时间感知在跨期决策中的作用——时间决策模型的新探索

“时间”是跨期决策的“必需品”, 人们感知到的延迟时间决定跨期决策的结果。近年来, 研究者发现“时间长度感知”、“时间资源感知”和“时间框架感知”是时间感知作用于跨期决策的主要方式。时间感知的神经作用机制包含微观层面和宏观层面两种。“对数/指数时间折扣模型”、“感知时间基础模型”及“多模态漂移扩散模型”解释了时间感知的作用方式。然而, 现有理论模型还存在诸多局限, 主要包括“长短时距预测偏差”和“实际决策与预期决策偏差”两个方面。因此, 深入探讨时间感知影响跨期决策的基本方式, 分析现有理论模型的局限性并提出整合的机制框架具有十分重要的意义。未来研究亟需进一步整合时间感知的理论模型, 开展脑机制与应用方面的研究, 从深层揭露时间感知的作用本质, 帮助个人与社会更理性地决策。     

Mind games: the mental representation of conflict

Perception and misperception play a pivotal role in conflict and negotiation. We introduce a framework that explains how people think about their outcome interdependence in conflict and negotiation and how their views shape their behavior. Seven studies show that people's mental representations of conflict are predictably constrained to a small set of possibilities with important behavioral and social consequences. Studies 1 and 2 found that, when prompted to represent a conflict in matrix form, more than 70% of the people created 1 of 4 archetypal mixed-motive games (out of 576 possibilities): Maximizing Difference, Assurance, Chicken, and Prisoner's Dilemma. Study 3 demonstrated that these mental representations relate in predictable ways to negotiators' fixed-pie perceptions. Studies 4-6 showed that these mental representations shape individuals' behavior and interactions with others, including cooperation, perspective taking, and use of deception in negotiation, and through them, conflict's outcomes. Study 7 found that the games that people think they are playing influence how their counterparts see them, as well as their counterparts' negotiation expectations. Overall, the findings document noteworthy regularities in people's mental representations of outcome interdependence in conflict and illustrate that 4 archetypal games can encapsulate fundamental psychological processes that emerge repeatedly in conflict and negotiation.     

Resource slack and propensity to discount delayed investments of time versus money

The authors demonstrate that people discount delayed outcomes as a result of perceived changes over time in supplies of slack. Slack is the perceived surplus of a given resource available to complete a focal task. The present research shows that, in general, people expect slack for time to be greater in the future than in the present. Typically, this expectation of growth of slack in the future is more pronounced for time than for money. In 7 experiments, the authors demonstrate that systematic temporal shifts of perceived slack determine the extent and the pattern of delay discounting, including hyperbolic discounting. They use this framework to explain differential propensity to delay investments and receipts of time and money.     

跨期决策中的负折扣现象及其机制

主流跨期决策模型认为, 跨期决策存在一个时间折扣过程。时间折扣是指人们会根据将来获益或损失的延迟时间对其效用进行折扣, 折扣后的效用小于原来的效用, 而负折扣现象违背了时间折扣过程。负折扣现象出现在金钱、非金钱的获益与损失领域, 其可能的解释机制为预期情绪。目前关于负折扣现象的研究, 较少验证其影响机制, 未来的研究可以结合眼动追踪和fMRI技术探讨其机制, 并丰富对负折扣现象的影响因素研究。     

Discounting of food and water in rats shows trait- and state-like characteristics

Delay discounting is the loss in value of an outcome as a function of its delay. The present study focused on examining a trait-like characteristic of delay discounting in a preclinical animal model. Specifically, we were interested in whether there was a positive relation between discounting of 2 different outcomes in rats. That is, would rats that discount delayed food steeply also discount delayed water steeply? In addition, we examined how session-to-session variability in discounting could be attributed to differences between subjects (trait variability) and to differences within subjects (state variability). Finally, we measured discounting from early- to mid-adulthood, allowing us to examine changes in discounting as a function of age. Overall, we found a moderate, positive correlation between discounting of food and discounting of water in rats, providing further evidence that the relative consistency with which individuals discount different outcomes is a trait-like characteristic. In addition, we found a high degree of within-subject variability in discounting, indicating strong state-like differences from session to session. Finally, overall, discounting decreased as a function of age; however, individual-subject data showed variability in how discounting changed across time. Overall, our results show that differences in delay discounting between individuals reflect variability in both trait- and state-like characteristics.     

No pain,no gain? A resource-based model of work-to-family enrichment and conflict

Work–family scholars tend to work in two largely disconnected research streams, focusing on either work–family enrichment—the positive side of the work–family interface—or work–family conflict—the negative side of this interface. The purpose of this study is to suggest a reconciliation of the two research streams by proposing and testing a resource-based model of work-to-family enrichment and conflict. Specifically, we propose that an individual's work role engagement has two independent outcomes, work role resource gain and loss, and they separately mediate the relationships between work role engagement and work-to-family enrichment and conflict. We further propose that two dimensions of regulatory focus, promotion focus and prevention focus, moderate the relationships between work role engagement and work role resource gain and loss respectively. Structural equation modeling results based on data from 1052 employees of Chinese firms offer general support for these notions.     

Discounting of food,sex, and money

Discounting is a useful framework for understanding choice involving a range of delayed and probabilistic outcomes (e.g., money, food, drugs), but relatively few studies have examined how people discount other commodities (e.g., entertainment, sex). Using a novel discounting task, where the length of a line represented the value of an outcome and was adjusted using a staircase procedure, we replicated previous findings showing that individuals discount delayed and probabilistic outcomes in a manner well described by a hyperbola-like function. In addition, we found strong positive correlations between discounting rates of delayed, but not probabilistic, outcomes. This suggests that discounting of delayed outcomes may be relatively predictable across outcome types but that discounting of probabilistic outcomes may depend more on specific contexts. The generality of delay discounting and potential context dependence of probability discounting may provide important information regarding factors contributing to choice behavior.     

Time and Rhythm in Couples

In this article, a theory is offered on the role of time in couple functioning and distress. The theory argues that no single set of temporal patterns is associated with couple distress or satisfaction. Rather, it advocates attention to the individual differences between couples in their understanding of the meaning of the temporal patterns in their relationship. The couple's narrative about the evolution and maintenance of these temporal patterns can be understood as revealing much about partners' experiences of the relationship in terms of the concepts of closeness and power. Interventions on the temporal dimension may be useful when the couple presents with an explicit problem in temporal patterns; when a particular temporal pattern prevents the couple from addressing other issues; and when the therapist wishes to reframe a problem in a manner that lowers conflict intensity. Along with the theory, a preliminary taxonomy of time problems in couples is presented as a guide to assessment. This is followed by clinical vignettes to illustrate how the theory can be used in couple therapy.     

相对剥夺感:概念、测量、影响因素及作用

相对剥夺感(relative deprivation,RD)是指个体或群体通过与参照群体比较而感知到自身处于不利地位,进而体验到愤怒和不满等负性情绪的一种主观认知和情绪体验。目前,相对剥夺感的测量模型主要有个体–群体RD与认知–情感RD的二维垂直结构模型、认知–情感RD的双维结构模型、个体–群体RD的双维结构模型以及RD的三维结构模型。影响相对剥夺感的相关因素主要包括人口统计学变量、个体特征变量和社会环境变量。影响效应方面,相对剥夺感与心理健康、个体行为等个体水平变量以及群际态度、集群行为等群体水平变量的关系是当前关注的焦点。今后研究的重点应包括完善相对剥夺感的概念与结构、注重青少年及特殊群体研究、丰富研究内容和视角、强化纵向干预研究以及本土化和跨文化研究等。     

Negative moods and the motivated remembering of past selves: the role of implicit theories of personal stability

This research program explored how the positivity of people's memories of their past personal attributes is influenced by their desire to cope with negative mood states. The studies tested the hypothesis that beliefs and motives regarding the stability of personality will determine whether people idealize or derogate their earlier attributes in an attempt to repair distressing feelings. When knowledge structures or motives implying personal change are activated, people should derogate their past selves in response to negative moods; in contrast, when these factors imply personal stability, people should idealize their past selves in response to negative moods. Studies 1-3, which assessed the impact of mood negativity (neutral vs. negative) and theories (or motives) regarding personal change (change vs. stability) on the positivity of people's memories of their past attributes, supported this reasoning. Study 4 extended these findings by examining how an underlying mediating variable--mood-repair motivation--guides the effect of negative moods on recall of past selves. Implications of the results for research on temporal comparison, mood-congruent recall, and posttraumatic growth are discussed.     

Family factors and adolescent substance use: models and mechanisms

This article considers the relation of family factors to adolescent substance use, with a focus on the specific pathways by which family factors have their effects. We review findings on four types of variables (family substance use, parental support and monitoring, parent-child conflict, and family life events) and discuss theoretical models of how family risk and protective factors are related to adolescents' outcomes. The evidence favors a transactional model in which family factors have largely mediated effects on adolescent substance use through relations to adolescents' self-control, life events, and peer affiliations; interactions between variables are also prominent. We discuss the implications of mediated effects for theoretical models of human development and consider how the transactional approach opens avenues for preventive intervention.     

Evidence for the Impact of Organisational Resources Versus Job Characteristics in Assessments of Occupational Stress Over Time

Considerable evidence demonstrates the importance of both job demands and job resources in the prediction of employee health and motivational outcomes. However, scant empirical evidence explains how broader organisational factors can also have an impact on these outcomes. Utilising the job demands-resources (JD-R) model as a theoretical explanation of occupational stress, we examined the impact of employees’ alignment with their organisation's strategic objectives (strategic alignment) in predicting long-term occupational health outcomes. The sample consisted of 1,601 police officers employed in one Australian police service, who completed two self-report surveys over 12 months. Results of the study indicated that strategic alignment was the only resource to reduce psychological strain, and to increase work engagement over time. Job demands were not found to be significantly associated with either psychological strain or work engagement over time. There was also no evidence of the moderating effects of job resources on health and motivational outcomes. The theoretical and practical implications of the inclusion of strategic alignment as an organisational resource are discussed.     

Intertemporal Framing Issues in Management Compensation

This study investigates whether manager–decision-makers’ expectations about incentive compensation and environmental uncertainty influence investment decisions through their effect on the decision maker's implied discount rate. This is, to our knowledge, a first attempt to manipulate implicit risk, the risk to future payoffs associated with environmental uncertainty. Both these factors and waiting time are expected to influence implied discount rates. The study investigates discount rate influences under both bonus and penalty incentive plans. The hypothetical bonuses are year-end cash bonuses; the penalties are opportunity costs. Responses were analyzed using both analysis of variance and regression. The regression analysis was used to separate time discounting from the other factors affecting implied discount rates. Subjects’ responses to proposed changes in the timing of cash bonuses were dramatic when an expanding economy was suggested. However, subjects’ responses to penalty provisions were less dramatic than corresponding responses to the out-of-pocket negative outcomes studied in previous research. In some situations, penalty provisions may be more effective for inducing investment than bonus provisions. In addition, the results suggest that efforts to change management decision making using deferred compensation may require more deferred compensation than time discounting alone would require.     

Family boundary characteristics,work–family conflict and life satisfaction: A moderated mediation model

Although work–family border and boundary theory suggest individuals' boundary characteristics influence their work–family relationship, it is largely unknown how boundary flexibility and permeability mutually influence work–family conflict and subsequent employee outcomes. Moreover, the existing work–family conflict research has been mainly conducted in the United States and other Western countries. To address these gaps in the work–family literature, the present study examines a moderated mediation model regarding how family boundary characteristics may influence individuals' work–family conflict and life satisfaction with a sample of 278 Chinese full‐time employees. Results showed that employees' family flexibility negatively related to their perceived work interference with family (WIF) and family interference with work (FIW), and both these two relationships were augmented by individuals' family permeability. In addition, WIF mediated the relationship between family flexibility and life satisfaction; the indirect effect of family flexibility on life satisfaction via WIF was stronger for individuals with higher family permeability. The theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are discussed.     

A timely account of the role of duration in decision making

The current work takes a general perspective on the role of time in decision making. There are many different relationships and interactions between time and decision making, and no single summary can do justice to this topic. In this paper we will describe a few of the aspects in which time and decision making are interleaved: (a) temporal perspectives of decisions--the various temporal orientations that decision-makers may adopt while making decisions, and the impact of such temporal orientations on the decision process and its outcomes; (b) time as a medium within which decisions take place--the nature of decision processes that occur along time; (c) time as a resource and as a contextual factor--the implications of shortage in time resources and the impact of time limits on decision making processes and performance; (d) time as a commodity--time as the subject matter of decision making. The paper ends with a few general questions on the role of duration in decision making.     

DOWN TO EARTH WITH NIETZSCHE: The ethical effects of attitudes toward time and body

This paper is about the effects on people's lives of their attitudes towards time and their own embodiment. People commonly see time as biform; there is the time of bodily life and the eternal time which transcends mortal life. This division is deeply implicated in the dualistic values that pervade western thought. So, when Nietzsche substitutes a monist notion of time, he profoundly unsettles our cherished values (which, of course, are gendered). Nietzsche's major thrust, I argue, is to elucidate and advocate the more appropriate values that emerge when human existence is understood as entirely earthborn.I use two contrasting literary characters to show concretely how people's lives and relationships are affected negatively or positively according to the temporal perspectives they adopt (and thus the significance they give to their corporeality). I explain how acceptance of human finitude enables a fruitful and rewarding life, while its refusal is life-diminishing. This also makes conceivable a realm beyond gender.     

The identity function of autobiographical memory: time is on our side

Autobiographical memory plays an important role in the construction of personal identity. We review evidence of the bi-directional link between memory and identity. Individuals' current self-views, beliefs, and goals influence their recollections and appraisals of former selves. In turn, people's current self-views are influenced by what they remember about their personal past, as well as how they recall earlier selves and episodes. People's reconstructed evaluations of memories, their perceived distance from past experiences, and the point of view of their recollections have implications for how the past affects the present. We focus on how people's constructions of themselves through time serve the function of creating a coherent--and largely favourable--view of their present selves and circumstances.     

时间贴现的性质与脑机制

时间贴现是指个人对事件的价值量估计随着时间的流逝而下降的心理现象,它是行为选择理论的一个重要组成部分。着重介绍了时间贴现的数学模型（指数模型、双曲线模型族、非双曲线模型）、时间贴现现象和概率贴现现象的联系、延迟兑现与提前兑现时间贴现不对称现象及其理论解释,还讨论了时间贴现现象的神经机制研究。提出了时间贴现未来研究的几个主要问题     

Time preferences for the very long term

Many important decisions concern outcomes delayed by decades or centuries. Whereas some economists have argued that inter-generational discount rates should be lower than intra-generational rates, three experiments found that inter- and intra-generational discount rates were quite similar. Experiment 1 found that discount rates for long delays (30-900 years) were lower than those for shorter delays (1-30 years) but that, holding delay constant, discount rates for outcomes occurring to future generations were similar to those for outcomes occurring to the present generation. Experiment 2 compared inter-generational discount rates for three different types of outcomes and found similar discount rates for saving lives, improving health, and financial benefits. Experiment 3 found similar inter-generational discounting of life-saving programs that benefit people close to or distant from the decision maker. These studies indicate that the discount rate applied to outcomes occurring to future generations depends on the length of the time delay but not on other factors.