Characterization and Prediction of Sexual and Nonsexual Recidivism Among Adjudicated Juvenile Sex Offenders

Estimating the risk of sexual recidivism for a juvenile sex offender is essential in order to protect public safety by identifying and evaluating high risk adolescents and to ensure the rights and welfare of juvenile offenders who will not likely reoffend. Empirically validated risk assessment methods are needed to aid in the classification and treatment of juvenile sex offenders. The present study utilized a dataset collected by Maricopa County, AZ, and aggregated by the National Juvenile Court Data Archive. The purpose of the study was to evaluate and characterize risk factors for juveniles who have been charged with a sexual offense in order to determine the predictive utility of these factors for subsequent offending, as well as offense trajectory, and to evaluate risk factors for nonsexual offenders who have committed crimes of various severities. The results of the present study show the strongest individual predictors of sexual recidivism to be prior nonsexual offending, prior sexual offending, hands‐off offending, offending against a child, younger school grade/age at time of initial offense, Asian or Hispanic ethnicity, and not attending school. A preliminary screening measure was developed from the seven positive risk factors, and ROC analysis produced an AUC indicating moderate predictive utility in discriminating between juvenile sex offenders who would sexually reoffend and those who would not. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parent-child relations in offenders who commit violent sexual crimes against children

One hundred eighty-one men were compared on parent–child relations, using the Clarke Parent–Child Relations Questionnaire. The sample included 66 heterosexual pedophiles, 29 homosexual pedophiles, 36 incest offenders and 50 controls. The offender groups were further divided into those who used force (20%) versus those who did not; into those sexually victimized as children themselves (53.2%) versus those not victimized; and into those physically abused as children (47.5%) versus those not abused. Results showed that the offender groups had more disturbances than controls in father–son relations, contrary to earlier findings showing disturbances in mother–son relations among individuals who interact sexually with minors. The offenders who used force in their offenses differed only in being more aggressive to their fathers as children, but otherwise did not differ from offenders who did not use force in their offenses. Offenders both sexually and physically abused as children showed more disturbances in father relationships than offenders who were not abused during their childhoods. Disturbed parent-child relations undoubtedly leave residual difficulties in sex offenders in later life, but in the present sample, they did not play the expected critical role in explaining the use of force by perpetrators who coerce children into sex.     

Application of Megan's law to juveniles

This article examines (a) the history of registration and notification statutes for sex offenders and the concerns and legal challenges they have faced, (b) psychology's limited knowledge about normal versus abnormal sexual development, and (c) research that suggests rates of recidivism for sexual offenses may be lower for juveniles than for adults who have been discovered and received punishment and/or treatment. Although the behaviors of juvenile and adult sex offenders may appear similar, the underlying mechanisms triggering the behaviors may be different or juveniles' patterns of behaviors may be less established, accounting for some of the observed differences in recidivism rates. Although the authors recognize the critical objective of protecting victims and potential victims, this article focuses on intervention efforts with juvenile sex offenders.     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years post-release. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism post-release and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature.     

Social learning,sexual and physical abuse,and adult crime

This research examines the relationship between childhood physical and sexual abuse and the types of crimes committed by male adult offenders. We use the method of discriminant prediction to determine whether independent and dependent variables are related in ways that theories predict. Our analyses of data from the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities suggest that offenders model specific behaviors to which they have been exposed. Male offenders who were sexually abused as a child are more likely to commit sexual offenses, particularly sexual offenses against children, than nonsexual offenses. Offenders who were physically abused are more likely to engage in violent offenses than nonviolent offenses. Further analyses show that sexual offenders, and to a lesser extent violent offenders, are likely to specialize in those offenses. Our results are consistent with a social learning approach. They address a heretofore neglected issue: what exactly do children model when they are mistreated. Aggr. Behav. 35:489–501, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Jugendliche Sexualstraftäter: Spezialfälle der Prognoseerstellung?

This study compared a sample of 273 juvenile (aged 14 to under 18), 178 adolescent (aged 18 to under 21) and 273 adult (older than 20 years) male sex offenders modus operandi (or MO, the way in which they committed their offenses), frequency of recidivism and predicted recidivism via the static-99. In terms of the frequencies of the MO aspects we found that juveniles and adolescents differed significantly from adult sexual offenders. However, concerning the frequency of sexual violent behaviors, adolescents committed more severe offenses in contrast to the two other groups. The comparison of recidivism rates indicated that adolescent sexual offenders were significantly less likely to commit a new sexual offense, but were considerably more likely to commit a non-sexual violent offense compared to adult sexual offenders. For juvenile offenders, only few static-99 variables were predictive of future recidivism in comparison to the other groups, suggesting that the static-99 may only have a restricted utility in juvenile offenders. Further, juvenile offenders risk levels were found to fall primarily within the medium risk group making individual differentiation of potential risk difficult. It is suggested that additional predictors, which help to differentiate young sexual offenders must be investigated.     

Counseling Sexually Abused Children

Cases of sexual abuse of children are being reported in increasing numbers. A large percentage of child sexual abuse occurs in or around the home. Family members, family friends, or known adults are most often the offenders. There are certain family factors likely to be operating in a child's sexual abuse and these factors must be explored with all family members. Sexual abuse can have many disturbing consequences for the child and the family. A counseling approach should be to help an abused child and the offender feel that they are still worthwhile individuals. Underlying issues in the family should also be explored. Paula Slager-Jorné is director of training at the Children's Center in Detroit, Michigan.     

Die sexuelle Entwicklung Jugendlicher und Heranwachsender im Kontext von Sexualstraftaten und Körperverletzungsdelikten

To find out possible differences concerning the sexual development of juveniles who had committed either sexual or assaultive offenses. In order to reduce confounding variables a defined group of perpetrators was studied during ongoing criminal proceedings: 107 German single perpetrators, of average intelligence, between 14 and 21 years old, committing hands-on offenses, were investigated in respect to their physical-sexual development (i.e. maldescensus testis, orchitis and others), their socio-sexual development (i.e. attitude to masturbation, to sexuality within the family and others), and their psycho-sexual development (i.e. homo- or heterosexual experiences by mutual agreement like petting or sexual intercourse). 38 subjects had sexually forced female juveniles or women, 36 subjects had sexually abused children of both sexes, 33 subjects had committed assaultive offences towards male juveniles or men (control group). No differences were found between the groups concerning their physical-sexual development. The socio-sexual development distinguished between the sexual offender groups and the control group. The outcome concerning the psycho-sexual development was specific for every single offender group. Many of the juveniles who had committed sexual offences were acting like this already before the age of 14 (limit of criminal responsibility in Germany). This was so as well for some few subjects of the control group. After the age of 14 juveniles of the sex offender groups - in contrast to the control group - committed sexual offences which were not reported. Considering further characteristics of the biography and the results of psychometric instruments of the 107 subjects investigated, this study describes early markers of the development of deviant sexual fantasies in juvenile sex offenders.     

Does sexual offender treatment work? A systematic review of outcome evaluations

The article reports a systematic review of controlled outcome evaluations of psychosocial and organic sexual offender treatment. A comprehensive search of the literature in five languages revealed 80 independent comparisons between treated and untreated groups of sexual offenders ( N = 22,181). The majority of studies confirmed a positive treatment effect. Overall, 11.1% of treated offenders and 17.5% of controls showed sexual recidivism (37% difference). Findings for violent and general recidivism were similar. Studies on surgical castration showed the strongest effect; however, this was confounded with methodological and offender characteristics. Hormonal medication, cognitive-behavioural, and behavioural approaches also revealed a positive effect. Non-behavioural treatments did not show a significant impact. Other moderators such as small sample size, authors' affiliation with the program, program completion versus dropout, or type of outcome measure had a significant impact. Methodological study characteristics explained the largest proportion of effect size variance. Overall, findings are promising but more differentiated evaluations of high quality are needed.     

Sexually Violent Predators: Toward Reasonable Estimates of Recidivism Base Rates

The sexual recidivism rate of sex offenders is a controversial issue. Perhaps as controversial is the sexual recidivism rate of the select group of sex offenders who are examined pursuant to sexually violent predator (SVP) statutes. At present, reliable estimates of SVP recidivism are unavailable. We propose that reasonable estimates of SVP recidivism can be reached by considering three available pieces of data: (i) a likely recidivism rate of the general population of sex offenders; (ii) procedures typically followed by jurisdictions that civilly commit sex offenders; and (iii) classification accuracy of procedures. Although sexual recidivism rates vary across jurisdictions, the results of our analyses suggest sex offenders referred for examination pursuant to SVP statutes recidivate at substantially higher rates than typical sex offenders. Our results further suggest that sex offenders recommended for commitment as SVPs recidivate at even greater rates than SVP respondents who are not recommended for commitment. We discuss practice and policy implications of these findings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deviant sexual arousal,offense history,and demographic variables as predictors of reoffense among child molesters

The present study examined selected demographic and offense history variables and deviant sexual arousal as predictors of reoffense in a group of 35 untreated child molesters. The measure of deviant sexual arousal was based on laboratory measures of sexual preference using penile plethysmography. Factor analysis of the predictor variables yielded three factors. The measure of deviant arousal, the amount of force used in the offense, whether or not the offender had intercourse with the child victim, and the number of previous victims loaded on the first factor, called Sexual Deviance. IQ and socioeconomic status loaded on the second factor, called Social Status. Age of the offender and age of the victim loaded on the third factor, called Offender Age. Entering the sets of three factor scores as predictors in a multiple correlation, over 20% of the variance in recidivism was explained, but the factor Sexual Deviance was the only significant predictor of recidivism (p < .02). Almost 30% of the variance in number of reoffenses was explained, and both Sexual Deviance (p < .01) and Social Status (p < .10) were significant predictors. A cluster analysis identified a group of offenders characterized by low SES and low IQ who also showed higher sexual deviance scores and a high rate of reoffense.     

A longitudinal examination of sex offender recidivism prior to and following the implementation of SORN

The goals of the present study were to examine the recidivism rates of two matched samples of sexual offenders, those released prior to and after sex offender registration and notification (SORN) in New Jersey. The pre-SORN group (1990-1994) included 247 offenders, while the post-SORN group (1996-2000) included 248 offenders. The longitudinal analysis demonstrated that for sex offenders released from prison both prior to and after implementation of SORN, there are clearly two distinguishable groups of sex offenders in relation to patterns of recidivism. More than three-quarters of sex offenders were identified as at low risk of recidivism, with low rates of repeat criminal offenses. By contrast, the high-risk group of offenders was not only more likely to commit future criminal offenses, including sex offenses, but they were also more likely to commit significantly more offenses and to do so fairly quickly following release. Analyses also include an examination of the influence of demographics, substance abuse and mental health issues, treatment history, sex offense incident characteristics, and criminal history on recidivism. Finally, SORN status was not a significant predictor of sex or general recidivism. The study limitations and policy implications are discussed.     

Attitudes and Decisions about Sexual Offenders: A Comparison of Laypersons and Professionals

The current study examines the inherent biases about sexual offending held by 123 laypersons and 120 professionals (i.e. probation officers and therapists). In order to determine the extent of these biases, a series of brief newspaper articles were constructed to depict cases of sexual offenders. Each article comprised several combinations of key variables, including offender type, level of admission, and the presence of alcohol. Participants read a series of three fabricated articles and then completed a questionnaire regarding attitudes about the various offenders. The results indicate important differences between the lay and professional samples. Laypersons deemed sex offenders more favourably in terms of character, accountability, and risk for sexual recidivism. However, both groups showed some similar perceptions about sexual offending. Specifically, both groups evaluated child molesters more negatively than exhibitionists and in some cases, rapists. These findings highlight the need for continuing education for professionals in order to attenuate the effects of prejudicial attitudes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Relationship between Sex Offender Height and Pedophilic Interest

The current study examined the relationship between offender height and pedophilic interest (as measured by having a victim under 13 years old) in a sample of 22,228 registered sex offenders in the United States. Results revealed that offenders with victims age 12 and under were, on average, nearly one-quarter inch shorter than offenders of adults, and .18 inches shorter than those with minor teen victims. Implications for future research about the biological etiology of child sexual abuse perpetration are discussed, including the role of adverse childhood experiences in the neurodevelopment of offenders.     

Zur Altersabh?ngigkeit von Risikovariablen bei Sexualdelinquenz

Based on a sample of 612 male sex offenders, this study examined the latent dimensions of actuarial risk variables, their age-related development and their age-related relevance for the prediction of sexual recidivism within a follow-up period of 5 years. According to the work of Roberts et al. [25] 8 items from Static-99 and Risk Matrix 2000 were examined for their underlying factor structure. The result was a 3-factor solution, which accounted for 63% of the variance and largely replicated the previous findings by Roberts et al. [25]. Following these authors the three scales sexual deviance, dissociality and detachment were calculated from the risk variables and examined in detail. The analysis revealed an increase in sexually deviant personality traits with advancing age of the offenders at the beginning of the follow-up period. No age-related changes were observed in dissocial characteristics. Concerning the detachment scale a negative correlation with the offenders age was apparent. All three risk scales proved to be prognostically relevant in the total sample. On closer examination, however, only sexual deviance showed prognostic relevance in all age groups. In contrast, dissociality was only relevant for the prediction of sexual recidivism in the older offender groups and detachment only in the younger offender groups.     

Juvenile sex offenders: similar to, or different from, other incarcerated delinquent offenders?

The purpose of the present study was to compare incarcerated juvenile sex offenders to incarcerated youth who committed confrontational but nonsex offenses, and to those youth who committed only nonconfrontational, nonsex offenses. Furthermore, comparisons were made between two subtypes of sex offenders: those youth convicted for rape or sodomy vs those convicted for child molestation. Eighty-three male juvenile delinquents served as participants. Teachers within the correctional facility completed an instrument which allowed the examination of the two areas of interest: externalizing problems and internalizing problems. The results indicated that sex offenders generally, and particularly those who had committed only sex offenses, were perceived as having fewer externalizing and internalizing problems. No differences emerged between the two subtypes of sex offenders. Implications, as well as limitations, of the findings are discussed.     

Recidivism base rates,predictions of sex offender recidivism,and the “sexual predator” commitment laws

Predictions of future sexual offending have been mandated by various “Sexual Predator” commitment laws, despite historical arguments that clinicians are frequently inaccurate and over-predict violence. The basis for those arguments has been the perspective that sexual recidivism is a relatively rare event. Research is reviewed, however, with the finding that sexual recidivism for certain offenders is a rather common occurrence when the definition of recidivism is in keeping with the sex offender commitment laws. This finding is used to demonstrate that under-, rather than over-prediction of the designated violence is necessarily today's practice. Practical and ethical implications are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Will They Do It Again? Predicting Sex-Offense Recidivism

This article reviews the empirical research on the prediction of reoffending among sexual offenders. The major predictors of sexual-offense recidivism are factors related to sexual deviance (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, previous sex crimes) and, to a lesser extent, criminal lifestyle (e.g., antisocial personality disorder, total number of prior offenses). The factors that predict general recidivism among sex offenders are the same as the factors that predict general recidivism among nonsexual criminals (e.g., juvenile delinquency, prior violent offenses). Given that there are special predictors of sexual recidivism, evaluators should consider separately the risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.