Confucian Order at the Edge of Chaos: The Science of Complexity and Ancient Wisdom

Many academics extol chaos theory and the science of complexity as significant scientific advances with application in such diverse fields as biology, anthropology, economics, and history. In this paper we focus our attention on structure-within-chaos and the dynamic self-organization of complex systems in the context of social philosophy. Although the modern formulation of the science of complexity has developed out of late-twentieth-century physics and computational mathematics, its roots may extend much deeper into classical thinking. We argue here that the essential ideas and predictions of the science of complexity are found within the social ordering principle of li (the rites) in Confucius's Analects .     

基于关系-表征复杂性模型的数学应用题表征能力测验

基于关系-表征复杂性模型,从每道应用题涉及集合关系的嵌套程度角度事前分析其关系复杂性,编制了难度序列变化的应用题测验,以考察问题表征能力。采用该测验测查了四至七年级共165名学生,考察事前分析的合理性及表征水平随年龄的变化。结果表明:(1)事前分析对两个事后难度指标(错误率和Rasch模型分析的任务难度)的解释率分别为73.7%、78.7%;该测验得分与测查思维水平层次变化的SOLO分类测验上的得分有较高相关(r=0.65)。(2)四年级的应用题表征水平显著低于五、六、七年级,其他三个年级差异不显著;而且随着问题关系复杂性的增加,年级差异增大。这说明基于关系-表征复杂性模型的事前分析是合理的,据此编制的测验能够测查表征水平随年龄的变化。     

Complexity science: A framework for psychotherapy integration

The paradigm of complexity science provides a new way to address the problem of psychotherapy integration and allows us to bypass the various shortcomings of the linear-interventionist perspective. Nine criteria are outlined, which should be satisfied by any integrative approach to psychotherapy: (a) the use of complexity science to provide a meta-theoretical and generic understanding of change processes (from neuronal to social system levels); (b) a comprehensive and formalised modelling of change processes and personality development; (c) an integrative method of case formulation; (d) the ability to understand a variety of techniques in terms of basic change principles; (e) criteria to guide microdecisions; (f) the application of data-driven feedback and real-time monitoring of change dynamics; (g) standardised assessment of outcomes in naturalistic settings; (h) guidelines for training; and (i) strategies that are well-suited to science–practice integration. Using these criteria as a framework for evaluation, one may grasp the potential of complexity science to drive innovation in the pursuit of psychotherapy integration.     

复杂性理论在心理学研究中的价值

复杂性哲学和复杂性研究为科学研究开辟了一条蹊径,使得人们能够以一种全新的、复杂性的视角来重新认识他们所“熟知、熟悉”的人类世界。复杂性理论的世界观为当前心理学的转向提供了理论支持,而且它的一些具体的研究方法如“黑箱”的方法以及功能模拟方法已经在心理学研究中体现出其价值。可以说,复杂性理论为心理学摆脱当前困境及实现整合开启了一扇光明之门。     

平衡秤任务复杂性的事前与事后分析

任务复杂性的分析和评估是心理测量学和认知心理学都非常关注的重要主题。以264名小学四、五、六年级儿童为被试,平衡秤任务为研究材料,考察任务在未旋转时第一个因素上的载荷(事后分析)能否作为评价任务复杂性的一个指标,以及关系-表征复杂性模型对平衡秤任务复杂性分析(事前分析)的有效性两个问题。结果表明:平衡秤任务施测后所得所有项目的因素载荷与其难度之间没有显著正相关,即因素载荷的高低没有反映平衡秤任务复杂性的大小;而基于关系-表征复杂性模型对任务的事前分析所确定的任务等级复杂性和知识经验对任务难度的解释率为95.0%,可见,关系-表征复杂性模型提供的分析任务复杂性的思路和方法是较为合理的。     

Automated Integrative Complexity

Integrative complexity is a conceptually unique and very popular measurement of the complexity of human thought. We believe, however, that it is currently being underutilized because it takes quite a bit of time to score. More time‐efficient computer‐based measurements of complexity that are currently available are correlated with integrative complexity at fairly low levels. To help fill in this gap, we developed a novel automated integrative complexity system designed specifically from the integrative complexity theoretical framework. This new automated IC system achieved an alpha of .72 on the standard integrative complexity coding test. In addition, across nine datasets covering over 1,300 paragraphs, this new automated system consistently showed modest relationships with human‐scored integrative complexity (average alpha = .62; average r = .46). Further analyses revealed that this relationship consistently remained significant when controlling for superficial markers of complexity and that the new system accounted for both the differentiation and integration components of integrative complexity. Although the overlap between the automated and human‐scored systems is only modest (and thus suggests the continued usefulness of human scoring), it nonetheless provides the best automated integrative complexity measurement to date.     

Complexity of categorical syllogisms: An integration of two metrics

The complexity of categorical syllogisms was assessed using the relational complexity metric, which is based on the number of entities that are related in a single cognitive representation. This was compared with number of mental models in an experiment in which adult participants solved all 64 syllogisms. Both metrics accounted for similarly large proportions of the variance, showing that complexity depends on the number of categories that are related in a representation of the combined premises, whether represented in multiple mental models, or by a single model. This obviates the difficulty with mental models theory due to equivocal evidence for construction of more than one mental model. The “no valid conclusion” response was used for complex syllogisms that had valid conclusions. The results are interpreted as showing that the relational complexity metric can be applied to syllogistic reasoning, and can be integrated with mental models theory, which together account for a wide range of cognitive performances.     

Integrative Complexity Coding Raises Integratively Complex Issues

Conway, Conway, Gornick, and Houck (2014) report a major effort to automate integrative complexity coding. Judging this effort requires researchers to be more explicit in articulating key methodological assumptions about the coding process and theoretical assumptions about the construct. Unresolved issues include: (1) when, and on what basis, we should attribute divergences between human coders and algorithms to overestimations or underestimations by one or the other approach; and (2) to what extent second‐generation algorithms can yield Pareto improvements that reduce errors of both underestimation and overestimation. Further progress in developing natural language processing measures of this cognitive style will require sharper definitions of target constructs: in particular, different types of differentiation (dialectical and elaborative) and integration (hierarchical and flexible) and clearer guidelines for factoring context into assessments.     

Complexity of interruptions: Evidence supporting a non-interruption-based theory

Interruptions are known to be pervasive and harmful for concentration. It is also known that many factors can influence their effect, such as the complexity of the interrupting task. Less, however, is known about the processes underlying the resumption of the primary task, especially if the interrupting task is complex. Many hypotheses have been proposed but, as yet, it has not been possible to distinguish between their various qualities. In the current study, we carried out two experiments in which we manipulated the complexity of the interrupting task (either simple or complex) and the time between the end of the interrupting task and the resumption of the primary task (i.e., a break). Results showed that complex interrupting tasks led to longer resumption lags (RL) when there was no break, as has already been shown many times. However, while RL after simple interrupting tasks did not change as the break before resumption lengthened up to 1,500 ms, those after complex interrupting tasks decreased. Moreover, after a break of 3,000 ms, RL were longer overall. These results can only support the hypothesis based on task-switching theories, but not hypotheses derived from interruption-based models. Our findings therefore provide empirical evidence in support of explanations of complexity effects and the implications for research and application are discussed.     

The Functional Complexity of Scientific Evidence

This article sketches the main features of traditional philosophical models of evidence, indicating idealizations in such models that it regards as doing more harm than good. It then proceeds to elaborate on an alternative model of evidence that is functionalist, complex, dynamic, and contextual, a view the author calls dynamic evidential functionalism (DEF). This alternative builds on insights from philosophy of scientific practice, Kuhnian philosophy of science, pragmatist epistemology, philosophy of experimentation, and functionalist philosophy of mind. Along the way, the article raises concerns about the total evidence condition, requirements of certainty or incorrigibility on evidence, and accounts that restrict the type of things that can serve as evidence (to, for example, sense data, facts about particulars). DEF can also help us see the special value of novel predictions and experiments as evidence, as well as help us think about how to critically evaluate the putative evidence to determine whether it is evidence.     

问题解决中图式与策略的关系:来自表征复杂性模型的说明

采用口语报告法收集了26名小学三年级儿童解决两道复杂的算术应用题时的口语报告和作业资料,探讨了问题解决中图式与策略的关系。结果发现,对二者关系的解释要以问题表征复杂性为中介：如果被试的关系图式水平较高,表征复杂性(特别是表征深度)也会较大,相应会选择领域专门性更强的快捷策略;如果缺乏必需的关系图式。表征深度就降低,甚至不能正确表征问题,这时只好使用常规策略甚至错误策略。这个结论适用于有多种表征和解题方式的问题中。     

基于概念复杂度的加工容量观

探讨了一个认知科学的概念——容量,主要是介绍一种基于概念维度的加工容量观.这种观点认为加工容量最好以进入某一特定运算过程的独立维度来定义,容量的增长意味着可以表征更多的维度,而概念的组块与分割是常用的表征策略.个体差异通过表征的清晰度和有效性的差异来表现,而认知的发展则是成熟与经验相互作用的结果.     

Automated Integrative Complexity: Current Challenges and Future Directions

Automating integrative complexity is fraught with many challenges. To address these challenges, we discuss the tension between a specificity approach and a more flexible multiple‐pass approach, the multifaceted nature of the complexity construct, the gold standard for complexity measurement, the difficulty of human scoring and its consequences for automation, and some ways forward for creating the best complexity measurements. In so doing, we present new data demonstrating (1) initial evidence for the validity of a new automated system for measuring two different forms of complexity (elaborative and dialectical), (2) the danger of constructing measurements in a purely ad hoc fashion that ignores prospective testing, (3) human‐to‐computer correspondence is in part a function of human‐to‐human correspondence, (4) human‐to‐computer correspondence increases systematically as one uses tests with larger units of analysis, and (5) the lack of correspondence of different systems (both human and automated) may occur in part because they were designed for different units of analysis.     

个体认知方式与材料复杂性对视空间工作记忆的影响

采用计算机呈现的Corsi积木点击任务,探讨了不同认知方式个体对材料的路径、结构和数量复杂性不同的视空间工作记忆的广度。研究结果表明：（1）场独立性认知方式是影响视空间工作记忆广度的一个重要的个别差异变量,在路径复杂或呈现的材料结构随机的条件下,场独立者的视空间工作记忆广度明显高于场依存者;（2）材料呈现的路径、数量是影响视空间记忆广度的重要因素,在路径简单或数量少的情况下被试的视空间记忆广度要明显得高     

认知复杂性与意识水平:Zelazo理论述评

Zelazo等人提出的认知复杂性和控制理论、意识水平模型认为可在问题解决框架内理解执行功能,且执行功能的变化可根据儿童形成和使用的最大规则复杂性的变化来描述,而规则复杂性的变化可根据儿童意识水平的变化来解释。Zelazo的理论提出后受到不少研究者的关注,但也存在一些问题和不足。     

Problematisations of Complexity: On the Notion and Production of Diverse Complexities in Healthcare Interventions and Evaluations

Within the literature on the evaluation of health (policy) interventions, complexity is a much-debated issue. In particular, many claim that so-called ‘complex interventions’ pose different challenges to evaluation studies than apparently ‘simple interventions’ do. Distinct ways of doing evaluation entail particular ontologies and epistemologies of complexity. They differ in terms of whether they define complexity as a quantitative trait of interventions, whether they see evaluation as part of or outside the intervention, and whether complexity can be regarded as an emergent property of the intervention and its evaluation. In practice, evaluators and commissioners of large health care improvement programmes rely on different, sometimes contradictory, repertoires about what it means to conduct a ‘good’ evaluation. This is an ongoing matter negotiated between and among commissioners, researchers, and—sometimes—programme managers. In particular, notions of evaluability, usefulness and distance/independence are problematised in different ways and with diverse consequences, which, in turn, produce other notions and layers of complexity such as temporal, institutional and affective complexities. When (social science) researchers claim that one method or another is better able to grasp complexity, they elide the issue that any methodological choice emphasises some complexities and lets others fade into the background. Analysing the practicalities and emotions involved in evaluation studies opens up the notion of complexity to analytical scrutiny, and suggests a basis for co-theorising between biomedical, public health and social scientists (including Science and Technology Studies scholars).     

Early Communications in the War Against Terrorism: An Integrative Complexity Analysis

Integrative complexity reflects the degree to which the source of a communication perceives several dimensions and points of view relevant to the topic (differentiation) and the degree to which such characteristics are seen as related to each other (integration). During international crises, bilateral decreases in the integrative complexity of communications frequently precede the outbreak of war; a unilateral decrease reliably precedes surprise strategic attacks. In the current study, complexity was scored in the messages of selected leaders from before to approximately a month after the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. Even this limited database replicated some of the complexity patterns found previously, as well as showing some novel characteristics. This was the first application of the method to hostilities other than inter–nation or civil wars.     

Counselor Cognitive Complexity: Correlating and Comparing the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator With the Role Category Questionnaire

This study examined personality types and cognitive complexity levels in counseling trainees. Data from graduate‐level counseling students were collected (N = 74). Cognitive complexity levels were measured using the Role Category Questionnaire (RCQ) and personality types were measured using the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator. Results showed that perceiving types tended to perform better on the RCQ than judging types, and that those who were highly differentiated in all preferences overall tended to score higher on the RCQ. These findings have implications for employment and career counselors and their clients who are, or aspire to be, in the helping profession.