A signal detection analysis of the rod and frame test

To help determine hut what Witkin’s Rod and Frame Test measures, the task was modified by presenting the luminous rod in one of two fixed positions, either vertical or not vertical, within a titled frame. S responded on a four-category scale representing his certainty that the rod was vertical Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated for each of 17 Ss and compared to traditional measures of titer field dependence-independence. The results showed that Witkin’s test is not contaminated to any great extent by response bias. However, the ROC analysis did reveal significant differences between field dependents and independents, not only in their sensitivity to verticality, but also in their- characteristic manner of responding.     

A test of size-scaling and relative-size hypotheses for the moon illusion

In two experiments participants reproduced the size of the moon in pictorial scenes under two conditions: when the scene element was normally oriented, producing a depth gradient like a floor, or when the scene element was inverted, producing a depth gradient like a ceiling. Target moons were located near to or far from the scene element. Consistent with size constancy scaling, the illusion reversed when the "floor" of a pictorial scene was inverted to represent a "ceiling." Relative size contrast predicted a reduction or increase in the illusion with no change in direction. The relation between pictorial and natural moon illusions is discussed.     

A direct test of the unequal-variance signal detection model of recognition memory

Analyses of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) almost invariably suggest that, on a recognition memory test, the standard deviation of memory strengths associated with the lures (σ_lure) is smaller than that of the targets (σ_target). Often, σ_lure/σ_target ≈ 0.80. However, that conclusion is based on a model that assumes that the memory strength distributions are Gaussian in form. In two experiments, we investigated this issue in a more direct way by asking subjects to simply rate the memory strengths of targets and lures using a 20-point or a 99-point strength scale. The results showed that the standard deviation of the ratings made to the targets (s _target) was, indeed, larger than the standard deviation of the ratings made to the lures (s _lure). Moreover, across subjects, the ratios _lure/s _target correlated highly with the estimate of σ_lure/σtarget obtained from ROC analysis, and both estimates were, on average, approximately equal to 0.80.     

Extensions of a versatile randomization test for assessing single-case intervention effects

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the statistical properties of two extensions of the Levin-Wampold (1999) single-case simultaneous start-point model's comparative effectiveness randomization test. The two extensions were (a) adapting the test to situations where there are more than two different intervention conditions and (b) examining the test's performance in classroom-based intervention situations, where the number of time periods (and associated outcome observations) is much smaller than in the contexts for which the test was originally developed. Various Monte Carlo sampling situations were investigated, including from one to five participant blocks per condition and differing numbers of time periods, potential intervention start points, degrees of within-phase autocorrelation, and effect sizes. For all situations, it was found that the Type I error probability of the randomization test was maintained at an acceptable level. With a few notable exceptions, respectable power was observed only in situations where the numbers of observations and potential intervention start points were relatively large, effect sizes were large, and the degree of within-phase autocorrelation was relatively low. It was concluded that the comparative effectiveness randomization test, with its desirable internal validity and statistical-conclusion validity features, is a versatile analytic tool that can be incorporated into a variety of single-case school psychology intervention research situations.     

An experimental test of three choice shift hypotheses*

The present experiment pitted three choice shift hypotheses against each other in an attempt to eliminate one or more of the hypotheses and find support for those remaining. Ss responded three times to the 12 CDQ items, once as a pretest and twice following presentation of homogeneous sets of three arguments which advocated either a risky or a cautious position. The risk-as-value, relevant arguments, and conformity/attitude change hypotheses generated three separate predictions for the Ss' responses. Results mirrored the prediction of the relevant arguments hypothesis: New information, whether contained in cautious or risky arguments, caused a shift toward the type of argument presented. The risk-as-value and the conformity/attitude change hypotheses could not explain the present data.     

The conjunction fallacy: A test of averaging hypotheses

The conjunction fallacy, in which individuals report that the conjunction of two events is more rather than less likely to occur than one of the events alone, is a robust phenomenon. We assessed the possibility that an analysis in terms of functional measurement methodology might be consistent with occurrence of the fallacy. A 3 × 3 design in which we varied the judged likelihood of the two components constituting the conjunction permitted us to assess the possibility that subjects judge the likelihood of conjunctions by averaging the likelihood of their component parts. The results were consistent with this possibility, and this interpretation was supported by analysis of the results in terms of functional measurement methodology.     

The revelation effect: A meta-analytic test of hypotheses

Judgments can depend on the activity directly preceding them. An example is the revelation effect whereby participants are more likely to claim that a stimulus is familiar after a preceding task, such as solving an anagram, than without a preceding task. We test conflicting predictions of four revelation-effect hypotheses in a meta-analysis of 26 years of revelation-effect research. The hypotheses’ predictions refer to three subject areas: (1) the basis of judgments that are subject to the revelation effect (recollection vs. familiarity vs. fluency), (2) the degree of similarity between the task and test item, and (3) the difficulty of the preceding task. We use a hierarchical multivariate meta-analysis to account for dependent effect sizes and variance in experimental procedures. We test the revelation-effect hypotheses with a model selection procedure, where each model corresponds to a prediction of a revelation-effect hypothesis. We further quantify the amount of evidence for one model compared to another with Bayes factors. The results of this analysis suggest that none of the extant revelation-effect hypotheses can fully account for the data. The general vagueness of revelation-effect hypotheses and the scarcity of data were the major limiting factors in our analyses, emphasizing the need for formalized theories and further research into the puzzling revelation effect.     

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation for the one-parameter logistic model

Two algorithms are described for marginal maximum likelihood estimation for the one-parameter logistic model. The more efficient of the two algorithms is extended to estimation for the linear logistic model. Numerical examples of both procedures are presented. Portions of this research were presented at the meeting of the Psychometric Society in Chapel Hill, N.C. in May, 1981. Thanks to R. Darrell Bock, Gerhard Fischer, and Paul Holland for helpful comments in the course of this research.     

A significance test for multisample sphericity

The paper obtains a maximum likelihood criterion test for multisample sphericity. The test contains Mauchly's sphericity test as a special case.I would like to thank Professor R. E. Bargmann for his most valuable help.     

A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

Laughter: an empirical test of some reversal theory hypotheses

Hypotheses derived from reversal theory on state-specific responses to humorous material were tested by recruitment of 10 telic (serious minded) and 10 paratelic (playful) state-dominant individuals from a larger sample of university students completing the Telic Dominance Scale. They were individually exposed to a comedy programme displayed on television in a psychophysiological laboratory. Polygraph record of respiration provided operational measurement of laughter. Subjects ratings were derived for felt and preferred level of arousal and for telidparatelic state in the laboratory situation. Results confirmed (1) that humorous material tends to induce the paratelic state, even in telic state-dominant individuals, and (2) that frequency of laughter in the paratelic state is positively correlated with degree of felt arousal and with arousal preference, thus indicating a linear , rather than ditonic, relation of hedonic tone to felt arousal in this state.     

Gender and reward distributions: A test of two hypotheses

This study was designed as a test of two competing explanations of gender differences in distributive justice: (a) the equity-equality hypothesis, which states that males endorse equitable distributions more than females and females endorse equal distributions more than males; and (b) the exploitation-accommodation hypothesis, which states that the sexes vary their norm endorsement according to self-favoring (males) or other-favoring (females) distribution outcomes. Preadolescent and college-aged subjects rated the fairness of reward distributions of vignette characters who had contributed either more or less than a co-worker in a task, and had subsequently divided the rewards either equitably or equally. The data provided no support for the equity-equality hypothesis, but did support the exploitation-accommodation hypothesis. Specifically, females rated equitable distributions of inferior workers as more fair than males did. Thus, the popular conclusion that males have a stronger commitment to equity than females must be rejected.     

Serial learning in rats: A test of three hypotheses

Findings obtained by providing rats with a single fixed series of events, A-B-C-…, often are equally compatible with three alternative serial learning interpretations: that the signal for items is (A) their position in the series (position view), (B) the prior item of the series (chaining view), and (C) one, two, or more prior items of the series (sequential view). By employing a novel procedure of supplying rats with two different series, rather than a single series, it was possible to choose between the three alternatives. Employing 10 and 0, 0.045 g, Noyes pellets as items, rats in both runway experiments reported here received a three trial series, either a 10-0-10 series or a 0-0-10 series. In Experiment 1, the other series was a single 0 pellet trial (along with 10-0-10) or a single 10 pellet trial (along with 0-0-10). In Experiment 2, the other series was either 0-0 (along with 10-0-10) or 10-0 (along with 0-0-10). Considering both experiments, findings were consistent with the sequential view but not with either the position view or the chaining view. The possibility was suggested that, under some other experimental conditions, particularly those not employing reward events as items, greater control over discriminative responding might be exercised by position cues than by item cues.