从"人口红利"到"健康红利"

中国在未来的15年～20年内面临着"人口红利"的机遇.但是中国人口较低的素质状况使得我们必须大力提高人口素质之后才能真正得到这个"红利".一方面要发展农村合作医疗.另一方面要努力实现健康老龄化,具体地看,要加大宣传人口老龄化的问题、建立机制合理、低成本、高效益的社会保障制度、加强老年医学尤其是生命科学的研究和应用,以迎接人口老龄化对医学技术的挑战.     

多元文化视野中的和辻伦理学

和辻伦理学的核心内容一般被认为是他的"风土"思想和作为"人际之学"的伦理学.该文在这个观点上进一步认为,和辻哲郎一生的学术努力是为了在多元文化的世界中弘扬日本文化和日本思想,这有助于理解和辻伦理学中一些存在着争议的观点,如"风土"思想中的自然决定论倾向、逆日本脱亚入欧的主流弘扬日本民族文化、逆世界民主和平的潮流强调"国民道德"和"尊皇思想"等.     

生育伦理与人口控制社会化

在影响人口发展的诸因素中,生育伦理是影响相对持久、相对直接的一个重要因素.在现代人口发展理论的框架下,人口控制社会化,是人口控制的必然选择,这种控制方式的实施,就必须把正确的社会生育伦理转变为人们的生育观和生育意愿.使人口控制的手段由他律为主转变为自律为主.     

中国人口数量问题的"建构与误导"——中国人口发展战略再思

当前,无论是在认识上还是在实践中,都存在对我国人口数量问题的建构与误导.这不仅表现在对我国净增人口的"高估"上,也表现在对生育水平反弹的"夸大"上,还表现在对少部分人群"合理超生"的"小题大做"上.笔者指出,我们迫切需要依据科学发展观对我国人口问题特别是数量问题进行重新认识,重新界定,需要对旧有认识范式基础上现行生育政策进行深刻的反思.     

中国的低生育水平及相关人口研究问题

本文介绍了当前中国低生育率及其相关研究状况,指出社会和人口方面都存在着许多降低生育率的重要因素,而以往研究则因为思想方法问题忽视了它们的存在.本文还就低生育率新时期对人口形势判断及前瞻性研究中的新特点及实际中存在的问题进行了梳理与评论.本文指出,必须及时扭转以往形成的片面观念和思维定势,否则将会在人口发展问题上贻误战机.     

重新认识人口增长的性质和价值

本文提出了"人口优化理论"的三个基本主张,即实现有品质(内涵)的人口增长、有保障(条件)的人口增长、有贡献(价值)的人口增长,最终实现负责任的成功的人口发展。"人口继替"是人口发展的基本规律。有品质的人口增长要全面、均衡地提升人口的素质。应重视"人口生态优生",和谐共生的人口关系保障人口优生。人口增长的保障性包括了内部保障和外部保障。人口增长的内部保障是指男女老少人口的供求关系相对平衡、城乡人口以及不同行职业的人口的供求能互相支持和满足。人口增长缺乏内部保障表现在可婚女性人口亏损、家庭子代人口亏损、年轻人口供给亏损。人口红利的实质是人口的社会贡献。最后提出鼓励二胎生育的主张。     

城市外来劳动人口与下岗职工就业政策环境的比较研究

本文以北京市为例,深入分析政府针对下岗职工的"保护--激励性"就业政策及外来劳动人口的"限制--歧视性"就业政策的具体内涵与实际效果,认为这种区别性就业政策与当代中国社会结构转型和体制转轨的进程是相抵触的,并且与正在起作用的市场机制相悖,因而其正面效果十分有限,而长期负面效果却非常值得注意.作者指出,在统一劳动力市场逐步形成过程中,促进公平就业应当成为政策制定的基本目标,必须在促进整个社会结构转型和体制转轨的前提下考虑促进就业.     

从“崇公抑私”到“尚公重私”——中国公私观转型视界中的公民精神培育

公私观念构成了中国人行动逻辑的深层基础,而公私差异生成了中国人行动逻辑的特殊主义特性.在"差序格局"与"伦理本住"的社会生活中,"天下为公"的理想、"大公无私"的品格、"崇公抑私"的手段所衍生的"公"的观念却始终是一种基于私人关系的圈层意识,无法超越"一己之私"的范畴,故而思想界多有诟病.在漫长的历史中形成并积淀扎根在中国人的文化心理结构中的公私观念,对于国人之公共参与行为、公民精神培育的影响,首先表现在对国人参与公共事务的意愿或动机的约束上.将公私看作是绝对冲突、势不两立的双方,并且将与个体自我有关的一切方面都归入"私"的范畴而视作必须灭绝铲除之列,如此逆人天性而行,则实际结果只能是公私关系的扭曲和逆转,只能是正常、正当的"公"与正常、正当的"私"的两败俱伤.追求程序公平,必然要肯定"合理之私";强调结果公平,必然要奉行"尚公之道".所以,培育公民精神,推进社会公平,需要大力提倡"尚公重私"的公私观.     

孟京易学与《淮南子》《春秋繁露》关系新证

孟喜的阴阳运行轨迹思想采用了《易传》及《淮南子》的"阴阳顺行"观点。就纳支而言,京房采用"阳顺阴逆"的原则,承续了董仲舒"阳顺阴逆"的阴阳运行观。京房以土星配乾卦,应是受到了董仲舒"尚土"学术思想的影响。孟京易学中透显的"贵微重始""大一统""三纲"等人道思想,与《春秋繁露》中的公羊大义直接相关。     

儒家“己所不欲,勿施于人”新探——以“不逆诈,不亿不信”为切入点

人们在讨论儒家视域中的"金规则"时,往往只引用《论语》中的有限几条。事实上,整部《论语》有许多文本材料都与"己所不欲,勿施于人"有关,比如"不逆诈,不亿不信。抑亦先觉者,是贤乎!"对此,可以借鉴法律审判中的"无罪推定"原则,引入"清白"这一法学术语,借用博弈思维,按照"利者,义之和也"的进路,设计一个伦理学实验。进而经过论证可知,在互相"逆诈"的"囚徒困境"中存在着一条必然导向"己所不欲,勿施于人"的"仇必和而解"之路。康德批评"己所不欲,勿施于人"并不包含对己、对他或共同的责任意识。这样一种说法没有看到"己所不欲,勿施于人","不逆诈,不亿不信",既是自我限制的原则,也是沟通的原则。     

Assessing mobility in an aging society: Personal and built environment factors associated with older people’s subjective transportation deficiency in the US

This study analyzed subjective transportation deficiency, in terms of missing activities due to lack of transportation, of the older population aged 65 and over in the United States. This study found that those who have lower personal automobile accessibility and minority females are more likely to experience transportation deficiency. Older people who have lower income, have lived for a relatively short period (3–10 years) in their communities, and live with minors are also more likely to experience lack of transportation. Older people who live in suburban communities have greater transportation deficiency, but the placement of activity locations within walking distance can improve transportation deficiency among older people who do not drive. The availability of public transit services within walking distance and knowledge about transportation alternatives do not significantly affect the transportation deficiency of the older population. The results indicate that a substantive focus should be given to how to help the older population keep driving as long as they can, and aid communities with high concentrations of older minority females. Also, developing activity clusters containing commercial and social service facilities in suburban areas with high concentrations of older populations, has the potential to alleviate transportation deficiency among this widely observed group of people who age in place.     

《史记》对汉初人口状况的记载分析

《史记·高祖功臣侯者年表》序中的“汉兴……户口可得而数者十二三”这句话,是关于汉初人口状况的最早记载。对这句话的不同理解,影响到人们对汉初人口数量及其他相关历史问题的看法。学界对于这句话有着多种理解。本文认为司马迁此语,应当仅是针对汉初朝廷直接控制区内的户口而言,当时占去最富庶的东、南半壁江山的诸侯王国,是被排除在外的。     

Estimating the population size of transgender women in San Francisco using multiple methods, 2013

Purpose: To estimate the number of adult transgender women (TGW) in San Francisco and to provide an example of how estimation can be conducted.

Methods: Using nine different services accessed by the TGW population, the service multiplier, integrated into a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey of TGW, was used to calculate nine estimates of the TGW population in San Francisco. Both the successive sampling method, also integrated into the RDS survey of TGW, and a population proportion from the literature each calculated an additional estimate of the TGW population. The median of all 11 estimates was calculated to present a single estimate of the TGW population in San Francisco.

Results: The median of estimates was 978 TGW in San Francisco (plausibility bounds 635 – 1,400). This estimate is consistent with known cases of HIV among TGW and surveys on the prevalence of infection in the TGW population.

Conclusion: Using multiple methods, we estimate the TGW population size to be 0.13% of the San Francisco population. Despite small numbers, TGW bear a disproportionate burden of HIV infection in San Francisco. TGW are a priority for HIV care and prevention services.     

Attitudes Toward Fragile X Mutation Carrier Testing from Women Identified in a General Population Survey

Fragile X syndrome is primarily due to a CGG repeat expansion found in the FMR1 X-linked gene. In a previous study, we conducted focus groups with women to assess their attitudes towards fragile X carrier screening. In this follow-up study, we conducted in-depth interviews of general population reproductive-age women who were identified as carriers. We explored their attitudes toward testing for carrier status of the fragile X mutation. These women underwent screening primarily to participate in a research project rather than in search of a diagnosis for specific symptoms. As such, these women were wholly unprepared for positive carrier results. Their responses about their results and carrier screening, in many cases, were being worked out over the course of the interview itself. The most salient finding of this work is the apparent lack of relevance of carrier status to these women. Many expressed that although the information could be relevant in the future, it is not relevant at this stage of their lives in terms of family planning (either with respect to having unaffected offspring or to premature ovarian failure) and personal relationships. Although issues of abortion seemed prominent in the focus groups, we found that carrier status did not have an apparent effect on women’s attitudes about termination. We hypothesize this may be related to the fact that women had not processed their new carrier status and had not related it to previously-formed personal opinions. The findings of this work have significant implications for genetic counseling and population screening. Genetic counselors should be mindful that general population women may not recognize the immediate importance of their carrier status even when literature is provided and discussed prior to providing a sample. As part of comprehensive genetic counseling, counselors should identify the reproductive life stage of the woman receiving the new information and help her identify when this information would be more meaningful in her life. Counselors can assist in setting up a personalized road map with specific types of services that will be more applicable to the woman as her carrier status becomes more relevant.     

现代人群的体质病理学特征:气虚血瘀

气虚血瘀倾向是现代人群一个突出的体质病理学特征.原因是稳定的遗传和已经变化的自然及社会环境的矛盾.这一特征是顽固的,完全克服是困难的.明确这一特征,有利于贯彻中医学"治未病"的思想和促进对相关疾病和人群的"三级预防".     

Role of female behavior in controlling population growth in mice

Sex ratio does not appear to be a factor in generating the characteristic population growth curve. Freely growing populations of house mice, consisting of all females and one male, stopped their growth at approximately the same densities as normal sexratio populations used as references. The mechanism(s) of female control of population dynamics may be related to female aggressive behavior. As the all-female/one-male populations approached their maximum size, the females began to show wounding patterns and social hierarchies in much the same manner as males in populations with normal sex ratios. The male in each of the populations was severely wounded in the posterior region, and each lost its tail as a result of injuries which could have been inflicted only by the females. The female social hierarchy can be seen only when there has been reproduction and population growth. Assembled populations of all females rarely exhibit aggressive behavior. Female aggression becomes apparent only when the population approaches its maximum size and thereafter. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that males are competitive among themselves for territory and social rank, and ultimately to mate with the females. Other investigators have indicated that females respond to population size, which may reflect increased competition between the females with the establishment of territories. Thus female agression may control population growth, a role previously ascribed to male aggression.     

Runaway girls in distress: motivation, background, and personality.

This paper deals with girls aged 13 to 21 who have run away from home. Social workers who work with such girls point out that they are not a homogeneous population and that their motives can be very different. This study divides their motives for running away into two types, "running from" and "running to," and describes the specific personality traits associated with each. Findings indicate that girls who "run to" are younger, more impulsive, have an internal locus of control and a history of more runaways and longer periods of staying away from home. Girls who "run from," on the other hand, are older, more reflective, have an external locus of control and a history of fewer runaways and shorter periods away from home.     

Scientific Understanding and Mathematical Abstraction

This paper argues for two related theses. The first is that mathematical abstraction can play an important role in shaping the way we think about and hence understand certain phenomena, an enterprise that extends well beyond simply representing those phenomena for the purpose of calculating/predicting their behaviour. The second is that much of our contemporary understanding and interpretation of natural selection has resulted from the way it has been described in the context of statistics and mathematics. I argue for these claims by tracing attempts to understand the basis of natural selection from its early formulation as a statistical theory to its later development by R.A. Fisher, one of the founders of modern population genetics. Not only did these developments put natural selection of a firm theoretical foundation but its mathematization changed the way it was understood as a biological process. Instead of simply clarifying its status, mathematical techniques were responsible for redefining or reconceptualising selection. As a corollary I show how a highly idealised mathematical law that seemingly fails to describe any concrete system can nevertheless contain a great deal of accurate information that can enhance our understanding far beyond simply predictive capabilities.

A comparative evaluation of factor- and component-based structural equation modelling approaches under (in)correct construct representations

Structural equation modelling (SEM) has evolved into two domains, factor-based and component-based, dependent on whether constructs are statistically represented as common factors or components. The two SEM domains are conceptually distinct, each assuming their own population models with either of the statistical construct proxies, and statistical SEM approaches should be used for estimating models whose construct representations correspond to what they assume. However, SEM approaches have often been evaluated and compared only under population factor models, providing misleading conclusions about their relative performance. This is partly because population component models and their relationships have not been clearly formulated. Also, it is of fundamental importance to examine how robust SEM approaches can be to potential misrepresentation of constructs because researchers may often lack clear theories to determine whether a factor or component is more representative of a given construct. Addressing these issues, this study begins by clarifying several population component models and their relationships and then provides a comprehensive evaluation of four SEM approaches – the maximum likelihood approach and factor score regression for factor-based SEM as well as generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) and partial least squares path modelling (PLSPM) for component-based SEM – under various experimental conditions. We confirm that the factor-based SEM approaches should be preferred for estimating factor models, whereas the component-based SEM approaches should be chosen for component models. Importantly, the component-based approaches are generally more robust to construct misrepresentation than the factor-based ones. Of the component-based approaches, GSCA should be chosen over PLSPM, regardless of whether or not constructs are misrepresented.