跨期选择单维占优模型的过程检验

跨期选择需要决策者在眼前与未来的损益之间做出权衡与取舍。主流跨期选择理论认为, 跨期选择是把未来价值折扣到现在, 根据折扣后的价值进行选择的过程; 而单维占优模型则认为决策者把“结果”维度上的差异和“延迟”维度上的差异进行比较(维度间差异比较), 然后根据差异更大的维度(即占优势的维度)进行决策。跨期选择众理论之争无果的原因之一或是研究者未能找到揭示其心理过程的令人信服的证据。为此, 本研究采用过程检验而非结果拟合的方法, 首创了“直观模拟天平”任务, 对维度间差异比较的大小进行测量, 从而为验证单维占优模型提供了支持性的证据。实验1A证明了维度间差异大小中介了选择结果, 被试认为“结果”维度上的差异相对于“延迟”维度上的差异越大, 越倾向于选择延迟长、结果大的选项; 反之, 被试认为“延迟”维度上的差异相对于“结果”维度上的差异越大, 越倾向于选择延迟短、结果小的选项。实验1B证明了维度间差异比较是在选择时实时(而不是在选择后)进行的。实验1C通过调整实验程序消减了共同方法偏差对结果的影响。实验2进一步证明维度间差异比较可以解释众多的跨期选择异象。通过4个实验, 本研究揭示了维度间差异比较构成了跨期选择的重要(尽管可能不是唯一)决策过程, 为支持单维占优模型提供了重要的过程验证证据。     

情绪对跨期决策的影响：来自单维占优模型的解释

跨期决策的研究表明, 积极情绪和消极情绪状态下的跨期决策行为存在显著差异。本研究从单维占优模型的角度, 揭示情绪影响跨期决策的过程机制。实验1通过诱发被试的积极和消极情绪, 发现积极情绪下被试的时间折扣率更低, 有更强的选择延迟选项的倾向。实验2运用“模拟天平任务”测量了跨期决策时的维度间差异比较, 检验单维占优模型对情绪影响跨期决策的解释性。结果发现, 维度间差异比较在情绪对跨期决策的影响中起中介作用。实验3a和实验3b分别运用时间和金钱启动策略操纵维度间差异比较过程, 再次验证单维占优模型的解释作用。 结果发现, 情绪对跨期决策的效应随着时间和金钱的启动而消失, 进一步支持了维度间差异比较的中介作用。本研究从决策过程的角度, 揭示了情绪影响跨期决策的心理机制, 并进一步为单维占优模型对跨期决策行为的解释性增加了支持性证据。     

跨期决策中的维度差异偏好：眼动证据

在跨期决策研究领域,虽然基于维度的跨期模型得到了一些源自结果检验和过程检验的证据支持,但此类模型所假设的维度间差异比较的心理过程尚缺乏直接的过程证据。本研究通过两个眼动实验,系统考察了相关眼动指标对维度差异偏好的预测效应。结果发现,根据基于维度的权衡模型可有效拟合出个体在跨期决策中的维度差异偏好,并且反应时、眼跳注视熵和静态注视熵等指标均与维度差异偏好负相关,而基于维度的注意分配与维度差异判断正相关。这些研究发现支持了本研究所提出的跨期眼动模型的相关假设,证实了维度差异偏好与跨期决策的认知加工过程之间的联系,为基于维度的跨期模型提供了更直接的过程证据,并为今后跨期决策的眼动模型发展指明了新方向。     

金钱崇拜对个体跨期决策偏好的影响

采用经典跨期选择任务范式,以个体的金钱喜好差异为切入点,通过问卷调查和行为实验考察金钱崇拜对个体跨期决策偏好的影响。结果发现:(1)个体的金钱崇拜水平与其跨期折扣倾向显著负相关;(2)无论跨期决策任务的难易和兑现时间的长短,高金钱崇拜者更倾向于选择较大的延迟奖赏,而低金钱崇拜者更倾向于选择较小的即时奖赏;(3)高、低金钱崇拜者的跨期决策反应时没有明显的差异,但二者的反应时都明显地受到任务难度的影响,即在容易条件下的反应速度显著快些。结果表明,个体的金钱崇拜水平在跨期决策过程中发挥着重要的作用,致使高金钱崇拜者更愿意等待延迟大奖赏的到来。     

跨期决策是基于选项还是基于维度?

跨期决策有许多不同的理论模型,按其所指信息加工过程,可以分成基于选项的和基于维度的两类决策模型。前者认为各跨期选项被独立赋予一个主观价值,主观价值最大的选项被选择;而后者则认为选项是基于维度被比较的,比较中占优势的选项被选择。本文从行为结果、过程数据和对基于选项模型基本假设的质疑等角度综述了近来支持基于维度模型的证据;并提出未来需要进一步应用认知行为实验和眼动追踪技术对两类模型进行过程研究、在基于维度模型的指导下进行f MRI研究,以及加强损失领域的跨期决策研究以完善跨期决策模型。     

跨期选择研究:从单时点结果到多时点结果

跨期选择是人们对不同时间点的损益做出判断和选择的过程。随着对单时点结果跨期选择心理过程的认识日趋一致,研究者开始加强对多时点结果跨期选择的研究。本文总结了多时点跨期选择研究,尤其是近来出现的一些理论,包括:序列模型(sequences model)、基于理由(reason-based)的理论、突显性解释(salience account)和权衡模型(trade off model),并指出未来研究可以开展的一些方向:包括比较和融合不同的理论、拓展研究的领域和应用眼动追踪技术进行过程研究。     

不确定性容忍度对跨期选择的影响及其情景依赖性

采用2(不确定性容忍度：高、低)×2(跨期日期：今天/14天、今天/180天)×2(延迟奖赏值：200元、1000元)混合实验设计,探讨不同任务特征下不确定性容忍度对跨期选择的影响。结果表明：跨期日期为180天时,不确定性容忍度主效应边缘显著;不确定性容忍度与延迟奖赏值交互作用显著：在200元时低容忍度个体对延迟奖赏的折扣程度大于高容忍度个体,在1000元时无此效应;跨期日期为14天时,不确定性容忍度的主效应及其与延迟奖赏值交互作用均不显著。这表明,不确定性容忍度对跨期选择存在影响,但这种影响受到跨期日期和延迟奖赏值的调节,具有情景依赖性。     

时间洞察力对跨期选择偏好的预测

利用津巴多时间洞察力问卷,采用跨期选择经典范式,考察“现在享乐型”和“未来定向型”两类时间洞察力个体在跨期选择上的偏好,从人格特质角度来探究跨期选择的认知机制。结果发现：(1)现在享乐定向组的延迟折扣率显著高于未来定向组;(2)未来定向组在时间洞察力量表“未来维度”得分与延迟折扣率显著负相关。这说明时间洞察力对个体延迟折扣率具有预测作用,支持了跨期选择的时间感知基础模型。     

提示潜在机会成本对男性海洛因戒断者跨期决策的改善

由于物质成瘾者的跨期决策缺陷在成瘾行为发生、发展及戒断预后中的重要作用,其已成为成瘾研究中的一个靶向干预目标。研究旨在检验提示潜在机会成本能否有效改善男性海洛因戒断者的跨期决策。两个实验分别选取男性海洛因戒断者30名与27名,让其在提示潜在机会成本和未提示潜在机会成本两种决策条件下,分别完成金钱跨期决策任务与海洛因-金钱跨类别延迟折扣任务。结果发现,提示潜在机会成本可以显著减少男性海洛因戒断者在金钱跨期决策任务中选择即时金钱奖赏的数量,但未能显著降低其在海洛因-金钱跨类别延迟折扣任务中的延迟折扣水平。研究结果表明,提示潜在机会成本可以改善男性海洛因戒断者在金钱跨期决策中的短视倾向,但无法改善其在海洛因-金钱跨类别跨期决策中的短视倾向。     

简版和极简版问题性手机使用量表的开发

开发简版(PMPUS-S)和极简版(PMPUS-VS)问题性手机使用量表。对天津某高校和某中学的学生进行施测,基于探索性因素分析简化问题性手机使用题库中的题目从而形成量表,基于多组验证性因素分析检验测量不变性,并评估量表的信效度。结果发现,PMPUS-S包含脱离表现和无手机恐惧2个维度共8个项目,PMPUSVS包含脱离表现维度中的全部4个项目。PMPUS-S和PMPUS-VS具有良好的信效度。经检验,PMPUS-S具有跨年龄组、跨性别的严格等值性,PMPUS-VS具有跨年龄组的严格等值,不满足跨性别等值性。结果表明,简版和极简版问题性手机使用量表各项指标均满足心理测量学要求,可作为评估个体的问题性手机使用行为的工具。     

Decision biases in intertemporal choice and choice under uncertainty: Testing a common account

Two experiments were performed to test a psychophysical account of parallels between biases in risky choice and intertemporal choice. Experiment 1 demonstrated the common difference effect in intertemporal choice and the common ratio effect in risky choice. As was predicted, these two biases were uncorrelated with each other, although each was correlated across monetary/health domains. This result is consistent with the supposition that these two biases result from psychophysical properties of two different dimensions (time and probability, respectively). Experiment 2 examined the magnitude effect in intertemporal choice and the peanuts effect in risky choice. These two biases were correlated with each other but were uncorrelated across monetary/health domains. This result is consistent with the supposition that these two biases result from psychophysical properties of the same dimension (utility of money or health).     

Effects of mindful eating training on delay and probability discounting for food and money in obese and healthy-weight individuals

Obese individuals tend to behave more impulsively than healthy weight individuals across a variety of measures, but it is unclear whether this pattern can be altered. The present study examined the effects of a mindful eating behavioral strategy on impulsive and risky choice patterns for hypothetical food and money. In Experiment 1, 304 participants completed computerized delay and probability discounting tasks for food-related and monetary outcomes. High percent body fat (PBF) predicted more impulsive choice for food, but not small-value money, replicating previous work. In Experiment 2, 102 randomly selected participants from Experiment 1 were assigned to participate in a 50-min workshop on mindful eating or to watch an educational video. They then completed the discounting tasks again. Participants who completed the mindful eating session showed more self-controlled and less risk-averse discounting patterns for food compared to baseline; those in the control condition discounted similarly to baseline rates. There were no changes in discounting for money for either group, suggesting stimulus specificity for food for the mindful eating condition.     

心理距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响

通过考察时间距离、社会距离和概率距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响, 探究跨期选择和风险选择心理过程的相似性, 并检验不同心理距离影响决策的相似性。结果发现, 无论是时间距离(实验1)、社会距离(实验2)、还是概率距离(实验3), 心理距离越远, 被试在跨期选择中越倾向于延迟选项, 在风险选择中越倾向于风险选项。研究认为, 在跨期选择和风险选择中, 选项的表征结构和选项整体评价时不同选项特征的相对权重具有相似性。随着心理距离增加, 与高识解相联系的金额特征的相对权重增加, 与低识解相联系的时间和概率特征的相对权重降低, 这使得被试更倾向于选择金额较大的延迟和风险选项。同时, 研究发现三类心理距离对两类决策有相似影响, 进一步验证了不同心理距离的本质相似性。     

敬畏对跨期选择的影响：时间洞察力和时距敏感度的作用

本研究考察了情绪(敬畏、愉悦和中性)对跨期选择的影响机制,以及时距敏感度和时间洞察力在其中的作用。结果显示：(1)相比中性,敬畏情绪下个体的折扣率更大;(2)相比中性,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅更大;(3)对于未来取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率比中性条件下更大;(4)对于现在取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅比中性条件下更大。结果表明,敬畏情绪通过未来时距的敏感度影响跨期选择偏好,使个体更加偏好延迟奖赏,同时,个体的时间取向在其中起调节作用。     

Temporal discounting for monetary and close relationship outcomes

The present study extended research on intertemporal choice—in which individuals choose between outcomes that may be received immediately or after a delay—to close relationships. In Experiment 1, New Zealand university students aged 18 to 25 made decisions about hypothetical monetary and relationship outcomes, and in Experiment 2, about relationship outcomes which emphasized companionate or sexual aspects (Ns = 64). Both experiments found effects of delay and magnitude on temporal discounting rates, and domain independence for choices about close relationships, similar to previous studies with monetary outcomes. There were no significant gender differences. Overall, results suggest that people make intertemporal choices about relationships according to a similar process used to make decisions involving other types of outcomes.     

Effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice

The effects of self–other decision-making on intertemporal choice have been revealed in many studies using a monetary outcome. However, the outcome of intertemporal choice is not restricted to money; time is also a scarce and nonrenewable resource outcome. Thus, we conducted a series of experiments to address the effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice, a type of intertemporal choice that uses time as an outcome. Over the course of three experiments, differences in self–other decision-making were evidenced. Participants who made decisions for others were more likely to prefer the smaller but sooner (SS) option over the larger but later (LL) option and considered the gain of the SS option to be significantly greater than that of the LL option. Participants who made decisions for themselves were likely to prefer the LL option over the SS option. However, they considered the gains of the LL and the SS option to be indifferent. Changing the role of decision-making could affect the ability of individuals to consider the future consequences of their decisions. The effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice could be explained by the accounts of economic reasoning and construal level theory. The findings indicated that the effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice, which could be generated simply by rewording questions, can help individuals make optimal long-term choices without the need for increased control.