Can unconscious knowledge allow control in sequence learning?

This paper investigates the conscious status of both the knowledge that an item is legal (judgment knowledge) and the knowledge of why it is legal (structural knowledge) in sequence learning. We compared ability to control use of knowledge (Process Dissociation Procedure) with stated awareness of the knowledge (subjective measures) as measures of the conscious status of knowledge. Experiment 1 showed that when people could control use of judgment knowledge they were indeed conscious of having that knowledge according to their own statements. Yet Experiment 2 showed that people could exert such control over the use of judgment knowledge when claiming they had no structural knowledge: i.e. conscious judgment knowledge could be based on unconscious structural knowledge. Further implicit learning research should be clear over whether judgment or structural knowledge is claimed to be unconscious as the two dissociate in sequence learning.     

Expecting tasks to help or hurt subsequent cognitive performance: Variability,accuracy, and bias in forecasted after-effects

After-effects on cognition—where a prior activity either benefits or hinders subsequent cognitive performance—are empirically inconsistent. Do people have insight into when their subjective energy and cognition will be helped or hurt by engaging in prior activities? Studies 1a and 1b (combined N  =  316) find that people expect more demanding and unenjoyable tasks to hinder their subsequent energy and cognitive performance, regardless of their willpower lay theory. Study 2 (N  =  167) examines the accuracy of these forecasts using a within-subject design. Participants’ forecasts of their future subjective states did predict their actual experienced subjective states, but participants were not able to accurately forecast their subsequent maths performance. Additionally, they significantly overestimated the detrimental effects of demanding prior activities on both subjective state and performance. Study 3 (N  =  210) found that participants’ overestimation of detrimental after-effects could result in unnecessary financial costs, suggesting these biased forecasts can have consequences.     

Not as gloomy as we thought: reassessing how the public understands probability of precipitation forecasts

Prior research on probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts showed that many people wrongfully believe that PoP forecasts are derived from a percentage of time, a percentage of a region or the strength of agreement among forecasters. We posit that the wording of interpretation selection tasks matters, because different response options are associated with different metacognitive feelings. We hypothesised that the incorrect PoP interpretations are more often chosen by participants because they are more fluent than the correct PoP interpretation. We assessed the role of fluency in correctness perception (Study 1) and reassessed PoP interpretations with a more fluent correct interpretation (Study 2). Fluency perception was positively related with perception of correctness. Furthermore, participants selected the correct fluent interpretation more often than the correct disfluent one. We have drawn a more optimistic picture of people’s PoP forecasts understanding than that shown before and have discussed the methodological and applied implications.     

时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响

本文基于经典的分解效应, 提出并证实了一种影响人们判断与决策中时间知觉的新因素--时间分解效应。共包括两个研究, 分别在“时间够用”判断与跨期决策中检验了该效应的存在性与稳固性。实验结果表明：(1)相比未分解条件, 分解条件下的被试判断给定时间内完成某项任务的时间更够用, 即时间知觉更长。该效应受到任务难度的调节, 在较简单的任务中时间分解效应更显著; (2)在跨期决策中, 分解操纵增大了人们对较大较远的收益(larger & later, LL)选项中时间延迟的知觉, 证实了时间分解效应。此外, 还发现时间分解效应会导致人们在跨期决策中更偏好较小较近的收益(smaller & sooner, SS)选项, 对时间延迟的知觉中介了这一过程。总之, 本研究不仅在理论上提出了一种新的分解效应, 同时对现实生活中的决策(如计划制定等)有重要的应用价值。     

群体断层强度测量指标的构建与检验：一个整合的视角

群体断层概念近些年来在理论和实证研究方面都取得了重要的进展, 但有关断层强度的测量却始终呈现出滞后的态势。已有的文献表明只有FLS, Fau和PMD三个指标对群体断层强度进行了系统而完整的测量, 且三个指标都表现出相当的稳健性。尽管如此, 三大指标却都没有能够反映断层宽度这个重要维度。本研究在以往文献的基础上构建了整合群体断层强度测量指标, 很好地解决了这一问题。整合群体断层强度指标具体表现为亚群体内部一致性、亚群体间差异性和断层宽度的乘积。我们从以往研究中提炼了10个准则对新构建的指标进行了检验, 结果显示, 整合群体断层强度指标要显著优于以往的测度, 10个准则全部能够很好地拟合。本研究最后讨论了基于主观感知的断层强度的测量问题, 并提出了采用回归系数作为衡量亚群体间距离的PMD改进算法。     

Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?

Time series found in areas such as marketing and sales often have regular established patterns which are occasionally affected by exogenous influences, such as sales promotions. While statistical forecasting methods are adept at extrapolating regular patterns in series, judgmental forecasters have a potential advantage in that they can take into account the effect of these external influences, which may occur too infrequently for reliable statistical estimation. This suggests that a combination of statistical method and judgment is appropriate. An experiment was conducted to examine how judgmental forecasters make use of statistical time series forecasts when series are subject to sporadic special events. This was investigated under different conditions which were created by varying the complexity of the time series signal, the level of noise in the series, the salience of the cue, the predictive power of the cue information and the availability and presentation of the statistical forecast. Although the availability of a statistical forecast improved judgment under some conditions, the use the judgmental forecasters made of these forecasts was far from optimal. They changed the statistical forecasts when they were highly reliable and ignored them when they would have formed an ideal base‐line for adjustment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of specific emotions on subjective judgment,driving performance,and perceived workload

The aim of this paper was to explore effects of specific emotions on subjective judgment, driving performance, and perceived workload. The traditional driving behavior research has focused on cognitive aspects such as attention, judgment, and decision making. Psychological findings have indicated that affective states also play a critical role in a user’s rational, functional, and intelligent behaviors. Most applied emotion research has concentrated on simple valence and arousal dimensions. However, recent findings have indicated that different emotions may have different impacts, even though they belong to the same valence or arousal. To identify more specific affective effects, seventy undergraduate participants drove in a vehicle simulator under three different road conditions, with one of the following induced affective states: anger, fear, happiness, or neutral. We measured their subjective judgment of driving confidence, risk perception, and safety level after affect induction; four types of driving errors: Lane Keeping, Traffic Rules, Aggressive Driving, and Collision while driving; and the electronic NASA-TLX after driving. Induced anger clearly showed negative effects on subjective safety level and led to degraded driving performance compared to neutral and fear. Happiness also showed degraded driving performance compared to neutral and fear. Fear did not have any significant effect on subjective judgment, driving performance, or perceived workload. Results suggest that we may need to take emotions and affect into account to construct a naturalistic and generic driving behavior model. To this end, a specific-affect approach is needed, beyond the sheer valence and arousal dimensions. Given that workload results are similar across affective states, examining affective effects may also require a different approach than just the perceived workload framework. The present work is expected to guide emotion detection research and help develop an emotion regulation model and adaptive interfaces for drivers.     

Test of the Ratio Judgment Hypothesis

The hypothesis that we are capable of judging ratios of subjective intensities is widely used in psychology. Here, experimental results are reported that more stringently verify prior findings that people respond to sensory intensity differences while they execute the task of judging sensory intensity ratios. This verification was made on brightness and heaviness and for verbal and matching responses, suggesting that the results may be general for both sensory intensive dimensions and response systems. The results have implications for the comparisons of scores on evaluation scales based on ratio judgment.     

Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions

When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so‐called trend‐damping (modeled by anchoring on, and insufficient adjustment from, the average of recent time series values). Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously (static mode), not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on two sorts of judgment: (a) predictions of the next event (forecast) and (b) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average estimation). Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent‐based model—the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)—to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data). ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses (and the accuracy of these responses) in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear‐regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive‐integrated‐moving‐average (ARIMA) and exponential‐smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task.     

Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error

Loss aversion occurs because people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. In two studies, people predicted that losses in a gambling task would have greater hedonic impact than would gains of equal magnitude, but when people actually gambled, losses did not have as much of an emotional impact as they predicted. People overestimated the hedonic impact of losses because they underestimated their tendency to rationalize losses and overestimated their tendency to dwell on losses. The asymmetrical impact of losses and gains was thus more a property of affective forecasts than a property of affective experience.     

阶层流动的“双刃剑”效应及其心理机制

阶层流动是指人们在社会分层体系中相对位置的变化。人们普遍预期,向上流动促进个体发展和社会进步。然而近期研究也表明,向上流动还可能损害个体健康和主观幸福感,使人们低估和容忍社会不平等,并反对再分配。地位认同、贫富归因倾向以及系统公正信念能够解释向上流动的双刃剑效应。未来研究需要进一步澄清向上流动感知的具体表现,深入考察向上流动影响的心理机制,探索促进阶层流动积极效应发挥的干预方法。     

Enhancing Poverty-Abatement Programs: a Subjective Well-Being Contribution

This paper questions the assumption used in designing social policies that raising people’s income automatically translates into greater well-being. Based on a subjective well-being approach and a representative survey from Costa Rica the paper shows that there is substantial dissonance in the classification of persons as poor and as being in well-being deprivation. The existence of dissonances leads to the conceptualization of different trajectories out-of-poverty and into well-being. Public policies oriented towards the abatement of income poverty can have a greater impact on people’s well-being if they recognize the complexity of human beings and acknowledge that their programs affect satisfaction in all domains of life. The paper states that public policy should not only be concerned with getting people out of income poverty, but also with placing them in a life-satisfying situation. The paper also discusses strategies that could improve poverty-abatement programs.     

阶层流动的“双刃剑”效应及其心理机制

阶层流动是指人们在社会分层体系中相对位置的变化。人们普遍预期,向上流动促进个体发展和社会进步。然而近期研究也表明,向上流动还可能损害个体健康和主观幸福感,使人们低估和容忍社会不平等,并反对再分配。地位认同、贫富归因倾向以及系统公正信念能够解释向上流动的双刃剑效应。未来研究需要进一步澄清向上流动感知的具体表现,深入考察向上流动影响的心理机制,探索促进阶层流动积极效应发挥的干预方法。     

Reducing cognitive biases in probabilistic reasoning by the use of logarithm formats

Research on probability judgment has traditionally emphasized that people are susceptible to biases because they rely on “variable substitution”: the assessment of normative variables is replaced by assessment of heuristic, subjective variables. A recent proposal is that many of these biases may rather derive from constraints on cognitive integration, where the capacity-limited and sequential nature of controlled judgment promotes linear additive integration, in contrast to many integration rules of probability theory (Juslin, Nilsson, & Winman, 2009). A key implication by this theory is that it should be possible to improve peoples’ probabilistic reasoning by changing probability problems into logarithm formats that require additive rather than multiplicative integration. Three experiments demonstrate that recasting tasks in a way that allows people to arrive at the answers by additive integration decreases cognitive biases, and while people can rapidly learn to produce the correct answers in an additive formats, they have great difficulty doing so with a multiplicative format.     

审美的测量:美术能力倾向测验的回顾与展望

美术能力倾向测验对美术人才的识别和选拔具有重要意义。现有测验可分为审美能力测量和艺术创作能力测量两种,其中审美能力测量的测验又可以分为审美判断测验和判断后选择判断理由的两种形式。但以往研究缺乏对审美知觉能力维度的实证研究、没有区分“主观美”和“客观美”,以及缺乏对各类型美术能力倾向测验效度的比较研究。未来可加深对审美知觉能力维度的实证研究,开发多类型美术能力判断测验并比较其效度,开发适用于小学生的美术能力倾向测验,以及开发适合我国国情的美术能力倾向测验。     

重量对元认知监控的无意识影响

采用结构知识归因的方法,以学习判断和项目优先选择作为元认知监测和控制的指标,考察重量对元认知监控的影响是否是无意识的。被试学习粘贴在不同重量纸盒上的词对,进行学习判断(实验1)或项目选择(实验2),并报告其判断或选择的依据。结果:(1)重量影响学习判断和项目优先选择,相对于轻纸盒,被试给予重纸盒上的词对更高的JOL并优先选择重纸盒上的词对进行学习;(2)重量对学习判断的影响只发生在判断依据为猜测的情况下,重量对项目优先选择的影响只发生在判断依据为猜测和直觉的情况下。上述结果支持了元认知的具身性,并提示重量对元认知监控的影响可能是无意识的。