A mediating role for anticipated regret in predicting retirement savings intention between groups with (without) past behaviour

A recent global trend has been the shifting of responsibility for retirement income planning from the public purse to individuals, with an associated encouragement to contribute more to retirement savings. This research investigated the influence of anticipated regret on the intention to make extra voluntary retirement savings. Results revealed that anticipated regret plays a powerful affective role in the formation of behavioural intention by conveying the influence of attitude and subjective norm to intention. Implications of the results with respect to possible interventions relating to behaviour change are considered.     

青少年情绪预测偏差与决策的关系研究

在决策过程中人们通常选择那些使其感到快乐的行为,决策结果与所预测的高兴或悲伤、满意或不满意紧密相连,以往研究发现这类预测即情绪预测存在偏差。本研究以188名中小学生为被试,采用自编情绪评定表和最后通牒游戏范式,对情绪预测偏差与决策的关系进行探索。结果表明青少年在预测对未来事件的情绪反应时存在强度偏差和持续时间偏差,情绪预测的强度偏差和持续时间偏差影响青少年回避或趋向决策。     

Addressing Value‐Based Conflicts Within the Counseling Relationship: A Decision‐Making Model

A growing number of legal and ethical cases have involved value conflicts between counselors, or counselors‐in‐training, and their clients. The authors examine considerations that professional counselors are encouraged to take into account when value conflicts arise within the therapeutic relationship. The authors present a strategy known as ethical bracketing and the Counselor Values‐Based Conflict Model as tools to use when facing conflicts that arise between personal and professional values.     

Evidence coverage and argument skills: cognitive factors in a juror's verdict choice

Juror reasoning and verdict choice have been explored variously as functions of argument skill and the overall story representation of the evidence on which verdict choices are based. This study investigates the proportion of testimony covered in the justification of a verdict choice and its relationship with argument skill, narrative explanation or evidence‐based argument, and certainty about verdict choice. Each of these variables was also compared with the verdict choice. People serving jury duty justified verdict choices in two abridged jury trials. Individuals were consistent in the relative amount of evidence used in both trials. Argument skills, evidence evaluation type, and evidence synthesis type all accounted for variance in the amount of evidence covered. Evidence coverage, along with argument skills, predicted verdict choice. As expected, those most certain about verdict choice did not use the most evidence. Implications regarding mediating factors in story construction and juror decision making are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The determinants of Portuguese preference for vehicle automation: A descriptive and explanatory study

During the last century, innovation of automated vehicles (AVs) technologies are successively maturing while progressively excluding the human intervention in vehicle driving. The objective of this paper was to analyze the determinants of Portuguese drivers’ decision to adopt AVs technologies, in an under explored context, where the driver of contemporary vehicles does all or part of the dynamic driving task (DDT) in comparison to vehicles equipped with Automated Driving systems (ADS) where the driver can become a passenger temporarily or permanently. In addition, willingness-to-pay for ADS estimates were also investigated. This study data was collected through a survey designed and deployed in Portugal. A mixed logit model was estimated, and the results obtained are in line with the literature of AVs in a number of determinants, but also highlights differences that can be explained by the Portuguese cultural, social and economic context. Overall, 83.7% of the Portuguese drivers favor contemporary vehicles, today, and among those who prefer vehicles with ADS, highly educated drivers’ are willing to pay, on average, 65,671 € for Conditional AVs, 31,185 € for Highly AVs, and about 28,622 € for Full AVs.     

A neural cognitive model of argumentation with application to legal inference and decision making

Formal models of argumentation have been investigated in several areas, from multi-agent systems and artificial intelligence (AI) to decision making, philosophy and law. In artificial intelligence, logic-based models have been the standard for the representation of argumentative reasoning. More recently, the standard logic-based models have been shown equivalent to standard connectionist models. This has created a new line of research where (i) neural networks can be used as a parallel computational model for argumentation and (ii) neural networks can be used to combine argumentation, quantitative reasoning and statistical learning. At the same time, non-standard logic models of argumentation started to emerge. In this paper, we propose a connectionist cognitive model of argumentation that accounts for both standard and non-standard forms of argumentation. The model is shown to be an adequate framework for dealing with standard and non-standard argumentation, including joint-attacks, argument support, ordered attacks, disjunctive attacks, meta-level attacks, self-defeating attacks, argument accrual and uncertainty. We show that the neural cognitive approach offers an adequate way of modelling all of these different aspects of argumentation. We have applied the framework to the modelling of a public prosecution charging decision as part of a real legal decision making case study containing many of the above aspects of argumentation. The results show that the model can be a useful tool in the analysis of legal decision making, including the analysis of what-if questions and the analysis of alternative conclusions. The approach opens up two new perspectives in the short-term: the use of neural networks for computing prevailing arguments efficiently through the propagation in parallel of neuronal activations, and the use of the same networks to evolve the structure of the argumentation network through learning (e.g. to learn the strength of arguments from data).     

An investigation of the role of scale values in the DS/AHP method of multi‐criteria decision making

DS/AHP is a method of multi‐criteria decision making based on the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and the analytic hierarchy process. Central to the utilization of DS/AHP is the composing of preference judgements on identified groups of decision alternatives (DA) across a number of criteria against all the DA present in the problem in question. This paper exposits a series of results whose objectives are to aid in the development of an effective set of preference scale values for use within DS/AHP. These results relate directly to the concomitant level of ignorance (uncertainty) with the judgements made on a single criterion. Two particular directions of investigation are undertaken, firstly in determining the necessary number of scale values available and secondly finding the necessary differences between scale values, dependent on whether an arithmetic or geometric progression is the basis for the scale values. Through an example, the implications and utilization of these results within DS/AHP are illustrated. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Characteristic Objects Method: A New Distance‐based Approach to Multicriteria Decision‐making Problems

Multicriteria decision‐making (MCDM) methods are concerned with the ranking of alternatives based on expert judgements made using a number of criteria. In the MCDM field, the distance‐based approach is one popular method for obtaining a final ranking. The technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) is a commonly used example of this kind of MCDM method. The TOPSIS ranks the alternatives with respect to their geometric distance from the positive and negative ideal solutions. Unfortunately, two reference points are often insufficient, especially for nonlinear problems. As a consequence of this situation, the final result ranking is prone to errors, including the rank reversals phenomenon. This study proposes a new distance‐based MCDM method: the characteristic objects method. In this approach, the preferences of each alternative are obtained on the basis of the distance from the nearest characteristic objects and their values. For this purpose, we have determined the domain and Fuzzy number set for all the considered criteria. The characteristic objects are obtained as the combination of the crisp values of all the Fuzzy numbers. The preference values of all the characteristic object are determined on the basis of the tournament method and the principle of indifference. Finally, the Fuzzy model is constructed and is used to calculate preference values of the alternatives, making it a multicriteria model that is free of rank reversal. The numerical example is used to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method with respect to results from the TOPSIS method. The characteristic objects method results are more realistic than the TOPSIS results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Decision‐Making Model for Addressing Problematic Behaviors in Counseling Students

Gatekeeping is the subject of continued discourse in the counseling profession. With revisions to the ACA Code of Ethics (American Counseling Association, 2014 ), recent litigation (Keeton v. Anderson‐Wiley, 2010 ; Ward v. Wilbanks, 2009 ), and focused attention on value conflicts in counseling (Francis & Dugger, 2014 ), counselor educators' role as gatekeepers is expanding. In addition to this expanding role, counselor educators are responsible for being culturally and developmentally sensitive in interpreting, applying, and enforcing the codes and standards with counseling students. This article proposes a decision‐making model that integrates feminist, multicultural, systems theory, and social‐constructivist ethical decision‐making principles to address problematic behaviors in counseling students.     

To Act or Not to Act: Nonconsequentialism in Environmental Decision-Making

Research on environmental-decision making is usually based on utilitarian models, which imply that people's decisions are only influenced by the outcomes. This research provides evidence for values and moral positions that reflect nonconsequentialist rather than consequentialist views. In doing this, this article refers to “sacred values,” which are values that are seen as not-substitutable and nontradable. Two studies were designed to examine evidence for sacred values and their role on act versus omission choices within the environmental domain. The studies revealed that sacred values were closely associated with preferences for actions, trade-off reluctance, deontological focus, and position of moral universalism. The results suggest that it is important to account for sacred values and nonconsequentialist views in environmental decision-making research.     

An application of the prototype willingness model to drivers' speeding behaviour

We tested the prototype willingness model (PWM). The participants (N = 198) completed online questionnaire measures of PWM constructs (Time 1) and subsequent speeding behaviour (Time 2). Path analyses showed that the PWM accounted for 89% of the variance in subsequent (self‐reported) speeding behaviour. This significantly exceeded the variance accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. In line with the PWM, both behavioural intention and behavioural willingness had direct effects on behaviour. Behavioural willingness had a significantly larger effect. Attitude and subjective norm both had indirect effects on behaviour through both behavioural intention and behavioural willingness. Prototype (similarity) perceptions had indirect effects on behaviour through behavioural willingness only. The findings support the notion that driving is governed by reactive decision‐making (willingness), underpinned by prototype perceptions, attitudes and subjective norms, to a greater extent than it is deliberative decision‐making (intentions), underpinned by attitudes and subjective norms. The implications for safety interventions are discussed.     

保护性价值观及其对决策行为的影响

保护性价值观(protected values, PVs)是这样的一种观念:它拒绝与其他任何价值相互交易,尤其拒绝与经济价值进行交易[1]。本文对国内外有关保护性价值观及其对决策行为的影响的研究成果进行了详尽考察和评述,在此基础上,进一步提出了管理领域保护性价值观研究的设想。     

A generalized distance function for preferential choices

Many cognitive theories of judgement and decision making assume that choice options are evaluated relative to other available options. The extent to which the preference for one option is influenced by other available options will often depend on how similar the options are to each other, where similarity is assumed to be a decreasing function of the distance between options. We examine how the distance between preferential options that are described on multiple attributes can be determined. Previous distance functions do not take into account that attributes differ in their subjective importance, are limited to two attributes, or neglect the preferential relationship between the options. To measure the distance between preferential options it is necessary to take the subjective preferences of the decision maker into account. Accordingly, the multi‐attribute space that defines the relationship between options can be stretched or shrunk relative to the attention or importance that a person gives to different attributes describing the options. Here, we propose a generalized distance function for preferential choices that takes subjective attribute importance into account and allows for individual differences according to such subjective preferences. Using a hands‐on example, we illustrate the application of the function and compare it to previous distance measures. We conclude with a discussion of the suitability and limitations of the proposed distance function.     

Emotion as a tradeable quantity

Three studies investigate how physiological emotional responses can be combined with symbolic information to predict preferences. The first study used a weighted proportional difference rule to combine explicitly quantified symbolic and emotional information. The proportion of emotion model was more predictive than a simple additive emotional (AE) combination in decisions about selecting dating partners. Study 2 showed that a simple proportion algorithm of emotionally derived weights and a simple AE model predicted preference equally well for decisions between equal expected value (EV) gambles. Study 3 provided additional evidence for decision mechanisms that combine physiological measures within symbolic trade‐off algorithms for choices between diamond rings. Self‐reported emotion measures proved to be better predictors than physiological measures. The results are discussed in the context of other major models of emotional influence on preference and provide a foundation for future research on emotional decision‐making mechanisms. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the evaluation and application of different scales for quantifying pairwise comparisons in fuzzy sets

One of the most critical issues in many applications of fuzzy sets is the successful evaluation of membership values. A method based on pairwise comparisons provides an interesting way of evaluating membership values. That method was proposed by Saaty, almost 20 years ago, and since then has captured the interest of many researchers around the world. However, recent investigations reveal that the original scale may cause severe inconsistencies in many decision-making problems. Furthermore, exponential scales seem to be more natural for humans to use in many decision-making problems. In this paper two evaluative criteria are used to examine a total of 78 scales which can be derived from two widely used scales. The findings in this paper reveal that there is no single scale that can outperform all the other scales. Furthermore, the same findings indicate that a few scales are very efficient under certain conditions. Therefore, for a successful application of a pairwise-comparison-based method the appropriate scale needs to be selected and applied.     

Blind spots in the search for happiness: Implicit attitudes and nonverbal leakage predict affective forecasting errors

We investigated implicit knowledge and affective forecasting, reasoning that although conscious evaluations are available to people when predicting their future emotional responses, nonconscious evaluations are not. However, these automatically-activated evaluations should contribute to in-the-moment emotional experiences, and thus they should account for misforecasts (i.e., discrepancies between affective forecasts and actual experiences). We conducted two studies to explore affective misforecasts, using food items as stimuli. In Study 1, participants' implicit attitudes (but not their explicit attitudes) predicted misforecasts of food enjoyment, supporting the role of nonconscious evaluations in affective forecasting errors. In Study 2, we examined participants' facial expressions (another index of nonconscious evaluation) upon the presentation of food items, and we found that these nonverbal behaviors predicted affective misforecasts as well. In sum, although nonconscious evaluations are unavailable when anticipating the future, they may contribute to one's in-the-moment experiences and thus serve as blind spots in affective forecasting.     

Misreporting signs of child abuse: The role of decision‐making and outcome information

Two studies provided evidence that a decision to report an ambiguous case of child abuse affected subsequent memory of the case information, such that participants falsely recognized details that were not presented in the original information, but that are schematically associated with child abuse. Moreover, post‐decision information that the child had later died from abuse influenced the memory reports of participants who had chosen not to report the case, increasing their reports of false schema‐consistent details. This suggests that false decision‐consistent memories are primarily due to sense‐making, schematic processing rather than the motivation to justify the decision. The present findings points to an important mechanism by which decision information can become distorted in retrospect, and emphasize the difficulties of improving future decision‐making by contemplating past decisions. The results also indicate that decisions may generate false memories in the apparent absence of external suggestion or misleading information. Implications for decision‐making theory, and applied practices are discussed.     

Shared knowledge and subgroup influence during decision‐making discussions

It was predicted that preference factions within decision‐making groups would have greater influence to the extent that faction‐member preferences are based on a common pool of decision‐relevant information. Such factions are said to exhibit high informational commonality (IC). Four‐person groups decided how much money to invest in each of two pharmaceutical companies developing new cholesterol‐lowering drugs. Prior to discussion, information about these companies and drugs was distributed among members such that two would initially prefer investing in one company and two would initially prefer investing in the other company. Further, whereas half of the information held by members of one preference faction was held in common between them (high IC), almost none of the information held by those in the other faction was held in common between them (low IC). It was found that groups invested more money in a given company when that company was initially preferred by their high‐IC faction. Additionally, high‐IC factions exerted greater influence on members' private allocation preferences. These effects appear to have been due to the ability of members in the high‐IC factions to work together in a more coordinated manner to argue their position. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comment on ‘Rank Disagreement: A Comparison of Multi-Criteria Methodologies’

In a recent paper in this journal, Buede and Maxwell found reasonable agreement between MAVT and conventional AHP most preferred alternatives in a large-scale simulation. We show that MAVT would have had total agreement on preferred alternatives with two modified forms of AHP, referenced AHP and linking pin AHP, under simulation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.