Testing the limits of optimistic bias: event and person moderators in a multilevel framework

N. D. Weinstein (1980) established that optimistic bias, the tendency to see others as more vulnerable to risks than the self, varies across types of event. Subsequently, researchers have documented that this phenomenon, also known as comparative optimism, also varies across types of people. The authors integrate hypotheses originally advanced by Weinstein concerning event-characteristic moderators with later arguments that such optimism may be restricted to certain subgroups. Using multilevel modeling over 7 samples (N = 1,436), the authors found that some degree of comparative optimism was present for virtually all individuals and events. Holding other variables constant, higher perceived frequency and severity were associated with less comparative optimism, higher perceived controllability and stereotype salience with more comparative optimism. Frequency, controllability, and severity were associated more with self-risk than with average-other risk, whereas stereotype salience was associated more with average-other risk than with self-risk. Individual differences also mattered: comparative optimism was related negatively to anxiety and positively to defensiveness and self-esteem. Interaction results imply that both individual differences and event characteristics should jointly be considered in understanding optimistic bias (or comparative optimism) and its application to risk communication.     

Validation de la version française de l'échelle de réflexivité en groupe de Carter et West, 1998

Several studies found reflexivity —the extent to which team discuss objectives, strategies and processes and adapt them to changes— to be related to team efficacy. Two studies were conducted with 80 teams (320 participants) to validate French version of reflexivity scale. In study 1 exploratory factor analysis revealed 3 factors which partly confirms the 2 factor structure (task reflexivity and social reflexivity) expected from the original study (Carter and West, 1998). Two items of the original task reflexivity scale load on a third factor we named strategic reflexivity. The three factor structure was replicated in study 2 with confirmatory factor analysis. Criterion validity is proved by correlations between reflexivity and team performance. Task, social and strategic reflexivity correlate with different aspects of team effectiveness. The French version of reflexivity scale is reliable and appropriate for evaluating team reflexivity.     

Unrealistic optimism about future life events: a cautionary note

A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are "unrealistically optimistic" in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. However, we demonstrate how unbiased responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism for purely statistical reasons. Specifically, we show how extant data from unrealistic optimism studies investigating people's comparative risk judgments are plagued by the statistical consequences of sampling constraints and the response scales used, in combination with the comparative rarity of truly negative events. We conclude that the presence of such statistical artifacts raises questions over the very existence of an optimistic bias about risk and implies that to the extent that such a bias exists, we know considerably less about its magnitude, mechanisms, and moderators than previously assumed.     

Comparative optimism and well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic

Past research suggests that being comparatively optimistic about one's risk for disease is associated with benefits to mental health, such as lowered stress and anxiety. However, few studies have longitudinally examined whether comparative optimism has the same protective benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current study examined levels of comparative optimism, changes in comparative optimism over time, and the association between comparative optimism and COVID-related mental and physical health outcomes among a US adult sample during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants completed online surveys at four timepoints, over the course of four weeks in May and June of 2020. Results from paired-samples t-tests revealed that comparative optimism was present, such that participants estimated their risk for COVID-19 as being significantly lower than that of others their age and sex. Results from linear mixed models suggested that people who were more comparatively optimistic reported lower anxiety, depression, and stress. However, at times when people were more comparatively optimistic, they also reported greater depression and poorer sleep quality. Together, the findings suggest that the relationship between comparative optimism and health may be more complex than previously anticipated and further research is needed to examine the potential pathways through which comparative optimism affects health.     

L'impact de la congruence objective des valeurs sur l'engagement normatif envers l'organisation

Numerous studies in organizational behaviour research have examined the congruence (i.e. fit, match, agreement and similarity) between two constructs as a predictor of some outcome. Edwards (1993, 1994) shows that, these studies operationalized congruence by collapsing two or more measures into a single index, such as an algebraic, absolute or squared difference and then, present numerous substantive and methodological problems that severely threaten the interpretability and conclusiveness of the obtained results. On the basis of the alternative approach proposed by Edwards (1993, 1994), we devoted ourselves to examine the effect of the objective congruence between the organisational valorisation of the mutual assistance in the work and the individual need for interpersonal solidarity on the organizational normative commitment. The main effects of the individual preferences or the mode of organization were not taken into account in the analysis. We thus used the procedure of polynomial regression proposed by Edwards (1993, 1994) to make sure that congruence, rather than the components which are subjacent to it, does have a specific effect on the dependent variables. We actually found out that, notably for Gabonese employees, the objective congruence between the perception of the organizational valorisation of the mutual assistance and the individual need for interpersonal solidarity has the effect on the normative commitment towards the organization (Mso: β = –0, 65, P < 0,001 and Msp: β = 0,77, P < 0,001; R² = 0,56), The level of organizational commitment increases with congruence between the personal and organizational values, then decreases with the shift.     

Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

People often judge themselves to be at lower risk for various negative life events than are their peers. The two empirical studies presented here show that the magnitude of this optimistic bias can be either negatively or positively related to the perceived frequency of the event, depending on whether people judge their own risk relative to that of an average peer (make comparative risk judgments) or judge their own and an average peer's risk separately (make absolute risk judgments). A new two-process model is presented to account for these results. The model combines a better-than-average heuristic with elements of the singular target-focused and singular- distributional models of Klar and colleagues (Klar & Giladi, 1997, 1999; Klar, Medding, & Sarel, 1996). The empirical results and model have many implications for the study of personal risk judgments, the optimistic bias, and risk-taking behavior.     

A pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating

Received academic wisdom holds that human judgment is characterized by unrealistic optimism, the tendency to underestimate the likelihood of negative events and overestimate the likelihood of positive events. With recent questions being raised over the degree to which the majority of this research genuinely demonstrates optimism, attention to possible mechanisms generating such a bias becomes ever more important. New studies have now claimed that unrealistic optimism emerges as a result of biased belief updating with distinctive neural correlates in the brain. On a behavioral level, these studies suggest that, for negative events, desirable information is incorporated into personal risk estimates to a greater degree than undesirable information (resulting in a more optimistic outlook). However, using task analyses, simulations, and experiments we demonstrate that this pattern of results is a statistical artifact. In contrast with previous work, we examined participants’ use of new information with reference to the normative, Bayesian standard. Simulations reveal the fundamental difficulties that would need to be overcome by any robust test of optimistic updating. No such test presently exists, so that the best one can presently do is perform analyses with a number of techniques, all of which have important weaknesses. Applying these analyses to five experiments shows no evidence of optimistic updating. These results clarify the difficulties involved in studying human ‘bias’ and cast additional doubt over the status of optimism as a fundamental characteristic of healthy cognition.     

乐观偏差的认知神经机制

乐观偏差是指人们趋向于认为好事发生在自己身上, 坏事发生在他人身上的一种心理期望(Weinstein, 1980)。乐观偏差的研究范式主要有社会比较范式、过去未来想象范式以及信息转变任务范式。运用fMRI对乐观偏差研究发现, 乐观偏差的神经机制主要涉及前喙扣带皮质和杏仁核、前额叶、多巴胺等。未来要结合社会比较和信息转变范式对乐观偏差进行测量; 研究乐观偏差认知机制的神经机制, 特别是采用ERP技术研究乐观偏差的认知机制; 同时要进一步揭示不同亚型乐观偏差的神经机制; 最后还要开展乐观偏差影响心理健康的神经机制研究。     

Comparative optimism for severity of negative health outcomes

People tend to be comparatively optimistic (i.e., believe that negative outcomes are less likely for themselves than for typical others) regarding their susceptibility to negative health outcomes. The present study investigates the extent to which perceptions of the severity of these health outcomes show similar comparative optimism. A student sample (study 1; N = 200) and a healthy non-student adult sample (study 2; N = 257) completed self-report measures of susceptibility, severity, worry, control and experience in relation to negative health outcomes. Participants in both studies demonstrated significant levels of comparative optimism for both perceived likelihood and severity of health outcomes. Comparative optimism concerning severity was very strongly associated (r = 0.85 to 0.89) with comparative optimism concerning susceptibility. In addition to being comparatively optimistic over their chances of experiencing negative health outcomes, people are also comparatively optimistic regarding how severe the health outcomes will be.     

Influence de la composition de la fratrie sur les pratiques éducatives parentales déclarées et sur la représentation de l'éducation chez les préadolescents

The aim of our study is to analyze the influence of the make up of the siblings on the parents' educational practices and also on the meaning of education to preadolescents. The results gathered from a sample of 88 preadolescents and their mothers show a difference of parental educational practices according to the make up of the siblings (relaxation of the practices with the youngest). The study of the meaning of education to preadolescents shows that only children are the most in accordance with their mothers. Children from large families imagine a future education further from mothers' educational practices.     

La fonction évaluative de la personnologie, vers la mise en évidence de deux dimensions de la valeur : la désirabilité sociale et l'utilité sociale

It is now widely recognized that Evaluation is a very powerful and fundamental dimension underlying trait structures, but what is Evaluation? In this paper we review various models (and empirical data) related to the signification of the Evaluative factor in personality traits. This review will lead us to defend the hypothesis that personality traits communicate two dimensions of value: (1) social desirability (SD) which refers to affective valence or motivation and (2) social utility (SU) which corresponds to the fundamental principle of evaluation in a society. We'll present empirical data supporting this conception.     

L'accord grammatical de genre dans la dysphasie de développement

Various studies report that children with Specific Language Impairment (SLI) have important difficulties in using grammatical morphemes expressing gender, number or tense but none of these studies let us determine whether agreement perception is impaired. To answer this question, 18 children with SLI and 18 control children without language impairment participated in two tasks testing production and perception of French gender agreement between determiner and noun. The results showed that (i) only children with SLI produced gender errors or determiner omissions whereas (ii) both groups were sensitive to agreement violations: they were slower and made more errors to categorize disagreeing determiner phrases (*the_[masc] banana_[fem]).     

Heart attack risk perception biases among hypertension patients: the role of educational level and worry

Risk biases such as comparative optimism (thinking one is better off than similar others) and risk inaccuracy (misestimating one's risk compared to one's calculated risk) for health outcomes are common. Little research has investigated racial or socioeconomic differences in these risk biases. Results from a survey of individuals with poorly controlled hypertension (N=813) indicated that participants showed (1) comparative optimism for heart attack risk by underestimating their heart attack risk compared to similar others, and (2) risk inaccuracy by overestimating their heart attack risk compared to their calculated heart attack risk. More highly educated participants were more comparatively optimistic because they rated their personal risk as lower; education was not related to risk inaccuracy. Neither race nor the federal poverty level was related to risk biases. Worry partially mediated the relationship between education and personal risk. Results are discussed as they relate to the existing literature on risk perception.     

Les effets de l'intégration spatiale de fenêtres ponctuelles sur la compréhension de documents illustrés

The format in which the information in an electronic document is presented has a non-negligible impact on the memorization and understanding of documents. Thus, the spatial integration of the elements in a text within an illustration makes it possible to improve performances compared to a conventional format (in which the text and the illustration are separate). In this study, the effects of integration on understanding are evaluated by using pop-up windows integrated in the illustration or located at its edge. This comparison makes it possible to test the hypothesis that the effect of integration is due to the fact that it is easier to establish a reference between the text and the elements corresponding to the illustration during learning. The results reveal an improvement in performance only on a task involving text-illustration co-referencing and for the period when the document was being viewed.     

Le paradigme de Jellison et Green : de la clairvoyance à la réactivité normative

This article questions congruence between the contents of the definition of the concept of normative perspicacity and Jellison and Green's paradigm to obtain its measurement. It centres the discussion on the capacity of the subjects to answer the changes of instructions and restores it in the study of complex mechanisms governing the relations of the individuals with the social standards.     

Optimism across cultures: In response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak

Based on our early research, we predicted that the Chinese may be more optimistic and less pessimistic than North Americans in response to negative life events. A survey was conducted to investigate optimism cross culturally in the context of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreaks in Canada and China. Chinese students in Beijing and European Canadians in Toronto answered questions about their perceptions of SARS. No significant cultural difference was found on dispositional optimism, as measured by the Revised Life Orientation Test (LOT-R). Unrealistic optimism was measured in the context of SARS. Both groups demonstrated unrealistic optimism (i.e. reporting that the self was less likely than an average person to get infected with SARS). Such optimistic bias was stronger among Chinese than among Canadians. Compared to the actual infection rates in Beijing and Toronto, both Chinese and Canadian participants overestimated their own chances of getting infected, indicating that they were being pessimistic. Indeed, Chinese were less pessimistic than Canadians. In addition, even though the Chinese reported more inconvenience brought by SARS than did Canadians, they also reported more positive changes brought by SARS, reflecting the Chinese dialectical views of events. Implications for research on optimism in context are discussed.