人力资源效用分析的研究与应用进展

在以往的许多研究中,运用效用分析方法评价和预测人力资源活动的效能一直受到人们的关注。该文对效用分析的研究和应用做了简要回顾,主要结论有(1)效用分析作为多特征效用理论在人力资源管理领域中的应用,对人力资源活动评价具有重要意义(2)效用模型参数SD的估计方法研究仍然是现在研究的焦点,三种常用参数估计方法特别受到研究的关注(3)人力资源决策情景的效用研究已经引起人们的广泛重视,效用概念、效用信息表示方法、决策情景因素和效用评价方法等都对人们的决策行为产生影响(4)在传统效用模型基础上,对一般的人力资源活动进行效用分析是应用研究的发展趋势。该文最后对效用分析研究做了总结和展望。     

人力资源效用分析的研究与应用进展

在以往的许多研究中,运用效用分析方法评价和预测人力资源活动的效能一直受到人们的关注。该对效用 研究和应用做了简要回顾,主要结论有：（１）效用分析作为多特征效用理论在人力资源管理领域中的应用,对人力资源活动评价具有重要意义;（２）效用模型参数ＳＤｙ的估计方法研究仍然是瑞研究的焦点,三种在数估计方法特别受到研究的关注;（３）人力资源决策情景的效用研究已经引起人们的广泛重视,效用概念,效用信息表示方法     

投资决策风险的周边组织因素和多阶段评估

本研究在现场研究基础上,设计了动态投资决策实验模拟任务,选取53名工商管理硕士研究生被试,研究投资决策不同决策阶段上所具有的动态风险特征。结果发现：不同的投资决策项目具有不同的风险特征;投资决策项目在不同决策阶段上的风险特征具有动态性;决策情景中责任意识、环境与组织管理周边情景等关键因素对决策风险具有重要作用。     

转换加工研究回顾

任务转换是人类认知活动的基本方式,其过程转换加工为中央执行系统的重要功能。转换加工在工作记忆中体现为控制竞争同一认知资源的两项任务之间相互转换的过程。执行转换任务的反应时比执行重复任务的反应时更长,两反应时之差为转换代价。行为实验和神经生理学实验在转换加工的研究范式、转换代价的成分以及执行控制的理论等领域取得一定成果,但也存在诸多争议。事件相关电位和功能磁共振成像技术的联合使用能直观地反映大脑转换加工的时、空动态变化特征,将为转换加工的进一步研究提供证据     

事件持续时间对情景模型更新的影响

采用移动窗口技术,探讨文本阅读中事件持续时间对情景模型更新的影响。实验1探讨不同的事件持续时间对情景模型更新进程的影响。结果发现,情景模型的更新受到事件持续时间的影响;实验2探讨在不同的事件持续时间条件下,情景模型的更新符合动态观还是静态观,结果支持了情景模型更新的动态观。该研究表明,事件持续时间与时间转换大小之间的关系对情景模型的更新起着重要的作用。同时,情景模型的更新符合动态观。     

时间情景模型的动态更新:从短时工作记忆到长时工作记忆

采用移动窗口技术与多指标探测范式,探讨了时间转换大小对情景模型更新的影响,包括两个实验。实验1探讨在短时工作记忆中不同时间跨度(大/小)转换条件对情景模型更新的影响;实验2探讨在长时工作记忆中时间跨度大的转换条件下情景模型的更新进程。研究结果表明,时间信息随着跨度大小变化在不同的记忆阶段进行着不同的加工。在短时工作记忆中,时间跨度小的条件下,在实体移除指标上实体信息在时间转换后提取速度显著变慢,说明该条件下完成了情景模型的更新;时间跨度大的条件下,在实体移除指标上实体信息在转换之后提取速度无显著差异,说明该条件下情景模型不能得到完全的更新;而在长时工作记忆中,时间跨度大的条件下,在实体移除指标上实体信息在转换之后提取速度显著变慢了,说明完成了情景模型的更新。该结果表明,在短时工作记忆与长时工作记忆阶段进行着不同的更新加工,表现为时间情景模型更新的动态性。     

双任务间隔对特征搜索方式的影响

采用RSVP序列,以两个实验探讨了双任务间隔对特征搜索方式的影响。要求试被首先辨认数字序列中包含的字母(任务一,T1),随后完成特征搜索任务(任务二,T2)。在实验一中,T2是检测在同时呈现的多个椭圆中是否有方向不一致的目标出现;在实验二中,T2是检测同时呈现的多个灰色圆点中是否有红色圆点出现。结果发现:随T1-T2间距缩短,T2的正确率显著下降;T2所含刺激数目的增加并未引起其正确率下降,即任务转换只影响特征搜索的绩效而未改变搜索方式,特征搜索仍以并行方式进行。根据动态控制理论,由于在本研究范式中两个任务之间存在任务转换过程,特征搜索应当为系列搜索。可见上述结果与动态控制理论不符。     

群体讨论过程中信息策略的变化

启发式是人类决策的重要特征,然而对于群体分布式加工条件下的启发式研究却是一个困难的任务。本研究利用多特征多选择决策任务与过程跟踪技术,对群体讨论条件下的启发式决策特点进行研究。结果发现,在群体讨论情景下,决策者的信息呈现策略要更加完全,但决策者的信息搜索负荷并没有因此而增加,群体的各成员之间形成了信息策略上的分布式加工,所以在群体工作情景中的表现出相互依赖性与内隐加工机制。     

积极情绪对任务转换的影响

通过两个行为实验考察了积极情绪图片所诱发的情绪状态对任务转换的影响及其机制。研究任务是数字分类任务,分为保持和转换两个阶段。首先要求被试对靶刺激形成一定的习惯化反应,然后改变任务要求。实验1以53名大学生为被试,分别在积极情绪、消极情绪和中性条件下完成任务,发现在与中性条件相比时,积极情绪促进任务转换,消极情绪延缓任务转换。实验2以37名大学生为被试,增加了一种转换条件,考察积极情绪促进任务转换的心理原因,结果表明积极情绪因偏好新异刺激而促进任务转换     

时间维度在记叙文理解中的作用

采用事件分割范式探讨了中文条件下时间维度在记叙文理解中的作用。实验1在中文条件下重复了Speer和Zacks(2005)年的研究,结果发现读者更多将时间短语所在位置作为分割边界,表明时间转换在情景模型更新中发挥了重要作用。实验2探讨了在没有时间短语条件下读者对文本分割的情况,结果发现读者主要是按照事件单元进行分割;实验3a和3b在文本的事件单元中插入时间短语,形成时间转换与事件转换分离的条件,探讨读者在这种时间转换与事件单元转换不一致的条件下所采用的分割策略,结果表明,读者更多仍然按照事件单元转换进行分割,而且对事件单元转换的依赖强于时间转换,但同时时间短语仍对文本的分割有一定影响。上述结果表明,事件单元作为建构记叙文心理表征的核心单元,时间维度作为事件单元转换的线索,只有在标识事件转换的情况下,才能引发读者情景模型的更新。     

幸福的体验效用与非理性决策行为的偏差机制

基于体验效用的幸福包括预期幸福、即时幸福和回忆幸福,这三者有极其重要的本质差异,导致决策偏差和非理性。本研究运用行为科学和认知神经科学相结合的研究方法,首次从行为层次—信息加工层次—脑神经层次三个层面,立体地开展幸福感的体验效用与非理性决策行为研究。研究计划分为三个部分:(1)预期幸福、即时幸福和回忆幸福的本质特点和行为规律;(2)三种体验效用产生偏差的认知心理机制;(3)体验效用与非理性决策偏差的脑神经机制。通过系列研究,拟解决三个关键问题:(1)在人类判断与决策过程中,预期、即时和回忆三种效用是如何影响人们的判断与决策?(2)三种体验效用出现偏差的信息加工特点和脑神经机制究竟是什么?(3)三种效用的偏差规律及对政府公共政策的启示。对这些问题的深入探讨,不仅对决策理论研究的发展是一个贡献;对政府管理制定有效的公共政策,避免"牺牲体验追求指标",解决"幸福悖论",同样有很强的实践指导意义。     

Decision-making styles and vocational maturity: An alternative perspective

This study examined the relationship between decision-making styles and vocational maturity with a focus on the current discrepancy between research and theory regarding the utility of rational decision making. While rational decision making has been central to many theoretical formulations in career development, recent research findings have not unequivocally supported this proposition. Based on the assumption that rational decision making would be more important to those individuals who do not have access to many of the traditional sources of vocational maturity, this study attempted to account for the inconsistency between research and theory by systematically considering relevant population attributes. The results of this investigation were consistent across two independent samples of community college students, in that a reliance upon the rational style was the only significant decision-making style predictor of vocational maturity; the dependent and intuitive decision-making styles did not add significant increments to the regression equations. The discussion highlighted the advantages of viewing theory, research, and practice in career decision making from a perspective that explicitly incorporates relevant attributes of given populations.     

TO LEAD, LAG, OR MATCH: ESTIMATING THE FINANCIAL IMPACT OF PAY LEVEL POLICIES

In this study, the Boudreau and Berger (1985a) retention/acquisition model is modified in order to develop a utility model that can be used to assess the impact of alternative pay level policies. This paper then demonstrates how the model could be used to assess the financial impact of alternative pay level policies for an organization whose current policy is to match the market. In demonstrating this, estimates of the effect of pay level on employee and applicant behaviors are presented. The utility model is then used to translate these effects into financial terms and compare them against the wage costs associated with alternative pay level policies. Finally, break-even analysis is used to suggest how decision makers might use utility results when making decisions about pay level policy. The implications for pay level policy and the role of utility analysis in compensation decision making are discussed.     

Interrupting the cascade: orienting contributes to decision making even in the absence of visual stimulation

Most systematic studies of human decision making approach the subject from a cost analysis point of view and assume that people make the highest utility choice. Very few articles investigate subjective decision making, such as that involving preference, although such decisions are very important for our daily functioning. We have argued (Shimojo, Simion, Shimojo, & Scheier, 2003) that an orienting bias effectively leads to the preference decision by means of a positive feedback loop involving mere exposure and preferential looking. The illustration of this process is a continually increasing gaze bias toward the eventual choice, which we call the gaze cascade effect. In the present study, we interrupt the natural process of preference selection, but we show that gaze behavior does not change even when the stimuli are removed from observers' visual field. This demonstrates that once started, the involvement of orienting in decision making cannot be stopped and that orienting acts independently of the presence of visual stimuli. We also show that the cascade effect is intrinsically linked to the decision itself and is not triggered simply by a tendency to look at preferred targets.     

Conflict and the Stochastic-Dominance Principle of Decision Making

One of the key principles underlying rational models of decision making is the idea that the decision maker should never choose an action that is stochastically dominated by another action. In the study reported in this article, violations of stochastic dominance frequently occurred when the payoffs produced by two actions were negatively correlated (in conflict), but no violations occurred when the payoffs were positively correlated (no conflict). This finding is contrary to models which assume that choice probability depends on the utility of each action, and the utility for an action depends solely on its own payoffs and probabilities. This article also reports, for the first time ever, the distribution of response times observed in a risky decision task. Both the violations of stochastic dominance and the response time distributions are explained in terms of a dynamic theory of decision making called multiattribute decision field theory.     

An evaluation of human act generation performance

Act generation is important in decision making in ill-defined problems where the subject must synthesize actions that might solve the problem. Two experiments explored human abilities to generate actions which might solve ill-defined decision problems. Subjects were given unlimited time to suggest as many solutions as possible. Their suggestions were compared to a hierarchical structural model of the actions developed by the experimenters that could be taken to solve the problem. Although subjects were capable of generating several actions that might be worth taking, their suggestions were far from complete. The second experiment replicated and extended these results by introducing instructions to generate quality actions. It employed a structural model derived from cluster analysis, an improved utility estimation technique, and offered substantial monetary incentives for quality or quantity of actions generated. This study confirmed the general conclusion that subjects fail to generate important high-utility actions. The implications of this result are discussed in respect to decision analysis in which a complete structural model of the decision problem is highly desirable.     

The relationship between moral decision making and patterns of consolidation and transition in moral judgment development

Following models that describe intraindividual correlates of stage transitions (S. S. Snyder & D. H. Feldman, 1984), this study assessed the relation between a measure of consolidation and transition in moral judgment development and the utility of moral concepts in sociomoral decision making. The study extends previous research in suggesting that individuals use moral concepts differently as they cycle through periods of consolidation and transition. With multiple cross-sectional and longitudinal samples, findings indicate that participants' reliance on a Kohlbergian moral framework as measured by the Defining Issues Test is highest during periods of consolidation and lowest during transitions. As participants move into periods of consolidation, the utility of moral stage information increases. Thus, this study indicates that the consolidation and transition model can be used to help identify individuals who are more or less likely to use Kohlberg's moral stages in their moral decision making.     

决策过程中参照点效应研究述评

Kahneman和Tversky提出的“参照点效应”概念,对决策者的认知编码和信息整合方式做出了合理的解释,并对传统的理性决策理论提出了挑战。近年来,关于参照点效应的研究也一直受到众多学者的重视。文章系统阐述了参照点效应的相关概念和最新研究进展,并提出了参照点效应未来研究的4个趋势：日益重视多重参照点效应的研究、开始关注动态决策中的参照点变化机制、重视群体决策过程中的参照点效应研究、注重在现实决策任务中验证和发展参照点效应的相关理论