A Bayesian analysis of finite mixtures in the LISREL model

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimating finite mixtures of the LISREL model. The basic idea in our analysis is to augment the observed data of the manifest variables with the latent variables and the allocation variables. The Gibbs sampler is implemented to obtain the Bayesian solution. Other associated statistical inferences, such as the direct estimation of the latent variables, establishment of a goodness-of-fit assessment for a posited model, Bayesian classification, residual and outlier analyses, are discussed. The methodology is illustrated with a simulation study and a real example.This research was supported by a Hong Kong UGC Earmarked grant CUHK 4026/97H. The authors are indebted to the Editor, the Associate Editor, and three anonymous reviewers for constructive comments in improving the paper, and also to ICPSR and the relevant funding agency for allowing the use of the data. The assistance of Michael K.H. Leung and Esther L.S. Tam is gratefully acknowledged.     

Fitting multivariage normal finite mixtures subject to structural equation modeling

This paper is about fitting multivariate normal mixture distributions subject to structural equation modeling. The general model comprises common factor and structural regression models. The introduction of covariance and mean structure models reduces the number of parameters to be estimated in fitting the mixture and enables one to investigate a variety of substantive hypotheses concerning the differences between the components in the mixture. Within the general model, individual parameters can be subjected to equality, nonlinear and simple bounds constraints. Confidence intervals are based on the inverse of the Hessian and on the likelihood profile. Several illustrations are given and results of a simulation study concerning the confidence intervals are reported.     

The mental representation of causal conditional reasoning: mental models or causal models

In this paper, two experiments are reported investigating the nature of the cognitive representations underlying causal conditional reasoning performance. The predictions of causal and logical interpretations of the conditional diverge sharply when inferences involving pairs of conditionals—such as if P₁then Q and if P₂then Q—are considered. From a causal perspective, the causal direction of these conditionals is critical: are the P_icauses of Q; or symptoms caused byQ. The rich variety of inference patterns can naturally be modelled by Bayesian networks. A pair of causal conditionals where Q is an effect corresponds to a “collider” structure where the two causes (P_i) converge on a common effect. In contrast, a pair of causal conditionals where Q is a cause corresponds to a network where two effects (P_i) diverge from a common cause. Very different predictions are made by fully explicit or initial mental models interpretations. These predictions were tested in two experiments, each of which yielded data most consistent with causal model theory, rather than with mental models.     

Correspondence analysis and association models constrained by a conditional independence graph

The manner in which the conditional independence graph of a multiway contingency table effects the fitting and interpretation of the Goodman association model (RC) and of correspondence analysis (CA) is considered.Estimation of the row and column scores is presented in this context by developing a unified framework that includes both models. Incorporation of the conditional independence constraints inherent in the graph may lead to equal or additive scores for the corresponding marginal tables, depending on the topology of the graph. An example of doubly additive scores in the analysis of a Burt subtable is given.Thanks are due to anonymous referees who substantially improved the original draft of this paper.     

On the loss of information in conditional maximum likelihood estimation of item parameters

In item response models of the Rasch type (Fischer & Molenaar, 1995), item parameters are often estimated by the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method. This paper addresses the loss of information in CML estimation by using the information concept of F-information (Liang, 1983). This concept makes it possible to specify the conditions for no loss of information and to define a quantification of information loss. For the dichotomous Rasch model, the derivations will be given in detail to show the use of the F-information concept for making comparisons for different estimation methods. It is shown that by using CML for item parameter estimation, some information is almost always lost. But compared to JML (joint maximum likelihood) as well as to MML (marginal maximum likelihood) the loss is very small. The reported efficiency in the use of information of CML to JML and to MML in several comparisons is always larger than 93%, and in tests with a length of 20 items or more, larger than 99%.     

Tail-measurability in monotone latent variable models

We consider latent variable models for an infinite sequence (or universe) of manifest (observable) variables that may be discrete, continuous or some combination of these. The main theorem is a general characterization by empirical conditions of when it is possible to construct latent variable models that satisfy unidimensionality, monotonicity, conditional independence, andtail-measurability. Tail-measurability means that the latent variable can be estimated consistently from the sequence of manifest variables even though an arbitrary finite subsequence has been removed. The characterizing,necessary and sufficient, conditions that the manifest variables must satisfy for these models are conditional association and vanishing conditional dependence (as one conditions upon successively more other manifest variables). Our main theorem considerably generalizes and sharpens earlier results of Ellis and van den Wollenberg (1993), Holland and Rosenbaum (1986), and Junker (1993). It is also related to the work of Stout (1990).The main theorem is preceded by many results for latent variable modelsin general—not necessarily unidimensional and monotone. They pertain to the uniqueness of latent variables and are connected with the conditional independence theorem of Suppes and Zanotti (1981). We discuss new definitions of the concepts of true-score and subpopulation, which generalize these notions from the stochastic subject, random sampling, and domain sampling formulations of latent variable models (e.g., Holland, 1990; Lord & Novick, 1968). These definitions do not require the a priori specification of a latent variable model.The authors made equivalent contributions to the results of this article. Ellis' research was supported by the Dutch Interuniversitary Graduate School of Psychometrics and Sociometrics. Junker's research was supported by ONR Grant N00014-87-K-0277, NIMH Grant MH15758, and a Carnegie Mellon University Faculty Development Grant. In addition Junker would like to acknowledge the hospitality of the Nijmegen Institute for Cognition and Information during his visit to the University of Nijmegen in August 5–10, 1993.     

Bayesian inference for finite mixtures of generalized linear models with random effects

We present an hierarchical Bayes approach to modeling parameter heterogeneity in generalized linear models. The model assumes that there are relevant subpopulations and that within each subpopulation the individual-level regression coefficients have a multivariate normal distribution. However, class membership is not known a priori, so the heterogeneity in the regression coefficients becomes a finite mixture of normal distributions. This approach combines the flexibility of semiparametric, latent class models that assume common parameters for each sub-population and the parsimony of random effects models that assume normal distributions for the regression parameters. The number of subpopulations is selected to maximize the posterior probability of the model being true. Simulations are presented which document the performance of the methodology for synthetic data with known heterogeneity and number of sub-populations. An application is presented concerning preferences for various aspects of personal computers.     

Repeated acquisition of conditional discriminations

A new technique was developed to study the repeated acquisition of conditional discriminations. Using a discrete trial procedure, pigeons were required to learn during each session a different two-member chain of conditional discriminations. Key color and geometric forms were used as stimuli. After the pigeons had reached a steady state of relearning (40 to 60 sessions), the technique was used to investigate variables that have previously been shown to affect the repeated acquisition of response sequences. Various (0 to 90 seconds) durations of timeout for errors were investigated in Experiment I. The stimulus change associated with a timeout, rather than its duration, was found to be the critical variable in acquisition of the discrimination. Extended training on a single chain was found to reduce total errors across sessions in Experiment II. Extended training (three sessions) did not, however, change the pattern of within-session error reduction. In some cases, extended training facilitated acquisition of a partially reversed discrimination. In Experiment III, color rather than chain position was found to control behavior, for three of the four birds, as the second stimulus dimension in the conditional situation. The results of these experiments replicate and extend previous findings concerning some of the variables that affect the repeated acquisition of response sequences.     

Spatial,non-spatial and hybrid models for scaling

In this paper, hierarchical and non-hierarchical tree structures are proposed as models of similarity data. Trees are viewed as intermediate between multidimensional scaling and simple clustering. Procedures are discussed for fitting both types of trees to data. The concept of multiple tree structures shows great promise for analyzing more complex data. Hybrid models in which multiple trees and other discrete structures are combined with continuous dimensions are discussed. Examples of the use of multiple tree structures and hybrid models are given. Extensions to the analysis of individual differences are suggested.1976 Psychometric Society Presidential Address.While people too numerous to list here have contributed ideas, inspiration, and other help, I particularly wish to acknowledge the contributions of Sandra Pruzansky, without whom this paper could not have been written. I would also like to acknowledge the past contributions of my long-time colleague Jih-Jie Chang, without whose help I probably would not have beenasked to write it.     

Equivalent models in covariance structure analysis

Defining equivalent models as those that reproduce the same set of covariance matrices, necessary and sufficient conditions are stated for the local equivalence of two expanded identified modelsM ₁ andM ₂ when fitting the more restricted modelM ₀. Assuming several regularity conditions, the rank deficiency of the Jacobian matrix, composed of derivatives of the covariance elements with respect to the union of the free parameters ofM ₁ andM ₂ (which characterizes modelM ₁₂), is a necessary and sufficient condition for the local equivalence ofM ₁ andM ₂. This condition is satisfied, in practice, when the analysis dealing with the fitting ofM ₀, predicts that the decreases in the chi-square goodness-of-fit statistic for the fitting ofM ₁ orM ₂, orM ₁₂ are all equal for any set of sample data, except on differences due to rounding errors.This research was supported by the Foundation of Social-Cultural Sciences which is subsidized by the Dutch Scientific Organization (N.W.O.) under project number 500-278-003. The author wishes to thank Anne Boomsma, Ivo Molenaar, Albert Satorra, and Tom Snijders for their stimulating and crucial comments during the research, and the Editor, Paul Bekker, Henk Broer, and anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions.     

条件推理与概率判断

选取6个具体内容的条件命题和1个纯形式的条件命题作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,深入探讨了条件推理的认知加工机制。结果发现,大学生被试对四种推理形式的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率值成正比,条件推理似乎是一种基于概率判断的直觉而高效的认知加工过程,进一步证实了Oaksford（2000）以及Evans（2003）等人的观点。     

The online processing of only if and even if conditional statements: Implications for mental models

A sentential connective like only if or even if merges two simple propositions into a complex statement. This study used a visual world paradigm experiment to explore how this merging process proceeds online. We first presented participants with a short animation, illustrating different simple propositions that are possible to be merged by the sentential connectives. We then auditorily played an only if or an even if statement and recorded participants' eye movements on the concurrent test image. We observed that hearing the sentential connective results in more fixations on the tokens of the appropriate propositions that are eligible to be merged by the sentential connective. Each sentential connective elicited anticipatory effect suggests that once they heard the sentential connective, participants knew which propositions could be merged. We then discussed the implications of our results to the mental model theory of conditionals and the experimental studies reported in literature.     

Signal-detection analyses of conditional discrimination and delayed matching-to-sample performance

Quantitative analyses of stimulus control and reinforcer control in conditional discriminations and delayed matching-to-sample procedures often encounter a problem; it is not clear how to analyze data when subjects have not made errors. The present article examines two common methods for overcoming this problem. Monte Carlo simulations of performance demonstrated that both methods introduced systematic deviations into the results, and that there were genuine risks of drawing misleading conclusions concerning behavioral models of signal detection and animal short-term memory.     

Errorless learning of a conditional temporal discrimination

In the present study we extended errorless learning to a conditional temporal discrimination. Pigeons' responses to a left-red key after a 2-s sample and to a right-green key after a 10-s sample were reinforced. There were two groups: One learned the discrimination through trial and error and the other through an errorless learning procedure. Then, both groups were presented with three types of tests. First, they were exposed to intermediate durations between 2 s and 10 s, and given a choice between both keys (stimulus generalization test). Second, a delay from 1 s to 16 s was included between the offset of the sample and the onset of the choice keys (delay test). Finally, pigeons learned a new discrimination in which the stimuli were switched (reversal test). Results showed that pigeons from the Errorless group made significantly fewer errors than those in the Trial-and-Error group. Both groups performed similarly during the stimulus generalization test and the reversal test, but results of the delay test suggested that, on long stimulus trials, responding in the errorless training group was less disrupted by delays.     

On the failure and facilitation of conditional discrimination.

Pigeons acquired a conditional discrimination in an autoshaping procedure in which certain stimulus combinations (form plus color) were followed by food, whereas others were not followed by food. Although the discrimination normally was acquired quickly, it was completely prevented when the color elements of the stimulus compounds were presented during the intertrial intervals preceding the trials in which both stimulus elements were available. This failure of discrimination was then prevented by having the colors serve as houselights rather than being localized on the response key and by pretraining procedures in which the colors were utilized in simpler discriminations. The results suggest that stimulus salience plays a critical role in determining whether conditional discriminations will be acquired, as the effects of all of the different operations could be understood in terms of increasing or decreasing the salience of the color elements, above or below some threshold value.     

An analysis of instructor- and tablet-presented conditional discriminations: Fidelity and rapidity

Matching-to-sample arrangements are commonly used to teach conditional discriminations. In these arrangements, instructors must systematically arrange instruction to ensure that a learner's response comes under the intended sources of stimulus control. Given the multitude of instructional considerations, the instructors' procedural fidelity has been a significant concern. Recently, LeBlanc et al. found that brief training and access to enhanced data sheets produced high levels of fidelity with experienced service providers. The current study extended LeBlanc et al. by examining the effects of a similar training on the fidelity and instructional pacing by participants with and without previous experience. The participants' performance was also compared when using a flashcard or binder (i.e., printed) arrays and relative to a tablet-delivered instructional program. High levels of fidelity were observed following training, although pacing was slow. Slight differences in performance were observed across comparison arrays; nevertheless, the tablet-based program outperformed instructors.     

Psychometric Modeling of response speed and accuracy with mixed and conditional regression

Human performance in cognitive testing and experimental psychology is expressed in terms of response speed and accuracy. Data analysis is often limited to either speed or accuracy, and/or to crude summary measures like mean response time (RT) or the percentage correct responses. This paper proposes the use of mixed regression for the psychometric modeling of response speed and accuracy in testing and experiments. Mixed logistic regression of response accuracy extends logistic item response theory modeling to multidimensional models with covariates and interactions. Mixed linear regression of response time extends mixed ANOVA to unbalanced designs with covariates and heterogeneity of variance. Related to mixed regression is conditional regression, which requires no normality assumption, but is limited to unidimensional models. Mixed and conditional methods are both applied to an experimental study of mental rotation. Univariate and bivariate analyzes show how within-subject correlation between response and RT can be distinguished from between-subject correlation, and how latent traits can be detected, given careful item design or content analysis. It is concluded that both response and RT must be recorded in cognitive testing, and that mixed regression is a versatile method for analyzing test data.I am grateful to Rogier Donders for putting his data at my disposal.