An a priori solution to the replication crisis

Possibly, the replication crisis constitutes the most important problem in psychology. It calls into question whether psychology is a science. Existing conceptualizations of replicability depend on effect sizes; the larger the population effect size, the greater the probability of replication. This is problematic and contributes to the replication crisis. A different conceptualization, not dependent on population effect sizes, is desirable. The proposed solution features the closeness of sample means to their corresponding population means, in both the original and replication experiments. If the researcher has specified the sampling precision desired, it is possible to calculate the probability of replication, prior to data collection, and without dependence on the population effect size or expected population effect size. In addition, it is not necessary to know population means or standard deviations, nor sample means or standard deviations, to employ the proposed a priori way of thinking about replicability.     

The rule of three: How the third event signals the emergence of a streak

It is well established that people perceive streaks where they do not exist. However, little is known about what constitutes a streak in the mind of an observer. This paper proposes that the third repeat event in a sequence is pivotal to the subjective belief that a streak is occurring. In five studies, we find direct and indirect evidence that perceived streakiness plateaus with the third repeat outcome in a sequence. The evidence to support this rule of three comes from various domains, including: observation of randomly determined probabilistic outcomes, investment decisions in response to performance histories, and basketball shooting percentages.     

The crisis of psychoanalysis and psychoanalytical training: The suffering of the candidate on the long road towards qualifi cation1

The author assesses the impact of the so‐called ‘crisis of psychoanalysis’ on the training of candidates, and on those who accompany them through the course. Different causes of the most relevant symptom of the crisis, i.e. the diffi culty of fi nding patients for a four‐sessions‐weekly analysis, are considered. According to the author, analysts themselves must bear some of the responsibility for it. She draws attention to a number of interrelated phenomena, such as: trainees' tension in their encounters with potential analysands, due to awareness of their own needs as trainees; the necessity to accept very disturbed patients whose selection might arouse criticism from the training committee; analyses in which trainees seem to become patients' hostages because of ever‐present fears of interruption; the diffi cult construction of a psychoanalytic identity in trainees who also are in full‐time psychiatric practice; trainees' profound uncertainty about the future both of psychoanalysis in general and their own careers in particular. In agreement with Kernberg, the author stresses the importance of considering the ‘crisis of psychoanalysis’ as a phenomenon whose development may be infl uenced by the analysts themselves.     

Differentiating crisis incidents: A replication study using the action systems model

Crisis incidents are volatile situations that can pose significant risk to those involved and to law enforcement. The idiosyncratic conditions that lead to such incidents, as well as their volatility, often militate against consistent explanatory models. However, the application of overarching paradigms, such as the action systems model, has shown some promise in imposing order in the domain. Recent research has successfully differentiated crisis incidents into the four distinct modes of the action systems model: conservative, adaptive, integrative, and expressive. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to replicate this recent study using 242 cases from the United States, Ireland, Canada, and Sweden. Data analysis involves smallest space analyses and constrained multidimensional scaling. Although the results supported the underlying structure of original proposed behavioural model, there are a few deviances. These differences along with the potential influence of cultural variations, offence variable selection, the type of incident, and the sample under scrutiny are discussed. It is evident that there remain several challenges, and further research is required, prior to developing a unified framework.     

Facing the sunrise: cultural worldview underlying intrinsic-based encoding of absolute frames of reference in aymara

The Aymara of the Andes use absolute (cardinal) frames of reference for describing the relative position of ordinary objects. However, rather than encoding them in available absolute lexemes, they do it in lexemes that are intrinsic to the body: nayra (“front”) and qhipa (“back”), denoting east and west, respectively. Why? We use different but complementary ethnographic methods to investigate the nature of this encoding: (a) linguistic expressions and speech–gesture co‐production, (b) linguistic patterns in the distinct regional Spanish‐based variety Castellano Andino (CA), (c) metaphorical extensions of CA’s spatial patterns to temporal ones, and (d) layouts of traditional houses. Findings indicate that, following fundamental principles of Aymara cosmology, people, objects, and land—as a whole—are conceived as having an implicit canonical orientation facing east, a primary landmark determined by the sunrise. The above bodily based lexicalizations are thus linguistic manifestations of a broader macro‐cultural worldview and its psycho‐cognitive reality.     

Age,and midcareer crisis: An empirical study of academics

This study develops an empirical basis for examining the midcareer crisis/ transition period of academic staff surveyed by questionnaire in four Australian Universities and Colleges. A total of 672 usable returns were obtained, representing a response rate of 52% of the academic staff. Principal components and factor analysis were used to establish latent social-role variables. Analysis of variance and covariance was applied using the latent social-role variables as dependent variables and occupational attributes such as age, sex, etc., as independent variables. The variable age was isolated from the larger study in this paper to illustrate empirically a midcareer crisis period for the population studied which is consistent with the general literature on midcareer crisis/transition.     

Ecological influences in youth crisis shelters: Effects of social density and length of stay on youth problem behaviors

For 472 consecutive days we monitored the number of youths residing in a crisis shelter for adolescents, the average length of stay for the youths residing in the shelter on each day, and the number of problem behaviors occurring within the shelter on a daily basis. We analyzed these data using a combination of time series and logistic regression techniques to fit a model that would predict the occurrence of a problem behavior on any given day. After controlling for significant time trends in the data, our results indicate that both the number of youths in the shelter and the proportion of youths who have resided in the shelter longer than 14 days are significantly associated with a problem behavior occurring on any given day. The number of youths in the shelter and the probability of a problem behavior occurring correlated significantly. However, as the proportion of youths who resided in the shelter longer than 14 days increased, the probability of a problem behavior occurring decreased.     

Of snakes and faces: An evolutionary perspective on the psychology of fear

Snakes and faces are unique stimuli because they are deeply grounded in evolutionarily shaped behavior systems. Snakes are the prototypical stimulus in a predatory defense system promoting escape from predators, which prepares primates for efficient processing, attentional priority, and rapid fear acquisition to snakes and other stimuli related to predation. The social submissiveness system plays a similar role on the social arena by promoting yielding to dominant individuals without jeopardizing the protection of the group. Supporting these theoretical propositions, empirical data from a research program spanning four decades demonstrate enhanced fear conditioning to snakes and threatening faces compared to neutral stimuli, as well as fast nonconscious processing of, and prioritized attention to, snakes and threatening faces. Human brain‐imaging data show that these effects are mediated by an extensive fear‐network centering on the amygdala.     

External and internal reality: The impact of the current socio‐economic crisis on the analytic dyad

This paper addresses the impact of the current economic crisis on the psychic functioning of the patient and the analyst, their relationship and collaboration. This intrusion of ‘external reality’ is multidimensional, and thus with multiple meanings. The critical role of the economic factor brings various dimensions of money into play, such as self‐preservation, power as well as aspects of psychosexual development. In addition, the crisis involves symbolic loss of basic ideals such as honesty and social responsibility. Patient and analyst are affected in similar and different ways in their respective roles as well as according to the specific intrapsychic functioning of each. Moreover, unique characteristics of the crisis often create a crisis in the analysis. In order to avoid deformation of the analytic relationship, the analytic dyad must examine and work through the multiple meanings of the crisis as well as the meaning of the impact of the crisis on the analytic relationship for both patient and analyst. This complex transference‐ countertransference interplay poses specific challenges to the analyst. After discussion of these issues, clinical material is presented that demonstrates how they appear in analytic practice today.     

Using automation to combat the replication crisis: A case study from controlled-rearing studies of newborn chicks

The accuracy of science depends on the precision of its methods. When fields produce precise measurements, the scientific method can generate remarkable gains in knowledge. When fields produce noisy measurements, however, the scientific method is not guaranteed to work – in fact, noisy measurements are now regarded as a leading cause of the replication crisis in psychology. Scientists should therefore strive to improve the precision of their methods, especially in fields with noisy measurements. Here, we show that automation can reduce measurement error by ∼60% in one domain of developmental psychology: controlled-rearing studies of newborn chicks. Automated studies produce measurements that are 3–4 times more precise than non-automated studies and produce effect sizes that are 3–4 times larger than non-automated studies. Automation also eliminates experimenter bias and allows replications to be performed quickly and easily. We suggest that automation can be a powerful tool for improving measurement precision, producing high powered experiments, and combating the replication crisis.     

An evolutionary function of the depressive reaction: the cognitive map hypothesis

Existing hypotheses for an evolutionary function of depression are insufficient, primarily because they fail to show convincingly the advantages that might compensate for the high evolutionary costs of its features, such as general passivity, decreased appetite and sex drive.In this article, it is shown that depression may have the function of motivating a period of reduced activity after a major loss. It thus allows for time out to update the cognitive structures for altered circumstances, and avoids dangerous actions based on the use of inadequate cognitive maps. This cognitive map hypothesis provides a viable evolutionary explanation for the high incidence of depression reaction, in spite of its apparently unfavorable characteristics. The article discusses how this hypothesis may also shed light on the occurrence of clinical depression, proposing that it is caused by a failure to update complex conceptual cognitive structures. Finally, recommendations for the treatment of depression that derive from this hypothesis are presented.     

Ontological Security and Public (Mis)Recognition of International Crises: Uncertainty,Political Imagining,and the Self

Public narratives of unexpected international events frequently help (re)imagine uncertainty as something familiar or predictable. This process underlies social and political responses and is deeply significant in relation to identity and boundary security. I propose to read early perceptions of international crises through a reformulation of ontological security principles that find motivation for behavior in self‐identity needs. Political imagining is shown to seek continuous self‐concepts and to routinize new encounters within familiar and self‐affirming frames. This article suggests a new approach to ontological continuity: instead of an unchanging narrative, its security may rest in a continuously positive version of the self, with narratives of others balancing and securing the relationship. In the second half of the article, I draw on interviews about the “Arab Spring” to show how illusions of recognizing unexpected events and the political imagining this produces can be motivated by self‐concepts in need of security.     

基于心理痛苦理论与决策树的中学生心理危机分类模型

中学生心理危机分类模型属于复杂数据模型,本文采用分类树算法探究家庭、校园、同伴和个体因素在中学生心理危机分类中的相对重要性差异,尤其是心理痛苦三因素对致死性危机的独特作用。结果显示：（1）中学生自杀危机和非致死性危机分类树的分类效果良好,自伤危机分类树的分类效果欠佳;（2）中学生自杀危机中,痛苦逃避最为重要,痛苦唤醒次之,之后为痛苦体验和学校满意度;（3）中学生自伤危机中,同伴问题行为最为重要,之后为父母陪伴和家庭监督;（4）中学生非致死性危机中,歧视知觉最为重要,之后为痛苦唤醒和同伴支持。提示中学生不同心理危机的促发机制存在差异,心理痛苦三因素模型在自杀分类模型中作用显著,但并非自伤危机和非致死性危机的关键变量。     

Perceived overqualification,felt organizational obligation,and extra-role behavior during the COVID-19 crisis: The moderating role of self-sacrificial leadership

Past research has found that employees who view themselves as overqualified for their jobs tend to hold negative job attitudes and be unwilling to go beyond the call of duty. In challenging situations such as during the COVID-19 crisis, when having “all hands-on deck” may be important to an organization's survival, mitigating the negative tendencies of these employees becomes important. Adopting a sensemaking perspective on crisis management, we examine whether supervisors' self-sacrificial leadership can mitigate these negative tendencies. First, we propose that employee perceived overqualification is associated with lower levels of felt obligation to the organization and thereby lower levels of extra-role behaviors (i.e., helping and proactivity). We next propose that supervisors' self-sacrificial leadership during the COVID-19 crisis can evoke, especially when COVID-19 more strongly impacts the organization, a sense of collectivism toward the organization, which mitigates the negative association of perceived overqualification with felt obligation and thus extra-role behaviors. We tested our theorizing in samples from the UK (n = 121, pilot study) and US (n = 382, main study) in studies with a multi-wave, time-lagged design. Findings from both studies provide support for our theorizing. We discuss implications for research and practice concerning perceived overqualification during a crisis.     

Intergroup helping during the coronavirus crisis: Effects of group identification,ingroup blame and third party outgroup blame

Two studies tested predictors of helping across national boundaries. British participants reported blame attributions for the coronavirus crisis, either to the British government (ingroup blame), or to the Chinese government (third party outgroup blame), and it was tested whether this was associated with intentions to donate money to help outgroup members suffering from effects of the coronavirus crisis in the world's poorer countries. It was hypothesized that strength of identification with the national ingroup would be negatively associated with blame attributions to the ingroup, and that it would be positively associated with blame attributions to a third party outgroup. Blame attributions were predicted in turn to be related to outgroup helping, with ingroup blame being positively associated with helping intentions, and third party outgroup blame being negatively associated with helping intentions. Support for these predictions were found in one exploratory (N = 100) and one confirmatory (N = 250) study.     

政治与关系视角的员工职业发展影响因素探讨

通过对16家制造型企业中的343个员工、662个同事及343个直接领导的配对数据进行实证分析,文章探讨了员工的组织政治技能、政治知觉,以及他们与直接上司的关系对于员工职业发展的关系。多层线性分析模型（HLM）结果表明：员工的政治技能有助于促进其与领导之间形成良好的关系（guanxi）,并籍此积极影响个人在组织中的职业发展,员工－领导关系是政治技能与职业发展之间的中介变量。另外,组织政治知觉影响政治技能对领导关系的作用,在政治氛围浓重的组织中,员工－领导关系更易受到员工政治技能的影响     

The creative suffering of the triune God: An evolutionary panentheistic paradigm

Abstract

One way the alleged conflict between science and religion is often presented is the claim that Western religions represent human beings as the pinnacle of creation. Science, however, has progressively shown this perspective to be false, specifically through the discoveries that we are not at the universe's center, that the universe is much larger than we once thought, and that we evolved from “lower” life forms. While these discoveries are valid, the interpretation that they mortify vain human pretensions to significance is not. In this essay we assess this claim of mortification and argue that it is a myth.     

The impact of the socio-economic crisis on intrapsychic and intersubjective processes within the therapeutic relationship: Implications for the ethical practice of counselling psychology and psychotherapy

Using attachment and mentalisation theories as a framework, the present paper aims to explore the impact of the current socio-economic crisis on the micro-processes and interpersonal dynamics that emerge between client and therapist as well as the ethical dilemmas that surface within the context of the therapeutic relationship. The first part of the paper focuses on the intrapsychic level and the subjective appraisal and experience of the crisis, as this may differ from individual to individual as well as the unique meaning-making processes that take place for clients and therapists alike. It is argued that the socio-economic crisis itself cannot be seen as an entity that is entirely independent and external to the individual but as a phenomenon that interacts in unique ways with the individual’s inner current and past experience. The second part focuses on the exploration of intersubjective processes that emerge between client and therapist, in particular the transference-countertransference dynamic, as this develops within conditions of increased arousal and anxiety. The role and responsibility of counselling psychologists in preserving reflexivity, empathy and a mentalising stance (through supervision and personal therapy) are highlighted in order to safeguard the ethical and competent practice of counselling psychology.     

What emotional reactions can tell us about the nature of others: An appraisal perspective on person perception

The present research aimed to assess how people use knowledge about the emotional reactions of others to make inferences about their character. Specifically, we postulate that people can reconstruct or “reverse engineer” the appraisals underlying an emotional reaction and use this appraisal information to draw person perception inferences. As predicted, a person who reacted with anger to blame was perceived as more aggressive, and self-confident, but also as less warm and gentle than a person who reacted with sadness (Study 1). A person who reacted with a smile (Study 1) or remained neutral (Study 2) was perceived as self-confident but also as unemotional. These perceptions were mediated by perceived appraisals.     

权力距离感对公平感与组织公民行为关系的调节作用研究

本文以188名企业员工及其同事为被试,运用问卷调查法和分层回归分析的统计方法考察了权力距离对公平感与组织公民行为之间关系的调节作用。结果发现:权力距离可以正向调节程序公平与同事评价OCB-I、OCB-G和OCB-O之间的关系,即权力距离感越强,则程序公平感与同事评价OCB-I、OCB-G和OCB-O之间的相关越强。