Choice Models of Deterrence: Another Look

Choice models of deterrence emphasize the importance of including rewards and costs for both crime and noncrime in capturing the process whereby criminal decisions are made. A review of the literature indicates that these models also include probabilities as well as magnitudes for both rewards and costs of crime, but exclude probabilities for law-abiding behavior, treating rewards for noncrime as opportunity costs while eschewing their chance of occurrence. Here we provide experimental data comparing the explanatory power of 2 choice models, one that includes probabilities for rewards and costs for noncrime and another that omits these probabilities altogether. Findings show that the more inclusive model explains approximately twice as much variation in the dependent variable, thereby providing additional support for earlier findings.     

犯罪行为决策的理论与研究方法

犯罪行为是犯罪人决策的结果。犯罪行为决策研究旨在通过运用认知心理学的有关原理,说明犯罪行为实施之前的行为决策过程及影响因素,其成果能为国家制定刑事政策与犯罪预防政策等提供理论依据。犯罪行为决策的理论模型主要可分为犯罪理性模型、犯罪期望效用模型和犯罪前景理论模型。犯罪行为决策的研究方法主要采用心理物理法、过程追踪法、访谈法、投射测验法和犯罪统计法等。展望未来,应进一步探讨犯罪行为决策的理性与非理性问题,并加强对犯罪行为决策的验证性研究。     

Recent research on the relationship between illicit drug use and crime

This article reviews research on the relationship between illicit drug use and crime conducted since 1980. Significant advances are noted in studies of the crime of known drug abusers and in studies of the drug use of individuals processed by the criminal justice system. Major conclusions supported by the results of studies of the criminal activity of narcotic abusers are that both a higher prevalence and higher rates of crime are associated with more frequent use of heroin and/or cocaine, although addicts vary with regard to the type, amount, and severity of crime they commit. Rates of lifetime and recent illicit drug use, particularly the use of cocaine, among prisoners, parolees, probationers, and arrestees are high compared to the general population. Issues discussed include the etiology of drug abuse, the effects of treatment and criminal justice interventions on drug use and crime, and drug-related violence.     

Psychological Inertia Revisited: Replicating and Extending the Differential Effect of Proactive and Reactive Criminal Thinking on Crime Continuity

Measures of proactive and reactive criminal thinking were evaluated as putative mediators of the past crime?future crime relationship in a group of 1,354 adjudicated delinquents. Analyses performed on total offending variety scores and aggressive offending frequency scores revealed that reactive but not proactive criminal thinking mediated the past crime?future crime relationship. As in previous studies, proactive criminal thinking failed to correlate with prior criminal offending. These results have theoretical implications for continued development of the criminal thinking-mediated moral and control models of criminal lifestyle development and practical implications for effective treatment, management, and prevention of serious criminality.     

Crime, Social Capital, and Community Participation

Social disorganization at the neighborhood and community levels has been consistently linked to various forms of criminal activity. However, a very much smaller body of literature addresses the effects of crime on community organizations. In some studies, crime appears to energize communities while in others, crime leads to withdrawal from community life. Using department of health crime victimization data and interviews with 2,985 low-income inner city residents living in 487 multi-family dwellings, a multi-level model examined the relationships among crime victimization, social organization, and participation in neighborhood organizations. Social organization at the individual and building levels was measured using recent formulations of social capital theory. Findings regarding crime suggested more signs of a chilling effect on participation than of an energizing effect, especially at the building level. Social capital at the building level was more strongly and consistently related to participation in community organizations than was crime.     

跨期选择的认知机制与神经基础

跨期选择是指个体对发生在不同时间的成本与收益进行权衡的决策过程。跨期选择的计算模型从经济学的角度用数学模型来建构时间折扣函数,而认知成分模型则从心理学的角度来研究跨期选择中的心理效应与认知成分。跨期选择的神经基础有三种不同的研究取向：双机制加工取向、单机制加工取向、自我控制取向。未来研究应该在跨期选择的认知机制、神经通路及运行机制、跨期选择的应用,以及从进化的角度对人与动物的跨期选择行为进行更深入的研究。     

Heterogeneity of strategy use in the Iowa gambling task: A comparison of win-stay/lose-shift and reinforcement learning models

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) has been used in numerous studies, often to examine decision-making performance in different clinical populations. Reinforcement learning (RL) models such as the expectancy valence (EV) model have often been used to characterize choice behavior in this work, and accordingly, parameter differences from these models have been used to examine differences in decision-making processes between different populations. These RL models assume a strategy whereby participants incrementally update the expected rewards for each option and probabilistically select options with higher expected rewards. Here we show that a formal model that assumes a win-stay/lose-shift (WSLS) strategy—which is sensitive only to the outcome of the previous choice—provides the best fit to IGT data from about half of our sample of healthy young adults, and that a prospect valence learning (PVL) model that utilizes a decay reinforcement learning rule provides the best fit to the other half of the data. Further analyses suggested that the better fits of the WSLS model to many participants’ data were not due to an enhanced ability of the WSLS model to mimic the RL strategy assumed by the PVL and EV models. These results suggest that WSLS is a common strategy in the IGT and that both heuristic-based and RL-based models should be used to inform decision-making behavior in the IGT and similar choice tasks.     

Displaced,dispossessed, or lawless? Examining the link between ethnicity,immigration, and violence

The goal of this paper is to build on the growing body of research on immigration and crime in two important ways. The first is to employ more specific measures of immigration than have been used in previous analyses. Specifically, this analysis includes measures of ethnicity, indicators that contain information about both nativity and country of origin, which have rarely been used in prior research. Using ethnic-origin as a means of classifying a neighborhood's foreign-born population will promote a more nuanced understanding of the differential impacts of immigration on levels of violent criminal offending. Additionally, this research advances current knowledge on the link between immigration and crime by using more comprehensive crime indicators, including measures of non-lethal violence, which allows for a test of the degree to which the impact of immigration on violence varies across crime types. Using data for Miami and Houston, two immigrant destination cities, the results illustrate the need for researchers to be sensitive to ethnic differences among foreign-born populations. The findings support the calls for a refinement of the disorganization theory, one that is sensitive to the differences among the foreign-born population and one that does not assume that immigration is a causally associated with levels of criminal violence.     

Making the Punishment Fit the Crime and the Criminal: Attributions of Dangerousness as a Mediator of Liability1

This research examines how individuals use information regarding characteristics of crimes (e. g., crime severity) and characteristics of the offender (e. g, prior criminal record) to form an impression of the criminal as dangerous to society, and to make liability judgments. Two studies presented college students and community members with crime scenarios and asked for ratings of crime severity, likelihood of recidivism, perceived dangerousness of the offender, and liability. Type of crime, severity. and likelihood of recidivism significantly predicted both liability and perceived dangerousness. Further more, in crimes against people only, the effects of severity and recidivism on liability were partially mediated by individuals' perceptions of the offender as criminally dangerous. The discussion examines the implications of these findings for attribution theory and sentencing in the criminal‐justice system.     

How Long Do Offenders Escape Arrest? Using DNA Traces to Analyse when Serial Offenders Are Caught

Why is it that some serial offenders are arrested quickly and others only after a long period, or never at all? What characterises offenders who continue to escape arrest despite their continued involvement in crime? To be able to answer these questions, arrested (identified) offenders must be compared with never arrested (unidentified) offenders. In this paper, data from the Dutch DNA database are used to assess which characteristics of the criminal behaviour of unidentified offenders influence the probability that they will subsequently be arrested. DNA data offer a unique opportunity to compare crime series of identified offenders with crime series of yet unidentified offenders. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we tested whether the number of crimes committed, offence specialization, and offence seriousness affect the probability of arrest of serial offenders. Results showed that as an offender commits more crimes, the probability that he will be arrested increases and that offence specialization decreases the probability of arrest. Another conclusion drawn is that DNA traces offer unique opportunities for criminological research. We discuss the limitations of this new data source and make suggestions for future research using DNA traces and for future research that might improve the current study. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intrinsic motivation,external reward,and their effect on overall motivation and performance

An unresolved debate lingers concerning the effect of performance-contingent rewards on motivation and performance. Behavioral psychology and economics suggest that performance-contingent rewards improve performance. In contrast, cognitive evaluation theory predicts that performance-contingent rewards undermine motivation and performance. We discuss the predictions of these two streams and develop an experiment that resolves the limitations of previous studies by using a new measure of intrinsic motivation: self-selection into a specific area of knowledge, as revealed by choice of academic major. Students from mathematics-related and literature-related areas were selected and randomly assigned to math and English language tests. Participants received a participation fee or a performance-contingent payment in addition to a fee. Both performance-contingent rewards and intrinsic motivation improved motivation and performance, in contrast with cognitive evaluation theory’s predictions.     

Evidence for a magnitude effect in temporal discounting with pigeons

A magnitude effect in human intertemporal choice is well established-larger rewards or outcomes are discounted over time at a lower rate than are smaller rewards. However, many recent studies have failed to find a corresponding effect in nonhuman animals. Here we report a magnitude effect in temporal discounting for pigeons' choices involving a tradeoff between reward delay and amount. Pigeons chose between a small reward (1-s access to food) after a 2-s delay, and a large reward (4.5-s access to food) after a 28-s delay. Across conditions, the delays to the small and large rewards were increased or decreased, respectively. Temporal discounting functions obtained through a value-estimation procedure showed clear evidence of a magnitude effect: The value of the large reward decreased more slowly with increasing delay than the value of the small reward. We linked this result to a nonlinear relationship between choice and the delays associated with the small and large rewards. The nonlinearity was contrary to the generalized matching law but was predicted by the contextual choice model. Our results confirm the existence of a magnitude effect in nonhuman temporal discounting, showing that this adaptation is not unique to humans.     

The Protestant Work Ethic,Expectancy Violations,and Criminal Sentencing1

To test the hypothesis that endorsement of the Protestant work ethic would be related positively to sensitivity to criminal behavior that violated expectations, American college students (N = 159) read scenarios describing a crime committed by a typical or an atypical offender. After answering questions about the crime, they completed Mirels and Garrett's (1971) Protestant Work Ethic (PWE) scale. Extent of punishment was positively related to PWE for atypical criminal behavior. Yet, high PWEs also were more likely to perceive an affluent criminal as experiencing greater remorse for a blue‐collar crime than a white‐collar crime. We relate our results to perceptions of criminal behavior, information‐processing tendencies among individuals endorsing the PWE, and jury selection considerations.     

russian organized crime: the continuation of an american tradition

This research examines the emergence of Russian émigré crime in the United States to determine whether such crime is representative of organized crime in the classic understanding of that term. The prior development of organized crime theory based upon the criminal progression of Italian-American organized crime families guides the analysis of criminal activity by the Russian émigrés in order to maintain some sense of boundary maintenance between events and issues pertinent to the phenomenon of organized crime. With a model for Russian émigrécrime in the United States established, the research examines the underlying characteristics of the emergent Russian criminality with a goal of determining which theoretical model, if any, this social system of criminality fits best. Case studies of recent motor fuel tax frauds perpetrated in the metropolitan New York City and Los Angeles areas serve as examples from which Russian émigré crime is examined, studied, and compared. An assessment is made as to whether the criminality of the émigré Russians can be correctly identified as being representative of organized crime in the traditional understanding of this phenomenon. The analysis demonstrates that the criminality of the Russian e´migre´ crime groups is characteristic of organized crime as this condition has developed and come to be identified and defined by American society.     

Social support and victims of crime: Matching event,support, and outcome

Investigated the buffering properties of six types of social support (three perceived, three received) with regard to four psychological consequences (depression, anxiety, fear of crime, hostility) of criminal victimization (violent crime, property crime). These relationships were examined using longitudinal data collected from a sample composed of representative subsamples of victims and nonvictims. Effects of the perceived support measures (perceived appraisal support, perceived tangible support, self-esteem) were more pervasive than those of the received support measures (received informational support, received tangible support, received emotional support). Perceived support consistently exhibited buffering effects, protecting both violent and property crime victims against various symptoms they would have otherwise experienced. The stress-buffering capabilities of received support were limited to informational and tangible help protecting victims of violence from experiencing excessive fear. These findings are discussed in the context of recent theoretical developments concerning the stress-support matching hypothesis.     

sprees and runs: opportunity construction and criminal episodes

Criminal decision-making researchers generally focus either on offenders' criteria for identifying promising targets or on how offenders' lifestyles condition crime's appeal. Obviously, significant events bridge offenders' routines and discrete criminal choices. However, researchers often neglect the immediate experiences and events that enact lifestyles in particular choices. Drawing on 110 accounts of criminal events by street thieves, this article examines criminal choice. The findings indicate that offenders assess opportunity in light of recent decisions and events. Like all agents, they reference a general outlook and lessons taken from recent choices; looking backward as well as forward, they frame their options within a line of relevant events. When offenders confront potentially criminal situations or promising targets, perceptual outcomes of recent crimes operate alongside a temporary sense of commitment to criminal trajectories of action to inspire a serendipitous optimism. This complex decision-making can happen in an instant and is imperceptible without asking offenders to reflect on the sequential events that precede crime.     

Menstruation and crime: A critical review of the literature from the clinical criminology perspective

The authors review the literature on the relationship between menstruation and crime, focusing upon the methodological limitations of these studies in the broader context of criminological and menstruation research. Based on this review, they conclude: the present state of scientific knowledge is such that it is unknown whether there is an association between any phases of the menstrual cycle and crime; there is no evidence linking fluctuations in reproductive hormones to criminal behavior; and, this lack of scientific knowledge is so glaring that evidence regarding menstruation and crime should not be admissible in criminal trials.     

Opposing pupil responses to offered and anticipated reward values

Previous studies have shown that the pupils dilate more in anticipation of larger rewards. This finding raises the possibility of a more general association between reward amount and pupil size. We tested this idea by characterizing macaque pupil responses to offered rewards during evaluation and comparison in a binary choice task. To control attention, we made use of a design in which offers occurred in sequence. By looking at pupil responses after choice but before reward, we confirmed the previously observed positive association between pupil size and anticipated reward values. Surprisingly, however, we find that pupil size is negatively correlated with the value of offered gambles before choice, during both evaluation and comparison stages of the task. These results demonstrate a functional distinction between offered and anticipated rewards and present evidence against a narrow version of the simulation hypothesis; the idea that we represent offers by reactivating states associated with anticipating them. They also suggest that pupil size is correlated with relative, not absolute, values of offers, suggestive of an accept–reject model of comparison.     

NO ONE IS GUILTY: CRIME, PATRIARCHY, AND INDIVIDUALISM*

Let us begin with a fundamental realization: No amount of thinking and no amount of public policy have brought us any closer to understanding and solving the problem of crime. The more we have reacted to crime, the farther we have removed ourselves from any understanding and any reduction of the problem. In recent years, we have floundered desperately in reformulating the law, punishing the offender, and quantifying our knowledge. Yet this country remains one of the most crime-ridden nations. In spite of all its wealth, economic development, and scientific advances, this country has one of the worst crime records in the world.
With such realization, we return once again—as if starting anew—to the subject of crime, a subject that remains one of our most critical indicators of the state of our personal and collective being. If what is to be said seems outrageous and heretical, it is only because it is necessarily outside the conventional wisdom both of our understanding of the problem and of our attempt to solve it.     

Street Youth,Gender, Financial Strain,and Crime: Exploring Broidy and Agnew's Extension to General Strain Theory

General strain theory posits that adversive circumstances experienced by youths increase the likelihood of criminal behavior. Broidy and Agnew argue that while the underlying process identified in the general strain model will be applicable to both male and female crime different models of strain may be required to highlight gender differences in the underlying process. Utilizing a “high risk” sample of 400 homeless street youths the study examines how socioeconomic strain in the forms of homelessness, monetary dissatisfaction, and relative deprivation may be differentially linked to property and violent crime depending on gender. The conditioning effects of deviant attitudes, deviant peers, attributions, self-efficacy, and self-esteem are also examined. The results reveal few gender differences in the main effects of the different types of strain on crime. There are, however, gender differences in the way the conditioning variables impact the link between forms of strain and crime.