Investigating the roots of the favourite–longshot bias: an analysis of decision making by supply‐ and demand‐side agents in parallel betting markets

This paper offers new insights into the behavioural origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias — an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. A number of alternative explanations has been offered for this phenomenon but the main debate focuses on whether it is caused by the behaviour of those supplying betting markets (bookmakers) or of the demand‐side agents in these markets (bettors) . This study analyses a new data source which offers detailed information for a large sample of recent UK horseraces on decision‐making behaviour within the parimutuel and the parallel bookmaker‐based betting markets. The results offer strong evidence for the existence of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias in bookmaker‐based markets, with a corresponding absence of such an effect in the parimutuel case. These results offer support for the view that the origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias lie principally in the decisions of bookmakers rather than in the decisions of bettors. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the past: Investigating the role of availability,outcome, and hindsight bias and close calls in visual pilots' weather‐related decision making

Past events, such as “close calls,” can provide valuable learning opportunities, especially in aviation, where learning from past errors could potentially help to avoid future incidents or accidents. This study investigated whether three cognitive biases (availability, outcome, and hindsight bias) could influence pilots' perceptions of past events, which in turn might influence their perception of events yet to occur. Study 1 found that pilots were influenced by the outcome of a flight when judging decision quality. Of particular interest was that pilots interpreted events that led to a close call very similarly to those that had positive outcomes, which may reinforce risky behaviour. However, although adequately powered, Study 1 found no evidence of availability bias: Exposure to one of four outcomes did not appear to influence later decisions. Study 2 found that having read a flight report, particularly if it ended in a crash, pilots consistently overestimated their likelihood of predicting the actual outcome, which may reduce any opportunity to learn. These findings suggest that two of the three cognitive biases explored in this study could influence a pilot's perception of past events in ways that may adversely affect how they make future decisions that in turn may affect flight safety.     

Monkey see,monkey do: The effect of social influence on selective‐exposure bias

Selective‐exposure bias refers to the tendency to predominantly seek out attitude‐consistent information and avoid attitude‐inconsistent information. Although researchers have proposed and tested several underlying psychological factors that might contribute to this tendency, the potential role of social influence has not been addressed. In the present research, we address this issue. In four experiments (total N = 645), participants’ selective‐exposure bias was significantly reduced when the bias was portrayed as non‐normative (vs. normative). In Experiment 4, we obtained evidence for the possibility that this social‐norm manipulation could result in effects on attitudes through information selection. Overall, this research contributes novel evidence for the effect of social influence on selective‐exposure bias.     

Cross‐national examination of the perpetrator–victim account estimation bias as a function of different types of accounts

In two cross‐national studies, we investigated the existence of a perpetrator–victim account estimation bias and how this bias can be reduced or eliminated when estimating the perpetrator's use of a mixed account; that is, an account in which the perpetrator not only apologizes but also explains mitigating and justifiable circumstances. Japanese and American participants took either the perspective of the perpetrator or the victim and estimated the likelihood of the perpetrator's use of each account. The results supported our hypothesis in both national samples. The implications of the bias and the role of the mixed account in reducing it are discussed.     

Laterality effects in the spinning dancer illusion: The viewing‐from‐above bias is only part of the story

The ‘silhouette illusion’, representing the silhouette of a female dancer pirouetting about her vertical axis, is a bistable stimulus created by Japanese web designer Nobuyuki Kayahara. Although the dancer can be perceived as spinning either clockwise or counterclockwise, the clockwise rotation is usually preferred. Troje and McAdam (i‐Perception, 2010, 1, 143) showed that this clockwise bias can be attributed to the tendency to assume a viewpoint from above rather than from below, given that the dancer is portrayed from a vantage point that is not perpendicular to the axis of rotation. Here, we tested whether another possible factor contributing to the observers’ interpretation of this bistable stimulus might be the tendency to perceive movements of the right rather than the left foot. We confirmed both the viewing‐from‐above bias and our hypothesis. The bias to perceive movements of the right leg might be a generalization to lower limbs of a perceptual frequency effect already observed for upper limbs. Such a perceptual and attentional bias towards the right hand/foot could account for the greater ability to predict the outcome of sport actions when observing right‐ rather than left‐limbed movements, and thus the left‐handers' and left‐footers' advantage observed in a variety of interactive sports.     

Early Positive Information Impacts Final Evaluations: No Deliberation‐Without‐Attention Effect and a Test of a Dynamic Judgment Model

Evaluation judgments were affected by information order and not by subsequent unconscious versus conscious deliberation. In three experiments, we examined the influence of early positive information on final evaluations of four objects. Based on a task analysis, we predicted primacy effects in judgments in a sequential data acquisition task. Thinking periods following presentation were used to manipulate conscious or unconscious processing. In all three studies, we found no effects of thinking manipulations but instead found reliable order effects. We developed and tested an online judgment model on the basis of the belief updating model of Hogarth and Einhorn. The model accounted for large proportion of the individual level variability, and model comparison tests supported the presence of a primacy effect. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Same‐gender and same‐race bias in assessment center ratings: A rating error approach to understanding subgroup differences

This study investigated leniency and similar‐to‐me bias as mechanisms underlying demographic subgroup differences among assessees in assessors’ initial dimension ratings from three assessment center (AC) simulation exercises used as part of high‐stakes promotional testing. It examined whether even small individual‐level effects can accumulate (i.e., “trickle‐up”) to produce larger subgroup‐level differences. Individual‐level analyses were conducted using cross‐classified multilevel modeling and conducted separately for each exercise. Results demonstrated weak evidence of leniency toward White assessees and similar‐to‐me bias among non‐White assessee–assessor pairs. Similar leniency was found toward female assessees, but no statistically significant effects were found for assessee or assessor gender or assessee–assessor gender similarity. Using traditional d effect size estimates, weak individual level assessee effects translated into small but consistent subgroup differences favoring White and female assessees. Generally small but less consistent subgroup differences indicated that non‐White and male assessors gave higher ratings. Moreover, analyses of overall promotion decisions indicate the absence of adverse impact. Findings from this AC provide some support for the “trickle‐up” effect, but the effect on subgroup differences is trivial. The results counter recent reviews of AC studies suggesting larger than previously assumed subgroup differences. Consequently, the findings demonstrate the importance of following established best practices when developing and implementing the AC method for selection purposes to minimize subgroup differences.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

American base‐rate neglect: It is not the math,but the context

We investigate cross‐cultural disparities in focalism bias through two studies of probability estimation. Using 60 American and 60 Chinese participants, Experiment 1 yields the standard finding that Americans manifest greater focalism bias by tending to neglect background probability base‐rates and to rely more heavily on obtained samples in estimating true probabilities, whereas Chinese participants show little tendency to ignore base‐rates. In Experiment 2, the phrasing of the probability‐estimation task is changed to bring base‐rates into the focus of the problem statement, again using a sample of 60 Americans and 60 Chinese. This allows us to test whether cross‐cultural differences result from a tendency to focus on the sample, and ignore ‘context’ (i.e., the background base‐rates), rather than simply a discrepancy in mathematical facility between the two groups. The results show far less base‐rate neglect for Americans, but essentially no change for Chinese (who always use base‐rate information, regardless of how presented). This outcome argues against the explanation that Americans are poorer Bayesians simply because they are weaker mathematicians. Implications are discussed.     

Syntactic Complexity Effects in Sentence Production: A Reply to MacDonald,Montag, and Gennari (2016)

In our article, “Syntactic complexity effects in sentence production” (Scontras, Badecker, Shank, Lim, & Fedorenko, 2015 ), we reported two elicited production experiments and argued that there is a cost associated with planning and uttering syntactically complex, object‐extracted structures that contain a non‐local syntactic dependency. MacDonald et al. ( 2016 ) have argued that the results of our investigation provide little new information on the topic. We disagree. Examining the production of subject versus object extractions in two constructions across two experimental paradigms—relative clauses in Experiment 1 and wh‐questions in Experiment 2—we found a strikingly similar pattern: reliable differences in latency and word durations, as well as in rates of disfluencies, signaling a greater cost associated with planning and uttering the syntactically more complex object extractions. MacDonald et al. reject that interpretation, namely that the differences we observed in the production of subject versus object extractions demonstrate asymmetric production difficulties. Here we address the concerns they raise by clarifying confusion and presenting novel experimental evidence in support of our original claims.     

A Below‐Average Effect with Respect to American Political Stereotypes on Warmth and Competence

The “above‐average effect” is the phenomenon that people tend to judge themselves above average on desirable traits. Based on social identity theory, we propose that a “below‐average effect” may arise when individuals rate themselves and the average ingroup member on traits stereotypically associated with the ingroup. In two studies, Republican and Democrat participants rated themselves and the average political ingroup member on possession of desirable traits related to warmth and competence. Current political stereotypes in America associate the former dimension with Democrats and the latter with Republicans. Consistent with our hypothesis, the above‐average effect was moderated by political group and dimension in interaction. In particular, Democrats rated themselves below the average Democrat on warmth and Republicans rated themselves below the average Republican on competence.     

Positioning theory as a discursive approach to understanding same‐sex intimate violence

This study focuses on same‐sex intimate violence, recognizing that violence in gay and lesbian relationships is as severe and prevalent as in heterosexual relationships. Positioning theory as a relational approach is used as an alternative to the dominant individual and structural accounts. Intimate violence is seen as produced through the assignment of rights and duties or positioning in couples' conversations. Two gay and two lesbian couples were interviewed. A basic discursive pattern was found from 25 accounts of episodes involving physical violence. Violence ensued only after the initiator of violence had claimed innocence or blamelessness and attributed guilt or blame on the receiver of violence. The findings are discussed in relation to the discursive production of power and violence.     

The effects of type of instruction,animacy cues,and dimensionality of objects on the shape bias in 3‐ to 6‐year‐old children

Robust evidence exists for the shape bias, or children's tendency to extend novel names and categorize objects more readily on the basis of shape than on other object features. However, issues remain about the conditions that affect the shape bias and its importance as a linguistic device. In this research, we examined how type of instruction (common noun naming, proper noun naming, same kind, and goes with), animacy of objects (animate, inanimate), and dimensionality of objects (two‐dimensional, three‐dimensional) affect the shape bias in 3‐ to 6‐year‐old children. Overall, all children showed strong use of the shape bias with categorization (same kind, goes with) instructions, the former in line with the shape‐as‐cue theory. Additionally, the shape bias was quite robust in the inanimate condition, regardless of type of instruction or dimensionality of objects. However, in the animate condition, a proper noun naming instruction coupled with an animate object cue reduced the shape bias across both two‐ and three‐dimensional objects. Implications of these findings are presented.

Highlights

• This study assessed the “shape bias,” a linguistic strategy young children routinely use when confronted with the task of extending a novel name from one object to another.
• Novel name extension and categorization tasks were used in this study.
• Shape bias was affected by the type of instructions, animacy of objects, and dimensionality of objects.

     

From self‐disclosure to prosocial behaviour: Feedback as a moderator

Prosocial behaviours and their correlates have been extensively studied; however, few studies have examined the linkage between self‐disclosure and prosocial behaviours. Three studies were conducted aimed at examining the relationship between self‐disclosure and prosocial tendencies, as well as the moderating role of feedback from the help provider's perspective. We hypothesized that participants' self‐disclosure was positively associated with his/her prosocial tendencies and that this association would be moderated by feedback received. The results generally support our hypotheses, and reveal that participants with higher levels of self‐disclosure tend to exhibit more prosocial tendencies (Studies 1 and 2), but this association was only true for those participants that received self‐disclosure feedback (Study 3). The present study suggests that, other than self‐disclosure, reciprocal feedback also plays an important role in promoting prosocial behaviours.     

“To‐be‐forgotten” statements become less true: Memory processes involved in selection and forgetting lead to truthfulness changes of ambiguous sentences

What happens when people try to forget something? What are the consequences of instructing people to intentionally forget a sentence? Recent studies employing the item‐method directed forgetting paradigm have shown that to‐be‐forgotten (TBF) items are, in a subsequent task, emotionally devaluated relative to to‐be‐remembered (TBR) items, an aftereffect of memory selection (Vivas, Marful, Panagiotidou & Bajo, 2016). As such, distractor devaluation by attentional selection generalizes to memory selection. In this study, we use the item‐method directed forgetting paradigm to test the effects of memory selection and inhibition on truth judgments of ambiguous sentences. We expected the relative standing of an item in the task (i.e., whether it was instructed to be remembered or forgotten) to affect the truthfulness value of that item, making TBF items less valid/truthful than TBR items. As predicted, ambiguous sentences associated with a “Forget” cue were subsequently judged as less true than sentences associated with a “Remember” cue, suggesting that instructions to intentionally forget a statement can produce changes in the validity/truthfulness of that statement. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show an influence of memory processes involved in selection and forgetting on the perceived truthfulness of sentences.