Development and Testing of an Abbreviated Numeracy Scale: A Rasch Analysis Approach

Research has demonstrated that individual differences in numeracy may have important consequences for decision making. In the present paper, we develop a shorter, psychometrically improved measure of numeracy—the ability to understand, manipulate, and use numerical information, including probabilities. Across two large independent samples that varied widely in age and educational level, participants completed 18 items from existing numeracy measures. In Study 1, we conducted a Rasch analysis on the item pool and created an eight‐item numeracy scale that assesses a broader range of difficulty than previous scales. In Study 2, we replicated this eight‐item scale in a separate Rasch analysis using data from an independent sample. We also found that the new Rasch‐based numeracy scale, compared with previous measures, could predict decision‐making preferences obtained in past studies, supporting its predictive validity. In Study, 3, we further established the predictive validity of the Rasch‐based numeracy scale. Specifically, we examined the associations between numeracy and risk judgments, compared with previous scales. Overall, we found that the Rasch‐based scale was a better linear predictor of risk judgments than prior measures. Moreover, this study is the first to present the psychometric properties of several popular numeracy measures across a diverse sample of ages and educational level. We discuss the usefulness and the advantages of the new scale, which we feel can be used in a wide range of subject populations, allowing for a more clear understanding of how numeracy is associated with decision processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numeracy as a Predictor of Adaptive Risky Decision Making

Numeracy or one's ability to appropriately process and use numerical information has been shown to be an important individual difference factor in decision making. The current study utilized a risky decision‐making task (called the “cups task”) in which choices are made to both earn and avoid losing hypothetical money. Critically, this design allowed investigators to examine numeracy‐related differences in adaptive decision‐making as measured by sensitivity to expected value (EV) differences over 54 paired‐choice trials—some in which it was advantageous to take a risk and some in which it was not. Results showed that in an undergraduate sample of 114 individuals, the less numerate took more risks and were less sensitive to varying EV levels than the more numerate, especially when it was disadvantageous to take a risk and when the choice involved a potential loss (rather than a gain). These results are consistent with a dual processing account in which the more numerate are much better than the less numerate at extracting the precise affective “gist” of the numerical information, which is then used to determine the goodness or badness of a particular choice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numeracy Predicts More Effortful and Elaborative Search Strategies in a Complex Risky Choice Context: A Process‐Tracing Approach

The goal of the current study was to explore information search and processing differences between individuals who are less and more numerate in an attempt to better understand the mechanisms that might differentiate the choices they make. We did so using a computerized process‐tracing system known as MouseTrace, which presented monetary gambles in an alternative × attribute matrix with outcome (dollar amount) and probability information as attributes. This information was initially occluded but could be revealed by clicking on the cell that contained the desired information. Beginning with nine gambles offering the chance of gaining or losing a specified amount, participants (N = 110) narrowed down the options (to three and then one) using an inclusion or exclusion strategy. Consistent with previous research, inclusion was a more effortful strategy, and individuals who were higher in numeracy were more likely to select prospects with the highest expected value. Process measures revealed these individuals expended more effort (i.e., attended to and sought out more information and processed it in greater depth) and exhibited more compensatory processing than those who were lower in numeracy, but this sometimes depended on whether one was asked to include or exclude. These results serve as further evidence that individuals with higher levels of numeracy often engage in more elaborative processing of the decision task, which tends to lead to more optimal choices. However, they also suggest that individuals are adaptive and that the specific situation can matter. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Role of Numeracy and Intelligence in Health‐Risk Estimation and Medical Data Interpretation

Despite ample evidence that numeracy is an important influence on patient understanding and use of health‐related information, there is a dearth of studies examining the concept's relationship to other individual differences measures that may underlie complex judgments in the health domain. In this study, we compared the relative contributions of selected extant numeracy measures and general intelligence and other measures to varied judgment and decision‐making outcomes. Two hundred participants completed numeracy items, subscales of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scales, the need for cognition scale, and four relevant outcome measures including risk estimation and medical data interpretation. A numeracy scale constructed using item response and confirmatory factor analyses was consistently the strongest predictor across all outcome measures and accounted for unique variance over and above general intelligence. The results support the concept of numeracy as an independent construct that merits consideration in patient communication. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Swedish translation and validation of the Disgust Scale: a measure of disgust sensitivity

The psychometric properties of a Swedish version of Haidt, McCauley and Rozin's (1994) Disgust Scale were studied. Confirmatory factor analysis of the original model with eight factors (food, animals, body products, sex, body envelope violations, death, hygiene, and magic) provided satisfactory fit to the data (N= 280), significantly better than to the alternative one-factor and five-factor models. As in the US version women scored significantly higher than men. Positive correlations with measures of food neophobia (r= 0.30, p < 0.0001) and nausea frequency (rs= 0.28, p < 0.001) indicate convergent validity. In a separate study (N= 30) a behavioral measure of the willingness to touch, hold, and taste disgusting food objects correlated negatively with the Disgust Scale (r=-0.46, p < 0.01), indicating criterion-related validity.     

决策风格的理论发展及建构：基于信息加工视角

决策风格是人们在决策中表现出来的习惯性或独特的行为模式, 对决策、管理等领域均有重要影响。近年兴起的决策风格理论主要基于个体信息加工策略, 如基于双加工理论和基于后悔情绪的决策风格模型等。决策风格对个体决策的影响表现在决策策略与偏差、情绪和无意识加工等方面。该领域在诸如决策风格的主要理论、测量工具和理论检验等方面亦取得积极进展, 未来研究方向应注意基于双加工理论和进化心理学建构决策风格理论。     

Decision‐making competence: External validation through an individual‐differences approach

This study asks to what extent (a) individuals show consistent performance differences across typical behavioral decision‐making tasks, and (b) how those differences correlate with plausible real‐world correlates of good decision making. Seven tasks, chosen to span the domain of decision‐making skills, were administered to participants in an ongoing longitudinal study providing extensive social, psychological, and behavioral measures. Performance scores on individual tasks generally showed small, positive inter‐task correlations. An aggregate measure of decision‐making competence (DMC) was appropriately correlated with plausible sources, concomitants, and outcomes of good decision making, suggesting the underlying construct's external validity. Higher DMC scores were associated with more intact social environments, more constructive cognitive styles, and fewer ‘maladaptive’ risk behaviors. In each case, DMC adds to the predictive validity of general measures of cognitive ability. These results suggest that poor decision making on common laboratory tasks is related to real‐world antecedents and consequences of poor decision making. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and Validation of the Scientific Reasoning Scale

Scientific findings and innovations play an important role in a range of decisions faced by nonscientists, yet little is known about the skills that nonscientists need in order to read and evaluate scientific evidence. Drawing on research in public understanding of science, cognitive developmental psychology, and behavioral decision research, we develop an individual difference measure of scientific reasoning skills, defined as the skills needed to evaluate scientific findings in terms of the factors that determine their quality. We present the results of three studies assessing its psychometric validity. Our results indicate that the Scientific Reasoning Scale (SRS) is internally consistent and distinct from extant measures of scientific literacy. Participants with higher SRS scores are more likely to have beliefs consistent with the scientific consensus on potentially contentious issues, above and beyond education, political and religious beliefs, and scores on two widely used measures of scientific literacy. Participants with higher SRS scores also had better performance on a task requiring them to analyze scientific information. Our results suggest that the SRS provides a theoretically informed contribution to decoding lay responses to scientific results and controversies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A neuropsychological dimension for anchoring effects

Previous research has shown that strength of handedness predicts differences in sensory illusions, Stroop interference, episodic memory, and beliefs about body image and the origin of species. Recent evidence also suggests handedness differences in the susceptibility to information framing and persuasion. The present paper extends this line of work to decision anchoring effects. In Experiment 1, 131 introductory psychology students responded to 12 real‐world knowledge questions after being given random, uninformative high or low anchors. Results indicated that “strong‐handers” showed larger anchoring effects than “mixed‐handers.” In Experiment 2, 89 introductory psychology students responded to 6 real‐world knowledge questions in a modified, two‐step anchoring task in which participants were given a credible source for the anchored information and asked to give pre‐ and post‐anchor estimates. In contrast to Experiment 1, results revealed that mixed‐ and strong‐handers were affected similarly by anchoring. In Experiment 3, 158 students were asked to estimate the answer to one of two versions of 8! (8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 or 1 × 2 × 3 × 4 × 5 × 6 × 7 × 8)—a multiplication problem in which the high and low anchors are inherently informative. Here, mixed‐handers showed larger anchoring effects than strong‐handers. A theory centered around the notion of hemispheric specialization and the communication between the two halves of the brain as well as arguments about the informativeness of anchors, metacognition, and recent theorizing in the anchoring literature are used to account for these data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Development and Testing of a New Version of the Cognitive Reflection Test Applying Item Response Theory (IRT)

The cognitive reflection test (CRT) is a short measure of a person's ability to resist intuitive response tendencies and to produce a normatively correct response, which is based on effortful reasoning. Although the CRT is a very popular measure, its psychometric properties have not been extensively investigated. A major limitation of the CRT is the difficulty of the items, which can lead to floor effects in populations other than highly educated adults. The present study aimed at investigating the psychometric properties of the CRT applying item response theory analyses (a two‐parameter logistic model) and at developing a new version of the scale (the CRT‐long), which is appropriate for participants with both lower and higher levels of cognitive reflection. The results demonstrated the good psychometric properties of the original, as well as the new scale. The validity of the new scale was also assessed by measuring correlations with various indicators of intelligence, numeracy, reasoning and decision‐making skills, and thinking dispositions. Moreover, we present evidence for the suitability of the new scale to be used with developmental samples. Finally, by comparing the performance of adolescents and young adults on the CRT and CRT‐long, we report the first investigation into the development of cognitive reflection. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk preferences in young children: early evidence of individual differences in reaction to potential gains and losses

New methods were developed for studying risky decision making in children as young as age five. Each child was given a block of ‘gain’ trials, for example, a choice between a sure gain of one prize and a 50:50 chance of gaining either two prizes or no prize, and a block of ‘loss’ trials, for example, a choice between a sure loss of one prize and a 50:50 chance of losing either two prizes or no prize. We were thus able to compare risky choice for gains and losses at the level of the individual child. In each of two experiments a variety of individual difference variables were measured, including in Experiment 2, the child's parent's scores on the same task. Across experiments, the preponderance of choices was of the risky option. However, most children and adults made more risky choices in the domain of losses than in the domain of gains. Predictors of individual differences in children included shyness, impulsivity, and the risk taking of the child's parent. We suggest that methods are now in place to encourage further studies of decision processes in young children. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robustness of Decision‐Making Competence: Evidence from Two Measures and an 11‐Year Longitudinal Study

Decision‐making competence (DMC) is the ability to follow normative principles when making decisions. In a longitudinal analysis, we examine the robustness of DMC over time, as measured by two batteries of paper‐and‐pencil tasks. Participants completed the youth version (Y‐DMC) at age 19 and/or the adult version (A‐DMC) 11 years later at age 30, as part of a larger longitudinal study. Both measures are composed of tasks adapted from ones used in experimental studies of decision‐making skills. Results supported the robustness of these measures and the usefulness of the construct. Response patterns for Y‐DMC were similar to those observed with a smaller initial sample drawn from the same population. Response patterns for A‐DMC were similar to those observed with an earlier community sample. Y‐DMC and A‐DMC were significantly correlated, for participants who completed both measures, 11 years apart, even after controlling for measures of cognitive ability. Nomological validity was observed in correlations of scores on both tests with measures of cognitive ability, cognitive style, and environmental factors with predicted relationships to DMC, including household socioeconomic status, neighborhood disadvantage, and paternal substance abuse. Higher Y‐DMC and A‐DMC scores were also associated with lower rates of potentially risky and antisocial behaviors, including adolescent delinquency, cannabis use, and early sexual behavior. Thus, the Y‐DMC and A‐DMC measures appear to capture a relatively stable, measurable construct that increases with supportive environmental factors and is associated with constructive behaviors. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual Differences in Risky Decision Making: A Meta‐analysis of Sensation Seeking and Impulsivity with the Balloon Analogue Risk Task

To represent the state‐of‐the‐art in an effort to understand the relation between personality and risk taking, we selected a popular decision task with characteristics that parallel risk taking in the real world and two personality traits commonly believed to influence risk taking. A meta‐analysis is presented based on 22 studies of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task from which correlations with sensation seeking and impulsivity assessments could be obtained. Results calculated on a total of 2120 participants showed that effect size for the relation of sensation seeking with risk taking was in the small–moderate range ( = .14), whereas the effect size for impulsivity was just around the small effect size threshold ( = .10). Although we considered participants' demographics as moderators, we found only significantly larger effect sizes for the older adolescents and young adults compared with other ages. The findings of the present review supported the view that inconsistencies in personality–risk research were mostly due to random fluctuations of specific effect sizes, rather than to lack of theoretical ties or to measurement unreliability. It is also concluded that studies aimed at relating individual differences in personality to performance in experimental decision tasks need an appropriate sample size to achieve the power to produce significant results. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying the Distress Cues that Influence Support Provision: A Paired Comparison Approach

ABSTRACT

Just as chemistry has methods for determining the composition of unknown substances, psychology needs, but has lacked, effective methods for identifying the “active ingredients” of social stimuli. We describe such a method and apply it to identify the verbal and nonverbal distress cues that serve as signals prompting others to provide social support. This method allowed us to identify 55 such cues. Furthermore, the cues that were salient in the minds of potential support providers depended on their goals. For example, when deciding whether someone needed support, negative nonverbal cues (e.g., distressed persons' fidgeting) were more salient, but when deciding whether one was willing to provide support, cues that suggested a positive outcome for the support seeker (e.g., distressed persons' positive attitude and open-mindedness) were more salient.     

A Strange Alliance: Isaiah Berlin and the Liberalism of the Fringes

This paper is a homage to Isaiah Berlin. It argues that Berlin's philosophy has preceded many of the present discussions concerning liberalism-culturalism. In an age in which most liberal philosophers ignored the importance of belonging, of member-ship, identity, cultural affiliations and historical continuity, Berlin stands out as a welcome exception. His philosophy is therefore fresh and innovative as it was in the sixties and seventies when it was written. It carries within it the germs of the liberalism of the fringes advocated nowadays by members of national minorities, immigrants, women, and gays, the kind of liberalism which fits well the politics of identity and recognition.     

The pros and cons of funnel plots as an aid to risk communication and patient decision making

Funnel plots, which simultaneously display a sample statistic and the corresponding sample size for multiple cases, have a range of applications. In medicine, they are used to display treatment outcome rates and caseload volume by institution, which can inform strategic decisions about health care delivery. We investigated lay people's understanding of such plots and explored their suitability as an aid to individual treatment decisions. In two studies, 172 participants answered objective questions about funnel plots representing the surgical outcomes (survival or mortality rates) of institutions varying in caseload, and indicated their preferred institutions. Accuracy for extracting objective information was high, unless question phrasing was inconsistent with the plot's survival/mortality framing, or participants had low numeracy levels. Participants integrated caseload‐volume and outcome‐rate data when forming preferences, but were influenced by reference lines on the plot to make inappropriate discriminations between institutions with similar outcome rates. With careful choice of accompanying language, funnel plots can be readily understood and are therefore a useful tool for communicating risk. However, they are less effective as a decision aid for individual patient's treatment decisions, and we recommend refinements to the standard presentation of the plots if they are to be used for that purpose.     

A Swedish adaptation of the Emotional Contagion Scale: factor structure and psychometric properties

The Emotional Contagion Scale (ECS) is a self-report scale used to measure individual differences in susceptibility to converge towards the emotions expressed by others. The original American ECS (Doherty, 1997), translated into Swedish, was completed by 665 undergraduate students in two independent samples (N = 233 and N = 432, respectively). To investigate the factor structure of the ECS, confirmatory factor analyses of alternative models derived from previous research in emotion and emotional contagion were conducted. The results showed that the proposed one-dimensional structure of the ECS was not tenable. Instead a multi-facet model based on a differential emotions model and a hierarchal valence/differential emotions model was supported. Cross-validation on the second independent sample demonstrated and confirmed the multi-faceted property of the ECS and the equality of the factor structure across samples and genders. With regard to homogeneity and test-retest reliability, the Swedish version showed acceptable results and was in concordance with the original version.     

Subjective valuation and asymmetrical motivational systems: implications of scope insensitivity for decision making

Studies using the Iowa Gambling Task have revealed individual differences in performance on the task. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that approach and avoidance motivations influence decision making through the process of subjective valuation. We examined the implications of a high sensitivity to gains or losses from two perspectives which we labeled scalar multiplication and valuation by feeling. Using two versions of the Iowa Gambling Task, we find evidence supporting the view that asymmetry in the systems regulating approach and avoidance leads to systematic biases that translate to differences in performance. Specifically, we find that high sensitivity in the Behavioral Activation System (BAS) translates to valuation by feeling and insensitivity to scope in the domain of gains, while high sensitivity in the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) translates to valuation by feeling and insensitivity to scope in the domain of losses. The basis for these findings is discussed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying the Effects of Unjustified Confidence versus Overconfidence: Lessons Learned from Two Analytic Methods

One of the most common findings in behavioral decision research is that people have unrealistic beliefs about how much they know. However, demonstrating that misplaced confidence exists does not necessarily mean that there are costs to it. This paper contrasts two approaches toward answering whether misplaced confidence is good or bad, which we have labeled the overconfidence and unjustified confidence approach. We first consider conceptual and analytic issues distinguishing these approaches. Then, we provide findings from a set of simulations designed to determine when the approaches produce different conclusions across a range of possible confidence–knowledge–outcome relationships. Finally, we illustrate the main findings from the simulations with three empirical examples drawn from our own data. We conclude that the unjustified confidence approach is typically the preferred approach, both because it is appropriate for testing a larger set of psychological mechanisms as well as for methodological reasons. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.