Invited Review—Survey of Value‐Focused Thinking: Applications,Research Developments and Areas for Future Research

Criteria are the central focus of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Many authors have suggested using our values (or preferences) to define the criteria we use to evaluate alternatives. Value‐focused thinking (VFT) is an important philosophy that advocates a more fundamental view of values in our decision making in our private and professional lives. VFT proponents advocate starting first with our values and then using our values to create decision opportunities, evaluate alternatives and finally develop improved alternatives. It has been 20 years since VFT was first introduced by Ralph Keeney. This paper surveys the VFT literature to provide a comprehensive summary of the significant applications, describe the main research developments and identify areas for future research. We review the scope and magnitude of VFT applications and the key developments in theory since VFT was introduced in 1992 and found 89 papers written in 29 journals from 1992 to 2010. We develop about 20 research questions that include the type of article (application, theory, case study, etc.), the size of the decision space (which, when given, ranged from $200K to billions of dollars), the contribution documented in the article (application benefits) and the research contributions (categorized by preferences, uncertainties and alternatives). After summarizing the answers to these questions, we conclude the paper with suggestions for improving VFT applications and potential future research. We found a large number of significant VFT applications and several useful research contributions. We also found an increasing number of VFT papers written by international authors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonabsolute/relativistic thinking: A common factor underlying models of postformal reasoning?

Strong empirical evidence was obtained in support of the proposition that nonabsolute/relativistic (N/R) thinking is a unifying commonality underlying four postformal models of higher-order thinking, namely, problem finding, dialectical reasoning, relativistic operations, and reflective judgment. Within the construct of N/R thinking, two dimensions—the basic form and the epistemic view—and two levels—the formal form and the postformal form—were differentiated as hypothesized. The findings clarify logical relationships among the models as well as provide a common link unifying their diversity. Implications and suggestions for future research are provided.     

Effects of Solution Elicitation Aids and Need for Cognition on the Generation of Solutions to Ill-Structured Problems

Numerous techniques have been proposed to assist problem solvers in the solution generation process. We empirically examined the effectiveness of a solution elicitation technique based on the presentation of problem objectives and also examined whether the technique was effective across individual differences in need for cognition (NC). We found that when two conflicting objectives were presented successively, more solutions, more categories of solutions, and more effective solutions were generated than when the same two objectives were presented simultaneously or not at all. However, the results indicated that effective solutions may be more efficiently generated by considering objectives simultaneously. Need for cognition was positively related to measures of divergent thinking, and the presentation of objectives was particularly effective as a solution elicitation aid for individuals with low NC. Implications for creative problem-solving research and practice are discussed.     

Combining Value‐focused Thinking and Balanced Scorecard to Improve Decision‐making in Strategic Management

Goal orientation is key to strategic management. In this field, the Balanced Scorecard is one of the most widely used management tools. It structures a company's main objectives from different perspectives based on the strategy of the firm and uses performance indicators to measure the achievement of objectives and strategy. However, its method of creation is not theoretically sound. Value‐focused thinking is a decision‐making philosophy that fits perfectly with Balanced Scorecard creation. It provides methods and techniques for the identification and structuring of objectives that are suitable to systematically derive a scorecard from a means‐ends network. However, such a means‐ends network is often too complex for enduring use in strategic management. By adapting the network's structure to the Balanced Scorecard's layout, the profound and clear set of derived objectives and their measures serve as a reasonable basis for applying methods of multi‐criteria decision‐making in an organization. This paper aimed to outline a procedure that merges the Balanced Scorecard and value‐focused thinking by preserving each concept's strengths while eliminating their weaknesses. A six‐step process was developed theoretically and employed empirically in a case study. This process included (1) identifying objectives; (2) structuring objectives; (3) characterizing clusters of objectives; (4) formulating mission, vision, and strategy; (5) designing the scorecard; and (6) monitoring and adapting to change. On the basis of this approach, a Management Scorecard was produced that enabled strategy development and execution, put forth a clear and comprehensive means‐ends network, and visualized a company's most important objectives and their relationships structured through perspectives roughly following the Balanced Scorecard. It acts as a foundation for research to generalize and compare findings regarding goals of organizations. Our procedure demonstrates how scientific methods, such as value‐focused thinking, can yield benefits to practitioners' instruments, like the Balanced Scorecard, and how management tools can likewise improve scientific methods. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling collective choice: decision‐making on complex intellective tasks

Three studies examined group problem‐solving on complex intellective tasks. In Study 1, a decision model proposed by Laughlin and Hollingshead ( 1995 ) provided the best fit to actual group choices. This study also compared three‐person group versus individual performance with time constrained and number of problems unconstrained, with individuals solving non‐significantly more problems and groups obtaining significantly superior trials‐to‐solution scores. In Study 2, one member of each group was given additional information on how to perform the task and member extroversion was measured. Neither factor significantly impacted the decision‐making process. In Study 3, task expertise was assessed prior to the group interaction. Results indicate that group members were twice as likely to adopt an option proposed by an expert compared to other group members. Together these studies demonstrate that group problem solving is governed jointly by qualities of the task and qualities of the group members. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some cognitive aspects of figurative language: Association and metaphor

This study was designed to explore the relationship between some predictions generated by a cognitive-feature model of association and metaphor understanding. Several kinds of data were collected from University of Tennessee undergraduates on the two key nouns in each of 28 randomly selected metaphors—both in and out of metaphor context—as well as judged goodness and ease of writing interpretations for the metaphors themselves. Interword similarity, free association variability, and characteristics of common property distributions for key-noun pairs were highly intercorrelated (as predicted by the associative model) and also related to metaphor goodness and difficulty of metaphor interpretation (canonical r=0.78). These results provide indirect support for the associative model and also provide some insight into the cognitive processes underlying metaphor understanding.     

Influences of sex composition,decision rule,and decision consequences in small group policy making

Previous research has indicated sex differences in style of interaction for members in small groups. It was assumed that some of these sex differences could be attributed to demand characteristics in relation to specific topics discussed by group members in earlier investigations. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relative importance of two such demand characteristics, decision rule (consensus rule vs. majority rule), and decision consequence (high vs. low consequences), in addition to the sex composition of the group membership. Adherence to the group decision was also studied. On a topic previously rated as important, 16 four-person groups of males and the same number of female groups met and deliberated on a decision regarding an academic policy. Later these undergraduate students indicated their preference on the decision topic. The results showed male—female differences not accounted for by decision rule, decision consequence, or group decision post-test change. Explanation of the sex differences was offered in terms of varying academic aspiration levels and incongruency with attained academic achievement. The results also lend partial support for the importance of some operating demand characteristics, as yet unidentified.     

Education and Understanding Structural Causes for Group Inequalities

Group inequalities in the United States are most often attributed to the characteristics of the individuals who belong to these groups; thinking about structural causes of group inequalities is rare. This paper reviews cognitive, cultural, and systemic reasons for this bias. The efficacy of education as a way to increase structural thinking was investigated in two studies of college students' causal thinking about group inequalities. Both studies involved a course on intergroup relations that covered structural sources of racial or ethnic inequalities. Results supported hypotheses that the course would increase structural thinking about racial or ethnic inequality, and that structural thinking would generalize to inequalities not explicitly covered in the course. Both course content and active learning pedagogy were related to structural thinking about inequalities. Active learning was also related to applying structural thinking to targets of change.     

The power of causal beliefs and conflicting evidence on causal judgments and decision making

In two experiments, we investigated the relative impact of causal beliefs and empirical evidence on both decision making and causal judgments, and whether this relative impact could be altered by previous experience. Participants had to decide which of two alternatives would attain a higher outcome on the basis of four cues. After completing the decision task, they were asked to estimate to what extent each cue was a reliable cause of the outcome. Participants were provided with instructions that causally related two of the cues to the outcome, whereas they received neutral information about the other two cues. Two of the four cues—a causal and a neutral cue—had high validity and were both generative. The remaining two cues had low validity, and were generative in Experiment 1, but almost not related to the outcome in Experiment 2. Selected groups of participants in both experiments received pre-training with either causal or neutral cues, or no pre-training was provided. Results revealed that the impact of causal beliefs and empirical evidence depends on both the experienced pre-training and cue validity. When all cues were generative and participants received pre-training with causal cues, they mostly relied on their causal beliefs, whereas they relied on empirical evidence when they received pre-training with neutral cues. In contrast, when some of the cues were almost not related to the outcome, participants’ responses were primarily influenced by validity and—to a lesser extent—by causal beliefs. In either case, however, the influence of causal beliefs was higher in causal judgments than in decision making. While current theoretical approaches in causal learning focus either on the effect of causal beliefs or empirical evidence, the present research shows that both factors are required to explain the flexibility involved in human inferences.     

Crossing Cultures: Training Effects on the Divergent Thinking Attitudes of Spanish-Speaking South American Managers

ABSTRACT: Field experiments investigated the effects of training Spanish-speaking South American managers in creative thinking and problem solving. The Spanish translations of two attitude measures associated with divergent thinking practice (an important aspect of creative thinking and problem solving) were tested and validated. The two attitudes were measured both before and after training. The results indicate that the concepts and methods of similar training provided in previous Japanese and North American research are applicable to Spanish-speaking South American managers. The first experimental group (n = 149) showed significant gains on both measures versus a placebo control group. The second and third experimental groups (n = 54 and n = 14) were given revised versions of the 14-item questionnaire, and the results showed significant improvement in the reliability of the Spanish translations. Future directions for research include increasing the reliability of the Spanish versions of the two attitudinal measures and extending the training effect investigation beyond attitude changes to include behavior changes and long-term persistence and portability to the job.     

Productive and Re‐productive Thinking in Solving Insight Problems

Many innovations in organizations result when people discover insightful solutions to problems. Insightful problem‐solving was considered by Gestalt psychologists to be associated with productive, as opposed to re‐productive, thinking. Productive thinking is characterized by shifts in perspective which allow the problem solver to consider new, sometimes transformational, approaches. Re‐productive thinking, on the other hand, involves the application of familiar, routine, procedures. This article reports a study which investigated how self‐reported productive and re‐productive thinking are related to an individual's ability to solve insight problems. Our measures were tested against the Kirton Adaption‐Innovation Inventory (KAI), and a battery of spatial insight problems. The results indicated that productive and re‐productive thinking and the KAI were successful in predicting performance on spatial insight problems. Furthermore, the measures of productive and re‐productive thinking accounted for spatial insight performance independently of scores on the KAI. In addition, the results suggested that re‐productive thinking consists of two different components—one based on group conventions and the other on personal experience. Each contributed differently to solving insight problems.     

Framing and Group Decision-Making: Do Cognitive Changes Parallel Preference Changes?

Subjects had their initial frames of reference concerning a decision problem (Asian Disease problem; Tversky & Kahneman, 1981, Science,211, 453–458) manipulated in order to compose four-person groups containing members with different frames of reference. Three different group compositions (number of members with "gain-oriented" vs "loss-oriented" frames) were used: three gain-oriented and one loss oriented (3–1), two gain-oriented and two loss-oriented (2–2), and one gain-oriented and three loss-oriented (1–3). Results indicated a postgroup discussion choice shift toward the risk alternative in the 2–2 and the 1–3 composition conditions. However, changes in members′ frames of reference were unrelated to preference changes. Group composition also affected group decision processes. Implications for future theory and research in small group decision-making are discussed.     

大学生心理控制源与内疚感和羞耻感对反事实思维的影响

研究以128名大学生为研究对象,采用2 (心理控制源: 外控型、内控型)×2 (自我道德感: 内疚感、羞耻感) 两因素被试间实验设计,考察了外控和内控大学生在内疚感和羞耻感两种不同的自我道德情感下反事实思维内容的差异。结果表明:(1) 心理控制源对大学生反事实思维不同内容的诱发具有重要的影响:外控者更倾向于产生行为和情境导向的反事实思维,而内控者更倾向于产生自我导向的反事实思维。内疚感和羞耻感对大学生反事实思维内容的产生没有直接的影响;(2) 反事实思维内容的产生受到了心理控制源与内疚感和羞耻感两种自我道德情感的交互影响:外控者在羞耻感的启动条件下比在内疚感的启动条件下表现出了更多的行为和情境导向的反事实思维,而内控者在内疚感的启动条件下比在羞耻感的条件下表现出了更多的自我导向的反事实思维。研究结果有助于解释以中西方不同被试而得出的内疚感和羞耻感与反事实思维关系的矛盾结论。     

Comparing the Effect of Thinking Maps Training Package Developed by the Thinking Maps Method on the Reading Performance of Dyslexic Students

The present study aimed to develop the thinking maps training package and compare its training effect with the thinking maps method on the reading performance of second and fifth grade of elementary school male dyslexic students. For this mixed method exploratory study, from among the above mentioned grades’ students in Isfahan, 90 students who met the inclusion criteria were selected by multistage sampling and randomly assigned into six experimental and control groups. The data were collected by reading and dyslexia test and Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-fourth edition. The results of covariance analysis indicated a significant difference between the reading performance of the experimental (thinking maps training package and thinking maps method groups) and control groups (\(p< .01\)). Moreover, there were significant differences between the thinking maps training package group and thinking maps method group in some of the subtests (\(p< .01\)). It can be concluded that thinking maps training package and the thinking maps method exert a positive influence on the reading performance of dyslexic students; therefore, thinking maps can be used as an effective training and treatment method.     

Problem formulation for multi-criteria decision analysis: report of a workshop

This paper reports on a workshop on Problem Formulation in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis held at SPUDM97. The focus of the workshop was the problem formulation phase which occurs between the analyst meeting a person with a ‘mess’ and the time he or she begins to analyse a structured problem with several alternatives scored against several attributes or criteria. The objectives were: to share experience on procedures which might be transferable between the methodologies; to demonstrate different skills used by the analyst in structuring decision problems; and to catalyse a discussion on the problem formulation phase of an analysis. Three analysts, who generally approach problems using multiattribute methods, addressed the same problem. The problem used was constructed to be realistic to three decision makers, who had been trained in the issues of concern. There were two sessions. Each analyst was assigned a decision maker and formulated the problem independently in the first session, held in parallel. They were each observed by two observers and many of the audience at the workshop. The three formulations were presented along with the comments of the observers and discussed at a second plenary session. This paper reports the three formulations and observations, remarking on the ‘tricks of the trade’ employed by the analysts in formulating the problem. The analysts also describe their thinking and their aims in adopting their approach and style of interaction. More general remarks on the process of decision analysis are also offered. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Minority Influence, Divergent Thinking and Detection of Correct Solutions

In many applied settings involving influence processes in small groups, the interest is in how such processes aid or hinder effective decision making and problem solving. In a recent formulation, Nemeth (1986) argued that exposure to opposing views emanating from a minority leads to divergent thinking, a process that involves a consideration of the problem from varying viewpoints. On balance, such influence would aid performance. Exposure to opposing majority viewpoints leads to convergent thought where S s presumably concentrate on the proposed viewpoint to the exclusion of other considerations. On balance, this form of influence tends not to aid performance and may prove to be an impediment. In the present study, these hypotheses were tested in the context of anagram solutions. Results showed that subjects exposed to the minority viewpoint found more correct words and they achieved this superior performance by a usage of all possible strategies. Subjects exposed to the majority viewpoint initially used the strategy suggested by the majority to the detriment of other strategies and, in general, performed at the level of control subjects. These results are discussed in terms of potential contributions made by exposure to dissenting minority viewpoints in small group decision-making settings such as trial by jury and in society at large.     

Propositional Versus Structural Semantic Analyses of Medical Diagnostic Thinking

Two approaches to the study of diagnostic thinking are compared, one mainly propositional, namely that of Patel and Groen (1986), the other mainly semantic, that of Lemieux and Bordage (1986). Patel and Groen analyzed the linear dimension of cardiologists' discourses while solving a case of acute bacterial endocarditis, that is, the before and after propositional rules. A secondary analysis of two of their pothophysiological protocols is done using structural semantic techniques from Lemieux and Bordage where the vertical dimension of the discourses is analyzed, that is, the levels of meaning or semantic axes. Contrary to Patel and Groen's position, making an accurate diagnosis is not explained in terms of pure forward reasoning through networks of causal rules, but by means of networks of semantic qualities abstracted from the symptoms and signs. The semantic qualities operate in the clinician's mind in terms of binary oppositions (e.g., sudden-gradual, unilateral-bilateral) whereby each pair of properties constitutes a semantic axis (e.g., sudden-gradual). The successful diagnosticians are those who use the most diversified and pertinent set of semantic axes and, therefore, have a deeper representation of the problem.     

反向思考和类比思考对锚定效应的影响

采用基于锚定效应经典研究范式的自编问卷对120名在校大学生进行调查研究。研究一通过对参与者使用反向思考与类比思考的应对方案前后的数据比较,考察两种思考方法是否能够降低锚定效应的影响。以往同类研究中发现,时间压力作为一个重要影响因素会对最终结果产生重大影响。研究二基于研究一加入时间压力来考察高时间压力是否能够使应对方案失效。结果表明,反向思考和类比思考的应对方案能够降低锚定效应的影响,高时间压力下应对方案依然有效。这一结果启示我们,在决策时,要有批判精神,要三思而行,做一个理智的决策者。     

思维风格对中美大学生课堂学习行为的影响研究

对长期以来具有争议的中美学生存在课堂学习行为差异的现象,研究者推测中美学生由于具有思维风格的差异,造成他们对课堂内容的处理方式的区别,从而影响他们不同的课堂行为反应。研究对来自于中国学生、中国留美学生和美国学生三组样本的数据进行分析。结果表明在控制了文化组别和学习动机因素后,思维风格仍能显著预测课堂学习行为,并能部分地解释中美学生之间存在的课堂学习行为差异。