有限理性的“占优启发式”和“齐当别”决策模型的作为 ——当Allais悖论杠杆撬动了期望效用理论

人们在做决策时常常要受到时间或知识的限制,有时还要受到其双重限制。关于人们是如何进行风险决策,早期有期望效用理论对其加以解释,但Allais悖论对其标准化地位提出了挑战。Simon的“有限理性”观点提出后,一些研究者开始致力于开发决策的“有限理性”模型。文章讨论并比较了无限理性的期望效用理论被Allais悖论杠杆撬动之后,有限理性的“占优启发式”和“齐当别”决策模型所能做的和所不能做的。两种模型的决策标准、计算策略以及未来研究的展望也一并作了讨论     

艾勒悖论(Allais Paradox)另释

艾勒悖论违背了期望效用(Expected Utility)理论的独立性(independence)原则,成为欲推翻期望效用理论的杠杆。“齐当别”抉择模型不将风险决策行为看成是追求某种“最大期望值”的抉择反应,而将其看成是“最好可能结果之间的取舍”或者“最坏可能结果之间的取舍”。此项研究设计了一“判断”技术,并用此对艾勒设计的选择问题加以检验。实验表明,判断结果所示的“齐当别”策略能满意地对艾勒选择题作出解释。     

人力资源效用分析的研究与应用进展

在以往的许多研究中,运用效用分析方法评价和预测人力资源活动的效能一直受到人们的关注。该文对效用分析的研究和应用做了简要回顾,主要结论有(1)效用分析作为多特征效用理论在人力资源管理领域中的应用,对人力资源活动评价具有重要意义(2)效用模型参数SD的估计方法研究仍然是现在研究的焦点,三种常用参数估计方法特别受到研究的关注(3)人力资源决策情景的效用研究已经引起人们的广泛重视,效用概念、效用信息表示方法、决策情景因素和效用评价方法等都对人们的决策行为产生影响(4)在传统效用模型基础上,对一般的人力资源活动进行效用分析是应用研究的发展趋势。该文最后对效用分析研究做了总结和展望。     

心理学家Daniel Kahneman获2002年诺贝尔经济学奖

心理学家Daniel Kahneman被授予2002年诺贝尔经济学奖。他遵循1978年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Herbert A. Simon的“有限理性”理论和启发式的思想,提出3种常见的启发式:代表性、可得性以及锚定和调整。Kahneman发现人类的决策行为常常是非理性和有偏差的,这与传统经济学理论 (期望效用理论)的预期不符,而且这种偏差是有规律的。Kahneman提出前景理论以解释人类在不确定条件下的判断和决策行为。他获得诺贝尔经济学奖是因为他“把心理学的,特别是关于不确定条件下人的判断和决策的研究思想,结合到了经济科学中。”该文列举实例简单介绍了Daniel Kahneman对心理学和经济学的贡献。     

人力资源效用分析的研究与应用进展

在以往的许多研究中,运用效用分析方法评价和预测人力资源活动的效能一直受到人们的关注。该对效用 研究和应用做了简要回顾,主要结论有：（１）效用分析作为多特征效用理论在人力资源管理领域中的应用,对人力资源活动评价具有重要意义;（２）效用模型参数ＳＤｙ的估计方法研究仍然是瑞研究的焦点,三种在数估计方法特别受到研究的关注;（３）人力资源决策情景的效用研究已经引起人们的广泛重视,效用概念,效用信息表示方法     

Linda问题:"齐当别"抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理.Tversky和Kahneman(1983)使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因.然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清.该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li(1994,2004)提出的不确定情形下决策理论--"齐当别"抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释.     

最优化与满意型决策风格孰优孰劣?

最优化决策者追求决策的最优解,满意型决策者寻求决策的满意解.已有研究以理性模型和有限理性模型为基础,提出了两类决策风格的概念并且从两类决策者的决策特征和心理指标这两个角度详细对比了两类决策风格的差异.就纯粹的经济学效益、主观的心理学意义和现实的决策选择这三方面而言,“两类决策风格孰优孰劣”是一个因人而异,因决策目标而异的问题.未来研究可以在清晰界定两类决策风格概念的基础上进一步完善测量工具,从而深入探讨两类决策风格的领域特异性、与正性情绪的关系及其心理悖论的根源.     

决策与决策执行的关系——一种行动理性的观点

本文以分析决策与执行的关系为出发点,对人类理性的本质进行了讨论。指出决策研究中存在的“理性分析范式”偏面地把认知分析当作人类理性的本质,忽视了行动的作用,提出了人类理性是“行动理性”的思想。行动既是一种分析方法,是人们深化对客观世界的认识,理解决策问题的独特手段,也是人们创造外界环境、实现决策目标的有效途径。由此提出,决策研究,尤其是组织决策研究,应该重视“行动分析范式”。     

不确定情境中的决策心理——适应与认知

不确定情境中的决策问题广受经济学家和心理学家关注,但他们对人的决策行为有不同的解释。该简要回顾了经济学和心理学视野中的决策理论,包括预期效用理论、主观预期效用理论和前景理论。主要介绍了“生态理性”观对人的决策心理的研究,着重介绍了研究发现的几种启发式策略,如“一个理由策略”,并探讨了他们在人适应过程中的作用。中最后分析了决策问题的研究现状。     

犯罪行为决策的理论与研究方法

犯罪行为是犯罪人决策的结果。犯罪行为决策研究旨在通过运用认知心理学的有关原理,说明犯罪行为实施之前的行为决策过程及影响因素,其成果能为国家制定刑事政策与犯罪预防政策等提供理论依据。犯罪行为决策的理论模型主要可分为犯罪理性模型、犯罪期望效用模型和犯罪前景理论模型。犯罪行为决策的研究方法主要采用心理物理法、过程追踪法、访谈法、投射测验法和犯罪统计法等。展望未来,应进一步探讨犯罪行为决策的理性与非理性问题,并加强对犯罪行为决策的验证性研究。     

Together – apart: in touch in a time of separation

This paper explores the experience of working as a Jungian analyst through the various phases of the global COVID-19 pandemic, examining the importance of the physical containing space alongside the analyst’s internal mind and how technology can both help and hinder understanding. A number of clinical vignettes illustrate the challenge of communicating over a distance, paying particular attention to the way countertransference phenomena can become re-attuned. Reference is made to mythology and symbols of hope, and consideration given to the meaning and purpose of the pandemic.     

The Possibility of Meaning in Human Evolution

Science undermines the certitude of non-naturalistic answers to the question of whether human life has meaning. I explore whether evolution can provide a naturalistic basis for existential meaning. Using the work of philosopher Daniel Dennett and scientist Ursula Goodenough, I argue that evolution is the locus of the possibility of meaning because it has produced intentionality, the matrix of consciousness. I conclude that the question of the meaning of human life is an existentialist one: existential meaning is a product of the individual and collective tasks human beings undertake.     

Phenotypic plasticity and archetype: a response to common objections to the biological theory of archetype and instinct

Since Jung’s death in 1961, scholars have attempted to integrate growing biological science data into Jungian concepts such as the collective unconscious, instincts and the archetypes. This enterprise has been challenging due to persistent false dichotomies of gene and environment occasionally arising. Recent works by Roesler (2022a, 2022b) for example, have raised objections to the biological theory of archetypes, but the objections are plagued by such dichotomies. The concept of phenotypic plasticity, however, helps to both avoid this problem as well as bridge the gap between competing theories into a more integrated model with solid biological foundations.     

When is it time to stop? When good enough becomes bad enough

This article draws on Winnicott’s concept of the good enough mother to discuss how to know whether a therapeutic situation is good enough to continue or bad enough to end. This dilemma is explored in terms of clinical syndromes, such as anorexia and pathological gambling, but focuses mainly on analyst-initiated endings, which are termed the ‘Casablanca dilemma’, based on an amplification of the ending of the film Casablanca. The author goes on to discuss such one-sided endings, drawing on interviews with 40 analysts and therapists about their clinical experience. A typology of bad enough endings is presented. The psychological differences between a good enough analysis as opposed to a bad enough one are explored through the ideas of Winnicott and Neumann.     

Kann Es Ein Argument Für Den Skeptizismus Geben? Das Epistemische Problem Der Irrtumsmöglichkeit

Summary  Is there any argument for scepticism? The epistemic problem of the possibility of error. Arguments for scepticism rest on the assumption that knowledge claims are fallible. For this reason the concept of knowledge appears to be questionable. Since it is necessary to distinguish doubts from possible doubts, the arguments for scepticism appear to be unconvincing. If we take it into account that we know something that is immune to doubt, we should draw the conclusion that, contrary to scepticism, knowledge claims have to be compatible with being fallible. Thus any knowledge claim is capable of being doubted.     

The transcendent function in Spitteler’s Prometheus and Epimetheus

In August 2020, John Beebe and Steve Myers met via Zoom to discuss their differing interpretations of psychological typology and the different sources within Jung’s writings that influenced their books: Integrity in Depth: Energies and Patterns in Psychological Type (Beebe), and Myers-Briggs Typology vs Jungian Individuation (Myers). The discussion centred on Spitteler’s epic poem Prometheus und Epimetheus, which forms the basis of chapter V of Psychological Types. This is both the largest chapter and one of two chapters that Jung highlighted in the Argentine foreword as containing the essence of the book. Jung’s book is primarily about the transformation of personality rather than the categorization of people. Although it contains a critical psychology that deconstructs the nature of consciousness, that is only one half of the book and a stepping-stone to the other half, which is the reconciliation of opposites with particular emphasis on the relation of consciousness and the unconscious. Jung assumed that readers were already familiar with Prometheus und Epimetheus, an understanding of which sheds light on the nature of the transformation that Jung described – the development of a new attitude towards attitude itself.     

Chapter 6: Biblical Foundations for a Practical Theology of Aging

SUMMARY

This article reviews Biblical sources pertaining to the elderly, particularly the frail elderly. Founded on these sources, implications for elderly with Alzheimer's Disease and other forms of dementia are addressed through a personal perspective informed by writings of Christian mystics.     

Seeing in the Dark: A View into Dissociation and Healing

In this paper, I will explore the role of art-making, the experience of trauma and dissociation, and the process of working with self-states from an analytic and creative frame. Relevant literature on dissociation, trauma, and the use of art will be discussed. A case involving my work with an adolescent girl who had experienced sexual abuse from a family member will be shared, with an emphasis on the meaningful role images played during the therapeutic process. Both Jungian and psychoanalytic models of conceptualizing and working with dissociation are included, following Donald Kalsched’s (2013) recommendation for a “binocular stance” to treatment, including both a focus on the inner, intrapsychic world and the interpersonal, relational realm, and how art images both illuminated and expressed these realms. Within the therapeutic process, art images allowed the therapist a view into the client’s unconscious process, and created a meeting ground for dissociative barriers to be gradually seen, felt and known, by both therapist and client. The experience of dissociation, in images and in session, provided a reference point for myself and my client, Taylor, to develop a shared understanding and a framework for growth.