Functional measurement approach to self-estimation in multiattribute evaluation

Multiattribute analysis depends on measurement of values and weights. Unless these measures reflect the decision maker's true values and weights, the multiattribute formula may put a less-preferred alternative in first place. To avoid such disordinality requires stringent measurement conditions: First, the values and weights must be on linear (equal interval) or ratio (known zero) scales. Second, these scales must satisfy a condition of common unit across disparate attribute dimensions. Most methods of range adjustment beg both of these measurement questions. Functional measurement theory can solve both problems and so can be useful in multiattribute analysis. Past work has established the operation of a general cognitive algebra as an empirical reality. The averaging model, in particular, makes possible the definition and estimation of weights and values as distinct psychological parameters. It can also solve the problem of common unit. Cognitive algebra thus provides a grounded theoretical foundation on which to develop self-estimation methodology, in which decision makers provide direct estimates of their values and weights. The logic is straightforward. Functional measurement can analyze global judgments to obtain validated psychological scales. These scales may then be used as validational criteria for the self-estimates. Procedures to eliminate biases in the self-estimates can thus be tested and refined in well-learned multiattribute tasks, such as judgments of meals, in which global judgments are trustworthy. Once developed, such self-estimation procedures may be used with some confidence for general multiattribute analysis. A number of studies from 20-odd years of work on the theory of information integration are summarized to show good, although not unmixed promise for self-estimation.     

“金钱-环境”复合收益的风险决策:价值取向的影响

现实中的环境决策,往往要在多个由"金钱-环境"复合而成的结果间做选择。人们如何对异质复合结果进行评估与选择,是决策研究面临的新课题。本研究着重考察个体金钱取向和环境取向的相对强度对复合收益风险决策的影响。结果表明,无论是采用自陈量表(实验1)或内隐联想测验(实验2)来测量价值取向,还是采用混词造句任务(实验3)来启动价值取向,均发现价值取向相对强度对复合风险决策有显著影响。(1)相比于金钱取向占优的个体,环境取向占优的个体在进行复合风险决策时更偏好环境风险较小的复合选项;(2)在复合选项等价匹配任务中,环境取向占优的个体会赋予复合选项中的环境收益以更高权重,倾向于用更多的金钱收益来弥补环境收益的风险折扣;(3)在复合收益风险概率匹配任务中,环境取向占优的个体更倾向于为获取倍增的环境收益而承担更大的复合收益风险。作为对复合结果风险决策的首次探索,本研究初步回答了不同价值取向的个体在金钱-环境复合风险决策中更倾向于规避什么风险、拿什么冒险以及为什么冒险等问题,为今后进一步开展复合决策研究打下了理论和方法基础。     

Looking forward and looking back: integrating completion and sunk-cost effects within an escalation-of-commitment progress decision

Currently, there are 2 conflicting frameworks with which to understand why decision makers might escalate their commitment to a previously chosen course of action: sunk costs and project completion. The author proposes that sunk costs and need to complete exert simultaneous pressures, both independent and interactive, on a decision maker's level of commitment. The responses of 340 participants were analyzed and supported a complementary relationship between the 2 predictors. In addition, sunk costs demonstrated a curvilinear influence on commitment and an interaction with level of completion that supported a Level of Completion x Sunk Cost moderation model. (A marginal utility model was not supported.) Results are discussed in terms of their relevance toward offering a complementary view of 2 potential antecedents to a decision maker's propensity to escalate his or her commitment to a previously chosen course of action.     

Dimensions of Speech Perception: Semantic Associations in the Affective Lexicon

The affective lexicon has been explained in terms of three underlying dimensions: Evaluation, Activity, and Potency. We assessed the importance of these dimensions during online speech perception. Participants made speeded lexical decisions about emotion words that were heard in a tone of voice that was either congruent or incongruent with the word's meaning. The denotative semantic category from which words were chosen was significantly related to lexical decision times (P < 0.001). Tone of voice did not influence decision times, nor did it interact with semantic category. Regression analyses showed that lexical decision times were significantly predicted by dimension weights on Potency, and by the three-way interaction between dimension weights on Evaluation, Activity, and Potency (both P s < 0.001). The implications of this study for models of knowledge representation and perception are discussed.     

From Outcomes to Acts: A Non-Standard Axiomatization of the Expected Utility Principle

This paper presents an axiomatization of the principle of maximizing expected utility that does not rely on the independence axiom or sure-thing principle. Perhaps more importantly the new axiomatization is based on an ex ante approach, instead of the standard ex post approach. An ex post approach utilizes the decision maker's preferences among risky acts for generating a utility and a probability function, whereas in the ex ante approach a set of preferences among potential outcomes are on the input side of the theory and the decision maker's preferences among risky acts on the output side.     

Decomposition,Interdependence and Precision in Multiattribute Utility Measurements

Traditionally, parameters of multiattribute utility models, representing a decision maker's preference judgements, are treated deterministically. This may be unrealistic, because assessment of such parameters is potentially fraught with imprecisions and errors. We thus treat such parameters as stochastic and investigate how their associated imprecision/errors are propagated in an additive multiattribute utility function in terms of the aggregate variance. Both a no information and a rank order case regarding the attribute weights are considered, assuming a uniform distribution over the feasible region of attribute weights constrained by the respective information assumption. In general, as the number of attributes increases, the variance of the aggregate utility in both cases decreases and approaches the same limit, which depends only on the variances as well as the correlations among the single-attribute utilities. However, the marginal change in aggregate utility variance decreases rather rapidly and hence decomposition as a variance reduction mechanism is generally useful but becomes relatively ineffective if the number of attributes exceed about 10. Moreover, it was found that utilities which are positively correlated increase the aggregate utility variance, hence every effort should be made to avoid positive correlations between the single-attribute utilities. We also provide guidelines for determining under what condition and to what extent a decision maker should decompose to obtain an aggregate utility variance that is smaller than that of holistic assessments. Extensions of the current model and empirical research to support some of our behavioural assumptions are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the reliability of a weighted composite

A general formula for the reliability of a weighted composite has been derived by which that reliability can be estimated from a knowledge of the weights whatever their source, reliabilities, dispersions, and intercorrelations of the components. The Spearman-Brown formula has been shown to be a special case of the general statement. The effect of the internal consistency or intercorrelation of the components has been investigated and the conditions defining the set of weights yielding maximum reliability shown to be that the weight of a component is proportional to the sum of its intercorrelations with the remaining components and inversely proportional to its error variance.     

You say "probable" and I say "likely": improving interpersonal communication with verbal probability phrases

When forecasters and decision makers describe uncertain events using verbal probability terms, there is a risk of miscommunication because people use different probability phrases and interpret them in different ways. In an effort to facilitate the communication process, the authors investigated various ways of converting the forecasters' verbal probabilities to the decision maker's terms. The authors present 3 studies in which participants judged the probabilities of distinct events using both numerical and verbal probabilities. They define several indexes of interindividual coassignment of phrases to the same events and evaluate the conversion methods by comparing the values of these indexes for the converted and the unconverted judgments. In all the cases studied, the conversion methods significantly reduced the error rates in communicating uncertainties.     

Weight approximations in multi‐attribute decision models

The use of surrogate weights based on rankings has been proposed as a method for avoiding difficulties associated with the elicitation of weights in multi‐attribute decision analysis. When the simple multiattribute rating technique using swings (SMARTS) method is being employed it has been suggested that rank order centroid (ROC) weights are the best surrogate weights to use. This study shows that ROC weights are appropriate to use as a substitute for original weights that are constrained to sum to a fixed total (usually 1 or 100) as used in the point allocation method. If, however, the original weights are determined without any initial restrictions, as in the direct rating method, and are then normalized, which is the common procedure in SMARTS analysis, then the ROC weights do not provide the best approximations to the original weights. This paper shows how to obtain rank order distribution (ROD) weights that provide a better approximation than the ROC approach to unrestricted original weights. The paper also shows that, as the number of attributes in a decision problem increases, the ROD weights approximate to the more easily calculated rank sum weights. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dynamic, stochastic, computational model of preference reversal phenomena

Preference orderings among a set of options may depend on the elicitation method (e.g., choice or pricing); these preference reversals challenge traditional decision theories. Previous attempts to explain these reversals have relied on allowing utility of the options to change across elicitation methods by changing the decision weights, the attribute values, or the combination of this information--still, no theory has successfully accounted for all the phenomena. In this article, the authors present a new computational model that accounts for the empirical trends without changing decision weights, values, or combination rules. Rather, the current model specifies a dynamic evaluation and response process that correctly predicts preference orderings across 6 elicitation methods, retains stable evaluations across methods, and makes novel predictions regarding response distributions and response times.     

Child decision-making: On the burden of predecisional information search

In many decision situations, individuals must actively search information before they can make a satisfying choice. In such instances, individuals must be aware of the fact that not all information may be equally relevant for the choice at hand—thus, individuals should weight information by its respective relevance. We compared children’s and adult’s decision-making in a child-friendly decision game. For each decision, participants received information on the content of 3 piggy banks on an information-board. In Experiment 1, we manipulated the weight-structure by presenting decisions with similarly relevant or differently relevant information. Results suggested that 8- to 9-year-olds did not adapt their search to the weight-structure. In contrast, 10- to 12-year-olds did consider relevance weights. Still, 8- to 9-year-olds and 10- to 12-year-olds were unable to search for a good, adultlike information sample containing all relevant and no irrelevant information. Thus, children based their decisions on a biased information sample. In Experiment 2, we intensified the need to consider relevance weights by introducing a search constraint. In doing so, we replicated the deficits of 8- to 9-year-olds and found adultlike behavior in 11- to 12-year-olds. Our findings suggest that although children understand that relevance may vary, they are not immediately able to effectively consider relevance weights in their information search—which appears to be a skill that continues to develop throughout childhood. We discuss the resulting implications for understanding children as decision makers as well as the general ability to perform structured information search.     

MAXIMUM VARIANCE LINEAR COMBINATIONS FROM PHENOTYPIC,GENETIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIANCE MATRICES

Vectors of weights derived from principal components analysis of stan- dardized phenotypic, genetic, and environmental covariance matrices were applied to open-field behavioral scores from mice in order to obtain composite scores with maximum phenotypic (Vp), genetic (Va), and environmental (Ve)variance, respectively. Since Va associated with the composite from the genetic covariance matrix is derived as maximum, and since Vp associated with this combination cannot be as large as that associated with the phenotypic com- posite, heritability of the genetic composite must exceed that of the phenotypic composite. In addition, since Ve associated with the environmental composite is maximum and since Vp associated with this score cannot exceed Vp from the phenotypic composite, Va associated with the phenotypic composite should exceed that from the environmental composite. Thus, heritability of the pheno- typic composite scores should exceed that for the environmental composite. The predicted rank order of the heritabilities was observed. Pooled estimates of the heritabilities of the genetic, phenotypic, and environmental components were 0.24, 0.19, and 0.17, respectively.     

艾勒悖论(Allais Paradox)另释

艾勒悖论违背了期望效用(Expected Utility)理论的独立性(independence)原则,成为欲推翻期望效用理论的杠杆。“齐当别”抉择模型不将风险决策行为看成是追求某种“最大期望值”的抉择反应,而将其看成是“最好可能结果之间的取舍”或者“最坏可能结果之间的取舍”。此项研究设计了一“判断”技术,并用此对艾勒设计的选择问题加以检验。实验表明,判断结果所示的“齐当别”策略能满意地对艾勒选择题作出解释。     

Self-control and cooperation: different concepts, similar decisions? A question of the right perspective

Conflicts between an individual's long-term and short-term goals (i.e., self-control conflicts) and conflicts between individual and collective interests (mixed-motive situations) share some interesting features. In this article both types of conflicts are approached from a perspective hypothesis. The hypothesis holds that a decision maker's perspective on his or her decision determines whether either the long-term goals (the collective interests) or the short-term goals (the individual interests) will guide behavior. The hypothesis also implies that factors known to enhance cooperative choices in mixed-motive situations should also facilitate self-control. Three such factors are evaluated: group identification, self-efficacy, and mutual trust. We conclude that the perspective in which choice is considered part of an identifiable series of behaviors is most likely to result in cooperation or self-control.     

AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATE SCORING METHODS FOR THE MIXED STANDARD SCALE

This study investigated the psychometric properties of three methods of scoring a Mixed Standard Scale (MSS) performance evaluation: the patterned procedure as corrected by Saal (1979); a simple nonpatterned scoring procedure suggested by Prien, Jones, and Miller (1977), which gives equal weights to the performance statements; and a procedure that assigned differential weights to each statement on the basis of scale values provided by a panel of subject matter experts. Interrater reliabilities, scale variances for averaged ratings, and a convergent/discriminant validity analysis, which included an alternate method of job skill ratings, indicated no difference in the score distribution variance, interrater reliability, or validity of different method scores.     

The Price Is Right—Or Is It? A Reference Point Model of Two-Party Price Negotiations

This paper develops a social cognitive, reference point model of two-party price negotiations. The theoretical focus is on the role that reference points play as a means of calibration in the individual negotiator's decision processes and as a means of social influence in bargaining. Three studies are presented which examine how reference points based on personal preferences and budget constraints (i.e., reservation values) are combined with reference points based on available market information to affect outcomes. These studies support the interpretation that in captive transactions, contextual cues determine the extent to which market information versus reservation values influence outcomes. Certain contextual cues trigger perceptions of low versus high price variance, which in turn, lead negotiators to weight market information more or less heavily in internal processing and bargaining. When perceptions of low price variance are present, market information influences outcomes more than private reservation values. When perceptions of high price variance are present, reservation values tend to be more dominant in determining outcomes.     

The Effectiveness of Partial Information about Attribute Weights for Ranking Alternatives in Multiattribute Decision Making

Weighted additive evaluation functions are widely used to rank alternatives in decision making under certainty with multiple evaluation attributes. Some researchers have suggested that approximate attribute weights may be adequate to accurately rank alternatives. Use of approximate weights would simplify decision analysis since detailed elicitation of weights can be time consuming and controversial. This article investigates the degree to which partial information about the relative magnitudes of attribute weights is sufficient to rank alternatives as a function of the number of decision alternatives, the number of attributes, and the number of allowed levels for each attribute. A simulation analysis, as well as a reanalysis of an actual application, shows that partial information about weights is often not sufficient to determine the most preferred alternative for realistic decision problems. Hence, approximation procedures for specifying weights may lead to errors. However, our work also shows that a simple analysis procedure can be used to accurately determine whether partial information about weights is adequate to correctly specify the most preferred alternative. This procedure can be useful for identifying situations in which detailed elicitation of weights is not needed.     

On the sensitivity of a composite to its weights

A method is presented for investigating two aspects of the sensitivity of a linear composite to the values of its weights.     

Analyzing distances in a frontal plane

In an exploration of the process whereby horizontal and vertical components are extracted from distances between pairs of points, participants made speeded absolute distance judgments—deciding whether horizontal distances between pairs of points in a frontal plane exceeded a criterion distance. Judgments reflected the horizontal and vertical distances between the points. Three accounts of the results were considered. (1) Only the overall distance between two points was directly available to judgment processes; the horizontal or vertical distance between the points was available only to the extent that the horizontal and vertical positions of the points were differentially weighted prior to the assessment of overall distance. (2) The perceptual effects of positions on the horizontal and vertical dimensions were collapsed onto a composite dimension. (3) The decision criterion for the distance judgment considered both the horizontal and vertical distances between the points. In support of the overall distance account, (1) performance in the distance judgment task was facilitated by repetition of the same overall distance from trial to trial, but not by repetition of the distance on the composite dimension or by repetition of horizontal or vertical distance; (2) differential weighting that the overall distance account predicted for the absolute distance judgments was reflected in concurrent relative distance judgments pitting horizontal against vertical distance, counter to the composite dimension account, which sees the horizontal and vertical dimensions as collapsing onto the composite dimension in balanced, symmetrical fashion, and counter the decisional account, given that no criterion is required for the relative judgment.