Choice Sets and Choice Intentions

Abstract

Researchers have widely accepted the argument that the Fishbein model generally predicts better if the intention measure corresponds to the predicted behavior with respect to target, action, context, and time frame. Although the model is routinely applied in situations involving choice among multiple alternatives, researchers frequently overlook the need to measure intentions so that they correspond to the multiple target behaviors that constitute the subject'S salient choice set. The present study was designed to demonstrate the effect of choice set on the measurement of behavioral intentions of American students. The data support the argument that Fishbein'S intention measure is quite sensitive to the choice set involved, perhaps one reason why intention measures sometimes fail to predict behavior accurately.     

How to Assess a Model's Testability and Identifiability

Formal definitions are given of the following intuitive concepts: (a) A model is quantitatively testable if its predictions are highly precise and narrow. (b) A model is identifiable if the values of its parameters can be ascertained from empirical observations. (c) A model is redundant if the values of some parameters can be deduced from others or if the values of some observables can be deduced from others. Various rules of thumb for nonredundant models are examined. The Counting Rule states that a model is quantitatively testable if and only if it has fewer parameters than observables. This rule can be safely applied only to identifiable models. If a model is unidentifiable, one must apply a generalization of the Counting Rule known as the Jacobian Rule. This rule states that a model is quantitatively testable if and only if the maximum rank (i.e., the number of linearly independent columns) of its Jacobian matrix (i.e., the matrix of partial derivatives of the function that maps parameter values to the predicted values of observables) is smaller than the number of observables. The Identifiability Rule states that a model is identifiable if and only if the maximum rank of its Jacobian matrix equals the number of parameters. The conclusions provided by these rules are only presumptive. To reach definitive conclusions, additional analyses must be performed. To illustrate the foregoing, the quantitative testability and identifiability of linear models and of discrete-state models are analyzed. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.     

Retroductive Analogy: How to and How Not to Make Claims of Good Reasons to Believe in Evolutionary and Anti-Evolutionary Hypotheses

This paper describes an argumentative fallacy we call ‘Retroductive Analogy.’ It occurs when the ability of a favored hypothesis to explain some phenomena, together with the fact that hypotheses of a similar sort are well supported, is taken to be sufficient evidence to accept the hypothesis. This fallacy derives from the retroductive or abductive form of reasoning described by Charles Sanders Peirce. According to Peirce’s account, retroduction can provide good reasons to pursue a hypothesis but does not, by itself, provide good reasons to believe the hypothesis. In successful applications of retroduction, pursuit leads to the accumulation of evidence. In retroductive analogy, comparison with other successful hypotheses is substituted for the genuine pursuit of evidence. We describe a case from ecological genetics in which retroduction plays a legitimate role as the initial phase of an ongoing research program that serves to accumulate genuine evidence for a hypothesis. We also examine two contexts in which the fallacy of retroductive analogy occurs: in defenses of Intelligent Design Theory and in defense of some hypotheses in Evolutionary Psychology.     

A Career Counseling Diagnostic Model: How to Assess and Counsel Career-Concerned Clients

This article provides a practical and proven diagnostic system that can be used by career counselors to assess and counsel their clients.     

Transmuted Expertise: How Technical Non-Experts Can Assess Experts and Expertise

To become an expert in a technical domain means acquiring the tacit knowledge pertaining to the relevant domain of expertise, at least, according to the programme known as “Studies of Expertise and Experience” (SEE). We know only one way to acquire tacit knowledge and that is through some form of sustained social contact with the group that has it. Those who do not have such contact cannot acquire the expertise needed to make technical judgments. They can, however, use social expertise to judge between experts or expert claims. Where social expertise is used to make technical judgments we refer to it as “transmuted expertise”. The various kinds of transmuted expertise are described and analysed.     

Tropes or Universals: How (Not) to Make One's Choice

This article discusses a familiar version of trope theory as opposed to a familiar version of the theory of universals, examining how these two rivals address the problem of “attribute agreement”—a problem that has been at the root of the very reason for developing these theories in the first place. The article shows that there is not much of a difference between the ways these two theories handle the problem, and in a more general way it argues that there is little reason for preferring one theory over the other. It is not interested in this claim only for the sake of the debate between trope theory and the theory of universals. Indeed, the reasons why it claims that it is so difficult to choose one theory over the other can be applied to other cases as well (where they might lead to claims of metaphysical equivalence).     

How Cognitive Load Influences Speakers' Choice of Referring Expressions

We report on two experiments investigating the effect of an increased cognitive load for speakers on the choice of referring expressions. Speakers produced story continuations to addressees, in which they referred to characters that were either salient or non‐salient in the discourse. In Experiment 1, referents that were salient for the speaker were non‐salient for the addressee, and vice versa. In Experiment 2, all discourse information was shared between speaker and addressee. Cognitive load was manipulated by the presence or absence of a secondary task for the speaker. The results show that speakers under load are more likely to produce pronouns, at least when referring to less salient referents. We take this finding as evidence that speakers under load have more difficulties taking discourse salience into account, resulting in the use of expressions that are more economical for themselves.     

The Epistemological Roots of Ecclesiastical Claims to Knowledge

In theoretical matters, ecclesiastical claims to knowledge have lead to various conflicts with science. Claims in orientational matters, sometimes connected to attempts to establish them as a rule for legislation, have often been in conflict with the justified claims of non-believers. In addition they violate the Principle of Autonomy of the individual, which is at the very heart of European identity so decisively shaped by the Enlightenment. The Principle of Autonomy implies that state legislation should not interfere in the life of individual citizens, as long as his or her actions do not violate the rights of others. This paper—using the example of the theory of evolution—rejects ecclesiastical claims to theoretical knowledge as completely unfounded and preposterous. In the case of orientational knowledge—using the example of euthanasia—ecclesiastical claims to (universalizable) knowledge are shown to be unfounded as well. The Church’s position with respect to euthanasia and a range of other bio-ethical topics, such as pre-marital sex, contraception, abortion, indissolubility of marriage, and homosexuality, rests on a very peculiar ethical position. This ethical position is the natural right theory, which—far from being universalizable—is shared by very few people. Among other things, this position presupposes the belief in God as the creator of nature, and the assumption that ethical norms can be derived from this premise. Thus ecclesiastical knowledge claims, cannot be justified in a way which could be reasonably supposed to be universally acceptable. Kant (see the quote) was the first to require this sort of justification. Claims that fail to implement Kant’s stipulations should be eliminated by what I would like to call “Kant’s razor”.     

人本主义心理学评价新探

本文从宏观上对人本主义心理学提出了新的评价。指出其主要贡献：（1）把人的本性与价值提到了心理学研究的首位;（2）突出人的动机系统与高级需要的重要作用;（3）提出实验客观范式与经验主观范式综合的新构想;（4）促进以人为本的组织管理与教育改革以及心理治疗的发展。根本缺陷：（1）未摆脱自然主义人性论的羁绊;（2）渗透个人本位主义精神;（3）缺乏实证性的检验与支持。     

Utilizing a Creative Task to Assess Langerian Mindfulness

Despite the growing interest in mindfulness and its demonstrated benefits, there are concerns about the reliance on subjective assessment tools. This study focused on the measurement of Langerian mindfulness, which refers to the active process of noticing new things and flexibly responding to the current context. Some of its key features overlap with the construct of creativity, which can be used to create a direct assessment for central components of mindfulness. The aim is to start a discussion in the field about how a direct creativity-based tool to current subjective measures might best be used.     

你声称了什么,必须得拿出证据来--一场有关同种疗法的官司

2000年7月11日,意大利电视台黄金时段的科普栏目Superquark播出了对所谓同种疗法批评的短片,科学家和医疗专家指出,这种疗法并无科学根据。用这种传统疗法治疗那些受严重疾病困绕的患者或许会有些效果,但这种效果主要应归于某种精神抚慰作用。     

Using Habituation of Looking Time to Assess Mental Processes in Infancy

Habituation of looking time has become the standard method for studying cognitive processes in infancy. This method has a long history and derives from the study of memory and habituation itself. Often, however, it is not clear how researchers make decisions about how to implement habituation as a tool to study processes such as categorization, object representation, and memory. This article describes the challenges for implementing this tool and describes a set of best practices for its use to study perception and cognition in infancy.     

航线驾驶安全行为多维评价量表的构建

结合现代航线驾驶工作特性及CRM和TEM模型基础上, 通过文献分析、专家访谈和开放式问卷调查, 筛选出现代航线飞行员驾驶安全所必备的27种关键行为特征, 构成中国文化背景下航线驾驶安全行为评价量表的检测项目。对118名中国航线飞行员测评数据的验证性因素分析表明, 由自动化系统认识、领导和管理、情境意识与决策、人际交流与合作技能组成的四维模型优于其他假设模型, 且在四个飞行阶段中均具有良好的信度和结构效度。以其中86名飞行员的安全绩效考核(安全规章、飞行作风、飞行技能和机组管理)数据和飞行员在每个飞行阶段的驾驶安全行为总体表现为效标变量, 以航线驾驶安全行为评价量表四个维度上的驾驶行为特征为预测变量分别进行层次回归分析, 结果表明: 航线驾驶安全行为多维评价量表具有良好的预测效度; 四个维度变量对维护不同飞行阶段的驾驶安全行为分别具有显著的贡献性, 且这种贡献性因飞行阶段的任务不同而有所差异。航线安全驾驶行为多维评价量表的构建, 不仅为航线飞行员安全驾驶行为规范性评估、机组驾驶行为问题诊断以及安全绩效考核提供了一套客观有效的评价工具, 而且也为有针对性的设计航线飞行员选拔模式和有效实施机组人员非技术性技能/CRM训练提供了一个良好的理论基础。     

Development of a Scale to Assess Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

This study presents a newly developed self-report Posttraumatic Stress Scale (PTSS) based on the DSM-IV (American Psychiatric Association, 1994). The scale assesses the trauma experienced by people via the specific criteria of reexperiencing, numbing and avoidance, hyperarousal, and functioning. The instrument was validated on 52 Vietnam veteran subjects diagnosed with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), 64 subjects who were attending professional counseling for trauma-related incidents, and 176 subjects who had never been diagnosed with PTSD or had professional counseling. The test survey comprised the PTSS, Beck's Anxiety Inventory, Beck's Depression Inventory, Impact of Events Scale, the 12-item General Health Questionnaire, Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology, and Symptoms Checklist–90R. The test-retest reliability of the scale was assessed over a four- to six-week period. The scale had a high test-retest reliability and showed high convergent and concurrent validity. Construct validity as assessed through the comparison between the three groups was high; however, factor analysis revealed only two factors instead of the three factors assumed in the DSM-IV. Overall, the scale may be used by clinicians or clients.