Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting?

The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening and its periphery begins to strengthen. At the same time there is a continuing divergence between the main bulk of developing countries and the group of the poorest developing states. The article also explains why the globalization was bound to lead to the explosive rise of many developing countries and the relative weakening of the developed economies. In the forthcoming decades this trend is likely to continue (although, of course, not without certain interruptions). It is also demonstrated that this convergence constitutes a necessary condition for the next technological breakthrough. This has important implications for the hegemony debates. A rather popular theory of hegemony cycles implies that the eclipse of the global hegemony of the United States should be followed by the emergence of a new global hegemon. This generates the dichotomy of the two main current points of view—either the United States will continue the global leadership in the forthcoming decades, or it will be replaced by China in this capacity. We do not find the study of the future within this dichotomy fruitful. We believe that in a direct connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cycle pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to the World System reconfiguration and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System to continue its further development without a hegemon.     

The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future

This article analyzes some important aspects of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article is devoted to the study of some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. In particular, it is shown that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The article also offers an analysis of some aspects of the global financial system that, according to the authors, notwithstanding all its negative points, performs certain important positive functions including the “insurance” of social guaranties at the global scale. The second part of the article considers some global scenarios of the World System's new future and describes a few characteristics of the forthcoming “Epoch of New Coalitions.” The article attempts to answer such questions as the following: What are the implications of the economic weakening of the United States as the World System center? Will the future World System have a leader? Will it experience a global governance deficit? Will the world fragmentation increase?     

The coming of age of telecommunications in psychological research and practice

Rapid and far-reaching technological advances are revolutionizing the ways in which people relate, communicate, and live their daily lives. Technologies that were hardly used a few years ago, such as the Internet, e-mail, and video teleconferencing, are becoming familiar methods for modern communication. Telecommunications will continue to evolve quickly, spawning telehealth applications for research and the provision of clinical care in communities, university settings, clinics, and medical facilities. The impact on psychology will be significant. This article examines the application of developing technologies as they relate to psychology and discusses implications for professional research and practice.     

Effects of weather and weather forecasts on driver behaviour

Winter-time slipperiness is a considerable source of elevated road accident risk, especially in northern countries such as Canada, Finland and Sweden. The national road administrations often offer a service to inform drivers of forthcoming weather and driving conditions in different regions. This study addressed the effects of adverse weather and traffic weather forecasts on driver behaviour in Finland. Drivers (n = 1437) answered a questionnaire on perceptions of weather, self-reported driving behaviour, pre-trip acquisition of weather information, and possible travel plan changes. The questionnaires were distributed and instantaneously collected in rural service stations in different weather and driving conditions. Data from traffic weather forecasts, automatic traffic counters and weather measurement stations concerning the same area (and road) were also collected. Acquisition of weather information for the trip was associated with low recent driving experience, increasing age, female gender, long trip in question and very poor (local) conditions perceived by the driver. Drivers who had acquired information had also made more changes to travel plans, but information acquisition did not have an effect on their on-road driving behaviour. However, they estimated prevailing risks higher than those who did not acquire weather information. Drivers generally considered the driving conditions better than the forecast, but significantly less so in darkness than in daylight or civil twilight. Leisure trips were clearly underrepresented during very poor driving conditions forecasts, suggesting that some trips are postponed as a result of adverse weather conditions or forecasts thereof. Drivers reported various kinds of compensatory behaviour during adverse conditions, including a 6–7 km/h target speed decrement. This corresponded to traffic flow speed measurements. The results suggest that the on-road driving behaviour is predominantly affected by the prevailing observable conditions, rather than traffic weather forecasts. It is suggested that if administrators wish to help drivers in adjusting their on-road behaviour in adverse weather conditions, the methods should be more local and technical by nature.     

The Dynamics of Cultural and Technological Evolution: Domination Versus Partnership

There is growing consensus that we need a new paradigm if we are to solve the global problems that are the result of actions and policies stemming from prevailing paradigms or cognitive maps. Theories are cognitive maps. This article summarizes cultural transformation theory, which proposes that to solve our mounting global problems we need a clearer understanding of the self-organizing interaction of two basic movements in cultural evolution. The first consists of technological phase changes, including the most recent shift from industrial to electronic, nuclear, and biochemical technologies. The second consists of shifts in a system's orientation to what, based on three decades of transdisciplinary research, the author identifies as the socio-economic, gender, and cultural configurations characteristic of the dominator and partnership models. The article calls for a reassessment of earlier theories as the basis for effective action to accelerate the shift to a world orienting to the partnership rather than dominator model as a basis for a sustainable, equitable, and peaceful future.     

Forecast: Program to obtain forecasts from subjects for successive values of chaotic time series

The programForecast conducts a session to obtain forecasts from subjects for successive values of an evolving chaotic time series. The user of Forecast can control the session by selecting a number of options for the time series, including both the type (Hénon, or logistic) and degree of chaos. Forecast was created in Turbo Pascal and has been run on a 386 AT with a mouse and on a PS/2 with either a mouse or a touch-sensitive screen. Single sessions conducted by Forecast have collected 600 forecasts at a rate of one per 2 sec from adults and, without alteration, 180 forecasts from young (3–5 years) children. Compared with three procedures using other display modes or response modes, Forecast collected about three times the number of forecasts in sessions that were only about a third to one half as long.     

Predicting Happiness: How Normative Feeling Rules Influence (and Even Reverse) Durability Bias

Consumers’ purchase decisions are often influenced by a simple assessment of how long they expect an anticipated purchase (e.g., buying a sports car or a new outfit) will make them happy. Unfortunately, affective forecasts are prone to durability bias (i.e., the overes‐timation of the duration of felt emotions in response to a future event). Here, this article suggests that normative beliefs, or “feeling rules,” often underlie emotion forecasts. This account suggests that affective forecasts can be influenced by external normative communications and that conditions exist where affect duration may be underestimated rather than overestimated—thus demonstrating a reversal of durability bias. Such reversals occur when existing norms advocate attenuated emotional responses (e.g., one should not be overly impacted by minor setbacks or small imperfections). This article discusses how marketers can influence consumers’ happiness forecasts by modifying salient norms for consumer groups or product categories.     

TRAINING AND COUNSELING OF THE OLDER WORKER1

Mature workers are and will continue to be an important source of labor in the economy. By 1975 approximately one-half of the labor force will be over 45 years of age. Problems of training, re-training, and counseling these workers are examined in this paper in terms of some of their characteristics, such as slower work habits, decreased physical strength, adaptability, and lack of self-confidence. Ways to alleviate or compensate for possible handicaps of older employees through training and counseling programs are suggested.     

Political Globalization is Global Political Evolution

Political globalization is one dimension of a process that is multidimensional (not just economic), historical (in millennial proportions), and transformative (in changing planetary institutional structures). Conceiving of political globalization in evolutionary terms (as one centered on innovative sequences of search-and-selection) makes it possible to construct a time-table for global politics, and to derive from it an agenda of priority global problems. The following questions will be addressed on that basis: Where in that process are we situated at the present time? (a time that is one of palpable uncertainty); What global problems does this analysis point to, and what does it tell us about where we are heading? These are not forecasts but rather elements of an “institutional” framework of orientation for the discussion of the next several decades of global organization.     

Weakness of will, reasonability, and compulsion

Experimental philosophers have recently begun to investigate the folk conception of weakness of will (e.g., Mele in Philos Stud 150:391–404, 2010; May and Holton in Philos Stud 157:341–360, 2012; Beebe forthcoming; Sousa and Mauro forthcoming). Their work has focused primarily on the ways in which akrasia (i.e., acting contrary to one’s better judgment), unreasonable violations of resolutions, and variations in the moral valence of actions modulate folk attributions of weakness of will. A key finding that has emerged from this research is that—contrary to the predominant view in the history of philosophy—ordinary participants do not think of weakness of will solely in terms of akrasia but see resolution violations and moral evaluations as playing equally important roles. The present article extends this line of research by reporting the results of four experiments that investigate (i) the interplay between hastily revising one’s resolutions and the degree of reasonableness of the actions one had resolved to undertake, (ii) whether ordinary participants are willing to ascribe weakness of will to agents whose actions stem from compulsion or addiction, and (iii) the respects in which akratic action, resolution violations, and the seriousness of an addiction impact attributions of weakness of will to agents acting in accord with their addictions.     

Introduction: The Dialogical Self in a Global and Digital Age

In this article, culture and self, like society and identity, are conceived as mutually inclusive. On the basis of this premise, self and identity are discussed in the context of an evolution toward a global and digital society. The core concept is the "dialogical self" that is described as a spatial and temporal process of positioning. Examples of multivoiced and dialogical selves are given in communities and cultures that lack advanced technological means. Apparently, the dialogical self is not an exclusive feature of the present era but a general human condition. Specific to the era is that dialogue is becoming increasingly mediated as a result of technological advances. Closely related to these advances, one can witness an increasing cultural complexity, mobility, and hybridization. It is argued that technological developments and global interconnectedness provide new opportunities for innovation of the self as multivoiced and dialogical. At the same time, such developments evoke counter forces that can close the self off from such opportunities. This article ends with a short introduction to the several contributions in this special issue.     

Assessment and Good Teaching

Abstract. This article has three purposes. First, it makes the case for assessment as an educational practice that flows from the core concerns of a school, in this piece particularly seminaries and theological schools. Second, it describes practices that enable assessment to be a resource for achieving the quality everyone wants from an educational and formational program. Finally, it concludes with comments about building a “culture for assessment” so that it becomes a normative practice in how a school goes about the work of education and formation. This article will appear as a chapter in the forthcoming book Educating Leaders for Ministry, which is a collection of essays from the work of the 1996–2000 Keystone Conferences of Roman Catholic seminaries, funded by Lilly Endowment Inc.     

Global Inequality and International Institutions

This article considers the links between international institutions and global economic justice: how international institutions might be morally important; how they have changed; and at what those changes imply for justice. The institutional structure of international society has evolved in ways that help to undercut the arguments of those who take a restrictionist position towards global economic justice. There is now a denser and more integrated network of shared institutions and practices within which social expectations of global justice and injustice have become more securely established. But, at the same time, our major international social institutions continue to constitute a deformed political order. This combination of density and deformity shapes how we should think about international justice in general and has important implications for the scope, character, and modalities of global economic justice. Having laid out a view of normative development and where it leads, the article then examines why international distributive justice remains so marginal to current practice.     

A Peaceful Clash: The U.S. And China: Which Model Holds Out Promise For The Future?

This article analyzes some prospects for the economic and political development of the United States and China. The first part of the article is devoted to the consideration of strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. model and of the Chinese one. The second part of the article considers the most probable scenarios of the future struggle for world leadership. The first scenario suggests that China will continue developing at a faster rate in the several coming decades and will be gradually catching up with the United States in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) production. However, after several crises in 2008–2020 the United States will likely regain a number of advantages over China as a result of assimilation of the newest technologies. The second scenario suggests that the United States will come across a whole range of internal social and political problems related to internal political splits. In this case, the United States will have to share its global leadership with China. The article attempts to answer the following questions: What scenario is more probable? Will the old world order change? What are the main conclusions for the European Union and for Russia?     

Older English churchgoing women as voluntary providers of welfare

The contribution of UK Christian churches to the provision of welfare projects, relying largely on a pool of volunteer labour, has long been recognised by a number of commentators. What is also now recognised is that it is women who have made up and still make up the majority of these volunteers but they are a largely ageing – and declining – population, hence the question arises as to whether most churches in Britain can continue to provide the same levels of support for much longer. This article considers the factors which have made women longstanding and committed individuals in both their churches and their civic communities, and argues that the same conditions do not pertain for their children. Unless more volunteers are forthcoming from secular organisations, we are likely to be seeing a significant gap in voluntary welfare provision at precisely the time when state funding for welfare is being drastically cut and more volunteers are needed, not fewer.     

An overview of the controversial issues in the psychology of language and thought

This article is an overview of the most important controversial issues in the field of psycholinguistics. Seven questions were posed in a dialogue interview to each of the following distinguished scholars in the field: Noam Chomsky, Charles Osgood, Jean Piaget, Ulrich Neisser, and Marcel Kinsbourne. The authors have provided a critical discussion of the issues as well as a summary of the different points of view of each of the above mentioned individuals. The complete dialogues will be published together in a forthcoming book entitledDialogues in the Psychology of Language and Thought.This paper was originally written in collaboration with G. Voyat for and will appear as the introduction of a forthcoming book entitledDialogues in the Psychology of Language and Thought, R. W. Rieber, ed. (Plenum, New York, 1981). The reader should consult the above-mentioned book for a complete picture of the dialogues discussed in this paper.     

The Theological Structure of Christian Faith and the Feasibility of a Global Ecological Ethic

Scientific evolutionary/ecological thinking is the basis for today's understanding that we are now in an ecological crisis. Religions, however, often resist reordering their thinking in light of scientific ideas, and this presents difficulties in trying to develop a viable global ecological ethic. In both the West and Asia religiomoral ecological concerns continue to be formulated largely in terms of traditional concepts rather than in more global terms, as scientific thinking about ecological matters might encourage them to do. The majority of this article is devoted to the kind of reformulation of Western Christian conceptions of God, humanity, and the relation between them that is necessary to address this problem. The question is then raised whether similar critical thinking about religiomoral issues raised by today's evolutionary/ecological scientific thinking is going on in Asian religions and whether it would be too presumptuous (in view of our colonial history) for us Westerners to ask for such rethinking. This leads to a final question: Without such transformations in religious traditions East and West, is the development of a truly global ecological ethic really feasible?     

Rediscovering Meaning

The present crisis of the Western countries involves not just the world of politics, finance, and the economy, but also the ecosystem balance, the world of the values on which the model of social organization and economic development is based. The crisis is therefore systemic, epoch-making, and overcoming it will require radical changes, above all in the way we think, in our scale of values, and therefore our culture. On the other hand, for decades the world—in particular the West—has been experiencing a cultural sea-change that is challenging many of the pillars of society that have stood for centuries. The young people of today and their use of technological social networks to develop non-profit initiatives for social change may create a more positive future while maintaining our human values.     

Faces of the Future: School Counselors as Cultural Mediators

Twenty years ago, futurists examined the changing role of the school counselor and forecasted what the 21st‐century school counselor would need to know. This article forecasts the future of school counseling in the next 20 years by focusing on expected diversity of K‐12 students. Speculation on student enrollment based on projected trends and extrapolated data is used to describe the professional knowledge, awareness, and skills school counselors will need to touch the lives of the students of the future.