行为金融学与心理学

由于理性经济人假设与实际的偏差,经典现代金融学遇到了一些被称为“未解之谜”的现实问题。行为金融学是从人们的实际决策行为出发来研究和解释金融市场的相关问题。因此,心理学的研究成果就成为行为金融学研究必不可少的基础。与投资者信念、偏好以及决策相关的情感心理学、认知心理学和社会心理学的研究成果在行为金融学各领域得到了广泛的应用。金融学与心理学两个领域的密切合作将推动行为金融学的进一步发展。     

A framework for the unification of the behavioral sciences

The various behavioral disciplines model human behavior in distinct and incompatible ways. Yet, recent theoretical and empirical developments have created the conditions for rendering coherent the areas of overlap of the various behavioral disciplines. The analytical tools deployed in this task incorporate core principles from several behavioral disciplines. The proposed framework recognizes evolutionary theory, covering both genetic and cultural evolution, as the integrating principle of behavioral science. Moreover, if decision theory and game theory are broadened to encompass other-regarding preferences, they become capable of modeling all aspects of decision making, including those normally considered "psychological," "sociological," or "anthropological." The mind as a decision-making organ then becomes the organizing principle of psychology.     

Modeling the Dynamics of Risky Choice

Individuals make decisions under uncertainty every day. Decisions are based on incomplete information concerning the potential outcome or the predicted likelihood with which events occur. In addition, individuals' choices often deviate from the rational or mathematically objective solution. Accordingly, the dynamics of human decision making are difficult to capture using conventional, linear mathematical models. Here, we present data from a 2-choice task with variable risk between sure loss and risky loss to illustrate how a simple nonlinear dynamical system can be employed to capture the dynamics of human decision making under uncertainty (i.e., multistability, bifurcations). We test the feasibility of this model quantitatively and demonstrate how the model can account for up to 86% of the observed choice behavior. The implications of using dynamical models for explaining the nonlinear complexities of human decision making are discussed as well as the degree to which the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems might offer an alternative framework for understanding human decision making processes.     

The rise and fall of moral algebra: Francis Hutcheson and the mathematization of psychology

Until recently historians of psychology have typically argued that mathematical analysis in psychology originated with Herbart in nineteenth-century Germany. Among those who are now recognized to have pedated Herbart is Francis Hutcheson. In 1725, Hutcheson published a mathematical statement of his theory of the psychological basis of moral behavior and judgment. Hutcheson's attempt to present a theory of social behavior in mathematical terms is described and an analysis is presented of the background which led Hutcheson to adopt such a mathematical format. The work of several imitators of this aspect of Hutcheson's opus is considered and the role of his critic, Thomas Reid, in halting such mathematizing efforts for several decades in Britain is noted.     

Evading conceptual self-annihilation: Some implications of Albert Bandura's theory of the self-system for the status of psychology

There are two cognitive revolutions occuring in psychology. The first in the fields of perception, memory, language and thought uses information processing and computer models of cognition. The second in learning theory and behavioral therapy uses folk psychological concepts of cognition. To test the philosophical compatibility of these cognitive revolutions I examine the implications of Albert Bandura's theory of the self-system for the disputed question of the status of folk psychology. I argue that if the theory of the self-system is correct, then strong eliminative materialist claims about the falsity of folk psychology are disconfirmed, functionalist homunculi hypotheses need modification, and certain constraints are imposed on neurophysiological accounts of the self. Thus I conclude that the cognitive revolution in learning theory and behavior therapy is making its own distinctive contribution to the new philosophical psychology emerging from the cognitive revolution in psychology as a whole.     

The Motivational and Instantaneous Behavior Effects of Contexts: Steps Toward a Theory of Goal‐Directed Behavior1

Contextual conditions affect behavior in 2 ways: (a) They confront people with opportunities and obstacles that affect their motivation to take action; or (b) they instantaneously shape performance, regardless of a person's motivation and even without subjective acknowledgment of the conditions. Traditionally in psychology, the immediate behavioral consequences of a context are disregarded. Based on our theory of goal‐directed behavior, we are able to disentangle the instant and the motivational behavioral consequences of contexts. In an example study, 40% of the variation in performance among 660 Swiss and Spanish pupils was explained by motivational differences. Instantaneous constraints and facilitations imposed on people's acts, in turn, revealed a set of Switzerland‐ and Spain‐specific limitations and affordances (hit rate = 97.5%).     

Ships That Pass In The Night.

A major source of tension between Staddon's The new behaviorism and Baum's Review is that the former was written for a general audience but the latter evaluates it as a technical work. Be that as it may, the central issue—Skinner's conception of the role of theory in behavior analysis—is inadequately portrayed in both the book and the review. The two primary sources of difficulty arise from failures to honor Skinner's distinction between experimental analysis and interpretation and to appreciate Skinner's views on events that are not observable at the behavioral scale of measurement.     

The influence of Weismann's germ-plasm theory on the distinction between learned and innate behavior

Since the early twentieth century it has been common in both psychology and behavioral biology to draw a sharp distinction between learned and innate behavior, or elements of behavior. The persistence of this dichotomy may be attributed in part to the fundamental importance of the separation of inherited and acquired characters within neo-Darwinian evolutionary theory, one of the essential foundations for the modern study of behavior. A cornerstone of early neo-Darwinian thought was August Weismann's theory of the germ plasm, which proposed a segregation between germinal and somatic cells during development, thus ruling out the possibility that acquired characters could be inherited. This denial of Lamarckian hereditary mechanisms became one of the hallmarks of neo-Darwinism, as opposed to classical Darwinism. Within the neo-Darwinian framework it thus became important, as Weismann himself pointed out, to distinguish sharply between inherited and acquired characters. Although the dichotomy has frequently been criticized it remains tenacious, surfacing in different guises as older versions of it became terminologically unacceptable. The analysis offered here suggests that this tenacity may partly be explained by the implications of Weismann's germ-plasm theory, and its modern incarnation in the central dogma of molecular genetics, and by the central thematic position of those ideas in the neo-Darwinian foundations of modern behavioral biology.     

The value of everyday examples in the teaching of learning: a comment prompted by machado and silva (1998)

Why are so few psychology students and professors interested in the study of learning? Part of the answer lies in the techniques we use for teaching behavioral psychology and communicating its relevance to numerous aspects of life. We add to this journal's discussion of the teaching of learning by explaining the importance of using examples drawn from everyday life: Numerous familiar examples provide powerful pedagogical tools for showing the importance of learning theory and helping students learn behavior principles. This approach does not exclude using other strategies and techniques in our quest to communicate the value of learning theory and teach our behavioral science in meaningful and thought-provoking ways.     

The “interbehavioral” approach to treatment

This article introduces and describes the “interbehavioral” approach to clinical intervention as an interdisciplinary system where assessment and treatment encompass physical and psychological effects as continuous interactions. Behavior disorders and their elimination follow a general learning theory model as interpreted by J.R. Kantor. This theory view responses and stimuli as having their own functions that directly affect progress in therapy. Kantor's interbehavioral or “systems” methods obviate the narrow focus of operant (behavioral) psychology by broadening the analysis to include individual history and a better integration of human service disciplines. To this extent, clinical and training applications attend to more of the human operations and overcome such limitations as poor internal validity and problems with generalization of treated behavior to everyday settings. Implications of the interbehavioral system for clinical networks are discussed.     

Aristotle's Cognitive Science: Belief,Affect and Rationality

I offer a novel interpretation of Aristotle's psychology and notion of rationality, which draws the line between animal and specifically human cognition. Aristotle distinguishes belief (doxa), a form of rational cognition, from imagining (phantasia), which is shared with non‐rational animals. We are, he says, “immediately affected” by beliefs, but respond to imagining “as if we were looking at a picture.” Aristotle's argument has been misunderstood; my interpretation explains and motivates it. Rationality includes a filter that interrupts the pathways between cognition and behavior. This prevents the subject from responding to certain representations. Stress and damage compromise the filter, making the subject respond indiscriminately, as non‐rational animals do. Beliefs are representations that have made it past the filter, which is why they can “affect [us] immediately.” Aristotle's claims express ceteris paribus generalizations, subject to exceptions. No list of provisos could turn them into non‐vacuous universal claims, but this does not rob them of their explanatory power. Aristotle's cognitive science resolves a tension we grapple with today: it accounts for the specialness of human action and thinking within a strictly naturalistic framework. The theory is striking in its insight and explanatory power, instructive in its methodological shortcomings.     

Exploring the Generalization Process from Past Behavior to Predicting Future Behavior

Substantial evidence in social psychology documents that traits predict behavior. Research in behavioral economics establishes prior behavioral information—the actual behavior of another person in the past—influences future decision making, suggestive of the role of traits in guiding future behavior, but agnostic to the specific psychological mechanism. Yet the entire generalization process from past behavior to predicting future behavior has not been fully explored. Additionally, previous paradigms do not adequately dissociate prediction from explanation, and provide participants with trait information, or rely on participants to generate the appropriate trait. Here, we combine literature and experimental approaches in social psychology and behavioral economics to explore the generalization process from prior behavior that guides future decisions. Across three studies utilizing consequential economic game paradigms and online questionnaires, an initial group of participants (employees) played a time estimation game and a charity donations game before a second group of participants (employers) viewed the behavior of the first group, then decided whether to invest in employees in a trust game and rock guessing game. Although participants infer trait warmth and competence from the behavioral information in the first two games, estimates of normative behavior predicted investment decisions on the warmth‐relevant games better than trait inferences. These results dissociate generalizations guided by warmth and competence behavioral information, and question the extent to which traits always serve as heuristics to predict behavior. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

决策风格的理论发展及建构：基于信息加工视角

决策风格是人们在决策中表现出来的习惯性或独特的行为模式, 对决策、管理等领域均有重要影响。近年兴起的决策风格理论主要基于个体信息加工策略, 如基于双加工理论和基于后悔情绪的决策风格模型等。决策风格对个体决策的影响表现在决策策略与偏差、情绪和无意识加工等方面。该领域在诸如决策风格的主要理论、测量工具和理论检验等方面亦取得积极进展, 未来研究方向应注意基于双加工理论和进化心理学建构决策风格理论。     

Construal Level Theory as an Integrative Framework for Behavioral Decision‐Making Research and Consumer Psychology

In this comment to Trope, Liberman and Makslak's lead article, I refrain from any attempt to review or recapitulate the growing body of research in social psychology in general and in consumer science in particular that is explicitly devoted to construal level theory (CLT). Rather, granting the status of CLT as a leading contemporary theory, with rich implications and applications in consumer science, I concentrate on recent phenomena in judgment and decision making for which CLT provides an implicit account. Specifically, CLT affords an integrative framework for understanding a whole variety of preference reversals—a major challenge for students of consumer behavior.     

Psychological biases of individual investors and financial satisfaction

Traditional finance theory is based on the principle of maximization of utility and explains how choices are made by rational people. Although the theory provides numerous insights, observation of actual behavior of people was seen to be different from what the theory predicted. The homo economicus is in reality a homo sapien who has emotions and beliefs that help to filter the content from his or her environment. These beliefs and preferences that arise due to cognitive limitations, presence of emotions, and various psychological motives guide or bias his or her decisions. Much literature states that the biases should be corrected as they negatively impact financial behaviour and individual's well‐being. However, evolutionary psychology considers biases as design features of human mind. Thus, biases are not always bad, as at times, these biases can help the individual investor to choose the best course of action from the multiple possibilities and enable committing the less costly mistakes, thereby helping the individual to achieve satisficing behaviour. This paper aims to explore the investor biases and see whether they are related to the financial satisfaction of the individuals. Financial satisfaction is the measure of satisfaction with one's financial situation. The results showed that overconfidence bias, reliance on expert bias, and self‐control bias have a positive and significant association with financial satisfaction levels. Association of a few other biases with financial satisfaction was also observed under certain control conditions. This study provides further insights on investor behavior and paves the way for various possibilities for future research.     

Decision making in the short and long run: Repeated gambles and rationality

Experimental evidence indicates that decision makers who reject a single play of a gamble may accept repeated plays of that gamble. The rationality of this pattern of preference has been investigated beginning with Samuelson's colleague (SC) who gained notoriety in a well‐known paper. SC's pattern of preference is commonly viewed as a behavioural anomaly. Researchers from branches of psychology and economics have analysed the choice and, despite much debate, there remains considerable confusion. An axiomatic analysis of SC's choice has been used to motivate experimental studies in several disciplines. This paper identifies the axiomatic violation as that of an assumed rather than a normative condition. Therefore, contrary to popular belief, SC's choice is consistent with expected utility theory.     

Effects of Theodore Millon's Teaching,Mentorship, Theory,and Scientific Contributions on Health Psychology and Behavioral Medicine Research and Practice

This article summarizes the impact of Theodore Millon's work on the disciplines of health psychology and behavioral medicine over the past 5 decades spanning from the late 1960s to present. The article is written from my perspectives as a graduate student mentored by Millon on through my faculty career as a collaborator in test construction and empirical validation research. Several of the most recent entries in this summary reflect projects that were ongoing at the time of his passing, revealing the innovation and visionary spirit that he demonstrated up until the end of his life. Considering that this summary is restricted to Millon's contributions to the disciplines of health psychology and behavioral medicine, this work comprises only a small portion of his larger contribution to the field of psychology and the areas of personality theory and psychological assessment more broadly.     

Bruno Bettelheim and the Chazon Ish: Toward a New Jewish Psychotherapy

Jeremiah is quoted and cited to show the basic optimism of Judaism. Why did Freud create an “Oedipus Complex,” rather than a “Joseph Phenomenon”?—especially since Freud had such a great knowledge of the Bible, including the Joseph story; and the Biblical Joseph made frequent appearances in Freud's dreams. Many of the advances in psychology and psychiatry were made in part as a rebellion against the ideology of psychoanalysis—this includes family therapy, behavioral therapy, and psychopharmacology. Bettelheim saw the shortcomings of psychoanalysis, both as a theory to explain human behavior and as a cure for psychological problems. The experiences of Bettelheim and of The Chazon Ish can give us new hope. The Chazon Ish and Bettelheim both sought to help in the context of a type of community. Reading of the Bible throws light on people's problems; and people can be helped by identification with Biblical characters. There is often specific advice in the Bible. Bible therapy can strengthen the bond between the therapist and the patient, which is important for patient improvement. There is a need for this type of psychotherapy.