情绪对跨期决策的影响：来自单维占优模型的解释

跨期决策的研究表明, 积极情绪和消极情绪状态下的跨期决策行为存在显著差异。本研究从单维占优模型的角度, 揭示情绪影响跨期决策的过程机制。实验1通过诱发被试的积极和消极情绪, 发现积极情绪下被试的时间折扣率更低, 有更强的选择延迟选项的倾向。实验2运用“模拟天平任务”测量了跨期决策时的维度间差异比较, 检验单维占优模型对情绪影响跨期决策的解释性。结果发现, 维度间差异比较在情绪对跨期决策的影响中起中介作用。实验3a和实验3b分别运用时间和金钱启动策略操纵维度间差异比较过程, 再次验证单维占优模型的解释作用。 结果发现, 情绪对跨期决策的效应随着时间和金钱的启动而消失, 进一步支持了维度间差异比较的中介作用。本研究从决策过程的角度, 揭示了情绪影响跨期决策的心理机制, 并进一步为单维占优模型对跨期决策行为的解释性增加了支持性证据。     

吃亏是福：择“值”选项而获真利

主流决策理论认为人们当遵从个人利益最大化原则, 基于“价” (value)做选择—— 挑选能直接给自己带来最大获益的选项。但决策者实际上经常会基于“值” (worth)做选择—— 挑选令自己当下吃亏或损失的选项, 并认为“值得”。为探索选择吃亏的选项究竟“值”在何处, 研究1利用情境实验操纵“基于‘值’选择”, 发现选择表面吃亏的“值”选项反而能给个体带来更大的延迟获益。研究2a采用归纳法, 确定了吃亏选项会在“惠、善、义、法” 4个潜在维度上被决策者赋予更大的“值”; 研究2b利用测量4个潜在维度的情境测验, 以销售群体的销售绩效和主观幸福感为真实获益的衡量指标, 验证了“基于‘值’选择”与现实生活中的物质和精神获益间存在正向的线性预测关系。研究首次为中国文化中的“吃亏是福”提供了实证证据的支持, 揭示诱使人们选择吃亏选项的是“后福”—— 赋在潜在维度上的延迟获益。     

跨期决策是基于选项还是基于维度?

跨期决策有许多不同的理论模型,按其所指信息加工过程,可以分成基于选项的和基于维度的两类决策模型。前者认为各跨期选项被独立赋予一个主观价值,主观价值最大的选项被选择;而后者则认为选项是基于维度被比较的,比较中占优势的选项被选择。本文从行为结果、过程数据和对基于选项模型基本假设的质疑等角度综述了近来支持基于维度模型的证据;并提出未来需要进一步应用认知行为实验和眼动追踪技术对两类模型进行过程研究、在基于维度模型的指导下进行f MRI研究,以及加强损失领域的跨期决策研究以完善跨期决策模型。     

跨期决策中的维度差异偏好：眼动证据

在跨期决策研究领域,虽然基于维度的跨期模型得到了一些源自结果检验和过程检验的证据支持,但此类模型所假设的维度间差异比较的心理过程尚缺乏直接的过程证据。本研究通过两个眼动实验,系统考察了相关眼动指标对维度差异偏好的预测效应。结果发现,根据基于维度的权衡模型可有效拟合出个体在跨期决策中的维度差异偏好,并且反应时、眼跳注视熵和静态注视熵等指标均与维度差异偏好负相关,而基于维度的注意分配与维度差异判断正相关。这些研究发现支持了本研究所提出的跨期眼动模型的相关假设,证实了维度差异偏好与跨期决策的认知加工过程之间的联系,为基于维度的跨期模型提供了更直接的过程证据,并为今后跨期决策的眼动模型发展指明了新方向。     

“时间折扣”还是“单维占优”?——跨期决策的心理机制

为探索跨期决策的心理机制,本研究利用加工分离程序范式,检验了跨期决策过程的主导策略究竟是分析系统的时间折扣策略还是启发式系统的单维占优策略。3个实验分别操纵了决策目标、认知负荷和策略启动因素,实验结果一致性地发现:能够影响分析系统策略的决策目标和策略启动因素没有导致分析系统策略贡献率的变化,能够影响启发式系统策略的认知负荷和策略启动因素导致了启发式系统策略贡献率的变化。研究结果支持启发式系统的单维占优策略在跨期决策中起作用的假设,但不支持分析系统的时间折扣策略起作用的假设。本研究或能加深人们对跨期决策心理机制的理解,并为建立、健全与跨期决策相关的政策、法律、法规提供理论支持和帮助。     

类别型状态不确定独立否定句的加工机制：来自眼动实验的证据

探讨类别型状态不确定独立否定句(如“裙子不是蓝色的”)的动态表征过程。实验1和实验2分别仅给被试提供“与事件备择选项一致的图片” (红色裙子)和“含有否定标签的与事件否定状态一致的图片” (含有否定标签的蓝色裙子); 实验3同时提供以上两种选项。结果发现：3个实验中被试在早期均对“与事件否定状态一致的图片”注视概率更高, 在晚期阶段, 实验1仅对“与事件备择选项一致的图片” 注视概率更高, 实验2和实验3均仅对“含有否定标签的与事件否定状态一致的图片”注视概率更高, 并且选择为事件的最终状态; 实验4的评定结果表明, 当被试有充裕时间完成任务时, 37名评定者中有30名选择“与事件备择选项一致的图片”为事件的最终状态。4个实验的结果为锚激活与限制满足模型和抑制假设提供了进一步证据。     

跨期选择损益不对称：从现象到心理机制

损益不对称是跨期选择中非常稳定的现象之一,即相对于收益,在损失跨期选择中,决策者表现出更小甚至是负的折扣率。过往研究一般仅是发现现象和探讨原因,而近来的研究开始检验损益不对称现象的心理机制。本文从损益结果效用的不对称性、延迟知觉的不对称性以及折扣不对称三方面总结了损益不对称心理机制研究的进展。最后,本文提出未来需要从损益结果可能的不同加工策略、损益序列比较和过程方法研究等方面加强研究。     

更优更耐心：质量结果对跨期选择的影响

跨期选择以往的研究集中于金钱数量结果。基于维度加工的模型,本文探究了在跨期选择中,人们面对质量差异的结果(如,今天的低配版手机还是六个月后的高配版手机)vs.相对应的金钱结果(如,今天的5000元还是六个月后的6000元)的选择偏好差异。3个实验结果表明：人们面对质量结果(相比于金钱结果)的跨期选择表现得更耐心,而这种现象是由于人们面对选择时在结果维度差异感知不同所致。与金钱结果跨期选择相同,质量结果跨期选择的心理加工过程同样遵循维度间差异比较。本研究为基于维度的跨期选择模型提供了新的证据。     

风险对两类跨期选择的影响：一项ERP研究

该研究利用ERP技术,采用伴随风险的跨期选择任务比较了两类跨期选择（立即vs.延迟、延迟vs.延迟）,并探究了风险（零风险、低风险、高风险）对两者跨期选择影响的神经动力学机制。ERP结果显示,对于立即vs.延迟和延迟vs.延迟,在N2和N400上前者大于后者,在LPC上后者大于前者;风险对两者在时程上的影响趋于一致。因此,其加工可能是先对奖赏在风险维度上进行折扣,再与延迟时间进行整合形成奖赏预期,而后做出选择。     

心理距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响

通过考察时间距离、社会距离和概率距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响, 探究跨期选择和风险选择心理过程的相似性, 并检验不同心理距离影响决策的相似性。结果发现, 无论是时间距离(实验1)、社会距离(实验2)、还是概率距离(实验3), 心理距离越远, 被试在跨期选择中越倾向于延迟选项, 在风险选择中越倾向于风险选项。研究认为, 在跨期选择和风险选择中, 选项的表征结构和选项整体评价时不同选项特征的相对权重具有相似性。随着心理距离增加, 与高识解相联系的金额特征的相对权重增加, 与低识解相联系的时间和概率特征的相对权重降低, 这使得被试更倾向于选择金额较大的延迟和风险选项。同时, 研究发现三类心理距离对两类决策有相似影响, 进一步验证了不同心理距离的本质相似性。     

Effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice

The effects of self–other decision-making on intertemporal choice have been revealed in many studies using a monetary outcome. However, the outcome of intertemporal choice is not restricted to money; time is also a scarce and nonrenewable resource outcome. Thus, we conducted a series of experiments to address the effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice, a type of intertemporal choice that uses time as an outcome. Over the course of three experiments, differences in self–other decision-making were evidenced. Participants who made decisions for others were more likely to prefer the smaller but sooner (SS) option over the larger but later (LL) option and considered the gain of the SS option to be significantly greater than that of the LL option. Participants who made decisions for themselves were likely to prefer the LL option over the SS option. However, they considered the gains of the LL and the SS option to be indifferent. Changing the role of decision-making could affect the ability of individuals to consider the future consequences of their decisions. The effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice could be explained by the accounts of economic reasoning and construal level theory. The findings indicated that the effects of self–other decision-making on time-based intertemporal choice, which could be generated simply by rewording questions, can help individuals make optimal long-term choices without the need for increased control.     

自我控制资源水平及其变化对跨期选择的影响

自我控制资源（SCR）是个体执行自我控制活动时所需的有限心理资源,本文通过两项实验探讨个体的SCR水平与SCR变化对跨期选择的影响。结果发现：（1）控制知觉加工组和控制想法组在执行SCR操作任务后,其整体SCR下降,SS偏好增强;（2）控制知觉加工组的SCR降幅和SS偏好增幅均显著高于控制想法组;（3）SCR下降的被试在后测SS偏好和SS偏好增幅上都显著高于SCR不变和上升的被试,但SCR上升被试与不变被试的差异不显著。与以往研究相比,本研究采用了个体水平分析思路,揭示了个体SCR变化方向与跨期偏好的关系,并发现了两种SCR操作任务的效应差异。     

Building blocks of self-control: increased tolerance for delay with bundled rewards

Impulsive choice can be defined as temporary preference for a smaller-sooner reward (SS) over a larger-later reward (LL). Hyperbolic discounting implies that impulsive choices will occur less when organisms choose between a series of SSs versus LLs all at once than when they choose between single SS versus LL pairs. Eight rats were exposed to two conditions of an intertemporal choice paradigm using sucrose solution as reward. In both conditions, the LL was 150 microl delayed by 3 s, while the SS was an immediate reward that ranged from 25-150 microl across sessions. Preference for the LL was greater when the chosen reward was automatically delivered three times in succession (bundled) than when it was chosen singly and delivered after each choice. For each of the 8 rats, the estimated SS amount that produced indifference was higher in the bundled condition than in the single condition. Because bundling in humans may be based on the perception that one's current choice is predictive of future choices, the data presented here may demonstrate an important building block of self-control.     

Anxiety and intertemporal decision making: The effect of the behavioral inhibition system and the moderation effects of trait anxiety on both state anxiety and socioeconomic status

Based on Gray's theory, which links the behavioral inhibition motivation system (BIS) to the personality trait of “anxiety”, the present study examined whether anxiety (trait vs. state), BIS sensitivity, and family socioeconomic status in childhood (SES) had an interactive or independent impact on intertemporal decision-making processes. The study also investigated whether participants with high trait anxiety had a significantly different choice preference on the immediate but smaller (SS) rewards over the larger but delayed (LL) rewards. Participants (N = 108) were randomly assigned to either the anxiety or the control condition. Results showed that people with a higher BIS score tended to choose less SS rewards. Trait anxiety was found to moderate both state anxiety and childhood SES to influence intertemporal decision processes. We further found high or low trait anxiety significantly influenced people's choice preference. Speculations on the psychological meanings of the findings were discussed from the perspective of biased risk perception. Limitations and implications were also discussed.     

Testing the effect of risk on intertemporal choice in the Chinese cultural context

Previous studies using Western samples have found that introducing uncertainty to an intertemporal choice decreases the degree of discounting future rewards. The authors of this article examined the effect of risk on intertemporal choice using Chinese participants and found that respondents preferred the smaller but sooner (SS) outcome to the larger but later (LL) one in the presence of risk, which indicates that risk increases rather than decreases the degree of discounting future rewards. Thus, variations in response patterns between different cultural groups suggest that culture may play an important role in intertemporal choice and researchers should delve into this topic from an emic rather than an etic perspective.     

负折扣现象:跨期决策中的自我-他人决策差异

负折扣现象作为一种违背时间折扣假定的现象越来越多地引起研究者关注。本文通过两种指标考察了为自己决策和为他人决策在负折扣现象上的差异。实验1运用二择一选择范式考察人们在为自己决策和为他人决策时对于何时发生负性事件的时间偏好。结果发现,相比较于为他人决策,为自己决策时被试更倾向于选择早些发生负性事件,即更容易产生负折扣现象。实验2运用测量时间折扣率的经典范式考察了人们在为自己决策和为他人决策时的时间折扣率。结果发现,为自己决策时比为他人决策时的时间折扣率更小,更容易出现负折扣率。总体结果表明,为自己决策比为他人决策更容易出现负折扣现象。从情绪卷入的角度看,我们推测,为自己决策时由于更多的预期负性情绪卷入,从而导致更容易产生负折扣现象。     

Elevated outcome-anticipation and outcome-evaluation ERPs associated with a greater preference for larger-but-delayed rewards

Although waiting for a reward reduces or discounts its value, some people have a stronger tendency to wait for larger rewards and forgo smaller-but-immediate rewards. This ability to delay gratification is captured by individual differences in so-called intertemporal choices in which individuals are asked to choose between larger-but-delayed versus smaller-but-immediate rewards. The current study used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine whether enhancement in two neurocognitive processes, outcome anticipation and outcome evaluation, modulate individual variability in intertemporal responses. After completing a behavioral intertemporal choice task, 34 participants performed an ERP gambling task. From this ERP task, we separately examined individual differences in outcome anticipation (stimulus-preceding negativity; SPN), early outcome valuation (feedback-related negativity; FRN), and late outcome evaluation (P3). We observed that both elevated outcome-anticipation (SPN) and late outcome-evaluation (P3) neural processes predicted a stronger preference toward larger-but-delayed rewards. No relationship was observed between intertemporal responses and early outcome evaluation (FRN), indicating that the relationship between outcome evaluation and intertemporal responses was specific to the late outcome-evaluation processing stream. Moreover, multiple regression analyses indicated that the SPN and P3 independently modulate individual differences in intertemporal responses, suggesting separate mechanisms underlie the relationship between these two neurocognitive processes and intertemporal responses. Accordingly, we identify two potential neurocognitive modulators of individual variability in intertemporal responses. We discuss the mechanisms underlying these modulators in terms of anticipation-related processing (SPN) and a saliency bias toward gain (compared to loss) outcomes (P3).