An alternative perspective on von Winterfeldt et al.'s (1997) test of consequence monotonicity

D. von Winterfeldt, N.-K. Chung, R. D. Luce, and Y. Cho (1997) provided several tests for consequence monotonicity of choice or judgment, using certainty equivalents of gambles. The authors reaxiomatized consequence monotonicity in a probabilistic framework and reanalyzed von Winterfeldt et al.'s main experiment via a bootstrap method. Their application offers new insights into consequence monotonicity as well as into von Winterfeldt et al.'s 3 experimental paradigms: judged certainty equivalents (JCE), QUICKINDIFF, and parameter estimation by sequential testing (PEST). For QUICKINDIFF, the authors found no indication of violations of "random consequence monotonicity." This sharply contrasts the findings of von Winterfeldt et al., who concluded that axiom violations were the most pronounced under that procedure. The authors found potential evidence for violations in JCE and certainty equivalents derived from PEST.     

How do we evaluate future gambles? Experimental evidence on path dependency in risky intertemporal choice

This study reports three experiments which demonstrate path dependency in risky intertemporal choice. Consider a lottery to be resolved and paid in a future time period. One can obtain the present value of this lottery in three different ways: (1) eliciting directly the present certainty equivalent (CE) of the future lottery (direct path); (2) eliciting the future CE and then discounting this amount to the present (risk‐time path); and (3) eliciting the present value of the risky prospect and then determining the CE of this current lottery (time‐risk path). Standard rational choice models such as the discounted expected utility model, assume a multiplicative model, where all three methods mentioned above would yield the same value. We conducted three studies to examine if this is the case: Experiments 1 and 2 were based on a set of matching‐task questions and Experiment 3 used a process‐tracing design to analyze the natural sequence of decision making by the subjects. These three studies show that the evaluation of future gambles is path‐dependent. The present values elicited under the time‐risk and direct paths are, on average, higher than those reported under the risk‐time path. In addition, we found evidence for a two‐stage evaluation of risky future prospects: When evaluating a future gamble, individuals first assess the present value of the gamble (time discounting) and then they determine a certainty equivalent (probability discounting). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Queuing Among U2 Fans: Reactions to Social Norm Violations1

Two experiments examined reactions to line‐intrusion scenarios among fans of the rock group U2 waiting in overnight lines to obtain desirable concert floor spots. Commitment to the goal, time investment, and ambiguity of the line‐intrusion scenario were examined. Results showed that the queue is a social system influenced by norms of procedural justice (first‐come, first‐served). Violations of these norms were upsetting, even when the consequences did not directly influence personal outcomes (when line intrusions occurred behind a subject). Greater commitment to the goal led to more severe reactions to norm violations, whether the commitment was proximal (having waited in the line for awhile) or distal (being a committed fan). We discuss research on social norm violations.     

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.     

Evidence against Rank-Dependent Utility Theories: Tests of Cumulative Independence,Interval Independence,Stochastic Dominance,and Transitivity

This study tests between two modern theories of decision making. Rank- and sign-dependent utility (RSDU) models, including cumulative prospect theory (CPT), imply stochastic dominance and two cumulative independence conditions. Configural weight models, with parameters estimated in previous research, predict systematic violations of these properties for certain choices. Experimental data systematically violate all three properties, contrary to RSDU but consistent with configural weight models. This study also tests whether violations of stochastic dominance can be explained by violations of transitivity. Violations of transitivity may be evidence of a dominance detecting mechanism. Although some transitivity violations were observed, most choice triads violated stochastic dominance without violating transitivity. Judged differences between gambles were not consistent with the CPT model. Data were not consistent with the editing principles of cancellation and combination. The main findings are interpreted in terms of coalescing, the principle that equal outcomes can be combined in a gamble by adding their probabilities. RSDU models imply coalescing but configural weight models violate it, allowing configural weighting to explain violations of stochastic dominance and cumulative independence.     

Do community and autonomy moral violations elicit different emotions?

According to one important set of theories, different domains of immorality are linked to different discrete emotions—panculturally. Violations against the community elicit contempt, whereas violations against an individual elicit anger. To test this theory, American, Indian and Japanese participants (N = 480) indicated contempt and anger reactions (with verbal rating and face selection) to both the types of immorality. To remedy method problems in previous research, community and autonomy violations were created for the same story‐frame, by varying the target to be either the community or an individual. Community and autonomy violations did not differ significantly in the emotion elicited: overall, both types of violations elicited more anger than contempt (and more negative emotion of any kind than positive emotion). By verbal rating, Americans and Indians reported more anger than contempt for both types of violation, whereas Japanese reported more contempt than anger for both types. By face selection, the three cultural groups selected anger more than contempt for both types of violation. The results speak against defining distinct domains of morality by their association with distinct emotions.     

Robust Tolerance for Ambiguity

We argue first that "ambiguous prospects" should be defined in a way that is compatible with dictionary definitions and other technical uses of ambiguity. We then define an ambiguous prospect as a disjunction of risky prospects. Then to harmonize some findings in the literature we test the hypothesis that people are ambiguity indifferent up to moderate amounts of ambiguity and are ambiguity averse only for large amounts of ambiguity. To test the hypothesis we found probability equivalents to risk for prospects of varying degrees of ambiguity. Up to an ambiguity range of .7 the equivalents were near that of a normatively equivalent risky prospect while the equivalents of highly ambiguous prospects differed. We interpret the data in terms of competing desires for minimum effort and maximum accuracy.     

The Cognitive Processes Underlying Risky Choice

In this article, we tested two concepts of decision making: expected utility theory and heuristic choice. In Experiment 1, we applied think‐aloud protocols to investigate violations of expected utility theory. In Experiments 2 to 4, we introduced a new process‐tracing method—called predict‐aloud protocols—that has advantages over previously suggested research methods. Results show the following: (i) people examine information between rather than within gambles; (ii) the priority heuristic emerges as the most frequently used strategy when problems are difficult; and (iii) people check for similarity when problems are easy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Children's judgements of gambles: a disordinal violation of utility

Violations of utility are often attributed to people's differential reactions to risk versus certainty or uncertainty, or more generally to the way that people perceive outcomes and consequences. However, a core feature of utility is additivity, and violations may also occur because of averaging effects. Averaging is pervasive in intuitive riskless judgement throughout many domains, as shown with Anderson's Information Integration approach. The present study extends these findings to judgement under risk. Five‐ to 10‐year old children showed a disordinal violation of utility because they averaged the part worths of duplex gambles rather than add them, as adults do, and as normatively prescribed. Thus adults realized that two prizes are better than one, but children preferred a high chance to win one prize to the same gamble plus an additional small chance to win a second prize. This result suggests that an additive operator may not be a natural component of the intuitive psychological concept of expected value that emerges in childhood. The implications of a developmental perspective for the study of judgement and decision are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Interplay of News Frames on Cognitive Complexity

This research considers how distinct news frames work in combination to influence information processing. It extends framing research grounded in prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1981) and attribution theory (Iyengar, 1991) to study conditional framing effects on associative memory. Using a 2 × 3 experimental design embedded within a probability survey (N= 379), tests examined the effects of two different frame dimensions—loss‐gain and individual‐societal—on the complexity of individuals' thoughts concerning the issue of urban growth. Findings indicate that news frames interact to generate more or less complex cognitive responses, with societal‐gain frame combinations generating the most detailed cognitions about the causes, components, and consequences of urban growth. Directions for research on media framing are discussed.     

Modeling the Impact of Control on the Attractiveness of Risk in a Prospect Theory Framework

Many decisions involve a degree of personal control over event outcomes, which is exerted through one's knowledge or skill. In three experiments we investigated differences in decision making between prospects based on a) the outcome of random events and b) the outcome of events characterized by control. In Experiment 1, participants estimated certainty equivalents (CEs) for bets based on either random events or the correctness of their answers to U.S. state population questions across the probability spectrum. In Experiment 2, participants estimated CEs for bets based on random events, answers to U.S. state population questions, or answers to questions about 2007 NCAA football game results. Experiment 3 extended the same procedure as Experiment 1 using a within-subjects design. We modeled data from all experiments in a prospect theory framework to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. Participants weighted the probabilities associated with bets characterized by control so as to reflect greater risk attractiveness relative to bets based on random events, as evidenced by more elevated weighting functions under conditions of control. This research elucidates possible cognitive mechanisms behind increased risk taking for decisions characterized by control, and implications for various literatures are discussed.     

A multiple‐method analysis of appraisal–emotion relationships: The case of the prosocial intergroup emotions

Despite its status as a prominent set of theories for explaining the elicitation and differentiation of emotions, much appraisal theory and research offer little indication of the nature of the relationship expected between appraisals and emotions. Here, we present a three‐study, multiple‐method analysis in which we examine numerous ways of testing appraisal–emotion relationships using the “prosocial” intergroup emotions—sympathy, anger, and guilt—as an example. Results show that the set of appraisal dimensions that appears strongly characteristic of an emotion varies depending on the kind of appraisal—emotion relationship hypothesised and the experimental methodology/statistical analysis used. These findings demonstrate the utility of explicit theorising about the nature of the relationship between emotions and appraisals, and show how the hypothesised appraisal–emotion relationship and choice of methodology can affect the structure of appraisal theories. We recommend an analysis across multiple methods to provide a more complete picture of a given set of appraisal–emotion relationships.     

成就动机和性别对风险倾向的预测作用

研究通过对等同绝对值(CE)的比较将冒险倾向转换为可以量化比较的变量,旨在探讨成就动机和性别在经济获益和损失的各种概率情景下对冒险倾向的预测作用。结果发现,高低成就动机组并没有表现出冒险倾向的显著差异。进一步的相关分析发现,成就动机中的回避失败维度与获益情景下的冒险倾向相关显著,而追求成功维度与各个情景下的相关都不显著。以回避失败维度聚类得到的高低回避失败组,体现出来的冒险倾向趋势显示高回避失败组的被试在获益低概率、获益中等概率、获益高概率、损失低概率、损失中等概率和损失高概率6种情景下都更加回避冒险,而且两组等同绝对值中位数的差异在获益中等概率和获益高概率两种情况下达到显著。另外,冒险倾向的性别差异只在损失中等概率和损失高概率两种情景中达到显著,这两种情况下都是女性更冒险,这与传统的女性更保守的刻板印象不同。     

Stating Preference for the Ethereal but Choosing the Concrete: How the Tangibility of Attributes Affects Attribute Weighting in Value Elicitation and Choice

Marketers routinely make use of stated consumer preferences and the relative attribute‐importance weights implied by these preferences when making decisions on issues such as advertising messages and product design. Using this information as a basis for managerial decision making is risky, though, if stated preferences diverge from actual choices. Practical evidence that such a divergence is of concern is provided by the current trend toward the use of stated choice‐based conjoint analysis. This article examines differences between the attribute‐importance weights consumers use during value elicitation and the attribute weights revealed to influence actual choice. The results of an empirical analysis of automobile stated preference and purchase decisions, and an experiment and subsequent qualitative analysis of wine choice, converge to suggest that consumers’ attribute weightings differ in value elicitation versus choice in a reliable manner. Specifically, we demonstrate a tangibility effect—the tendency for tangible attributes to be weighted relatively more heavily than intangible attributes in choice as compared to in value elicitation. The process underlying the tangibility effect is discussed, as are the implications for researchers and managers.     

The effects of attention and task-relevance on the processing of syntactic violations during listening to two concurrent speech streams

The notion of automatic syntactic analysis received support from some event-related potential (ERP) studies. However, none of these studies tested syntax processing in the presence of a concurrent speech stream. Here we present two concurrent continuous speech streams, manipulating two variables potentially affecting speech processing in a fully crossed design: attention (focused vs. divided) and task (lexical – detecting numerals vs. syntactical – detecting syntactic violations). ERPs elicited by syntactic violations and numerals as targets were compared with those for distractors (task-relevant events in the unattended speech stream) and attended and unattended task-irrelevant events. As was expected, only target numerals elicited the N2b and P3 components. The amplitudes of these components did not significantly differ between focused and divided attention. Both task-relevant and task-irrelevant syntactic violations elicited the N400 ERP component within the attended but not in the unattended speech stream. P600 was only elicited by target syntactic violations. These results provide no support for the notion of automatic syntactic analysis. Rather, it appears that task-relevance is a prerequisite of P600 elicitation, implying that in-depth syntactic analysis occurs only for attended speech under everyday listening situations.     

A dynamic, stochastic, computational model of preference reversal phenomena

Preference orderings among a set of options may depend on the elicitation method (e.g., choice or pricing); these preference reversals challenge traditional decision theories. Previous attempts to explain these reversals have relied on allowing utility of the options to change across elicitation methods by changing the decision weights, the attribute values, or the combination of this information--still, no theory has successfully accounted for all the phenomena. In this article, the authors present a new computational model that accounts for the empirical trends without changing decision weights, values, or combination rules. Rather, the current model specifies a dynamic evaluation and response process that correctly predicts preference orderings across 6 elicitation methods, retains stable evaluations across methods, and makes novel predictions regarding response distributions and response times.     

Selecting a best multiattribute alternative with partial information about attribute weights

Use of approximate weights would greatly simplify decision analysis under certainty since detailed weight elicitation could be avoided. This paper examines the degree to which rank order information about weights can be used to identify a best alternative, or falling uniqueness prescribes an easily implemented rule for selecting a ‘best’ alternative. The prescribed rule uses as weights the centroid of the feasible region defined by the rank order information. In conjunction with the rule, the value of the rank order information can be determined using an ‘expected gain from weight precision’ (EGWP) measure, analogous to ‘expected value of perfect information’ in decision analysis under uncertainty.     

The Nature and Processing of Errors in Interactive Behavior

Understanding the nature of errors in a simple, rule‐based task—programming a VCR—required analyzing the interactions among human cognition, the artifact, and the task. This analysis was guided by least‐effort principles and yielded a control structure that combined a rule hierarchy task‐to‐device with display‐based difference‐reduction. A model based on this analysis was used to trace action protocols collected from participants as they programmed a simulated VCR. Trials that ended without success (the show was not correctly programmed) were interrogated to yield insights regarding problems in acquiring the control structure. For successful trials (the show was correctly programmed), steps that the model would make were categorized as matches to the model; steps that the model would not make were violations of the model. The model was able to trace the vast majority of correct keystrokes and yielded a business‐as‐usual account of the detection and correction of errors. Violations of the model fell into one of two fundamental categories. The model provided insights into certain subcategories of errors; whereas, regularities within other subcategories of error suggested limitations to the model. Although errors were rare when compared to the total number of correct actions, they were important. Errors were made on 4% of the keypresses that, if not detected, would have prevented two‐thirds of the shows from being successfully recorded. A misprogrammed show is a minor annoyance to the user. However, devices with the approximate complexity of a VCR are ubiquitous and have found their way into emergency rooms, airplane cockpits, power plants, and so on. Errors of ignorance may be reduced by training; however, errors in the routine performance of skilled users can only be reduced by design.