Achievement age-death age correlations alone cannot provide unequivocal support for the precocity-longevity hypothesis

This study is a further exploration (see S. J. H. McCann, 2001) of the capacity of the selection bias and life expectancy artifacts to produce correlations between peak achievement ages and death ages that could be mistakenly construed as support for the precocity-longevity hypothesis that those who reach career pinnacles earlier tend to have shorter lives. For 1,672 governors, 10 fake achievement age variables and 10 fake death age variables were randomly generated. Fake achievement age variables were correlated with real death age; fake death age variables were correlated with real achievement age. However, the real age correlations were much larger than the fake age correlations, and when the 2 artifacts were controlled through a subsample strategy, only real age correlations were significant. Overall, the results support the precocity-longevity hypothesis.     

Life Expectancy Can Explain the Precocity-Longevity Hypothesis Association of Early Career Success and Early Death

The precocity-longevity hypothesis that those who reach career milestones earlier in life have shorter life spans was tested with the 430 men elected to serve in the House of Representatives for the 71st U.S. Congress in 1929–1930 who were alive throughout 1930. There was no tendency for those first serving at an earlier age to die sooner or those serving first at a later age to die later than expected based on individual life expectancy in 1930. Although age at first serving was correlated with death age, the correlation was not significant when expected death age was controlled. The results cast serious doubt on the contention of the precocity-longevity hypothesis that the developmental aspects of the prerequisites, concomitants, and consequences of early career achievement peaks actively enhance the conditions for an earlier death.     

List of Reviewers

ABSTRACT

Anxious individuals report disproportionately negative expectations concerning the future, termed the negative expectancy bias. In contrast, ageing is associated with an inflated expectancy for positive future events. A recent study [Steinman, S. A., Smyth, F. L., Bucks, R. S., MacLeod, C., &; Teachman, B. A. (2013). Anxiety-linked expectancy bias across the adult lifespan. Cognition and Emotion, 27, 345–355. doi:10.1080/02699931.2012.711743] found using an interpretation bias task, a negative expectancy bias in young adults and positive expectancy bias in older adults with high trait anxiety. Extending this, the current study examined expectancy bias for positive, negative and ambiguously emotionally toned information in younger and older adults with clinical levels of depression and anxiety to community control groups, thus allowing examination of both disorder status and age on biases. Clinical participants reported a pervasive tendency to expect negative events relative to positive regardless of whether the current scenarios were positive, negative or ambiguous. Older adults showed greater expectancy for future positive scenarios when the initial scenario was negative or ambiguous. Age moderated the negative expectancy bias shown by clinical participants for ambiguous scenarios. Clinical disorders in older adults attenuated the positive expectancy bias that was otherwise strong in community participants. These findings provide further evidence for age differences in processing of emotionally toned information, with older adults showing a greater expectancy for positive future events.     

Content Analysis of Cognitive Bias: Development of a Standardized Measure

The purpose of this research was to develop a standardized content analytic measure of cognitive bias as conceptualized in Beck's (1987) cognitive theory of depression. In a pilot study it was determined that a written stimulus format was preferable to an audiotaped stimulus format with respect to comprehensibility. Valence and expectancy ratings collected in this pilot study also served as the basis for selection of items for the final measure, balancing positive and negative, expected and unexpected events. In study 2 open-ended written responses to questions about the main cause of each event, and the justifications for these attributions, were coded for indices of bias, defined (as in Cook & Peterson, 1986) as justifications that fail to cite covariation of the ascribed cause with the effect. Cognitive bias scores in Study 2 showed internal consistency (positive item-remainder correlations) and high interrater reliability. As predicted, justifications of attributions for expected events were more biased and less rational than were justifications of attributions for unexpected events.     

Societal threat, authoritarianism, conservatism, and U.S. state death penalty sentencing (1977-2004)

On the basis of K. Stenner's (2005) authoritarian dynamic theory, it was hypothesized that the number of death sentences and executions would be higher in more threatened conservative states than in less threatened conservative states, and would be lower in more threatened liberal states than in less threatened liberal states. Threat was based on state homicide rate, violent crime rate, and non-White percentage of population. Conservatism was based on state voter ideological identification, Democratic and Republican Party elite liberalism-conservatism, policy liberalism-conservatism, religious fundamentalism, degree of economic freedom, and 2004 presidential election results. For 1977-2004, with controls for state population and years with a death penalty provision, the interactive hypothesis received consistent support using the state conservatism composite and voter ideological identification alone. As well, state conservatism was related to death penalties and executions, but state threat was not. The temporal stability of the findings was demonstrated with a split-half internal replication using the periods 1977-1990 and 1991-2004. The interactive hypothesis and the results also are discussed in the context of other threat-authoritarianism theories and terror management theory.     

Fear-relevant selective associations and social anxiety: absence of a positive bias

An illusory correlation paradigm was used to compare high and low socially anxious individuals' initial, on-line and a posteriori covariation estimates between emotional faces and aversive, pleasant and neutral outcomes. Overall, participants demonstrated an initial expectancy bias for aversive outcomes following angry faces, and pleasant outcomes following happy faces. On-line expectancy biases indicated that initial biases were extinguished during the task, with the exception of low socially anxious individuals who continued to over-associate positive social cues with pleasant outcomes. In addition to lacking this protective positive on-line bias, the high social anxiety group reported retrospectively more negative social cues than the low socially anxious group. Findings are discussed in relation to similar evidence from recent interpretive and memory paradigms.     

Attenuated hypothesis or attenuated test of hypothesis?

After discussing several of the criticisms made by Professor Jensen, it is concluded that the Spearman hypothesis, as currently worded, has been disconfirmed. The near-zero correlation between blacks and low socio-economic status (SES) whites is not an artifact of the methodology. Neither is it a sampling fluke. The logic of sampling error does not apply to the arbitrary selection of intercorrelated tests from an undefined population. It is important also that low and high SES white differences are highly correlate with general factor loadings in a very heterogeneous selection of tests. Research attention should be turned to the difference in outcome of the race and SES comparisons.     

Dissociations between Covariation Bias and Expectancy Bias for Fear-relevant Stimuli

The illusory correlation paradigm of Tomarken, Mineka, and Cook (1989) was used to examine bias in threat appraisal for biological (snake, spider) and technological (gun, knife) fear-relevant stimuli. Subjects showed bias in terms of higher on-line shock expectancy ratings and skin conductance responses, and higher post-experimental judgements of shock covariation, for fear-relevant stimuli. However, there were multiple dissociations between the measures: (1) expectancy bias was observed for both biological and technological stimuli, whereas covariation bias was restricted to biological stimuli; (2) prior fear of the target stimulus had no effect on expectancy bias, but covariation bias was restricted to high fear subjects; and (3) covariation bias was observed at the end of the experiment, by which time expectancy bias had disappeared. These results suggest that covariation bias is not simply a continuation of a pre-experimental expectancy bias.     

Biographical determinants of achieved eminence: a multivariate approach to the Cox data.

Ranked eminence of creators and leaders was hypothesized to be a function of both substantive (developmental and productive) variables and methodological artifacts. Cox's sample of 301 geniuses was reexamined using multiple-regression techniques. The results indicated that ranked eminence is (a) a curvilinear inverted-U function of education for creators but a negative linear function for leaders, (b) a positive linear function of versatility for leaders only, and (c) a curvilinear U-shaped function of life span for creators but a "backwards-J" function for leaders. Although creators are more intelligent than leaders, the correlation that Cox found between intelligence and ranked eminence was shown to be an artifact of data reliability and, especially, a timewise sampling bias. It was also shown that father's status has no direct impact on ranked eminence.     

Gender differences in health-related quality of life

In 1986 the life expectancy at birth was 71.3 years for males and 78.3 years for females--providing a 7-year advantage for women. Although women live longer, it has been reported that they paradoxically experience more physical and psychological illnesses. In this article, we estimate the expected well-years or quality-adjusted life years for men and women in the general population. The data were obtained in a random sample of 1,034 residents of San Diego. The well-life expectancy uses standard life expectancies with adjustments for quality of life. The well-life expectancy for men was 59.8 years; for women, it was 62.7 years. Thus, the quality adjustment had significantly more impact on women (15.6 years) than on men (11.5 years). Age-specific estimates of health-related quality of life suggested a male advantage before age 45 and a female advantage after age 45. The benefits of well-years of life as a public health statistic are discussed.     

Expectancy bias mediates the link between social anxiety and memory bias for social evaluation

Social anxiety (SA) involves a multitude of cognitive symptoms related to fear of evaluation, including expectancy and memory biases. We examined whether memory biases are influenced by expectancy biases for social feedback in SA. We hypothesised that, faced with a socially evaluative event, people with higher SA would show a negative expectancy bias for future feedback. Furthermore, we predicted that memory bias for feedback in SA would be mediated by expectancy bias. Ninety-four undergraduate students (55 women, mean age = 19.76 years) underwent a two-visit task that measured expectations about (Visit 1) and memory of (Visit 2) feedback from unknown peers. Results showed that higher levels of SA were associated with negative expectancy bias. An indirect relationship was found between SA and memory bias that was mediated by expectancy bias. The results suggest that expectancy biases are in the causal path from SA to negative memory biases for social evaluation.     

Hindsight bias in political elections

Two studies on political hindsight bias were conducted on the occasions of the German parliament election in 1998 and the Nordrhein-Westfalen state parliament election in 2000. In both studies, participants predicted the percentage of votes for several political parties and recalled these predictions after the election. The observed hindsight effects were stronger than those found in any prior study on political elections (using percentage of votes as the dependent variable). We argue that the length of the retention interval between original judgement and recollection is mainly responsible for this difference. In our second study, we investigated possible artifacts in political hindsight biases using a control-group design where half of the participants recalled their predictions shortly before or after the election. Hindsight bias was preserved, reinforcing the results of earlier studies with non-control-group designs. Finally, we discuss the possibility that the hindsight experience (in political judgement and in general) actually consists of three different, partly independent components.     

Anxiety-linked expectancy bias across the adult lifespan

Anxiety is characterised by a negative expectancy bias, such that anxious individuals report negatively distorted expectations about the future. Contrary to anxiety, ageing is characterised by a positivity effect, such that ageing is associated with a tendency to attend to and remember positive information, relative to negative information. The current study integrates these literatures to examine anxiety- and age-linked biases when thinking about the future. Participants (N=1,109) completed a procedure that involved reading valenced scenarios (positive, negative, or ambiguous) and then rating the likelihood of future valenced events occurring. Results suggest that ageing and anxiety have independent and opposing effects. Heightened anxiety was associated with a reduced expectancy for positive events, regardless of the scenarios’ current emotional valence, whereas increased age was associated with an inflated expectancy for positive events, which was strongest when individuals were processing socially relevant or negative scenarios.     

Counting your blessings: Positive memories among grateful persons

We conducted two studies investigating the relationship of gratitude to autobiographical memory of positive and negative life events. Gratitude was assessed with an attitudinal measure and college students were asked to recall both positive and negative events from their past. In both studies, a significant positive relationship was found between trait gratitude and a positive memory bias. In Study 2 it was found that gratitude still reliably predicted positive memory bias after controlling for depression. Further, it was found that a positive intrusive memory bias was associated with gratitude in both studies. Thus, an important component of gratitude may be an enhanced tendency to recall positive events from one's life.     

Social comparison after success and failure: Biased search for information consistent with a self-serving conclusion

Based on the traditional and attributional perspectives on social comparison, it was hypothesized that the search for social comparison information after performance outcomes is biased so as to provide evidence consistent with a favorable self-evaluation. In Experiment 1, subjects were led to believe that they obtained 16 or 8 out of 20 items correct on a bogus social sensitivity test and were then led to expect that most other students performed either well or poorly on the test. They were then given the opportunity to inspect up to 50 scored answer sheets from previous subjects. Consistent with the hypothesis, failure subjects requested more information when they expected it to reveal that most students performed poorly than when they expected it to reveal that most students performed well; success subjects showed little interest in this additional information, regardless of their expectancies as to what it would reveal. Experiment 2 employed a different approach to manipulating performance outcomes and led subjects to expect that most other subjects performed better, the same, or worse than themselves. Regardless of their own performance, subjects showed the least interest in additional information in the higher score expectancy condition and the most interest in additional information in the lower score expectancy condition. The role that this information search bias may play in producing self-serving attributions for success and failure and maintaining positive self-evaluations was discussed.     

The effect of Obama saliency on individual-level racial bias: Silver bullet or smokescreen?

President Obama's election has been construed as a potentially positive force for intergroup relations, but this issue has not been previously addressed experimentally. In experiment 1, conducted 4-5 months after the election, White participants were primed with either President Obama or nature before completing a variety of race-related measures. Results indicated that priming Obama did not influence implicit racial bias or internal motivation to control prejudice. However, consistent with exemplar and symbolic racism theories, participants primed with President Obama expressed greater agreement with the tenets of symbolic racism and were more reluctant to accept the possibility that they personally harbored subtle racial bias. Experiment 2, conducted 21 months after the election, replicated the Obama effects from experiment 1 and showed that priming another Black exemplar (Oprah) also increased symbolic racism. Results suggest that highly successful Black exemplars currently serve as a smokescreen for symbolic and subtle racial biases.     

Maternal Expectancy Versus Objective Measures of Child Skill: Evidence for Absence of Positive Bias in Mothers’ Expectations of Children with Internalizing Disorders

Parents of anxious children are thought to be more attuned to threat, which might translate into less positive bias in parental report of child coping and ability, unlike parents of non-anxious children. Maternal expectancy bias was examined in a sample of 43 clinically anxious (51 % female), 30 clinically anxious/depressed (50 % female), and 44 non-clinical control children (46 % female), 8–14 years of age. When compared to an objective observer’s ratings of the children, mothers of non-clinical children demonstrated a positive bias (i.e., over-rated their children’s performance) for both ratings of expected speech performance in absolute terms and relative to peers. Mothers in the clinical groups did not exhibit this positive expectancy bias. Moreover, mothers of clinical children reported lower expectations in absolute terms and relative to peers than mothers of non-clinical children. The data suggest that mothers of clinical children held accurate expectations for child performance when compared to the gold standard of an objective observer.     

The Influence of Abnormal Sex Differences in Life Expectancy on National Happiness

Countries with better health, as indexed by life expectancy, score higher on subjective well-being (SWB). It was predicted that deviations from the average sex difference in life expectancy (reflecting reproductive competition among males and discrimination against females) would be inversely related to happiness. Regression analysis of SWB for 178 countries found that deviations from the average sex difference in life expectancy were predictive of unhappiness controlling for life expectancy, national wealth, and income inequality. Countries with a relative scarcity of female children (used as an index of parental bias) were less happy. Societies in which there is an undue burden on the health and survival of either sex are thus unhappy ones due to gender-specific disadvantage and associated gender conflict.     

Sur la différenciation des aptitudes cognitives de l'enfant

Data from the standardization sample of a French intelligence scale for children aged from 4 to 9 years (Échelles Différentielles d'Efficiences Intellectuelles) were examined to verify the ability differentiation hypothesis. The whole sample (n = 574) was divided into three age groups (4–5, 6–7 and 8–9 years) and multisample confirmatory factor analyses were performed. Results showed that correlations between subtests, factor loadings, correlation between factors, and residual variance of subtests were similar across age groups. This finding doesn't seem to be the consequence of a sampling bias or a positive correlation between age and reliability or variability of subtest scores. Like results of other recent research on this question, it challenges the hypothesis of a differentiation of abilities during childhood, at least when studies are conducted with intellectual composite scales applied to unselected samples of participants.     

The Wished‐For Always Wins Until the Winner Was Inevitable All Along: Motivated Reasoning and Belief Bias Regulate Emotion During Elections

How do biases affect political information processing? A variant of the Wason selection task, which tests for confirmation bias, was used to characterize how the dynamics of the recent U.S. presidential election affected how people reasoned about political information. Participants were asked to evaluate pundit‐style conditional claims like “The incumbent always wins in a year when unemployment drops” either immediately before or immediately after the 2012 presidential election. A three‐way interaction between ideology, predicted winner (whether the proposition predicted that Obama or Romney would win), and the time of test indicated complex effects of bias on reasoning. Before the election, there was partial evidence of motivated reasoning—liberals performed especially well at looking for falsifying information when the pundit's claim predicted Romney would win. After the election, once the outcome was known, there was evidence of a belief bias—people sought to falsify claims that were inconsistent with the real‐world outcome rather than their ideology. These results suggest that people seek to implicitly regulate emotion when reasoning about political predictions. Before elections, people like to think their preferred candidate will win. After elections, people like to think the winner was inevitable all along.