WoMMBAT: A user interface for hierarchical Bayesian estimation of working memory capacity

The change detection paradigm has become an important tool for researchers studying working memory. Change detection is especially useful for studying visual working memory, because recall paradigms are difficult to employ in the visual modality. Pashler (Perception & Psychophysics, 44, 369–378, 1988) and Cowan (Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 24, 87–114, 2001) suggested formulas for estimating working memory capacity from change detection data. Although these formulas have become widely used, Morey (Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 55, 8–24, 2011) showed that the formulas suffer from a number of issues, including inefficient use of information, bias, volatility, uninterpretable parameter estimates, and violation of ANOVA assumptions. Morey presented a hierarchical Bayesian extension of Pashler’s and Cowan’s basic models that mitigates these issues. Here, we present WoMMBAT (Working Memory Modeling using Bayesian Analysis Techniques) software for fitting Morey’s model to data. WoMMBAT has a graphical user interface, is freely available, and is cross-platform, running on Windows, Linux, and Mac operating systems.     

Ockham Efficiency Theorem for Stochastic Empirical Methods

Ockham’s razor is the principle that, all other things being equal, scientists ought to prefer simpler theories. In recent years, philosophers have argued that simpler theories make better predictions, possess theoretical virtues like explanatory power, and have other pragmatic virtues like computational tractability. However, such arguments fail to explain how and why a preference for simplicity can help one find true theories in scientific inquiry, unless one already assumes that the truth is simple. One new solution to that problem is the Ockham efficiency theorem (Kelly 2002, Minds Mach 14:485–505, 2004, Philos Sci 74:561–573, 2007a, b, Theor Comp Sci 383:270–289, c, d; Kelly and Glymour 2004), which states that scientists who heed Ockham’s razor retract their opinions less often and sooner than do their non-Ockham competitors. The theorem neglects, however, to consider competitors following random (“mixed”) strategies and in many applications random strategies are known to achieve better worst-case loss than deterministic strategies. In this paper, we describe two ways to extend the result to a very general class of random, empirical strategies. The first extension concerns expected retractions, retraction times, and errors and the second extension concerns retractions in chance, times of retractions in chance, and chances of errors.     

What time travelers may be able to do

Kadri Vihvelin, in “What time travelers cannot do” (Philos Stud 81:315–330, 1996), argued that “no time traveler can kill the baby who in fact is her younger self”, because (V1) “if someone would fail to do something, no matter how hard or how many times she tried, then she cannot do it”, and (V2) if a time traveler tried to kill her baby self, she would always fail. Theodore Sider (Philos Stud 110:115–138, 2002) criticized Vihvelin’s argument, and Ira Kiourti (Philos Stud 139:343–352, 2008) criticized both Vihvelin’s argument and Sider’s critique. I present a critique of Vihvelin’s argument different from both Sider’s and Kiourti’s critiques: I argue in a novel way that both V1 and V2 are false. Since Vihvelin’s argument might be understood as providing a challenge to the possibility of time travel, if my critique succeeds then time travel survives such a challenge unscathed.     

Engaging African Americans in Therapy: Integrating a Public Policy and Family Therapy Perspective

The field of marriage and family therapy faces a growing imperative to reach historically underserved populations. African Americans are a prime example of a minority group in the United States that continues to be underserved by the current mental health system. We integrate Andersen’s (1995, Journal of Health and Social behavior, 36, 1–10) public policy model of health service use with Fox et al. (1995, Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved, 6, 434–468) revision of the rural de facto mental health services model (Regier and Goldberg, 1978, Archives of General Psychiatry, 35, 685–693) to develop a more inclusive and culturally sensitive framework that captures salient factors influencing African Americans’ entry into and engagement in therapy. Recommendations for overcoming barriers and suggestions for future research are presented.     

A defense of contingent logical truths

A formula is a contingent logical truth when it is true in every model M but, for some model M, false at some world of M. We argue that there are such truths, given the logic of actuality. Our argument turns on defending Tarski’s definition of truth and logical truth, extended so as to apply to modal languages with an actuality operator. We argue that this extension is the philosophically proper account of validity. We counter recent arguments to the contrary presented in Hanson’s ‘Actuality, Necessity, and Logical Truth’ (Philos Stud 130:437–459, 2006).     

Special Topic: Filial Piety: The Root of Morality or the Source of Corruption?

In recent years, Liu Qingping 劉清平 has published a series of articles criticizing Confucian ethics in its modern context (see various articles by Liu), which has drawn the attention of many scholars. My friends and I have debated with him and his allies on this issue (See Guo 2002, Yang Haiwen 2002, Yang Zebo 2003, 2004a, 2004b, Ding 2003, 2005a, 2005b, Gong 2004, Guo and Gong 2004, and Wen 2005). Most of the important articles in the debate are now collected in a volume I edited, A Collection of Contentions about Confucian Ethics: Focusing on the Mutual Concealment among Family Members (Guo 2005 [ed.]). In the following, I attempt to respond to some of Liu’s criticisms of Confucian ethics.     

Yet Another Run around the Circle

In a recent article, D. A. Truncellito (2004, ‘Running in Circles about Begging the Question’, Argumentation 18, 325–329) argues that the discussion between Robinson (1971, ‘Begging the Question’, Analysis 31, 113–117), Sorensen (1996, ‘Unbeggable Questions’, Analysis 56, 51–55) and Teng (1997, ‘Sorensen on Begging the Question’, Analysis 57, 220–222) shows that we need to distinguish between logical fallacies, which are mistakes in the form of the argument, and rhetorical fallacies, which are mistakes committed by the arguer. While I basically agree with Truncellito’s line of thinking, I believe this distinction is not tenable and offer a different view. In addition, I will argue that the conclusion to draw from the abovementioned discussion is that validity is not a sufficient criterion of begging the question, and that we should be wary of the containment-metaphor of a deductive argument.     

The influence of anxiety on processing capacity for threat detection

In the present study, we explored the proposition that an individual’s capacity for threat detection is related to his or her trait anxiety. Using a redundant signals paradigm with concurrent measurements of reaction times and eye movements, participants indicated the presence or absence of an emotional target face (angry or happy) in displays containing no targets, one target, or two targets. We used estimates of the orderings on the hazard functions of the RT distributions as measures of processing capacity (Townsend & Ashby, 1978; Wenger & Gibson, Journal of Experimental Psychology. Human Perception and Performance, 30,708–719, 2004) to assess whether self-reported anxiety and the affective state of the face interacted with the level of perceptual load (i.e., the number of targets). Results indicated that anxiety was associated with fewer eye movements and increased processing capacity to detect multiple (vs. single) threatening faces. The data are consistent with anxiety influencing threat detection via a broadly tuned attentional mechanism (Eysenck, Derakshan, Santos, & Calvo, Emotion, 7,336–353, 2007).     

Nietzche’s Echo—A Dialogue with Thomas Altizer

Prophets provoke psychological unrest, especially when exposing accepted beliefs as profound deceptions. The biblical prophets exemplify such confrontation as do certain atheists ardently opposed to the images of God created by those seers. The German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche dramatically illustrates this type of counterforce to the Judeo-Christian tradition. His prophet Zarathustra is intended to be a model for the modern mind, one free of superstitions inflicted by antiquated religious dogma. Nietzsche’s credo “God is dead” served as a declaration for the nineteenth century. In the twentieth century, it became a theological diagnosis. As a “movement,” or “tenor,” the death of God or radical theology was spearheaded by Thomas Altizer, a well-published young professor center-staged during the turbulent 1960s. His work foreshadows a new strain of atheism currently represented by biologist Richard Dawkins (2006, The God delusion. New York: Houghton Mifflin), philosopher Daniel Dennett (2006, Breaking the spell. New York: Penquin), neuroscientist Sam Harris (2004, The end of faith. New York: W.W. Norton; 2008, Letter to a Christian nation. New York: Vintage), journalist Christopher Hitchens (2007, God is not great. New York: Twelve), and mathematician John Allen Paulos (Paulos 2008, Irreligion. New York: Hill & Wang). This twenty-first century crusade against belief in God is best understood as a psychodynamic ignited by Altizer’s Christian atheism. The present dialogue reflects that dynamic while the prologue and epilogue reveal evidence of Providence amidst claims of God’s demise in contemporary history.     

Entropy,semantic relatedness and proximity

Although word co-occurrences within a document have been demonstrated to be semantically useful, word interactions over a local range have been largely neglected by psychologists due to practical challenges. Shannon’s (Bell Systems Technical Journal, 27, 379–423, 623–665, 1948) conceptualization of information theory suggests that these interactions should be useful for understanding communication. Computational advances make an examination of local word–word interactions possible for a large text corpus. We used Brants and Franz’s (2006) dataset to generate conditional probabilities for 62,474 word pairs and entropy calculations for 9,917 words in Nelson, McEvoy, and Schreiber’s (Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers, 36, 402–407, 2004) free association norms. Semantic associativity correlated moderately with the probabilities and was stronger when the two words were not adjacent. The number of semantic associates for a word and the entropy of a word were also correlated. Finally, language entropy decreases from 11 bits for single words to 6 bits per word for four-word sequences. The probabilities and entropies discussed here are included in the supplemental materials for the article.     

The Rise of Voluntary Work in Higher Education and Corporate Social Responsibility in Business: Perspectives of Students and Graduate Employees

The Higher Education and Employment strand of the Learning for Life project focused on exploring some of the values of 169 students and graduate employees (Arthur et al. 2009a, b). A major theme suggested by participants, which arose naturally from the data and emerged from people’s accounts during in-depth interviews, involved the close relationship they felt existed between voluntary work and core values. It is this aspect of the project that is reported. There are several important and new findings that will be highlighted, including: voluntary work as a dimension for the development of character, personal development and a venue for developing people’s skills (which universities and employers often seek in their processes of recruitment); the types of voluntary work conducted by students and graduate employees; the role of ethnic minorities; people’s moral motivations behind engaging in voluntary work; the rise of the gap year volunteer; and the link between voluntary work at university and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the working world.     

Mother,Melancholia, and Art in Erik H. Erikson’s <Emphasis Type="Italic">Toys and Reasons</Emphasis>

In three earlier articles (2007a, 2007b, 2007c), I focused on the theme of the relationship of melancholia and the mother, and suggested that the melancholic self may experience humor, play, and dreams as restorative resources. In this article, I want to make a similar case, based on Erik H. Erikson’s Toys and Reasons (1977), for art (in this particular case, a painting of the Annunciation). I have made a similar case for the restorative role of art in articles on Leonard da Vinci’s Mona Lisa (Capps, Pastoral Psychology, 53, 107–137, 2004) and James McNeill Whistler’s painting of his mother (Capps, Pastoral Psychology, 2007d). In the present article, however, I focus on the special biographical circumstances in Erikson’s own development of a melancholy self and the painting he discusses in Toys and Reasons, thereby suggesting that individuals may find a particular work of art especially relevant to their own experience of melancholy. I conclude with Erikson’s testimonial at the memorial service of a colleague and friend who translated her own melancholy into her service to others.

Contraction in Interrogative Belief Revision

In the paper “On the role of the research agenda in epistemic change”, Olsson and Westlund have suggested that the notion of epistemic state employed in the standard framework of belief revision (Alchourrón et al. 1985; G?rdenfors 1988) should be extended to include a representation of the agent’s research agenda (Olsson and Westlund 2006). The resulting framework will here be referred to as interrogative belief revision. In this paper, I attempt to deal with the problem of how research agendas should change in contraction, a problem largely left open by Olsson and Westlund. Two desiderata of an appropriate solution are suggested: one is a principle of continuity, stating that changes in the research agenda should somehow reflect that certain long term research interests are kept fixed. The other desideratum, which is based on part of Olsson and Westlund’s motivation for adding research agendas to the epistemic states, is that we should be able to account for how contraction may serve to open up new, fruitful hypotheses for investigation. In order to achieve these desiderata, I base my solution on a revised version of Olsson and Westlund’s notion of epistemic state.     

The Invisible Foole

I review the classic skeptical challenges of Foole in Leviathan and the Lydian Shepherd in Republic against the prudential rationality of justice. Attempts to meet these challenges contribute to the reconciliation project (Kavka in Hobbesian moral and political theory, 1986) that tries to establish that morality is compatible with rational prudence. I present a new Invisible Foole challenge against the prudential rationality of justice. Like the Lydian Shepherd, the Invisible Foole can violate justice offensively (Kavka, Hobbesian moral and political theory, 1986; Law and Philosophy, 14:5–34, 1995) without harming his reputation for justice. And like the Foole, the Invisible Foole dismisses the possibility that being just preserves goods intrinsic to justice, and will be just only if he fears that others will punish his injustice by withholding the external goods like labor and material goods that he would otherwise receive for their performance in covenants. I argue that given a plausible folk-theorem interpretation, Hobbes’ response to the Foole’s challenge is inconclusive, and depends crucially upon common knowledge assumptions that may or may not obtain in actual societies. I present two analogous folk-theorem arguments in response to the Invisible Foole’s challenge, one using the idea that the Invisible Foole’s power of concealment might be transitory, and the other using the idea that members of society might stop performing in covenants with anyone, thus punishing the Invisible Foole indirectly, if the Invisible Foole commits sufficiently many injustices.     

Interrogative Belief Revision in Modal Logic

The well known AGM framework for belief revision has recently been extended to include a model of the research agenda of the agent, i.e. a set of questions to which the agent wishes to find answers (Olsson & Westlund in Erkenntnis, 65, 165–183, 2006). The resulting model has later come to be called interrogative belief revision. While belief revision has been studied extensively from the point of view of modal logic, so far interrogative belief revision has only been dealt with in the metalanguage approach in which AGM was originally presented. In this paper, I show how to model interrogative belief revision in a modal object language using a class of operators for questions. In particular, the solution I propose will be shown to capture the notion of K-truncation, a method for agenda update in the case of expansion constructed by Olsson & Westlund. Two case studies are conducted: first, an interrogative extension of Krister Segerberg’s system DDL, and then a similar extension of Giacomo Bonanno’s modal logic for belief revision. Sound and complete axioms will be provided for both of the resulting logics.     

The Genesis of Hi-Worlds: Towards a Principle-Based Possible World Semantics

A Leibnizian semantics proposed by Becker in 1952 for the modal operators has recently been reviewed in Copeland’s paper The Genesis of Possible World Semantics (Copeland in J Philos Logic 31:99–137, 2002), with a remark that “neither the binary relation nor the idea of proving completeness was present in Becker’s work”. In light of Frege’s celebrated Sense-Determines-Reference principle, we find, however, that it is Becker’s semantics, rather than Kripke’s semantics, that has captured the true spirit of Frege’s semantic program. Furthermore, for Kripke’s possible world semantics to fit in Frege’s framework of senses, worlds and referents, it will have to be thoroughly reformulated. By introducing the notion of a hi-world into the picture, we manage to keep the key ingredients of Becker’s semantics intact, while at the same time solve a fatal problem that used to shadow Becker’s original semantics—it had not been able to make sense of inhomogeneous modality. The resulting generalized Beckerian semantics provides, in effect, a Beckerian analysis of the Kripkean possible worlds. It reveals the subtle hierarchical internal structure of a Kripkean world that has not been discovered before.     

The Logic of Theory Assessment

This paper starts by indicating the analysis of Hempel’s conditions of adequacy for any relation of confirmation (Hempel, 1945) as presented in Huber (submitted). There I argue contra Carnap (1962, Section 87) that Hempel felt the need for two concepts of confirmation: one aiming at plausible theories and another aiming at informative theories. However, he also realized that these two concepts are conflicting, and he gave up the concept of confirmation aiming at informative theories. The main part of the paper consists in working out the claim that one can have Hempel’s cake and eat it too — in the sense that there is a logic of theory assessment that takes into account both of the two conflicting aspects of plausibility and informativeness. According to the semantics of this logic, α is an acceptable theory for evidence β if and only if α is both sufficiently plausible given β and sufficiently informative about β. This is spelt out in terms of ranking functions (Spohn, 1988) and shown to represent the syntactically specified notion of an assessment relation. The paper then compares these acceptability relations to explanatory and confirmatory consequence relations (Flach, 2000) as well as to nonmonotonic consequence relations (Kraus et al., 1990). It concludes by relating the plausibility-informativeness approach to Carnap’s positive relevance account, thereby shedding new light on Carnap’s analysis as well as solving another problem of confirmation theory. A precursor of this paper has appeared as “The Logic of Confirmation and Theory Assessment” in L. Běhounek & M. Bílková (eds.), The Logica Yearbook 2004, Prague: Filosofia, 2005, 161–176.     

The Elimination of Self-Reference: Generalized Yablo-Series and the Theory of Truth

Although it was traditionally thought that self-reference is a crucial ingredient of semantic paradoxes, Yablo (1993, 2004) showed that this was not so by displaying an infinite series of sentences none of which is self-referential but which, taken together, are paradoxical. Yablo’s paradox consists of a countable series of linearly ordered sentences s(0), s(1), s(2),... , where each s(i) says: For each k > i, s(k) is false (or equivalently: For no k > i is s(k) true). We generalize Yablo’s results along two dimensions. First, we study the behavior of generalized Yablo-series in which each sentence s(i) has the form: For Q k > i, s(k) is true, where Q is a generalized quantifier (e.g., no, every, infinitely many, etc). We show that under broad conditions all the sentences in the series must have the same truth value, and we derive a characterization of those values of Q for which the series is paradoxical. Second, we show that in the Strong Kleene trivalent logic Yablo’s results are a special case of a more general fact: under certain conditions, any semantic phenomenon that involves self-reference can be emulated without self-reference. Various translation procedures that eliminate self-reference from a non-quantificational language are defined and characterized. An Appendix sketches an extension to quantificational languages, as well as a new argument that Yablo’s paradox and the translations we offer do not involve self-reference.     

Testing the myth of the encoding–retrieval match

The view that successful memory performance depends importantly on the extent to which there is a match between the encoding and retrieval conditions is commonplace in memory research. However, Nairne (Memory, 10, 389–395, 2002) proposed that this idea about trace–cue compatibility being the driving force behind memory retention is a myth, because one cannot make unequivocal predictions about performance by appealing to the encoding–retrieval match. What matters instead is the relative diagnostic value of the match, and not the absolute match. Three experiments were carried out in which participants memorised word pairs and tried to recall target words when given retrieval cues. The diagnostic value of the cue was varied by manipulating the extent to which the cues subsumed other memorised words and the level of the encoding–retrieval match. The results supported Nairne’s (Memory, 10, 389–395, 2002) assertion that the diagnostic value of retrieval cues is a better predictor of memory performance than the absolute encoding–retrieval match.     

Non-monotonicity and Informal Reasoning: Comment on Ferguson (2003)

In this paper, it is argued that Ferguson’s (2003, Argumentation 17, 335–346) recent proposal to reconcile monotonic logic with defeasibility has three counterintuitive consequences. First, the conclusions that can be derived from his new rule of inference are vacuous, a point that as already made against default logics when there are conflicting defaults. Second, his proposal requires a procedural “hack” to the break the symmetry between the disjuncts of the tautological conclusions to which his proposal leads. Third, Ferguson’s proposal amounts to arguing that all everyday inferences are sound by definition. It is concluded that the informal logic response to defeasibility, that an account of the context in which inferences are sound or unsound is required, still stands. It is also observed that another possible response is given by Bayesian probability theory (Oaksford and Chater, in press, Bayesian Rationality: The Probabilistic Approach to Human Reasoning, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK; Hahn and Oaksford, in press, Synthese).