What is the probability of replicating a statistically significant effect?

If an initial experiment produces a statistically significant effect, what is the probability that this effect will be replicated in a follow-up experiment? I argue that this seemingly fundamental question can be interpreted in two very different ways and that its answer is, in practice, virtually unknowable under either interpretation. Although the data from an initial experiment can be used to estimate one type of replication probability, this estimate will rarely be precise enough to be of any use. The other type of replication probability is also unknowable, because it depends on unknown aspects of the research context. Thus, although it would be nice to know the probability of replicating a significant effect, researchers must accept the fact that they generally cannot determine this information, whichever type of replication probability they seek.     

An alternative to null-hypothesis significance tests

The statistic p(rep) estimates the probability of replicating an effect. It captures traditional publication criteria for signal-to-noise ratio, while avoiding parametric inference and the resulting Bayesian dilemma. In concert with effect size and replication intervals, p(rep) provides all of the information now used in evaluating research, while avoiding many of the pitfalls of traditional statistical inference.     

Simulating individual word identification thresholds and errors in the fragmentation task

This article presents a large-scale study that collected word identification thresholds and errors in the fragmentation task for all four-letter French words. In the first part of this article, we identify some of the variables (e.g., word frequency, neighborhood size, letter confusability) that affect performance in the fragmentation task. In the second part, we analyze individual response performance and identify different response strategies. We demonstrate that the interactive activation model can account for individual response strategies by adapting two of its original parameters: word-letter feedback and letter-word inhibition. In the third part, we demonstrate that the adaptation of the interactive activation model to the fragmentation task makes it possible to successfully simulate a facilitatory frequency effect on identification thresholds, an inhibitory neighborhood size effect on error rates, and an inhibitory letter confusability effect on identification thresholds. When the task-specific processes of the fragmentation task are specified and individual response strategies are considered, the interactive activation model provides a parsimonious architecture for modeling the task-independent processes involved in word perception.     

Look into my eyes: gaze direction and person memory

The current research considered the effects of gaze direction on a fundamental aspect of social cogition: person memory. It was anticipated that a person's direction of gaze (i.e., direct or averted) would impact his or her subsequent memorability, such that recognition would be enhanced for targets previously displaying direct gaze. In Experiment 1, participants were presented with faces displaying either direct or averted gaze in a person-classification (i.e., conceptual) task. Then, in a surprise memory test, they were required to report whether a presented face had been seen before. As expected, a recognition advantage was observed for targets displaying direct gaze during the initial classification task. This finding was replicated and extended in a second experiment in which participants initially reported the spatial location (i.e., perceptual task) of each face. We consider the implications of these findings for basic aspects of social-cognitive functioning and person perception.     

Effects of Visual Tasks and Conversational Partner on Personal and Interpersonal Postural Activity

The control of stance is influenced by activities that are engaged in during stance. We investigated simultaneous constraints imposed by individual-specific factors (such as the distance of visual targets) and of interpersonal factors arising from dyadic conversation. Each member of participant pairs looked at targets (drawings) that were similar to, but differed from, that of a conversational partner. Conversational partners conversed to identify the differing elements. In Experiments 1 and 2, members of each dyad conversed with each other or separately conversed with a confederate (an experimenter). We varied the distance of targets (Experiment 1) and their size (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, target size could be the same for both members of a dyad (i.e., small-small, large-large) or could differ (i.e., small-large, large-small). Interpersonal postural coordination was stronger when members of dyads conversed with each other, replicating earlier studies, but this manipulation also influenced parameters of individual sway. In Experiment 3, interpersonal postural coordination also was influenced by variation in the size of the partner's target. Analysis of the sway of individuals revealed influences of target distance and size, replicating previous effects; however, these manipulations also influenced interpersonal postural coordination. Overall, the results indicate that postural activity was modulated simultaneously with respect to individual and dyadic parameters of the task situation. We argue that it may be useful, both theoretically and empirically, to interpret the effects of conversation on postural activity within the broader context of relations between postural control and the performance of suprapostural tasks.     

The relationship between baseline pupil size and intelligence

Pupil dilations of the eye are known to correspond to central cognitive processes. However, the relationship between pupil size and individual differences in cognitive ability is not as well studied. A peculiar finding that has cropped up in this research is that those high on cognitive ability have a larger pupil size, even during a passive baseline condition. Yet these findings were incidental and lacked a clear explanation. Therefore, in the present series of studies we systematically investigated whether pupil size during a passive baseline is associated with individual differences in working memory capacity and fluid intelligence. Across three studies we consistently found that baseline pupil size is, in fact, related to cognitive ability. We showed that this relationship could not be explained by differences in mental effort, and that the effect of working memory capacity and fluid intelligence on pupil size persisted even after 23 sessions and taking into account the effect of novelty or familiarity with the environment. We also accounted for potential confounding variables such as; age, ethnicity, and drug substances. Lastly, we found that it is fluid intelligence, more so than working memory capacity, which is related to baseline pupil size. In order to provide an explanation and suggestions for future research, we also consider our findings in the context of the underlying neural mechanisms involved.     

Visual field dependence as a navigational strategy

Visual perception is an important component of environmental navigation. Previous research has revealed large individual differences in navigational strategies (i.e., the body’s kinesthetic and embodied approach to movement) and the perception of environmental surfaces (via distance estimations), but little research has investigated the potential relationship between these sources of individual variation. An important navigational strategy is the interaction between reliance on visual cues and vestibular or proprioceptive cues. We investigated the role of this navigational strategy in the perception of environmental surfaces. The results supported three embodied evolutionary predictions: Individuals who were most reliant on visual context (1) overestimated vertical surfaces significantly more, and (2) feared falling significantly more, than did those who were least reliant on visual context; and (3) all individuals had roughly accurate horizontal distance estimates, regardless of their navigational strategy. These are among the first data to suggest that individual differences in perception are closely related to the individual differences in navigation that derive from navigational risks. Variable navigational strategies may reflect variable capacities to perceive and navigate the environment.     

What shapes the probability weighting function? Influence of affect,numeric competencies,and information formats

Research suggests that people are less sensitive to variations in probability in affect‐rich compared with affect‐poor risky choices. This effect is modeled by a more curved probability weighting function (PWF). We investigated the role of different numeric competencies and the effectiveness of several intervention strategies to decrease this affect‐laden probability distortion. In two experiments, we manipulated the affect‐richness of a risky prospect. In Experiment 1 (N = 467), we measured numeracy and symbolic‐number mapping (i.e., the ability to accurately map numbers onto their underlying magnitudes). The affect‐based manipulations showed the expected effects only in participants with more accurate symbolic‐number mapping, who also reported more differentiated emotional reactions to the various probabilities and displayed more linear PWFs. Instructions to focus on the probability information decreased probability distortion and revealed differences in the use of probability information on the basis of symbolic‐number mapping ability. In Experiment 2 (N = 417), we manipulated the format in which the probability information was presented: using visual aids versus no visual aids and a positive frame (e.g., one person wins) versus combined frame (e.g., one person wins and 99 persons do not win). The affect‐based manipulations had no effect but both the visual aids and combined frame decreased probability distortion. Whereas affect‐richness manipulations require further research, results suggest that probability weighting is at least partially driven by the inability to translate numerical information into meaningful and well‐calibrated affective intuitions. Visual aids and simple framing manipulations designed to calibrate these intuitions can help decision makers extract the gist and increase sensitivity to probabilities.     

嵌入于社会情境的工作重塑

工作重塑实质上是一种情境性的主动性行为。基于已有研究成果,首先系统归纳工作重塑与社会情境因素之间关系的4种研究视角,即社会情境是工作重塑的目标、社会情境因素是工作重塑的组成部分、社会情境因素影响工作重塑、社会情境因素为工作重塑设立边界条件。此外,梳理并讨论社会情境因素影响工作重塑的内在机制以及社会情境因素与个体特征的交互对于工作重塑的影响、工作重塑在特定情境中的有效性两方面的研究。在此基础上,结合其他相关变量的研究现状对嵌入于社会情境的工作重塑的未来研究进行展望,包括探索工作重塑对他人的影响、探索团队工作重塑驱动个体工作重塑的多重路径、探索社会情境影响工作重塑的内在机制、探索社会情境与个体特征的交互如何影响工作重塑,以及探讨基于中国社会情境的工作重塑的有效性。     

A Clinician’s Primer for Idiographic Research: Considerations and Recommendations

Theorists and clinicians have long noted the need for idiographic (i.e., individual-level) designs within clinical psychology. Results from idiographic work may provide a possible resolution of the therapist’s dilemma—the problem of treating an individual using information gathered via group-level research. Due to advances in data collection and time series methodology, there has been increasing interest in using idiographic designs to answer clinical questions. Although time series methods have been well-studied outside the field of clinical psychology, there is limited direction on how clinicians can use such models to inform their clinical practice. In this primer, we collate decades of published and word-of-mouth information on idiographic designs, measurement, and modeling. We aim to provide an initial guide on the theoretical and practical considerations that we urge interested clinicians to consider before conducting idiographic work of their own.     

CORRECTING THE 16PF FOR FAKING: EFFECTS ON CRITERION-RELATED VALIDITY AND INDIVIDUAL HIRING DECISIONS

The effects of correcting a personality measure for faking were evaluated within an organizational context. Two possible repercussions of score correction were studied using the 16PF personality inventory: the effect on criterion-related validity and the effect on individual hiring decisions (i.e., which applicants would or would not be hired). Results indicated that correction for faking had little effect on criterion-related validity. However, depending on the selection ratio, correction of scores would have resulted in different hiring decisions than those that would have been made on the basis of uncorrected scores. Implications for organizations using personality measures for selection and recommendations regarding the use of faking corrections are discussed.     

社会网络视角的团队情绪智力

据估计, 60%的团队都没有达到它们的目标, 这给学术界提出了重要且具有挑战性的研究课题。情绪智力(emotional intelligence)是在人际关系基础上发展起来的重要概念。研究发现, 基于微观个体或宏观整体的团队情绪智力在团队成功达到目标过程中起到重要作用。然而, 当前尚无研究探讨基于团队局部成员间情绪智力行为交换而产生的团队情绪智力对团队的影响。为此, 本课题从配对层次(一对一关系中两个人, 即actor-target)这一新角度探讨团队情绪智力, 通过把它看做团队过程中一种产生的状态(emergent state), 在整合团队成员交换理论和社会网络方法基础上对它进行研究。具体围绕团队内配对单元存在的交换关系(指目标者感受到行动者对其实施的情绪智力行为)在团队中形成的网络所代表的团队情绪智力开展实证研究, 以期从理论上揭示团队内情绪智力行为交换的特征, 情绪智力自下而上(bottom-up)由个体发展到团队的过程, 以及配对基础的团队情绪智力的影响效应, 从而为团队管理实践提供具体的改善建议。     

The midstream order deficit

The relative order of an auditory sequence can be more difficult to apprehend when it is presented repeatedly without pause (i.e., cycling) than when it is presented only once (Warren, Obusek, Farmer, & Warren, 1969). We find that this phenomenon, referred to as the midstream order deficit (MOD), can also occur with visual stimuli. The stimuli need not form separate perceptual "streams," and the effect can occur with presentation rates as slow as five items per second, even though the identification of individual letters is very accurate at this rate. However, if the first item of the sequence is visually very distinct from the preceding items, relative order reports can be as accurate in the cycling condition as in the single-presentation condition. Our results suggest that the MOD is not due to masking, attentional blink, repetition blindness, Reeves and Sperling's (1986) order illusion, memory limitations, or decision criteria. The MOD may reflect an attentional cost to the initiation of order encoding, which is distinct from the allocation of attention is required in order to detect and identify individual items. To initiate order encoding successfully, one's attention must be set for, or captured by, an initial salient event.     

Language development and fragile X syndrome: profiles, syndrome-specificity, and within-syndrome differences

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is the leading inherited cause of mental retardation. In this article, we review what is known about the language and related problems of individuals with FXS. In doing so, we focus on the syndrome-specific features of the language phenotype and on the organismic (i.e., genetic and individual neurocognitive and behavioral) and environmental factors associated with within-syndrome variation in the phenotype. We also briefly review those aspects of the behavioral phenotype of FXS that are relevant for understanding syndrome-specific features of, and within-syndrome variability in, language. The review includes summaries of research on the prelinguistic foundations for language development and on each of the major components of language (i.e., vocabulary, morphosyntax, and pragmatics). Throughout the review, we point out implications of existing research for intervention as well as directions for future research.     

Examining creative performance over time using hierarchical linear modeling: An illustration using film directors

Longitudinal performance of 73 film directors are examined using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). The HLM analyses model intraindividual performance trajectories (i.e., performance change over time) and interindividual differences in the trajectory parameters (i.e., initial status and rate of change in performance). Results reveal that as a group, directors' performance over careers, measured by critics' ratings, can be described using a quadratic trajectory with an increase in ratings following the initial film, followed by an eventual decline in ratings in later films. However, at the intraindividual level, directors differ in their initial status as well as rate of linear change, and some directors follow an accelerating or decelerating performance pattern. These interindividual differences in initial status, direction of change, and rate of change are related to the mean number of films per year directed by the individual. Implications and future research challenges for modeling longitudinal creative performance with HLM are discussed.     

Familiarity seekers are fast and novelty seekers are slow

Christie and Klein (1995) demonstrated that a familiar item (word) rapidly attracts attention when presented simultaneously with an unfamiliar item (nonword). However, this finding has never been replicated. The current study is an attempt at such a replication. Participants were presented a familiar word and unfamiliar nonword in the experimental condition. At varying times after stimulus onset one of the items moved, and the participant reported the direction of the movement. A replication of Christie and Klein would be obtained if performance was better for movement discrimination of the familiar item shortly after onset but not at later intervals. The original finding was replicated in fast participants while slower participants show a different effect. A potential individual difference variable is suggested to explain this difference between the fast and slow participants.     

Familiarity seekers are fast and novelty seekers are slow

Christie and Klein () demonstrated that a familiar item (word) rapidly attracts attention when presented simultaneously with an unfamiliar item (nonword). However, this finding has never been replicated. The current study is an attempt at such a replication. Participants were presented a familiar word and unfamiliar nonword in the experimental condition. At varying times after stimulus onset one of the items moved, and the participant reported the direction of the movement. A replication of Christie and Klein would be obtained if performance was better for movement discrimination of the familiar item shortly after onset but not at later intervals. The original finding was replicated in fast participants while slower participants show a different effect. A potential individual difference variable is suggested to explain this difference between the fast and slow participants.     

Surrogate consent to non-beneficial research: erring on the right side when substituted judgments may be inaccurate

Part of the standard protection of decisionally incapacitated research subjects is a prohibition against enrolling them unless surrogate decision makers authorize it. A common view is that surrogates primarily ought to make their decisions based on what the decisionally incapacitated subject would have wanted regarding research participation. However, empirical studies indicate that surrogate predictions about such preferences are not very accurate. The focus of this article is the significance of surrogate accuracy in the context of research that is not expected to benefit the research subject. We identify three morally relevant asymmetries between being enrolled and not being enrolled in such non-beneficial research, and conclude that when there is a non-negligible probability that surrogates’ predictions are wrong, it will generally be better to err on the side of not authorizing enrollment.     

Many roads lead to Rome: Self‐regulatory strategies and their effects on self‐control

In a self‐control conflict, people face a dilemma between a current goal (e.g., to exercise regularly) and competing impulses, habits, or desires (e.g., to stay on the couch and continue watching TV). To resolve such conflicts in favor of their goals, individuals may capitalize on a variety of self‐regulatory strategies. In this article, we review recent research on the self‐regulatory strategies people use in their daily lives, research on the effectiveness of these strategies, and research on the consequences of self‐regulatory strategy use on well‐being. We furthermore take both an individual‐differences and a situational perspective by linking strategy use to individual differences between people (e.g., in self‐control) and by emphasizing that strategy effectiveness likely depends on situational context (e.g., on current demands). Finally, we introduce ideas and potential future research questions revolving around the role of individual differences in regulatory flexibility (including context‐sensitivity) for determining a person's self‐regulatory success.