Resolving the IQ paradox: heterosis as a cause of the Flynn effect and other trends

IQ test scores have risen steadily across the industrialized world ever since such tests were first widely administered, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. Although the effect was documented more than 2 decades ago, there is currently no generally agreed-on explanation for it. The author argues that the phenomenon heterosis represents the most likely cause. Heterosis, often referred to as hybrid vigor, is a genetic effect that results from matings between members of genetically distinct subpopulations, such as has been occurring in human populations through the breakup of small, relatively isolated communities owing to urbanization and greater population mobility. In Part 1 of the article, empirical findings are listed that are consistent with a heterosis hypothesis but render other hypotheses either implausible or very difficult to test. In Part 2, a formal model of the process of heterosis is presented. The goal of the modeling is to develop a quantitatively rigorous method for estimating the potential contribution of heterosis in the Flynn effect, as well as trends observed in other heritable traits and conditions.     

Expanding variance and the case of historical changes in IQ means: a critique of Dickens and Flynn (2001)

The Flynn effect is the rise in mean IQ scores during the 20th century, amounting to about 0.33 IQ points per year. Many theoretical explanations have been proposed, though none are universally accepted. W. Dickens and J. R. Flynn's (2001) new approach explains the large IQ changes by means of recursive models of IQ growth. A salient feature of their models is that IQ phenotypes and their supportive environments are correlated; in addition, environmental effects can rebound on phenotypic IQ to increase or lower IQ. In this critique, the authors examine an empirical challenge to their models, which typically imply large changes in IQ variance. However, the historical rise in IQ mean level has not been accompanied by substantial variance changes, a finding inconsistent with the properties of the proposed model.     

The Flynn effect and U.S. policies: the impact of rising IQ scores on American society via mental retardation diagnoses

Over the last century, IQ scores have been steadily rising, a phenomenon dubbed the Flynn effect. Because of the Flynn effect, IQ tests are periodically renormed, making them harder. Given that eligibility for mental retardation (MR) services relies heavily on IQ scores, renormed tests could have a significant impact on MR placements. In longitudinal IQ records from 9 sites around the country, students in the borderline and mild MR range lost an average of 5.6 points when retested on a renormed test and were more likely to be classified MR compared with peers retested on the same test. The magnitude of the effect is large and affects national policies on education, social security, the death penalty, and the military. This paper reports the perceptions of professionals as they relate to IQ score fluctuations in normal, borderline, and/or MR populations.     

A critique of the Flynn Effect: massive IQ gains, methodological artifacts, or both?

The Flynn Effect proposed by Flynn (1984; 1987) is reviewed and evaluated. Even in the presence of a skeptical and critical scrutiny of the effect, it appears that there is more than just methodological artifact to be explained. But the acceptance of the effect has been too quick. The proper explanations for the effect will not be meaningful until the nature of the effect is much better understood than it is now. Six questions are raised that have not been adequately answered. Two criticisms of the logic underlying the Flynn Effect are presented — one showing that even if IQ and SAT are highly correlated, their secular means will not necessarily track one another; the second showing that results by Flynn, (1984) are as consistent with a changing IQ variance as with a changing mean. The second of these is empirically evaluated with a re-analysis of a subset of the sources of Flynn's original 1984 data. Finally, 10 research strategies and designs are suggested that would help us better understand the effect. The critique is developed with the goal of clarifying the nature, meaning and causes of the Flynn Effect. The author hopes that this critique will stimulate both healthy skepticism about the Flynn Effect and careful research into its actual causes.     

IQ on the rise: the Flynn effect in rural Kenyan children

Abstract - Multiple studies have documented significant IQ gains over time, a phenomenon labeled the Flynn effect. Data from 20 industrialized nations show massive IQ gains over time, most notably in culturally reduced tests like the Raven's Progressive Matrices. To our knowledge, however, this is the first study to document the Flynn effect in a rural area of a developing country. Data for this project were collected during two large studies in Embu, Kenya, in 1984 and 1998. Results strongly support a Flynn effect over this 14-year period, with the most significant gains found in Raven's matrices. Previously hypothesized explanations (e.g., improved nutrition; increased environmental complexity; and family, parental, school, and methodological factors) for the Flynn effect are evaluated for their relevance in this community, and other potential factors are reviewed. The hypotheses that resonate best with our findings are those related to parents' literacy, family structure, and children's nutrition and health.     

Secular declines in Spearman's g: some evidence from the United States

The Flynn Effect (J. Flynn, 1987) refers to the apparent increases in intelligence quotient (IQ) observed over the past few decades. A related phenomenon is that the variance in test scores accounted for by Spearman's g (C. Spearman, 1904) varies according to IQ level. That is, g accounts for less variance in high IQ groups than in low IQ groups. Spearman termed this variant aspect of g the "law of diminishing returns." This study extends prior research on the Flynn Effect and the law of diminishing returns by examining changes in the statistical importance of Spearman's g that may accompany secular increases in IQ. Based on the standardization data from the United States versions of the Wechsler scales (i.e., Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scales of Intelligence, D. Wechsler, 1967; Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, D. Wechsler, 1949; Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, D. Wechsler, 1955), this study indicated that, in most cases, the statistical significance of Spearman's g has indeed declined over the past several years. A. R. Jensen (1998) suggested that the components of the Flynn Effect warrant special investigation. The present study addresses this issue, in part by analyzing the Verbal and Performance subscales of the Wechsler scales. Additionally, this study further confirms the law of diminishing returns as applicable to different ages and time periods.     

Using Score Equating and Measurement Invariance to Examine the Flynn Effect in the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale

The Flynn effect (FE; i.e., increase in mean IQ scores over time) is commonly viewed as reflecting population shifts in intelligence, despite the fact that most FE studies have not investigated the assumption of score comparability. Consequently, the extent to which these mean differences in IQ scores reflect population shifts in cognitive abilities versus changes in the instruments used to measure these abilities is unclear. In this study, we used modern psychometric tools to examine the FE. First, we equated raw scores for each common subtest to be on the same scale across instruments. This enabled the combination of scores from all three instruments into one of 13 age groups before converting raw scores into Z scores. Second, using age-based standardized scores for standardization samples, we examined measurement invariance across the second (revised), third, and fourth editions of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale. Results indicate that while scores were equivalent across the third and fourth editions, they were not equivalent across the second and third editions. Results suggest that there is some evidence for an increase in intelligence, but also call into question many published FE findings as presuming the instruments' scores are invariant when this assumption is not warranted.     

A systematic literature review of the average IQ of sub-Saharan Africans

On the basis of several reviews of the literature, Lynn [Lynn, R., (2006). Race differences in intelligence: An evolutionary analysis. Augusta, GA: Washington Summit Publishers.] and Lynn and Vanhanen [Lynn, R., & Vanhanen, T., (2006). IQ and global inequality. Augusta, GA: Washington Summit Publishers.] concluded that the average IQ of the Black population of sub-Saharan Africa lies below 70. In this paper, the authors systematically review published empirical data on the performance of Africans on the following IQ tests: Draw-A-Man (DAM) test, Kaufman-Assessment Battery for Children (K-ABC), the Wechsler scales (WAIS & WISC), and several other IQ tests (but not the Raven's tests). Inclusion and exclusion criteria are explicitly discussed. Results show that average IQ of Africans on these tests is approximately 82 when compared to UK norms. We provide estimates of the average IQ per country and estimates on the basis of alternative inclusion criteria. Our estimate of average IQ converges with the finding that national IQs of sub-Saharan African countries as predicted from several international studies of student achievement are around 82. It is suggested that this estimate should be considered in light of the Flynn Effect. It is concluded that more psychometric studies are needed to address the issue of measurement bias of western IQ tests for Africans.     

IQ and the wealth of nations: How much reverse causality?

This paper uses data from 130 IQ test administrations worldwide and employs regression analysis to try to quantify the impact of living conditions on average IQ scores in nationally-representative samples. The study emphasizes the possible role of conditions at or near the test-takers' time of birth. The paper finds that the impact of living conditions is of much smaller magnitude than is suggested by just looking at correlations between average IQ scores and socioeconomic indicators. After controlling for test-takers' region of ancestry, the impact of parasitic diseases on average IQ is found to be statistically insignificant when test results from the Caribbean are included in the analysis. As far as IQ and the wealth of nations are concerned, causality thus appears to run mostly from the former to the latter. The test-takers' region of ancestry dominates the regression results. While differences in average scores worldwide can thus be plausibly viewed as being influenced by genetic differences across world regions, it is also possible that score differences are influenced by regional differences in culture that are independent of genetic factors. Differences in average IQ across world regions may change in the years ahead insofar as the strength of Flynn effects may not be uniform, but some regional differences in average g levels seem likely to continue indefinitely.     

Is the Flynn effect on g?: A meta-analysis

Black/White differences in mean IQ have been clearly shown to strongly correlate with g loadings, so large group differences on subtests of high cognitive complexity and small group differences on subtests of low cognitive complexity. IQ scores have been increasing over the last half century, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. Flynn effect gains are predominantly driven by environmental factors. Might these factors also be responsible for group differences in intelligence? The empirical studies on whether the pattern of Flynn effect gains is the same as the pattern of group differences yield conflicting findings. A psychometric meta-analysis on all studies with seven or more subtests reporting correlations between g loadings and standardized score gains was carried out, based on 5 papers, yielding 11 data points (total N = 16,663). It yielded a true correlation of − .38, and none of the variance between the studies could be attributed to moderators. It appears that the Flynn effect and group differences have different causes. Suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Secular Declines in Spearman's g: Some Evidence from the United States

The Flynn Effect (J. Flynn, 1987) refers to the apparent increases in intelligence quotient (IQ) observed over the past few decades. A related phenomenon is that the variance in test scores accounted for by Spearman's g (C. Spearman, 1904) varies according to IQ level. That is, g accounts for less variance in high IQ groups than in low IQ groups. Spearman termed this variant aspect of g the “law of diminishing returns.” This study extends prior research on the Flynn Effect and the law of diminishing returns by examining changes in the statistical importance of Spearman's g that may accompany secular increases in IQ. Based on the standardization data from the United States versions of the Wechsler scales (i.e., Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scales of Intelligence, D. Wechsler, 1967; Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, D. Wechsler, 1949; Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, D. Wechsler, 1955), this study indicated that, in most cases, the statistical significance of Spearman's g has indeed declined over the past several years. A. R. Jensen (1998) suggested that the components of the Flynn Effect warrant special investigation. The present study addresses this issue, in part by analyzing the Verbal and Performance subscales of the Wechsler scales. Additionally, this study further confirms the law of diminishing returns as applicable to different ages and time periods.     

The Flynn effect in South Africa

This is a study of secular score gains in South Africa. The findings are based on representative samples from datasets utilized in norm studies of popular mainstream intelligence batteries such as the WAIS as well as widely used test batteries which were locally developed and normed in South Africa. Flynn effects were computed in three ways. First, studies where two different groups take the same test, with several years in between, using representative or comparable samples were used. Second, studies where the same group takes two different test batteries at a specific time were used. Third, the score differences between English- and Afrikaans-speaking Whites in South Africa in the 20th century were compared. The Flynn effect in White groups in South Africa is somewhat smaller than the Flynn effect in Western, industrialized countries (total N = 6534), and the Flynn effect in Indian groups is substantially smaller (total N = 682). Non-verbal IQ scores surpassed increases in verbal IQ scores. The findings from English- and Afrikaans-speaking Whites evidence a leveling out of differences in score gains over the 20th century (total N = 79,310). A meta-regression analysis showed no clear support for the moderators a) method used for computing the Flynn effect gain, b) type of test battery, c) time span, d) quality of the sample, and e) average age of sample.     

Comparability of IQ scores over time

This study investigates the comparability of IQ scores. Three cohorts (1933/36, 1997/98, 2006) of Estonian students (N = 2173) are compared using the Estonian National Intelligence Test. After 72 years the secular rise of the IQ test scores is.79 SD. The mean .16 SD increase in the last 8 years suggests a rapid increase of the Flynn Effect (FE) in Estonia. The measurement is not strictly invariant, which means that the IQ scores of different cohorts are not directly comparable. Less than perfect comparability of test scores is caused by at least two factors: time between measurements and societal/educational changes between cohorts. As was to be expected, the meaning of subtests and the meaning of the g score have changed over time.     

Are cognitive differences between countries diminishing? Evidence from TIMSS and PISA

Cognitive ability differences between countries can be large, with average IQs ranging from approximately 70 in sub-Saharan Africa to 105 in the countries of north-east Asia. A likely reason for the great magnitude of these differences is the Flynn effect, which massively raised average IQs in economically advanced countries during the 20th century. The present study tests the prediction that international IQ differences are diminishing again because substantial Flynn effects are now under way in the less developed “low-IQ countries” while intelligence is stagnating in the economically advanced “high-IQ countries.” The hypothesis is examined with two periodically administered scholastic assessment programs. TIMSS has tested 8th-grade students periodically between 1995 and 2011 in mathematics and science, and PISA has administered tests of mathematics, science and reading between 2000 and 2009. In both TIMSS and PISA, low-scoring countries tend to show a rising trend relative to higher-scoring countries. Despite the short time series of only 9 and 16 years, the results indicate that differences between high-scoring and low-scoring countries are diminishing on these scholastic achievement tests. The results support the prediction that through a combination of substantial Flynn effects in low-scoring countries and diminished (or even negative) Flynn effects in high-scoring countries, cognitive differences between countries are getting smaller on a worldwide scale.     

Aging and vocabulary scores: a meta-analysis

Vocabulary scores were examined in a total of 210 articles, containing 324 independent pairings of younger and older adults, from the 1986-2001 issues of Psychology and Aging. The average effect size, favoring the old, was 0.80 SD. Production tests yielded smaller effects (0.68 SD) than multiple-choice tests (0.93 SD). Both age and education were found to be partially independent determinants of performance in production tests; age effects disappeared in multiple-choice tests as soon as education was taken into account. In addition, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale--Revised Vocabulary subtest (D. Wechsler, 1981) was also found to be sensitive to the Flynn effect (J. R. Flynn, 1987; i.e., increasing test scores with advancing birth year). The results question the approach of using age-group equality in vocabulary scores as a check on sample equivalence.     

IQ and social class

A brief overview is given of the nature-nurture debate elicited on the basis of Arthur Jensen's article concerning group differences in IQ test results published in 1969.Sandra Scarr-Salapatek found that the contribution of genetic variance in IQ test results tended to be larger in a more stimulating environment and proportionately smaller in a disadvantaged environment. This finding has been tested on data from a Swedish twin study. A comparison of within-pair similarity for MZ and DZ twins with varying social background has been made. Genetic variance seems to account for a greater proportion of the variance in IQ test scores in social group I and II compared to social group III. This is in accordance with the conclusions drawn by Scarr-Salapatek and thus tend to support the above-mentioned hypothesis. It therefore seems as though the potentially restricting effects of working class conditions for the development of the kind of abilities measured by conventional IQ tests would tend to reduce the degree to which genetic differences are expressed. More stimulating environmental opportunities, on the other hand, tend to allow a greater range of such differences in the middle and higher social classes.     

An increase of intelligence in China 1986–2012

The Flynn effect has been widely researched in Western and European nations, while it has been comparatively understudied in Asian countries. This study examines possible Flynn effects in China from 1985 to 86 and to 2011–12. Results are reported for an IQ increase among 12 year olds on the Full Scale IQ WISC-R (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised) of 6.19 IQ points, a gain on the Performance IQ of 6.55 IQ points, and a gain on the Verbal IQ of 1.91 IQ points.     

The secular rise in IQs in the Netherlands: Is the Flynn effect on g?

IQ scores have been increasing over the last half century, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. In this study, we focused on the question to what extent these secular gains are on the g factor. Two IQ batteries: the Interest-School achievement-Intelligence Test (ISI) and the Groningen Final Examination Primary Education (GALO) yielded small and modest negative correlations between standardized gains and g loadings. As these studies employ large samples this suggests that the combined literature now shows a modest negative relationship between d (the secular change in test score) and g.     

In the Netherlands the anti-Flynn effect is a Jensen effect

In this study, 63 observations of secular IQ changes (both Flynn and anti-Flynn effects) are collected from three demographically diverse studies of the Dutch population for the period 1975–2005 (representing the 1950–1990 birth cohorts), along with data on g loadings and subtest reliabilities. The method of correlated vectors is used to explore the association between Flynn and anti-Flynn effect magnitudes, both independently and together, and the g loadings of subtests. Despite a positive vector correlation the Flynn effects are not associated with the Jensen effect (r = .307, ns, N = 36), however the anti-Flynn effects are (r = .406, P = .05, N = 27). Combined, the vector correlation becomes negative but non-significant (r = −.111, ns, N = 63). Declines due to the anti-Flynn effect are estimated at −4.515 points per decade, whereas gains due to the Flynn effect are estimated at 2.175 points per decade. The N-weighted net of these is a loss of −1.350 points per decade, suggesting an overall tendency towards decreasing IQ in the Netherlands with respect to these cohorts. The Jensen effect on the anti-Flynn effect suggests that it may be related to bio-demographic changes within the Netherlands which have reduced ‘genetic-g’, despite the presence of large, parallel gains on subtests that may be relatively more sensitive to cultural-environmental improvements.     

Evidence of a Flynn Effect in Children's Human Figure Drawings (1902–1968)

The Flynn effect is the long-term trend for scores on tests of cognitive ability to increase across cohorts. Several samples of children's human figure drawings, published in 1902, 1926, 1963, and 1968, are examined for evidence of a Flynn effect. Results show that larger percentages of children draw more complete human figures over the course of the 20th century.