Loss aversion in the eye and in the heart: The autonomic nervous system's responses to losses

The common view in psychology and neuroscience is that losses loom larger than gains, leading to a negativity bias in behavioral responses and Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) activation. However, evidence has accumulated that in decisions under risk and uncertainty individuals often impart similar weights to negative and positive outcomes. We examine the role of the ANS in decisions under uncertainty, and its consistency with the behavioral responses. In three studies, we show that losses lead to heightened autonomic responses, compared to equivalent gains (as indicated by pupil dilation and increased heart rate) even in situations where the average decision maker exhibits no loss aversion. Moreover, in the studied tasks autonomic responses were not associated with risk taking propensities. These results are interpreted by the hypothesis that losses signal the subjective importance of global outcome patterns. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Decision Strategy on Deciding to Defer Choice

Recent research has examined consumer decision making when the option of not choosing any of the alternatives is also provided. The findings from this research suggest that the decision to defer choice is sensitive to the uncertainty of choosing the most preferred option from the set of alternatives provided. Building on this research, the author tests whether the decision to defer choice is also influenced by task variables that influence decision uncertainty. In the first experiment, this proposition is tested for choice problems in which information on three relatively equally attractive alternatives is presented either sequentially or simultaneously. As predicted, the preference for the defer-choice option was greater when the three alternatives were presented simultaneously. A second study forced subjects into using one of four decision strategies in order to choose between two non-dominated alternatives. The preference for the no-choice option was found to be higher when the rule required explicit attribute tradeoffs and lower when it simplified choice. These results suggest that choice uncertainty is influenced by the decision strategy used to determine the preference among alternatives. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the results for marketers' communication strategies.     

Predicting Affective Responses to Unexpected Outcomes

In decisions under uncertainty, decision makers confront two uncertainties: the uncertain linkage between actions and outcomes and the uncertain linkage between these outcomes and his or her affective responses to them. The two studies reported here examine affective responses to expected and unexpected outcomes in various settings. In Study 1, a scenario-based laboratory experiment (N = 149), we examined subjects' predicted responses to a range of outcomes, as a function of how surprising the outcome was. Study 2, a field study (N = 127), involved the expectations of bowlers about their scores in an upcoming game and about their responses to various outcomes at, above, and below expectations. We also measured actual affective reactions after the bowlers had completed their games. Findings suggest that subjects both expect and experience a loss-averse, expectation-based value function broadly of the Prospect Theory type. They also anticipate, and experience, an amplifying effect of outcome surprise, though they underestimate its size. We argue that such underestimation, together with overtight prediction ranges, may expose subjects to much larger affective variation with outcome variability than they anticipate.     

Two experiments on the relation between psychoticism and response uncertainty in normal subjects

Previous studies have suggested that schizophrenics are affected by response uncertainty to a greater degree than normals or other psychiatric groups. Two studies examined whether a similar pattern of performance would be produced in normal Ss scoring high on questionnaire measures presumed to measure psychotic predisposition. The Psychoticism (P) scales from the EPQ and the unpublished PEN Inventory were employed; and response uncertainty was varied using a card-sorting procedure. In Experiment 1 males were more affected by increases in response uncertainty than females, but there was no difference between Ss scoring high and low on the P scales. Experiment 2 included a condition in which guide-cards were randomly reordered between trials. There was a highly significant tendency for Ss scoring high on the PEN P scale to be more affected by response uncertainty in this experiment. Again males were more influenced by uncertainty than females, but this was due largely to their performance under the condition where guide-cards were varied. Ss high on EPQ P also showed decremental performance under this condition. The data provided partial support for the validity of the P scales, particularly the PEN version of the scale, as indices of schizophrenic predisposition.     

Impulsive motor behavior: effects of personality and goal salience

This experiment used a circle tracing paradigm to extend our recent theoretical development concerning the contributions of extraversion and neuroticism to impulsive performance on continuous motor tasks. Subjects (N = 137) completed the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire and were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 circle conditions: The goal condition provided subjects with a salient behavioral end point for their tracings, whereas the no-goal condition promoted behavioral uncertainty. In both conditions, Ss were asked to trace the circle under neutral and inhibition instructions. Using Gray's impulsivity and anxiety dimensions to group subjects, impulsive subjects under inhibition instructions displayed significantly faster tracing speed than nonimpulsive subjects in the presence of a salient goal, whereas anxious subjects appeared behaviorally impulsive in a situation promoting uncertainty and response conflict. Conceptualizing impulsivity and anxiety in terms of extraversion and neuroticism, with impulsive Ss as neurotic extraverts and anxious Ss as neurotic-introverts, it is proposed that Ss' level of extraversion determines the type of stimuli to which they are responsive, and that level of neuroticism influences the magnitude of this reaction.     

Mice and rats fail to integrate exogenous timing noise into their time-based decisions

Endogenous timing uncertainty results in variability in time-based judgments. In many timing tasks, animals need to incorporate their level of endogenous timing uncertainty into their decisions in order to maximize the reward rate. Although animals have been shown to adopt such optimal behavioral strategies in time-based decisions, whether they can optimize their behavior under exogenous noise is an open question. In this study, we tested mice and rats in a task that required them to space their responses for a minimum duration (DRL task) in different task conditions. In one condition, the minimum wait time was fixed, whereas in other conditions minimum wait time was a Gaussian random variable. Although reward maximization entailed waiting longer with added exogenous timing variability, results indicated that both mice and rats became more impulsive and deviated from optimality with increasing levels of exogenous noise. We introduce a reward-rate-dependent sampling function to SET to account for optimal performance in noiseless and suboptimal performance in noisy environments.     

Make‐or‐Break: Chasing Risky Goals or Settling for Safe Rewards?

Humans regularly pursue activities characterized by dramatic success or failure outcomes where, critically, the chances of success depend on the time invested working toward it. How should people allocate time between such make‐or‐break challenges and safe alternatives, where rewards are more predictable (e.g., linear) functions of performance? We present a formal framework for studying time allocation between these two types of activities, and we explore optimal behavior in both one‐shot and dynamic versions of the problem. In the one‐shot version, we illustrate striking discontinuities in the optimal time allocation policy as we gradually change the parameters of the decision‐making problem. In the dynamic version, we formulate the optimal strategy—defined by a giving‐up threshold—which adaptively dictates when people should stop pursuing the make‐or‐break goal. We then show that this strategy is computationally inaccessible for humans, and we explore boundedly rational alternatives. We compare the performance of the optimal model against (a) a myopic giving‐up threshold that is easier to compute, and even simpler heuristic strategies that either (b) only decide whether or not to start pursuing the goal and never give up or (c) consider giving up at a fixed number of control points. Comparing strategies across environments, we investigate the cost and behavioral implications of sidestepping the computational burden of full rationality.     

Iowa Gambling Task Modified for Military Domain

One key component of optimal military decision making is that the decision maker demonstrates reinforcement learning. The modification of psychological tasks gives insight into understanding how to effectively train military decision makers and how experienced decision makers arrive at optimal or near optimal decisions. We developed a task modeled after the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to measure military decision making performance. This new task focuses on high stakes and uncertain environments particular to military decision making conditions. Thirty-four U.S. military officers from all branches of service completed the tasks yielding decision data for validation. The new task retains essential characteristics of the foundational task and gives insight into reinforcement learning of military decision makers. Results indicate that the additional metric of regret defines higher performance at a trial-by-trial level, and clustering by multiple metrics defines high performance groups.     

专家和新手不确定决策认知过程的比较研究

本研究将风险投资决策作为不确定决策任务,采用专家-新手比较研究范型,通过出声思维法和访谈法,探讨了专家和新手不确定决策认知过程的差异。研究发现,这种差异体现在专家和新手所拥有的关于决策任务的认识和观念、决策信息选择、推理过程和决策策略等方面。     

Numerical discrimination is mediated by neural coding variation

One foundation of numerical cognition is that discrimination accuracy depends on the proportional difference between compared values, closely following the Weber–Fechner discrimination law. Performance in non-symbolic numerical discrimination is used to calculate individual Weber fraction, a measure of relative acuity of the approximate number system (ANS). Individual Weber fraction is linked to symbolic arithmetic skills and long-term educational and economic outcomes. The present findings suggest that numerical discrimination performance depends on both the proportional difference and absolute value, deviating from the Weber–Fechner law. The effect of absolute value is predicted via computational model based on the neural correlates of numerical perception. Specifically, that the neural coding “noise” varies across corresponding numerosities. A computational model using firing rate variation based on neural data demonstrates a significant interaction between ratio difference and absolute value in predicting numerical discriminability. We find that both behavioral and computational data show an interaction between ratio difference and absolute value on numerical discrimination accuracy. These results further suggest a reexamination of the mechanisms involved in non-symbolic numerical discrimination, how researchers may measure individual performance, and what outcomes performance may predict.     

决策风格的理论发展及建构：基于信息加工视角

决策风格是人们在决策中表现出来的习惯性或独特的行为模式, 对决策、管理等领域均有重要影响。近年兴起的决策风格理论主要基于个体信息加工策略, 如基于双加工理论和基于后悔情绪的决策风格模型等。决策风格对个体决策的影响表现在决策策略与偏差、情绪和无意识加工等方面。该领域在诸如决策风格的主要理论、测量工具和理论检验等方面亦取得积极进展, 未来研究方向应注意基于双加工理论和进化心理学建构决策风格理论。     

Self-assessment and task performance

The present study tested the idea that the amount of effort expended in task performance is a function of the amount of uncertainty in one's ability level the resulting outcomes are expected to reduce. Two determinants of expected uncertainty reduction were manipulated: prior uncertainty about one's ability level and the diagnosticity of the task. Subjects first performed an initial task and then received fictitious feedback to manipulate their prior uncertainty. To induce low uncertainty, the feedback implied that the subjects are highly likely to have either low, intermediate, or a high level of ability. To induce high uncertainty, the feedback implied that the various ability levels were equally probable. Subjects then performed a task whose perceived diagnosticity regarding the ability under consideration was varied. As expected, subjects who were highly uncertain about their ability level performed better than subjects who were relatively certain they possessed either low, intermediate, or a high level of ability. Performance also improved with task diagnosticity, and the effect of task diagnosticity on performance was more pronounced when prior uncertainty was high than when it was low. Past research on the relationship between prior feedback and subsequent performance was discussed in light of the present results and a self-assessment model of achievement behavior.     

Decision making, movement planning and statistical decision theory

We discuss behavioral studies directed at understanding how probability information is represented in motor and economic tasks. By formulating the behavioral tasks in the language of statistical decision theory, we can compare performance in equivalent tasks in different domains. Subjects in traditional economic decision-making tasks often misrepresent the probability of rare events and typically fail to maximize expected gain. By contrast, subjects in mathematically equivalent movement tasks often choose movement strategies that come close to maximizing expected gain. We discuss the implications of these different outcomes, noting the evident differences between the source of uncertainty and how information about uncertainty is acquired in motor and economic tasks.     

Information Processing and Decision-Making in Pathological Worriers and their Potential Role in Mechanisms of Generalized Anxiety Disorder

Systematic information processing and decision-making under uncertainty are key constructs of new conceptions explaining the severity of pathological worry. The current study attempted to analyze their usefulness in subclinical and clinical groups. In the first phase of the study (N = 251) participants were examined with the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (PSWQ), a GP consultationrelated survey, and a screening survey for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). In the second phase (N = 220), the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, the PSWQ, and tasks measuring systematic information processing (SIP) versus heuristic reasoning (HR) were applied. In the third phase (N = 60), GAD (n = 30) and healthy control (n = 30) groups were examined with the above methods and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). In the low risk group, a relationship between mood and the representativeness heuristic (ρ = 0.50), as well as anchoring and adjustment heuristic (anxiety-related stimuli) was found (ρ = −0.53). In the GAD group, significant correlations between the PSWQ score, the IGT loss avoidance score (ρ = 0.40), and total IGT score (ρ = 0.48) were found. The results did not confirm a particular usefulness of the systematic/heuristic information processing construct in subclinical and clinical groups. Theory-consistent results were rather found in the nonclinical groups. Nevertheless, the data revealed some interesting findings supporting potential explanatory power of some theoretical models.     

应激对风险和社会决策的影响

应激是有机体在受到真实或者潜在的威胁刺激时所表现出来的全身性非特异性反应, 伴随着紧张和焦虑的心理体验, 交感神经系统的兴奋, 糖皮质激素分泌的增多以及脑干−边缘系统−前额叶神经环路的改变。应激对个体在风险决策行为中的风险寻求和风险回避倾向, 社会决策行为中的利己和利他倾向都会产生重要影响。策略使用异常、习惯化和自动化反应增强、反馈学习过程以及奖惩敏感性的改变是应激影响决策行为的认知基础; 应激激素的分泌, 及杏仁核、前额叶等在决策过程发挥重要作用的脑区活动的改变则为应激作用于决策行为的神经基础。未来研究应重点关注：应激的个体差异与应激对决策影响效应多样性的关系; 综合多种指标对应激进行测量; 考察应激的时序效应; 揭示个体的最佳应激水平; 加强对慢性应激影响决策以及应激对决策影响效应可逆性的研究; 揭示应激影响决策的神经机制。     

Developmental changes in children's understanding of future likelihood and uncertainty

Two measures assessed 4-10-year-olds’ and adults’ (N = 201) understanding of future likelihood and uncertainty. In one task, participants sequenced sets of event pictures varying by one physical dimension according to increasing future likelihood. In a separate task, participants rated characters’ thoughts about the likelihood of future events, their emotions, and their decisions in indeterminate social situations. Results showed significant development between ages 4 and 10 in seriating events according to future likelihood and in selecting thought and emotion ratings indicative of future uncertainty. Higher performance on the future likelihood ordering task correlated with greater understanding of future uncertainty in thought, emotion, and decision judgments. Females judged future events to be more uncertain than males.     

Question-Asking in Same- and Opposite-Sex Initial Interactions The Effects of Anticipated Future Interaction

The present analysis examined interlocutors’ question-asking under high, moderate, and low levels of anticipated future interaction. Anticipated future interaction with another is presumed to increase persons'motivation to reduce their uncertainty. Prior to conversation, for example, observers engage in higher levels of information-seeking when they expect to meet the target. However, examination of subjects’ use of question-asking strategies suggested this effect does not extend to ongoing interaction. Instead, highest levels of mutual interrogation occurred at moderate levels of anticipated future interaction, in dyads required to negotiate a second encounter. The extent to which interlocutors control subsequent interaction has not been previously identified as a determinant of either uncertainty or uncertainty reduction. Such increased question-asking may be a function of actors’ desire to avoid negative conversational outcomes, a desire that becomes especially salient when actors are allowed to select their social partners.     

Signal-detection models for multidimensional stimuli: Probability distributions and combination rules

Probabilistic independence among multiple random variables (e.g., among the outputs of multiple spatial-frequency channels) has been invoked to explain two effects found with many kinds of stimuli: increments in detection performance due to “probability summation” and decrements in detection and identification performance due to “extrinsic uncertainty.” Quantitative predictions of such effects, however, depend on the precise assumptions. Here we calculate predictions from multidimensional signal-detection theory assuming any of several different probability distributions characterizing the random variables (including two-state, Gaussian, exponential, and double-exponential distributions) and either of two rules for combining the multiple random variables into a single decision variable (taking the maximum or summing them). In general, the probability distributions predicting shallower ROC curves predict greater increments due to summation but smaller decrements due to extrinsic uncertainty. Some probability distributions yield steep-enough ROC curves to actually predict decrements due to summation in blocked-summation experiments. Probability distribution matters much less for intermixed-summation than for blocked-summation predictions. Of the two combination rules, the sum-of-outputs rule usually predicts both greater increments due to summation and greater decrements due to extrinsic uncertainty. Put another way, of the two combination rules, the sum-of-outputs rule usually predicts better performance on the compound stimulus under any condition but worse performance on simple stimuli under intermixed conditions.     

A qualitative analysis of strategies for managing suicide-related events during deployment from the perspective of Army behavioral health providers,chaplains, and leaders

The purpose of this qualitative study was to investigate the use of strategies for managing suicide-related events (SREs; i.e., suicide deaths, suicide attempts, and suicidal ideation with a plan and intent to die) during deployment from the perspective of Army decision makers: behavioral health providers (BHPs), chaplains, and leaders. A total of 76 Army personnel participated in individual interviews or focus groups. Participants identified unit watch, weapon removal, medical evacuations, and debriefings as common strategies used to manage SREs in deployed settings. Many of these strategies were highlighted as short-term solutions only. Participants also underscored the importance of unit cohesion and communication among leaders, BHPs, and chaplains to effectively manage SREs. The need for structured guidelines for successfully managing SREs in deployed settings is discussed.     

Effects of information accuracy and volume on decision making

Recent advances in information technology have resulted in increasingly complex work environments. Much of the complexity is due to a deluge of information available across networks (Gleick, 2011) and unknown reliability, which introduces additional uncertainty (Platt & Huettel, 2008). Understanding the performance characteristics of human information processing for optimal decision making under such conditions of data abundance and uncertainty is critical in complex networked information environments, such as military operations. One focus of the United States military is providing troops with the richness of information formally reserved for higher echelons (Bawden & Robinson, 2009). However, this effort risks cognitive overload, where too much information can result in impaired performance. The present study examined human decision making under varying levels of cognitive load and source reliability. Participants determined the reliability of two information sources and decided how to use them to minimize cognitive load and improve performance in a visual search task. Unbeknownst to participants, one source provided highly accurate information and one provided moderately accurate information. Results showed that participants had more trust in the more accurate than the less accurate source, and decision making accuracy decreased as cognitive load increased. When cognitive load was highest, participants were more accurate on trials with the more accurate source. Thus, the more accurate source facilitated better performance, whether through better intel or through participants offloading some of the cognitive load to the reliable source.