the mean- and variance-adjusted chi-square statistic (AML), Yuan-Bentler residual-based test statistic (CRADF), and Yuan-Bentler residual-based F statistic (RF). Data are generated and analyzed in R using the package rsem (Yuan & Zhang, 2011b).

Based on the simulation study, we can observe the following: (a) The traditional normal distribution-based method cannot yield accurate parameter estimates for nonnormal data, whereas the robust method obtains much more accurate model parameter estimates for nonnormal data and performs almost as well as the normal distribution based method for normal distributed data. (b) With the increase of sample size, or the decrease of missing rate or the number of outliers, the parameter estimates are less biased and the empirical distributions of test statistics are closer to their nominal distributions. (c) The ML test statistic does not work well for nonnormal or missing data. (d) For nonnormal complete data, CRADF and RF work relatively better than RML and AML. (e) For missing completely at random (MCAR) missing data, in almost all the cases, RML and AML work better than CRADF and RF. (f) For nonnormal missing at random (MAR) missing data, CRADF and RF work better than AML. (g) The performance of the robust method does not seem to be influenced by the symmetry of outliers.     

认知诊断缺失数据处理方法的比较：零替换、多重插补与极大似然估计法

数据缺失在测验中经常发生, 认知诊断评估也不例外, 数据缺失会导致诊断结果的偏差。首先, 通过模拟研究在多种实验条件下比较了常用的缺失数据处理方法。结果表明：(1)缺失数据导致估计精确性下降, 随着人数与题目数量减少、缺失率增大、题目质量降低, 所有方法的PCCR均下降, Bias绝对值和RMSE均上升。(2)估计题目参数时, EM法表现最好, 其次是MI, FIML和ZR法表现不稳定。(3)估计被试知识状态时, EM和FIML表现最好, MI和ZR表现不稳定。其次, 在PISA2015实证数据中进一步探索了不同方法的表现。综合模拟和实证研究结果, 推荐选用EM或FIML法进行缺失数据处理。     

Modeling Concordance Correlation Coefficient for Longitudinal Study Data

Measures of agreement are used in a wide range of behavioral, biomedical, psychosocial, and health-care related research to assess reliability of diagnostic test, psychometric properties of instrument, fidelity of psychosocial intervention, and accuracy of proxy outcome. The concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is a popular measure of agreement for continuous outcomes. In modern-day applications, data are often clustered, making inference difficult to perform using existing methods. In addition, as longitudinal study designs become increasingly popular, missing data have become a serious issue, and the lack of methods to systematically address this problem has hampered the progress of research in the aforementioned fields. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to tackle the complexities involved in addressing missing data and other related issues for performing CCC analysis within a longitudinal data setting. The approach is illustrated with both real and simulated data.     

Bias in longitudinal data analysis with missing data using typical linear mixed‐effects modelling and pattern‐mixture approach: An analytical illustration

We analytically derive the fixed‐effects estimates in unconditional linear growth curve models by typical linear mixed‐effects modelling (TLME) and by a pattern‐mixture (PM) approach with random‐slope‐dependent two‐missing‐pattern missing not at random (MNAR) longitudinal data. Results showed that when the missingness mechanism is random‐slope‐dependent MNAR, TLME estimates of both the mean intercept and mean slope are biased because of incorrect weights used in the estimation. More specifically, the estimate of the mean slope is biased towards the mean slope for completers, whereas the estimate of the mean intercept is biased towards the opposite direction as compared to the estimate of the mean slope. We also discuss why the PM approach can provide unbiased fixed‐effects estimates for random‐coefficients‐dependent MNAR data but does not work well for missing at random or outcome‐dependent MNAR data. A small simulation study was conducted to illustrate the results and to compare results from TLME and PM. Results from an empirical data analysis showed that the conceptual finding can be generalized to other real conditions even when some assumptions for the analytical derivation cannot be met. Implications from the analytical and empirical results were discussed and sensitivity analysis was suggested for longitudinal data analysis with missing data.     

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Mediation Effects With Missing Data

Methodologists have developed mediation analysis techniques for a broad range of substantive applications, yet methods for estimating mediating mechanisms with missing data have been understudied. This study outlined a general Bayesian missing data handling approach that can accommodate mediation analyses with any number of manifest variables. Computer simulation studies showed that the Bayesian approach produced frequentist coverage rates and power estimates that were comparable to those of maximum likelihood with the bias-corrected bootstrap. We share an SAS macro that implements Bayesian estimation and use 2 data analysis examples to demonstrate its use.     

Asymptotic bias of normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood estimates of moderation effects with data missing at random

Moderation analysis is useful for addressing interesting research questions in social sciences and behavioural research. In practice, moderated multiple regression (MMR) models have been most widely used. However, missing data pose a challenge, mainly because the interaction term is a product of two or more variables and thus is a non-linear function of the involved variables. Normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) has been proposed and applied for estimating MMR models with incomplete data. When data are missing completely at random, moderation effect estimates are consistent. However, simulation results have found that when data in the predictor are missing at random (MAR), NML can yield inaccurate estimates of moderation effects when the moderation effects are non-null. Simulation studies are subject to the limitation of confounding systematic bias with sampling errors. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to analytically derive asymptotic bias of NML estimates of moderation effects with MAR data. Results show that when the moderation effect is zero, there is no asymptotic bias in moderation effect estimates with either normal or non-normal data. When the moderation effect is non-zero, however, asymptotic bias may exist and is determined by factors such as the moderation effect size, missing-data proportion, and type of missingness dependence. Our analytical results suggest that researchers should apply NML to MMR models with caution when missing data exist. Suggestions are given regarding moderation analysis with missing data.     

新世纪20年国内心理统计方法研究回顾

新世纪头20年, 国内心理学11本专业期刊一共发表了213篇统计方法研究论文。研究范围主要包括以下10类(按论文篇数排序)：结构方程模型、测验信度、中介效应、效应量与检验力、纵向研究、调节效应、探索性因子分析、潜在类别模型、共同方法偏差和多层线性模型。对各类做了简单的回顾与梳理。结果发现, 国内心理统计方法研究的广度和深度都不断增加, 研究热点在相互融合中共同发展; 但综述类论文比例较大, 原创性研究论文比例有待提高, 研究力量也有待加强。     

Finite Mixtures of Hidden Markov Models for Longitudinal Responses Subject to Drop out

Abstract

Drop out is a typical issue in longitudinal studies. When the missingness is non-ignorable, inference based on the observed data only may be biased. This paper is motivated by the Leiden 85+ study, a longitudinal study conducted to analyze the dynamics of cognitive functioning in the elderly. We account for dependence between longitudinal responses from the same subject using time-varying random effects associated with a heterogeneous hidden Markov chain. As several participants in the study drop out prematurely, we introduce a further random effect model to describe the missing data mechanism. The potential dependence between the random effects in the two equations (and, therefore, between the two processes) is introduced through a joint distribution specified via a latent structure approach. The application of the proposal to data from the Leiden 85+ study shows its effectiveness in modeling heterogeneous longitudinal patterns, possibly influenced by the missing data process. Results from a sensitivity analysis show the robustness of the estimates with respect to misspecification of the missing data mechanism. A simulation study provides evidence for the reliability of the inferential conclusions drawn from the analysis of the Leiden 85+ data.     

基于结构方程模型的有调节的中介效应分析

有调节的中介模型是中介过程受到调节变量影响的模型。指出了目前有调节的中介效应分析普遍存在的问题：当前有调节的中介效应检验大多使用多元线性回归分析,忽略了测量误差;而基于结构方程模型(SEM)的有调节的中介效应分析需要产生乘积指标,又会面临乘积指标生成和乘积项非正态分布的问题。在简介潜调节结构方程(LMS)方法后,建议使用LMS方法得到偏差校正的bootstrap置信区间来进行基于SEM的有调节的中介效应分析。总结出一个有调节的中介SEM分析流程,并有示例和相应的Mplus程序。文末展望了LMS和有调节的中介模型的发展方向。     

Latent Growth Models with Floors,Ceilings, and Random Knots

In longitudinal/developmental studies, individual growth trajectories are sometimes bounded by a floor at the beginning of the observation period and/or a ceiling toward the end of the observation period (or vice versa), resulting in inherently nonlinear growth patterns. If the trajectories between the floor and ceiling are approximately linear, such longitudinal growth patterns can be described with a linear piecewise (spline) model in which segments join at knots. In these scenarios, it may be of specific interest for researchers to examine the timing when transition occurs, and in some occasions also to examine the levels of the floors and/or ceilings if they are not known and fixed. In the current study, we propose a reparameterized piecewise latent growth curve model so that a direct estimation of the random knots (and, if needed, a direct estimation of random floors and ceilings) is possible. We derive the model reparameterization using a 4-step structured latent curve modeling approach. We provide two illustrative examples to demonstrate how the proposed reparameterized models can be fitted to longitudinal growth data using the popular SEM software Mplus and we supply the full coding for applied researchers’ reference.     

A general approach to causal mediation analysis

Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the inability to specify the key identification assumption, and the difficulty of extending the framework to nonlinear models. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that overcomes these limitations. Our approach is general because it offers the definition, identification, estimation, and sensitivity analysis of causal mediation effects without reference to any specific statistical model. Further, our approach explicitly links these 4 elements closely together within a single framework. As a result, the proposed framework can accommodate linear and nonlinear relationships, parametric and nonparametric models, continuous and discrete mediators, and various types of outcome variables. The general definition and identification result also allow us to develop sensitivity analysis in the context of commonly used models, which enables applied researchers to formally assess the robustness of their empirical conclusions to violations of the key assumption. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the Job Search Intervention Study. We also offer easy-to-use software that implements all our proposed methods.     

Pairwise likelihood estimation for confirmatory factor analysis models with categorical variables and data that are missing at random

Methods for the treatment of item non-response in attitudinal scales and in large-scale assessments under the pairwise likelihood (PL) estimation framework and under a missing at random (MAR) mechanism are proposed. Under a full information likelihood estimation framework and MAR, ignorability of the missing data mechanism does not lead to biased estimates. However, this is not the case for pseudo-likelihood approaches such as the PL. We develop and study the performance of three strategies for incorporating missing values into confirmatory factor analysis under the PL framework, the complete-pairs (CP), the available-cases (AC) and the doubly robust (DR) approaches. The CP and AC require only a model for the observed data and standard errors are easy to compute. Doubly-robust versions of the PL estimation require a predictive model for the missing responses given the observed ones and are computationally more demanding than the AC and CP. A simulation study is used to compare the proposed methods. The proposed methods are employed to analyze the UK data on numeracy and literacy collected as part of the OECD Survey of Adult Skills.     

Neuropsychological changes in children with cancer: The treatment of missing data in longitudinal studies

Researchers conducting longitudinal studies with children or adults are inevitably confronted with problems of attrition and missing data. Missing data in longitudinal studies is frequently handled by excluding from analyses those cases for whom data are incomplete. This approach to missing data is not optimal. On the one hand, if data are missing at random, then dropping incomplete cases ignores information collected on those cases that could be used to improve estimates of population parameters (e.g., means, variances, covariances, and growth rates) and improve the power of significance tests of statistical hypotheses. On the other hand, if data are not missing at random, then dropping incomplete cases leads to biased parameter estimates and hypothesis tests that may be internally and externally invalid. This study uses three years of follow-up data from a longitudinal investigation of neuropsychological outcomes of cancer in children to demonstrate the problems presented by missing data in repeated measures designs and some solutions. In evaluating potential biasing effects of attrition, the study extends previous research on neuropsychological outcomes in pediatric cancer by inclusion of patients whose disease had relapsed, and by comparison of surviving and nonsurviving patients. Although the data presented have specific relevance to the study of neuropsychological outcome in pediatric cancer, the problems of missing data and the solutions presented are relevant to a wide variety of diseases and conditions of interest to researchers in child and adult neuropsychology.