The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years post-release. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism post-release and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature.     

The relationship between psychometric test scores and reconviction in sexual offenders undertaking treatment

The evidence is mixed regarding the utility of psychometric test scores in prediction of the likelihood of sexual reoffending. This paper summarizes the research examining the relationship between psychometric measures and sexual recidivism, before detailing the findings of four large-scale studies in England and Wales, and comparing the findings of these studies to similar studies from other countries. The implications of the evidence to date are discussed, and recommendations are made for the future of psychometric testing as a way of determining risk of recidivism, dynamic risk factors, change over treatment, and the efficacy of rehabilitative programs.     

Die Validit?t dynamisch-ver?nderbarer Risikofaktoren bei der Vorhersage einschl?giger R��ckf?lle p?dosexueller Straft?ter

The present study examines the predictive validity of dynamic risk factors for the prediction of sexual recidivism in a sample of pedosexual offenders (N?=?135) released from the Austrian prison system between 2002 and 2005. Static-99 was used to rate static risk factors and in order to measure dynamic risk factors Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 were applied. In addition to the demonstration of results about the interrater reliability the results about the predictive and incremental validity of the dynamic risk assessment are presented. After a mean follow-up period of 5½ years Static-99, Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 showed excellent interrater reliability and good predictive validity for the prediction of sexual recidivism. Furthermore, Stable-2007 showed better predictive accuracy than its predecessor and added incremental predictive validity beyond Static-99.     

Will They Do It Again? Predicting Sex-Offense Recidivism

This article reviews the empirical research on the prediction of reoffending among sexual offenders. The major predictors of sexual-offense recidivism are factors related to sexual deviance (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, previous sex crimes) and, to a lesser extent, criminal lifestyle (e.g., antisocial personality disorder, total number of prior offenses). The factors that predict general recidivism among sex offenders are the same as the factors that predict general recidivism among nonsexual criminals (e.g., juvenile delinquency, prior violent offenses). Given that there are special predictors of sexual recidivism, evaluators should consider separately the risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.     

The assessment of incarcerated sexual delinquents’ risk of recidivism

IntroductionThe present study examined the possibility of assessing the risk of sexual recidivism on the basis of static and dynamic factors.ObjectiveA comparison was carried out of detainees on the basis of their scores on a predictive scale of risk of recidivism, on their empathy towards the victim, on their attributive style, and on their self-esteem.MethodThree samples of detainees were compared: two samples of individuals guilty of sexual crime (one sample having committed the aggression towards adults, the second towards children under fifteen years of age) and a control group composed of non-sexual delinquents.ResultsResults showed that sexual offenders targeting children had a lower risk of recidivism than sexual offenders of adults. However, when considering only the recidivists, no difference was found in risk between the two populations.ConclusionIn conclusion, some of the dynamic factors that were analyzed could be retained to complete the static factors in predictive scales of risk of recidivism.     

De la prédiction à la compréhension : recension des dimensions psychologiques de la Statique-99

Although widely used in North America, actuarial risk assessment tools have been criticized for their inability to capture the causal dynamics leading to criminal recidivism. In this article, we present a conceptual framework for linking static, historical risk factors to the psychological vulnerabilities that are targeted in offender treatment. To illustrate this model, a literature review was conducted that identified the psychological dimensions that underlie the items of the Static-99, the most widely used actuarial scale for predicting sexual recidivism. Two key dimensions were identified: sexual criminality, indicative of sexual deviance and/or sexual preoccupation, and general criminality, indicative of antisocial traits and/or psychopathy.     

Jugendliche Sexualstraftäter: Spezialfälle der Prognoseerstellung?

This study compared a sample of 273 juvenile (aged 14 to under 18), 178 adolescent (aged 18 to under 21) and 273 adult (older than 20 years) male sex offenders modus operandi (or MO, the way in which they committed their offenses), frequency of recidivism and predicted recidivism via the static-99. In terms of the frequencies of the MO aspects we found that juveniles and adolescents differed significantly from adult sexual offenders. However, concerning the frequency of sexual violent behaviors, adolescents committed more severe offenses in contrast to the two other groups. The comparison of recidivism rates indicated that adolescent sexual offenders were significantly less likely to commit a new sexual offense, but were considerably more likely to commit a non-sexual violent offense compared to adult sexual offenders. For juvenile offenders, only few static-99 variables were predictive of future recidivism in comparison to the other groups, suggesting that the static-99 may only have a restricted utility in juvenile offenders. Further, juvenile offenders risk levels were found to fall primarily within the medium risk group making individual differentiation of potential risk difficult. It is suggested that additional predictors, which help to differentiate young sexual offenders must be investigated.     

Pornography use and sexual aggression: the impact of frequency and type of pornography use on recidivism among sexual offenders

In this study, we examined the unique contribution of pornography consumption to the longitudinal prediction of criminal recidivism in a sample of 341 child molesters. We specifically tested the hypothesis, based on predictions informed by the confluence model of sexual aggression that pornography will be a risk factor for recidivism only for those individuals classified as relatively high risk for re-offending. Pornography use (frequency and type) was assessed through self-report and recidivism was measured using data from a national database from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Indices of recidivism, which were assessed up to 15 years after release, included an overall criminal recidivism index, as well as subcategories focusing on violent (including sexual) recidivism and sexual recidivism alone. Results for both frequency and type of pornography use were generally consistent with our predictions. Most importantly, after controlling for general and specific risk factors for sexual aggression, pornography added significantly to the prediction of recidivism. Statistical interactions indicated that frequency of pornography use was primarily a risk factor for higher-risk offenders, when compared with lower-risk offenders, and that content of pornography (i.e., pornography containing deviant content) was a risk factor for all groups. The importance of conceptualizing particular risk factors (e.g., pornography), within the context of other individual characteristics is discussed.     

Zur rückfallprognostischen Bedeutung des Tatverhaltens bei Sexualdelinquenz

The study examined the possibility of predicting sexual recidivism within a period of 5 years in a sample of 612 male sex offenders by means of behavioural crime scene variables. A total of 20 variables were selected based on a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine combined predictive accuracy. Step-wise reverse logistic regression extracted 12 variables explaining 22% of total variance in sexual recidivism. The unweighted sum score of these variables showed considerable predictive power (AUC?=?0.76; r?=?0.34). Findings were robust not only for different subgroups of sexual offenders, but also when cross-validated on an independent sample. In addition, the unweighted sum score showed significant incremental validity above and beyond common risk measures [Static99, Sexual Violence Risk- (SVR-)20], both in the original and the cross-validation sample. Thus, the potential of crime scene analysis in predicting sexual recidivism has been clearly demonstrated. Future research should provide a more accurate access to psychologically meaningful interpretations of the risk immanent in crime scene actions by adapting risk scales to certain subgroups of perpetrators.     

Characterization and Prediction of Sexual and Nonsexual Recidivism Among Adjudicated Juvenile Sex Offenders

Estimating the risk of sexual recidivism for a juvenile sex offender is essential in order to protect public safety by identifying and evaluating high risk adolescents and to ensure the rights and welfare of juvenile offenders who will not likely reoffend. Empirically validated risk assessment methods are needed to aid in the classification and treatment of juvenile sex offenders. The present study utilized a dataset collected by Maricopa County, AZ, and aggregated by the National Juvenile Court Data Archive. The purpose of the study was to evaluate and characterize risk factors for juveniles who have been charged with a sexual offense in order to determine the predictive utility of these factors for subsequent offending, as well as offense trajectory, and to evaluate risk factors for nonsexual offenders who have committed crimes of various severities. The results of the present study show the strongest individual predictors of sexual recidivism to be prior nonsexual offending, prior sexual offending, hands‐off offending, offending against a child, younger school grade/age at time of initial offense, Asian or Hispanic ethnicity, and not attending school. A preliminary screening measure was developed from the seven positive risk factors, and ROC analysis produced an AUC indicating moderate predictive utility in discriminating between juvenile sex offenders who would sexually reoffend and those who would not. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Child versus peer/adult offenders: A critical review of the juvenile sex offender literature

Sexual offenses are serious crimes and it is believed that adolescents perpetrate 20% of all sexual assaults and 50% of all child sexual abuse (Barbaree & Marshall, 2006). To better understand the etiology of juvenile sexual offending, researchers have explored differences between those who offend children versus those who offend peers/adults. This paper critically reviewed 21 studies that compared juvenile sex offenders who abused children with those who abused peers/adults on a variety of variables including victim, offense, and offender characteristics; psychosocial variables; and predictors and rates of recidivism. Strengths and weaknesses of these studies as well as future directions for the literature are discussed. Common methodological limitations of victim-age based comparisons of juvenile sex offenders included inconsistent definitions, low-powered studies, lack of standardized measures, and recidivism data based solely on conviction rates. Overall, many inconsistent findings limit our ability to give overarching conclusions; however, the research does suggests that not only is it important to examine child and peer/adult offenders, but mixed offenders (i.e., offender with both child and peer victims) as a distinct group need to be included in comparisons as well.     

Assessing violence risk in Tarasoff situations: a fact-based model of inquiry.

Although significant advances in risk assessment research and practice have been made in recent years, there has not been any analysis in the professional literature regarding how and whether the emerging practice recommendations apply in Tarasoff-type situations. We suggest that, when faced with a Tarasoff-type situation, the appraisal of risk should be guided by a method that is primarily fact-based and deductive, rather than by the more inductive risk assessment approach for general violence recidivism, which is guided primarily by base rates and historical risk factors. We review the principles underlying a fact-based, or threat assessment, approach and outline six areas of inquiry that can guide the appraisal of risk: A-attitudes that support or facilitate violence, C-capacity, T-thresholds crossed, I-intent, O-other's reactions, and N-noncompliance with risk reduction interventions.     

Verläufe bei sexuellen Tötungen

This article summarizes main results of studies on forensic psychiatric court reports on 166 men who had been persecuted between 1963 and 1991 for a sexual offence leading to the death of the victim. Comparing perpetrators with a single victim and those with multiple victims we found similar results as in two previous studies with smaller samples: Multiple sexual homicide perpetrators showed more often sexual sadism and other paraphilias, as well as antisocial, schizoid and sadistic personality disorders. Follow-up data from the federal criminal records could be obtained for 139 offenders. Ninety perpetrators had been released after a mean detention of 12.2 years, whereas the 49 offenders who were still in prison or forensic psychiatric hospitals had been detained for a mean period of 20.6 years. The non-released offenders showed more often paraphilias as well as antisocial and sadistic personality disorders than the released perpetrators. Paraphilias and antisocial personality traits are empirically well proven risk factors for criminal recidivism with sexual reoffences. In addition, the non-released sexual homicide perpetrators had higher scores in all applied risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, Static-99). Among the released offenders only 1.1% (n=1) reoffended with a completed homicide and 2.2% (n=2) with attempted homicide. The recidivism rates with sexual and other violent reoffences in this sample of sexual homicide perpetrators were similar to those in a large meta-analysis on recidivism in sexual offenders by Hanson and Morton-Bourgon (4). Since well established risk factors had apparently been “used-up” for the decisions about release or non-release, in the follow-up data about the released offenders only age at the sexual homicide and age at the time of release were found as risk factors for recidivism with any violent (sexual or non-sexual) reoffence, i.e. the younger the offender at the time of the homicide and the younger at the time of release, the more likely is the risk of violent reoffending.     

Zur Altersabh?ngigkeit von Risikovariablen bei Sexualdelinquenz

Based on a sample of 612 male sex offenders, this study examined the latent dimensions of actuarial risk variables, their age-related development and their age-related relevance for the prediction of sexual recidivism within a follow-up period of 5 years. According to the work of Roberts et al. [25] 8 items from Static-99 and Risk Matrix 2000 were examined for their underlying factor structure. The result was a 3-factor solution, which accounted for 63% of the variance and largely replicated the previous findings by Roberts et al. [25]. Following these authors the three scales sexual deviance, dissociality and detachment were calculated from the risk variables and examined in detail. The analysis revealed an increase in sexually deviant personality traits with advancing age of the offenders at the beginning of the follow-up period. No age-related changes were observed in dissocial characteristics. Concerning the detachment scale a negative correlation with the offenders age was apparent. All three risk scales proved to be prognostically relevant in the total sample. On closer examination, however, only sexual deviance showed prognostic relevance in all age groups. In contrast, dissociality was only relevant for the prediction of sexual recidivism in the older offender groups and detachment only in the younger offender groups.     

Zur Validit?t des Prognoseinstruments ?Rückfallrisiko bei Sexualstraft?tern“

The Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders (RRS) procedure is an actuarial risk assessment tool designed to predict recidivism in sexual offenders released from prison. So far it is the only tool developed with a German sample and uses a combination of 11 static and dynamic risk markers. The goal of the current study was to test the predictive validity of the 3 RRS prognostic scores in a sample of 104 sexual offenders whose prison files and recidivism data were analysed after a mean period of 8 years after release from a German prison. The H-score of the RRS developed to assess the probability of reimprisonment showed moderate to good predictive power in relation to any new convictions, new convictions leading to a prison term and new convictions for an aggressive or sexual criminal offence. As expected it was not able to predict sexual recidivism which had a base rate of 8.7% in this sample. The S-score and the K-score of the RRS developed to predict this criterion, performed hardly better in this task. These scores showed moderate to good predictive validity only in the small subsample of extrafamilial sexual offenders.     

Neighborhood Risk Factors for Recidivism: For Whom do they Matter?

Justice‐involved people vary substantially in their risk of reoffending. To date, recidivism prediction and prevention efforts have largely focused on individual‐level factors like antisocial traits. Although a growing body of research has examined the role of residential contexts in predicting reoffending, results have been equivocal. One reason for mixed results may be that an individual’s susceptibility to contextual influence depends upon his or her accumulated risk of reoffending. Based on a sample of 2218 people on probation in San Francisco, California, this study draws on observational and secondary data to test the hypothesis that individual risk moderates the effect of neighborhood factors on recidivism. Results from survival analyses indicate that individual risk interacts with neighborhood concentrated disadvantage and disorder—and these factors increase recidivism among people relatively low in individual risk, but not those at higher risk. This is consistent with the disadvantage saturation perspective, raising the possibility that some people classified as low risk might not recidivate but for placement in disadvantaged and disorderly neighborhoods. Ultimately, residential contexts “matter” for lower risk people and may be useful to consider in efforts to prevent recidivism.     

Beyond sexual recidivism: A review of the sexual criminal career parameters of adult sex offenders

The current study claims that measures of sexual recidivism provide a distorted view of the criminal activity of adult sex offenders. To address this important limitation, the criminal career perspective is presented and key concepts are defined and described. The study also provides an up-to-date review of the scientific literature on various criminal career parameters of the sexual criminal activity of adult sex offenders. Hence, current empirical knowledge on the prevalence, age of onset, frequency, continuity, versatility, and desistance from sex offending is presented. The findings highlight the complexities of the sexual criminal career of adult sex offenders, and most importantly, its dynamic aspect, both of which are not captured by traditional measures of sexual recidivism. The review also underscores the importance of recognizing that sexual offending develops according to a series of stages, that, if not recognized, may lead to the underestimation of risk for some and over-estimation of risk for others. The review provides a framework to stimulate new areas of research as well as policy-development that is not limited to the identification of the “high-risk” convicted sex offenders.     

Evaluation and Applications of the Clinically Significant Change Method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version: Implications for Risk-Change Communication

We examined the use of the clinically significant change (CSC) method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), and its implications for risk communication, in a combined sample of 945 treated sexual offenders from three international settings, followed up for a minimum 5 years post-release. The reliable change (RC) index was used to identify thresholds of clinically meaningful change and to create four CSC groups (already okay, recovered, improved, unchanged) based on VRS-SO dynamic scores and amount of change made. Outcome analyses demonstrated important CSC-group differences in 5-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism. However, when baseline risk was controlled via Cox regression survival analysis, the pattern and magnitude of CSC-group differences in sexual and violent recidivism changed to suggest that observed variation in recidivism base rates could be at least partly explained by pre-existing group differences in risk level. Implications for communication of risk-change information and applications to clinical practice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Evaluation of the Reliability and Validity of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) in South African Context

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ: Loza, 2005) is a self-report questionnaire designed to assist with the prediction of violent and nonviolent recidivism among correctional populations. Use of scale could help in the assessment of risk and the identification of factors that could be addressed by programming or other intervention to reduce recidivism risk. Evidence for use of the SAQ in South African settings is needed. The SAQ was administered at two separate occasions and a week apart to a total of 125 male offenders in South Africa to evaluate its psychometric properties. Scores from the SAQ were reliable with South African inmates.