The Impact of Phantom Decoys on Choices and Perceptions

Phantoms are dominating, attractive alternatives that are unavailable at the time of choice. They occupy different positions in the attribute space, and their unavailability can be either known or unknown to individuals. Although different theories have offered explanations for the influence that phantoms exert on individual choices, they have largely overlooked phantom knowledge. Contradictory predictions can be drawn from these theories, and none provides a good account of the pattern of effects that emerges from our data. We suggest that these contradictions appear because the different theories do not address phantom location and knowledge jointly. When considering phantom knowledge together with location, we observe a consistent overall pattern of effects that encompasses all predictions that could be made on the basis of each theory. We find that known phantoms are stronger when close, and favor the target product, whereas unknown phantoms are stronger when far, and favor the competitor. Finally, we look beyond shifts in choice shares and find that phantom decoys can also affect individuals' post‐choice evaluations and reactions in terms of perceived justice, decision satisfaction, and repatronage intention. Our results show that post‐choice evaluations are driven by phantom knowledge, not phantom location. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

决策中的延迟选择行为

延迟选择(choice deferral)指个体在应该作出选择的时候却决定不作选择,包括推迟选择(如选择延迟选项)或拒绝在可选项中选择一个选项。本文首先探讨了影响延迟选择行为的认知因素和情绪因素;随后讨论了当在决策情景中引入延迟选项时,延迟选项对决策者随后情绪体验和决策行为的影响;最后对未来研究进行了展望。     

行为决策研究的新取向——基于经验的决策

基于经验的决策是指,在统计概率情境中,个体通过重复选择与反馈获得选项的收益分布信息后进行的决策.基于经验的决策的研究范式主要包括探索-利用范式和探索→利用范式.其暗含的决策人假设是朴素直觉统计学家.其研究关注的主要内容是描述-经验的差异及其原因,以及基于经验的决策内部过程.未来的研究主要从描述-经验差异的原因、描述性决策范式下的结论的重新检验、基于经验的决策的解释模型及其应用研究等方面进行探讨.     

Testing alternative explanations of phantom decoy effects

Phantom decoys are alternatives that asymmetrically dominate a targeted alternative and yet lead to increased selection of the target when the decoy is declared to be unavailable. This effect is difficult to explain within most standard theoretical accounts of decoy effects. The current experiments tested between three explanations of this effect: (1) the relative advantage model based on loss aversion, (2) similarity substitution, and (3) range weighting. In Experiment 1, participants were presented trinary choice sets, with half of the sets containing a phantom decoy in one of five possible locations within the attribute space. Phantom decoy effects were robust across all decoy locations but one, and the pattern of effects most closely corresponded to predictions of the relative advantage model. Experiment 2 used a within‐subjects manipulation of the five phantom decoy locations. The overall pattern of effects most closely corresponded to predictions from the relative advantage model, as did the pattern for the group of participants who exhibited the strongest phantom decoy effects. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Adaptive Use of Recognition in Group Decision Making

Applying the framework of ecological rationality, the authors studied the adaptivity of group decision making. In detail, they investigated whether groups apply decision strategies conditional on their composition in terms of task‐relevant features. The authors focused on the recognition heuristic, so the task‐relevant features were the validity of the group members' recognition and knowledge, which influenced the potential performance of group strategies. Forty‐three three‐member groups performed an inference task in which they had to infer which of two German companies had the higher market capitalization. Results based on the choice data support the hypothesis that groups adaptively apply the strategy that leads to the highest theoretically achievable performance. Time constraints had no effect on strategy use but did have an effect on the proportions of different types of arguments. Possible mechanisms underlying the adaptive use of recognition in group decision making are discussed.     

Decision Neuroscience: New Directions in Studies of Judgment and Decision Making

ABSTRACT— Investigations of decision making have historically been undertaken by different disciplines, each using different techniques and assumptions, and few unifying efforts have been made. Economists have focused on precise mathematical models of normative decision making, psychologists have examined how decisions are actually made based on cognitive constraints, and neuroscientists have concentrated on the detailed operation of neural systems in simple choices. In recent years, however, researchers in these separate fields have joined forces in an attempt to better specify the foundations of decision making. This interdisciplinary effort has begun to use decision theory to guide the search for the neural bases of reward value and predictability. Concurrently, these formal models are beginning to incorporate processes such as social reward and emotion. The combination of these diverse theoretical approaches and methodologies is already yielding significant progress in the construction of more comprehensive decision-making models.     

The Effect of Decision Strategy on Deciding to Defer Choice

Recent research has examined consumer decision making when the option of not choosing any of the alternatives is also provided. The findings from this research suggest that the decision to defer choice is sensitive to the uncertainty of choosing the most preferred option from the set of alternatives provided. Building on this research, the author tests whether the decision to defer choice is also influenced by task variables that influence decision uncertainty. In the first experiment, this proposition is tested for choice problems in which information on three relatively equally attractive alternatives is presented either sequentially or simultaneously. As predicted, the preference for the defer-choice option was greater when the three alternatives were presented simultaneously. A second study forced subjects into using one of four decision strategies in order to choose between two non-dominated alternatives. The preference for the no-choice option was found to be higher when the rule required explicit attribute tradeoffs and lower when it simplified choice. These results suggest that choice uncertainty is influenced by the decision strategy used to determine the preference among alternatives. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the results for marketers' communication strategies.     

决策中个体差异研究现状述评

决策中个体差异的研究有助于进一步检验和深化传统决策理论。文章回顾了近十年决策个体差异研究的主要变量（人格、认知能力、认知风格和年龄）和研究结果,并简要总结了该类研究的背景、研究范式和理论意义。这些研究一致发现个体差异变量对决策过程、决策表现等具有影响作用,说明个体差异与决策加工中复杂的人-情境间联系有关。文章提出,未来研究应该综合考虑决策情境、情绪和决策主体的理论模型,以期对个体差异在决策中的作用做出更好解释     

Rational Choice and Moral Decision Making in Research

University psychology and sociology researchers rated the likelihood they would engage in misconduct as described in 9 research scenarios, while also making moral judgments and rating the likelihood of discovery and sanctions. Multiple regression revealed significant effects across various scenarios for moral judgment as well as shame and embarrassment on reducing misconduct. The effects on misconduct of the perceived probability of sanctions were conditioned on moral judgments in some scenarios. The results have implications for how universities address the prevention, detection, and sanctioning of research misconduct.     

Holistic Information Integration in Child Decision Making

Weighted‐additive (WADD) strategies require decision makers to integrate multiple values weighted by their relevance. From what age can children make choices in line with such a WADD‐strategy? We compare multi‐attribute decisions of children (6–7; 8–10; 11–12‐year‐olds) with adults in an open information‐board environment without pre‐decisional information search. In two experiments, we classify decision strategies based on individual choice patterns and find that in all age groups the majority of participants are users of a WADD‐strategy. Simple decision heuristics such as lexicographic strategies were applied rarely by children and not at all by adults. In two additional follow‐up studies, we further investigate the underlying process of WADD‐application by analysing decision latencies in combination with a retrospective think‐aloud study. Results suggest that children did not apply WADD‐strategies in a deliberate fashion in our experiments. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the ability to make good and quick decisions by holistically integrating information is already present in young children. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

当前临床决策的问题及对策

随着传统生物医学模式向生物-心理-社会医学模式的转变,临床决策也应由目前以经验医学为主导的经验决策向以循证医学为基础的科学决策转变。     

Regret in Decision Making

Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities and contradictions to which they led. We then sketch a new theory, decision justification theory (DJT), which synthesizes several apparently conflicting findings. DJT postulates two core components of decision–related regret, one associated with the (comparative) evaluation of the outcome, the other with the feeling of self–blame for having made a poor choice. We reinterpret several existing studies in DJT terms. We then report some new studies that directly tested (and support) DJT, and propose a number of research issues that follow from this new approach to regret.     

决策过程中参照点效应研究述评

Kahneman和Tversky提出的“参照点效应”概念,对决策者的认知编码和信息整合方式做出了合理的解释,并对传统的理性决策理论提出了挑战。近年来,关于参照点效应的研究也一直受到众多学者的重视。文章系统阐述了参照点效应的相关概念和最新研究进展,并提出了参照点效应未来研究的4个趋势：日益重视多重参照点效应的研究、开始关注动态决策中的参照点变化机制、重视群体决策过程中的参照点效应研究、注重在现实决策任务中验证和发展参照点效应的相关理论     

偶然情绪对决策的影响

情绪在决策领域中的引入曾历经过一个从刻意回避到日益重视的过程, 大量研究表明, 即使与决策本身无关的偶然情绪也会对人类的决策行为具有重要作用。本文通过梳理本领域的最新研究提出未来应注重考察：偶然情绪的影响条件、具体情绪的作用以及偶然情绪与可选项的情感属性对决策的交互影响。最后, 本文在情绪激发方法、情绪的操纵检测和决策任务实测等方面进行了总结并提出一点研究建议。     

Military Ethical Decision Making: The Effects of Option Choice and Perspective Taking on Moral Decision-Making Processes and Intentions

We investigated the ethical decision-making processes and intentions of 151 military personnel responding to 1 of 2 ethical scenarios drawn from the deployment experiences of military commanders. For each scenario, option choice and perspective affected decision-making processes. Differences were also found between the 2 scenarios. Results add to the emerging literature concerning operational ethical conflicts and highlight the complexity and challenge that often accompanies operational ethics.     

A Fuzzy Topsis Method for Prioritized Aggregation in Multi‐Criteria Decision Making Problems

Aggregation in a decision making environment requires the fusion of opinions of a group of decision makers. The group of decision makers are required to analyse a set of interrelated criteria that are usually measured on a linguistic scale. This process requires, in many instances, to capture experts experience, intuition and thinking that are traditionally expressed in a linguistic fashion rather than a numerical fashion. Furthermore, the necessity of considering the relationship between the criteria to the overall decision must be considered by the group of decision makers. This paper extends the application of fuzzy numbers, fuzzy relative importance scores (FRIS), fuzzy relative weights (FRW) and the fuzzy technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) in prioritized aggregation. This extension provides a mean to systematically aggregate a group of decision makers' views for a set of interrelated criteria that are measured on a linguistic scale. First, an overview of the application of fuzzy numbers and the characteristics of aggregating fuzzy numbers in multi‐criteria decision making problems are presented. Then, the application of TOPSIS in fuzzy environments is presented. Next, past research is highlighted to present prioritized aggregation and the different aggregation operators' classes. Subsequently, a new prioritized aggregation method is presented. This method utilizes fuzzy TOPSIS with prioritized aggregation in fuzzy environments. Finally, the fuzzy prioritized aggregation method presented in this paper is applied on an actual case study. According to the results, the method presented in this paper provides a systematic approach to capture the uncertainty and imprecision associated with quantifying linguistic measurements in multi‐criteria decision making problems. Furthermore, it considers the relationship between the set of linguistically measured criteria undergoing prioritized aggregation in a fuzzy environment. Lastly, findings, conclusions and future work are presented. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of “Display‐Set” Options on Decision‐Making

The way a choice set is constructed can have a significant influence on how individuals perceive and evaluate their options, and make decisions between them. Here, I examine whether a “display set” of visible but unavailable options can exert these same types of influences on whether or not to choose a single (target) item. Across a series of experiments, purchase intent is increased when the display set and target are drawn from the same category, but decreased when the display and target items are mismatched. This effect is shown to depend on perceived similarity, such that increasing display‐target similarity increases purchase intent towards the target. Furthermore, contrary to the predictions made by previous neural and behavioral research on choice sets, the relative value and/or number of display‐only items have no significant impact on these decisions. These findings reveal a novel choice behavior in commonly encountered settings such as online marketplaces. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“易得性启发式”与决策框架对风险决策倾向的影响

研究目的:探讨易得性启发式对风险决策认知过程的影响,以及易得性启发式与决策框架相互作用下的风险投资行为特点。方法:采用2×2×7混合实验设计和情境实验。结果:成功结果的易得性启发式导致对风险决策问题采用自上而下加工,失败结果为自下而上加工;成功结果时投资倾向为风险趋向,失败结果为风险规避;易得性启发式与决策框架共同影响风险投资倾向。结论:易得性启发式影响风险决策的认知加工过程,并与决策框架对风险投资倾向产生交互作用。     

浅析当前临床科学决策的几个影响因素

随着循证医学在我国的发展和"医疗举证责任倒置"等相关法律的实施,我国临床医生在进行诊治决策时已逐步向临床科学决策迈进。而防御性医疗、不健全的医疗制度及相关法律等却严重影响着这一科学决策的转变过程。只有有效解决了导致干扰科学决策的各种社会影响因素,如扩大基本医疗保险的覆盖率,实施医疗风险保险制度,提高医务人员认知和职业素质,保障行医安全等,临床科学决策的真正落实就大有希望。     

The Job Demands and Resources Decision Making (JD-R-DM) Model

This study explores the effects of nurses’ daily job characteristics (i.e., job demands and resources) and general work engagement on their daily decision making (i.e., analytical and intuitive) and consequently their daily performance (i.e., task and contextual). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and a diary for five consecutive days. Results reveal a positive influence of the job demands “work pressure” and “predictability” on analytical decision making. In turn, analytical decision making promotes task performance. Work pressure also negatively influences intuitive decision making which, in turn, stimulates task and contextual performance. However, the job resource (i.e., autonomy) had a nonsignificant relationship with decision making. General work engagement had positive effects on analytical decision making and moderated the relationship between intuitive decision making and contextual performance. For those high on work engagement, the relation was stronger compared to their counterparts low on work engagement. Results corroborate that expanding and testing decision-making theories can increase understanding on how the work environment and engagement influence employee decision making and performance.